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In Allefeld & Kurths [2004], we introduced an approach to multivariate phase synchronization analysis in the form of a Synchronization Cluster Analysis (SCA). A statistical model of a synchronization cluster was described, and an abbreviated instruction on how to apply this model to empirical data was given, while an implementation of the corresponding algorithm was (and is) available from the authors. In this letter, the complete details on how the data analysis algorithm is to be derived from the model are filled in.
The separation of natural and anthropogenically caused climatic changes is an important task of contemporary climate research. For this purpose, a detailed knowledge of the natural variability of the climate during warm stages is a necessary prerequisite. Beside model simulations and historical documents, this knowledge is mostly derived from analyses of so-called climatic proxy data like tree rings or sediment as well as ice cores. In order to be able to appropriately interpret such sources of palaeoclimatic information, suitable approaches of statistical modelling as well as methods of time series analysis are necessary, which are applicable to short, noisy, and non-stationary uni- and multivariate data sets. Correlations between different climatic proxy data within one or more climatological archives contain significant information about the climatic change on longer time scales. Based on an appropriate statistical decomposition of such multivariate time series, one may estimate dimensions in terms of the number of significant, linear independent components of the considered data set. In the presented work, a corresponding approach is introduced, critically discussed, and extended with respect to the analysis of palaeoclimatic time series. Temporal variations of the resulting measures allow to derive information about climatic changes. For an example of trace element abundances and grain-size distributions obtained near the Cape Roberts (Eastern Antarctica), it is shown that the variability of the dimensions of the investigated data sets clearly correlates with the Oligocene/Miocene transition about 24 million years before present as well as regional deglaciation events. Grain-size distributions in sediments give information about the predominance of different transportation as well as deposition mechanisms. Finite mixture models may be used to approximate the corresponding distribution functions appropriately. In order to give a complete description of the statistical uncertainty of the parameter estimates in such models, the concept of asymptotic uncertainty distributions is introduced. The relationship with the mutual component overlap as well as with the information missing due to grouping and truncation of the measured data is discussed for a particular geological example. An analysis of a sequence of grain-size distributions obtained in Lake Baikal reveals that there are certain problems accompanying the application of finite mixture models, which cause an extended climatological interpretation of the results to fail. As an appropriate alternative, a linear principal component analysis is used to decompose the data set into suitable fractions whose temporal variability correlates well with the variations of the average solar insolation on millenial to multi-millenial time scales. The abundance of coarse-grained material is obviously related to the annual snow cover, whereas a significant fraction of fine-grained sediments is likely transported from the Taklamakan desert via dust storms in the spring season.
This Thesis was devoted to the study of the coupled system composed by El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Annual Cycle. More precisely, the work was focused on two main problems: 1. How to separate both oscillations into an affordable model for understanding the behaviour of the whole system. 2. How to model the system in order to achieve a better understanding of the interaction, as well as to predict future states of the system. We focused our efforts in the Sea Surface Temperature equations, considering that atmospheric effects were secondary to the ocean dynamics. The results found may be summarised as follows: 1. Linear methods are not suitable for characterising the dimensionality of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Therefore they do not help to separate the oscillations by themselves. Instead, nonlinear methods of dimensionality reduction are proven to be better in defining a lower limit for the dimensionality of the system as well as in explaining the statistical results in a more physical way [1]. In particular, Isomap, a nonlinear modification of Multidimensional Scaling methods, provides a physically appealing method of decomposing the data, as it substitutes the euclidean distances in the manifold by an approximation of the geodesic distances. We expect that this method could be successfully applied to other oscillatory extended systems and, in particular, to meteorological systems. 2. A three dimensional dynamical system could be modeled, using a backfitting algorithm, for describing the dynamics of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. We observed that, although there were few data points available, we could predict future behaviours of the coupled ENSO-Annual Cycle system with an accuracy of less than six months, although the constructed system presented several drawbacks: few data points to input in the backfitting algorithm, untrained model, lack of forcing with external data and simplification using a close system. Anyway, ensemble prediction techniques showed that the prediction skills of the three dimensional time series were as good as those found in much more complex models. This suggests that the climatological system in the tropics is mainly explained by ocean dynamics, while the atmosphere plays a secondary role in the physics of the process. Relevant predictions for short lead times can be made using a low dimensional system, despite its simplicity. The analysis of the SST data suggests that nonlinear interaction between the oscillations is small, and that noise plays a secondary role in the fundamental dynamics of the oscillations [2]. A global view of the work shows a general procedure to face modeling of climatological systems. First, we should find a suitable method of either linear or nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Then, low dimensional time series could be extracted out of the method applied. Finally, a low dimensional model could be found using a backfitting algorithm in order to predict future states of the system.
