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According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it.
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The overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has weakened in response to global warming, as predicted by climate models. Since it plays an important role in transporting heat, nutrients and carbon, a slowdown will affect global climate processes and the global mean temperature. Scientists have questioned whether this slowdown has worked to cool or warm global surface temperatures. This study analyses the overturning strength and global mean temperature evolution of the past decades and shows that a slowdown acts to reduce the global mean temperature. This is because a slower overturning means less water sinks into the deep ocean in the subpolar North Atlantic. As the surface waters are cold there, the sinking normally cools the deep ocean and thereby indirectly warms the surface, thus less sinking implies less surface warming and has a cooling effect. For the foreseeable future, this means that the slowing of the overturning will likely continue to slightly reduce the effect of the general warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
In classical thermodynamic processes the unavoidable presence of irreversibility, quantified by the entropy production, carries two energetic footprints: the reduction of extractable work from the optimal, reversible case, and the generation of a surplus of heat that is irreversibly dissipated to the environment. Recently it has been shown that in the quantum regime an additional quantum irreversibility occurs that is linked to decoherence into the energy basis. Here we employ quantum trajectories to construct distributions for classical heat and quantum heat exchanges, and show that the heat footprint of quantum irreversibility differs markedly from the classical case. We also quantify how quantum irreversibility reduces the amount of work that can be extracted from a state with coherences. Our results show that decoherence leads to both entropic and energetic footprints which both play an important role in the optimization of controlled quantum operations at low temperature.
In classical thermodynamics irreversibility occurs whenever a non-thermal system is brought into contact with a thermal environment. Using quantum trajectories the authors here establish two energetic footprints of quantum irreversible processes, and find that while quantum irreversibility leads to the occurrence of a quantum heat and a reduction of work production, the two are not linked in the same manner as the classical laws of thermodynamics would dictate.
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
We study properties of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) eigenmodes by decomposing the data of MHD simulations into linear MHD modes-namely, the Alfven, slow magnetosonic, and fast magnetosonic modes. We drive turbulence with a mixture of solenoidal and compressive driving while varying the Alfven Mach number (M-A), plasma beta, and the sonic Mach number from subsonic to transsonic. We find that the proportion of fast and slow modes in the mode mixture increases with increasing compressive forcing. This proportion of the magnetosonic modes can also become the dominant fraction in the mode mixture. The anisotropy of the modes is analyzed by means of their structure functions. The Alfven-mode anisotropy is consistent with the Goldreich-Sridhar theory. We find a transition from weak to strong Alfvenic turbulence as we go from low to high M-A. The slow-mode properties are similar to the Alfven mode. On the other hand, the isotropic nature of fast modes is verified in the cases where the fast mode is a significant fraction of the mode mixture. The fast-mode behavior does not show any transition in going from low to high M-A. We find indications that there is some interaction between the different modes, and the properties of the dominant mode can affect the properties of the weaker modes. This work identifies the conditions under which magnetosonic modes can be a major fraction of turbulent astrophysical plasmas, including the regime of weak turbulence. Important astrophysical implications for cosmic-ray transport and magnetic reconnection are discussed.
Inorganic perovskites with cesium (Cs+) as the cation have great potential as photovoltaic materials if their phase purity and stability can be addressed. Herein, a series of inorganic perovskites is studied, and it is found that the power conversion efficiency of solar cells with compositions CsPbI1.8Br1.2, CsPbI2.0Br1.0, and CsPbI2.2Br0.8 exhibits a high dependence on the initial annealing step that is found to significantly affect the crystallization and texture behavior of the final perovskite film. At its optimized annealing temperature, CsPbI1.8Br1.2 exhibits a pure orthorhombic phase and only one crystal orientation of the (110) plane. Consequently, this allows for the best efficiency of up to 14.6% and the longest operational lifetime, T-S80, of approximate to 300 h, averaged of over six solar cells, during the maximum power point tracking measurement under continuous light illumination and nitrogen atmosphere. This work provides essential progress on the enhancement of photovoltaic performance and stability of CsPbI3 - xBrx perovskite solar cells.
After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term.
Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
We report on the detection of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from the BL Lac objects KUV 00311-1938 and PKS 1440-389 with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). H.E.S.S. observations were accompanied or preceded by multiwavelength observations with Fermi/LAT, XRT and UVOT onboard the Swift satellite, and ATOM. Based on an extrapolation of the Fermi/LAT spectrum towards the VHE gamma-ray regime, we deduce a 95 per cent confidence level upper limit on the unknown redshift of KUV 00311-1938 of z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 of z < 0.53. When combined with previous spectroscopy results, the redshift of KUV 00311-1938 is constrained to 0.51 <= z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 to 0.14 (sic) z < 0.53.
Monolithic perovskite silicon tandem solar cells can overcome the theoretical efficiency limit of silicon solar cells. This requires an optimum bandgap, high quantum efficiency, and high stability of the perovskite. Herein, a silicon heterojunction bottom cell is combined with a perovskite top cell, with an optimum bandgap of 1.68 eV in planar p-i-n tandem configuration. A methylammonium-free FA(0.75)Cs(0.25)Pb(I0.8Br0.2)(3) perovskite with high Cs content is investigated for improved stability. A 10% molarity increase to 1.1 m of the perovskite precursor solution results in approximate to 75 nm thicker absorber layers and 0.7 mA cm(-2) higher short-circuit current density. With the optimized absorber, tandem devices reach a high fill factor of 80% and up to 25.1% certified efficiency. The unencapsulated tandem device shows an efficiency improvement of 2.3% (absolute) over 5 months, showing the robustness of the absorber against degradation. Moreover, a photoluminescence quantum yield analysis reveals that with adapted charge transport materials and surface passivation, along with improved antireflection measures, the high bandgap perovskite absorber has the potential for 30% tandem efficiency in the near future.