In view of the importance of charge storage in polymer electrets for electromechanical transducer applications, the aim of this work is to contribute to the understanding of the charge-retention mechanisms. Furthermore, we will try to explain how the long-term storage of charge carriers in polymeric electrets works and to identify the probable trap sites. Charge trapping and de-trapping processes were investigated in order to obtain evidence of the trap sites in polymeric electrets. The charge de-trapping behavior of two particular polymer electrets was studied by means of thermal and optical techniques. In order to obtain evidence of trapping or de-trapping, charge and dipole profiles in the thickness direction were also monitored. In this work, the study was performed on polyethylene terephthalate (PETP) and on cyclic-olefin copolymers (COCs). PETP is a photo-electret and contains a net dipole moment that is located in the carbonyl group (C = O). The electret behavior of PETP arises from both the dipole orientation and the charge storage. In contrast to PETP, COCs are not photo-electrets and do not exhibit a net dipole moment. The electret behavior of COCs arises from the storage of charges only. COC samples were doped with dyes in order to probe their internal electric field. COCs show shallow charge traps at 0.6 and 0.11 eV, characteristic for thermally activated processes. In addition, deep charge traps are present at 4 eV, characteristic for optically stimulated processes. PETP films exhibit a photo-current transient with a maximum that depends on the temperature with an activation energy of 0.106 eV. The pair thermalization length (rc) calculated from this activation energy for the photo-carrier generation in PETP was estimated to be approx. 4.5 nm. The generated photo-charge carriers can recombine, interact with the trapped charge, escape through the electrodes or occupy an empty trap. PETP possesses a small quasi-static pyroelectric coefficient (QPC): ~0.6 nC/(m²K) for unpoled samples, ~60 nC/(m²K) for poled samples and ~60 nC/(m²K) for unpoled samples under an electric bias (E ~10 V/µm). When stored charges generate an internal electric field of approx. 10 V/µm, they are able to induce a QPC comparable to that of the oriented dipoles. Moreover, we observe charge-dipole interaction. Since the raw data of the QPC-experiments on PETP samples is noisy, a numerical Fourier-filtering procedure was applied. Simulations show that the data analysis is reliable when the noise level is up to 3 times larger than the calculated pyroelectric current for the QPC. PETP films revealed shallow traps at approx. 0.36 eV during thermally-stimulated current measurements. These energy traps are associated with molecular dipole relaxations (C = O). On the other hand, photo-activated measurements yield deep charge traps at 4.1 and 5.2 eV. The observed wavelengths belong to the transitions in PETP that are analogous to the π - π* benzene transitions. The observed charge de-trapping selectivity in the photocharge decay indicates that the charge detrapping is from a direct photon-charge interaction. Additionally, the charge de-trapping can be facilitated by photo-exciton generation and the interaction of the photo-excitons with trapped charge carriers. These results indicate that the benzene rings (C6H4) and the dipolar groups (C = O) can stabilize and share an extra charge carrier in a chemical resonance. In this way, this charge could be de-trapped in connection with the photo-transitions of the benzene ring and with the dipole relaxations. The thermally-activated charge release shows a difference in the trap depth to its optical counterpart. This difference indicates that the trap levels depend on the de-trapping process and on the chemical nature of the trap site. That is, the processes of charge detrapping from shallow traps are related to secondary forces. The processes of charge de-trapping from deep traps are related to primary forces. Furthermore, the presence of deep trap levels causes the stability of the charge for long periods of time.
Uncertainty about the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the Earth’s radiative balance constitutes a primary source of uncertainty for climate projections. Given the continuous increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, constraining the uncertainty range in such type of sensitivity is of vital importance. A common measure for expressing this key characteristic for climate models is the climate sensitivity, defined as the simulated change in global-mean equilibrium temperature resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. The broad range of climate sensitivity estimates (1.5-4.5°C as given in the last Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001), inferred from comprehensive climate models, illustrates that the strength of simulated feedback mechanisms varies strongly among different models. The central goal of this thesis is to constrain uncertainty in climate sensitivity. For this objective we first generate a large ensemble of model simulations, covering different feedback strengths, and then request their consistency with present-day observational data and proxy-data from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Our analyses are based on an ensemble of fully-coupled simulations, that were realized with a climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2). These model versions cover a broad range of different climate sensitivities, ranging from 1.3 to 5.5°C, and have been generated by simultaneously perturbing a set of 11 model parameters. The analysis of the simulated model feedbacks reveals that the spread in climate sensitivity results from different realizations of the feedback strengths in water vapour, clouds, lapse rate and albedo. The calculated spread in the sum of all feedbacks spans almost the entire plausible range inferred from a sampling of more complex models. We show that the requirement for consistency between simulated pre-industrial climate and a set of seven global-mean data constraints represents a comparatively weak test for model sensitivity (the data constrain climate sensitivity to 1.3-4.9°C). Analyses of the simulated latitudinal profile and of the seasonal cycle suggest that additional present-day data constraints, based on these characteristics, do not further constrain uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The novel approach presented in this thesis consists in systematically combining a large set of LGM simulations with data information from reconstructed regional glacial cooling. Irrespective of uncertainties in model parameters and feedback strengths, the set of our model versions reveals a close link between the simulated warming due to a doubling of CO2, and the cooling obtained for the LGM. Based on this close relationship between past and future temperature evolution, we define a method (based on linear regression) that allows us to estimate robust 5-95% quantiles for climate sensitivity. We thus constrain the range of climate sensitivity to 1.3-3.5°C using proxy-data from the LGM at low and high latitudes. Uncertainties in glacial radiative forcing enlarge this estimate to 1.2-4.3°C, whereas the assumption of large structural uncertainties may increase the upper limit by an additional degree. Using proxy-based data constraints for tropical and Antarctic cooling we show that very different absolute temperature changes in high and low latitudes all yield very similar estimates of climate sensitivity. On the whole, this thesis highlights that LGM proxy-data information can offer an effective means of constraining the uncertainty range in climate sensitivity and thus underlines the potential of paleo-climatic data to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections.
We demonstrate that a multiple delayed feedback is a powerful tool to control coherence properties of autonomous self-sustained oscillators. We derive the equation for the phase dynamics in presence of noise and delay, and analyze it analytically. In Gaussian approximation a closed set of equations for the frequency and the diffusion constant is obtained. Solutions of these equations are in good agreement with direct numerical simulations.
The primary objective of this work was to develop a laser source for fundamental investigations in the field of laser – materials interactions. In particular it is supposed to facilitate the study of the influence of the temporal energy distribution such as the interaction between adjacent pulses on ablation processes. Therefore, the aim was to design a laser with a highly flexible and easily controllable temporal energy distribution. The laser to meet these demands is an SBS-laser with optional active mode-locking. The nonlinear reflectivity of the SBS-mirror leads to a passive Q-switching and issues ns-pulse bursts with µs spacing. The pulse train parameters such as pulse duration, pulse spacing, pulse energy and number of pulses within a burst can be individually adjusted by tuning the pump parameters and the starting conditions for the laser. Another feature of the SBS-reflection is phase conjugation, which leads to an excellent beam quality thanks to the compensation of phase distortions. Transverse fundamental mode operation and a beam quality better than 1.4 times diffraction limited can be maintained for average output powers of up to 10 W. In addition to the dynamics on a ns-timescale described above, a defined splitting up of each ns-pulse into a train of ps-pulses can be achieved by additional active mode-locking. This twofold temporal focussing of the intensity leads to single pulse energies of up to 2 mJ at pulse durations of approximately 400 ps which corresponds to a pulse peak power of 5 MW. While the pulse duration is of the same order of magnitude as those of other passively Q-switched lasers with simultaneous mode-locking, the pulse energy and pulse peak power exceeds the values of these systems found in the literature by an order of magnitude. To the best of my knowledge the laser presented here is the first implementation of a self-starting mode-locked SBS-laser oscillator. In order to gain a better understanding and control of the transient output of the laser two complementary numerical models were developed. The first is based on laser rate equations which are solved for each laser mode individually while the mode-locking dynamics are calculated from the resultant transient spectrum. The rate equations consider the mean photon densities in the resonator, therefore the propagation of the light inside the resonator is not properly displayed. The second model, in contrast, introduces a spatial resolution of the resonator and hence the propagation inside the resonator can more accurately be considered. Consequently, a mismatch between the loss modulation frequency and the resonator round trip time can be conceived. The model calculates all dynamics in the time domain and therefore the spectral influences such as the Stokes-shift have to be neglected. Both models achieve an excellent reproduction of the ns-dynamics that are generated by the SBS-Q-switch. Separately, each model fails to reproduce all aspects of the ps-dynamics of the SBS-laser in detail. This can be attributed to the complexity of the numerous physical processes involved in this system. But thanks to their complementary nature they provide a very useful tool for investigating the various influences on the dynamics of the mode-locked SBS-laser individually. These aspects can eventually be recomposed to give a complete picture of the mechanisms which govern the output dynamics. Among the aspects under scrutiny were in particular the start resonator quality which determines the starting condition for the SBS-Q-switch, the modulation depth of the AOM and the phonon lifetime as well as the Brillouin-frequency of the SBS-medium. The numerical simulations and the experiments have opened several doors inviting further investigations and promising a potential for further improvement of the experimental results: The results of the simulations in combination with the experimental results which determined the starting conditions for the simulations leave no doubt that the bandwidth generation can primarily be attributed to the SBS-Stokes-shift during the buildup of the Q-switch pulse. For each resonator round trip, bandwidth is generated by shifting a part of the revolving light in frequency. The magnitude of the frequency shift corresponds to the Brillouin-frequency which is a constant of the SBS material and amounts in the case of SF6 to 240 MHz. The modulation of the AOM merely provides an exchange of population between spectrally adjacent modes and therefore diminishes a modulation in the spectrum. By use of a material with a Brillouin-frequency in the GHz range the bandwidth generation can be considerably accelerated thereby shortening the pulse duration. Also, it was demonstrated that yet another nonlinear effect of the SBS can be exploited: If the phonon lifetime is short compared to the resonator round trip time we obtain a modulation in the SBS-reflectivity that supports the modulation of the AOM. The application of an external optical feedback by a conventional mirror turns out to be an alternative to the AOM in synchronizing the longitudinal resonator modes. The interesting feature about this system is that it is ― although highly complex in the physical processes and the temporal output dynamics ― very simple and inexpensive from a technical point of view. No expensive modulators and no control electronics are necessary. Finally, the numerical models constitute a powerful tool for the investigation of emission dynamics of complex laser systems on arbitrary timescales and can also display the spectral evolution of the laser output. In particular it could be demonstrated that differences in the results of the complementary models vanish for systems of lesser complexity.
We present experimental results showing the diffuse reflection of a Bose Einstein condensate from a rough mirror, consisting of a dielectric substrate supporting a blue-detuned evanescent wave. The scattering is anisotropic, more pronounced in the direction of the surface propagation of the evanescent wave. These results agree very well with theoretical predictions.
Atrial natriuretic peptides (ANP) and brain natriuretic peptides (BNP) are powerful neurohormonal indicators of left-ventricular function and prognosis in heart failure (HF). Chagas disease (CD) caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi. remains a major cause of HF in Latin America. We assessed whether the plasma concentration of the third natriuretic peptide, C-type natnuretic peptide (CNP), also has diagnostic and prognostic properties in patients with CD or other dilated cardiomyopathies (DCM). Blood samples were obtained from 66 patients with CD, 50 patients with DCM from other causes, and 30 gender- and age-matched healthy subjects. Patients were subdivided according to the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class. The CNP concentration was determined by radioimmunoassay (Immundiagnostik, Bensheim, Germany). The main duration of follow-up was 31.4 months (range 13 to 54 months), 19 patients had died and 11 patients received a heart transplant. CNP concentrations were only significantly altered in patients with DCM or CD of the NYHA classes III and IV (P < 0.05). The Pearson correlation of echocardiographic data with CNP revealed an association only with the left-ventricular end systolic volume (P = 0.03) in patients with DCM. Furthermore, CNP did not predict mortality or the necessity for heart transplant. Our data are the first to demonstrate the raised levels of the third natriuretic peptide CNP in CD and other DCM Whereas ANP and BNP have a high predictive value for mortality in both diseases, CNP is without any predictive potency.