We study populations of globally coupled noisy rotators (oscillators with inertia) allowing a nonequilibrium transition from a desynchronized state to a synchronous one (with the nonvanishing order parameter). The newly developed analytical approaches resulted in solutions describing the synchronous state with constant order parameter for weakly inertial rotators, including the case of zero inertia, when the model is reduced to the Kuramoto model of coupled noise oscillators. These approaches provide also analytical criteria distinguishing supercritical and subcritical transitions to the desynchronized state and indicate the universality of such transitions in rotator ensembles. All the obtained analytical results are confirmed by the numerical ones, both by direct simulations of the large ensembles and by solution of the associated Fokker-Planck equation. We also propose generalizations of the developed approaches for setups where different rotators parameters (natural frequencies, masses, noise intensities, strengths and phase shifts in coupling) are dispersed.
We study the extremal properties of a stochastic process xt defined by the Langevin equation ẋₜ =√2Dₜ ξₜ, in which ξt is a Gaussian white noise with zero mean and Dₜ is a stochastic‘diffusivity’, defined as a functional of independent Brownian motion Bₜ.We focus on threechoices for the random diffusivity Dₜ: cut-off Brownian motion, Dₜt ∼ Θ(Bₜ), where Θ(x) is the Heaviside step function; geometric Brownian motion, Dₜ ∼ exp(−Bₜ); and a superdiffusive process based on squared Brownian motion, Dₜ ∼ B²ₜ. For these cases we derive exact expressions for the probability density functions of the maximal positive displacement and of the range of the process xₜ on the time interval ₜ ∈ (0, T).We discuss the asymptotic behaviours of the associated probability density functions, compare these against the behaviour of the corresponding properties of standard Brownian motion with constant diffusivity (Dₜ = D0) and also analyse the typical behaviour of the probability density functions which is observed for a majority of realisations of the stochastic diffusivity process.
We consider the first-passage problem for N identical independent particles that are initially released uniformly in a finite domain Ω and then diffuse toward a reactive area Γ, which can be part of the outer boundary of Ω or a reaction centre in the interior of Ω. For both cases of perfect and partial reactions, we obtain the explicit formulas for the first two moments of the fastest first-passage time (fFPT), i.e., the time when the first out of the N particles reacts with Γ. Moreover, we investigate the full probability density of the fFPT. We discuss a significant role of the initial condition in the scaling of the average fFPT with the particle number N, namely, a much stronger dependence (1/N and 1/N² for partially and perfectly reactive targets, respectively), in contrast to the well known inverse-logarithmic behaviour found when all particles are released from the same fixed point. We combine analytic solutions with scaling arguments and stochastic simulations to rationalise our results, which open new perspectives for studying the relevance of multiple searchers in various situations of molecular reactions, in particular, in living cells.
The passive and active motion of micron-sized tracer particles in crowded liquids and inside living biological cells is ubiquitously characterised by 'viscoelastic' anomalous diffusion, in which the increments of the motion feature long-ranged negative and positive correlations. While viscoelastic anomalous diffusion is typically modelled by a Gaussian process with correlated increments, so-called fractional Gaussian noise, an increasing number of systems are reported, in which viscoelastic anomalous diffusion is paired with non-Gaussian displacement distributions. Following recent advances in Brownian yet non-Gaussian diffusion we here introduce and discuss several possible versions of random-diffusivity models with long-ranged correlations. While all these models show a crossover from non-Gaussian to Gaussian distributions beyond some correlation time, their mean squared displacements exhibit strikingly different behaviours: depending on the model crossovers from anomalous to normal diffusion are observed, as well as a priori unexpected dependencies of the effective diffusion coefficient on the correlation exponent. Our observations of the non-universality of random-diffusivity viscoelastic anomalous diffusion are important for the analysis of experiments and a better understanding of the physical origins of 'viscoelastic yet non-Gaussian' diffusion.
We consider the emerging dynamics of a separable continuous time random walk (CTRW) in the case when the random walker is biased by a velocity field in a uniformly growing domain. Concrete examples for such domains include growing biological cells or lipid vesicles, biofilms and tissues, but also macroscopic systems such as expanding aquifers during rainy periods, or the expanding Universe. The CTRW in this study can be subdiffusive, normal diffusive or superdiffusive, including the particular case of a Lévy flight. We first consider the case when the velocity field is absent. In the subdiffusive case, we reveal an interesting time dependence of the kurtosis of the particle probability density function. In particular, for a suitable parameter choice, we find that the propagator, which is fat tailed at short times, may cross over to a Gaussian-like propagator. We subsequently incorporate the effect of the velocity field and derive a bi-fractional diffusion-advection equation encoding the time evolution of the particle distribution. We apply this equation to study the mixing kinetics of two diffusing pulses, whose peaks move towards each other under the action of velocity fields acting in opposite directions. This deterministic motion of the peaks, together with the diffusive spreading of each pulse, tends to increase particle mixing, thereby counteracting the peak separation induced by the domain growth. As a result of this competition, different regimes of mixing arise. In the case of Lévy flights, apart from the non-mixing regime, one has two different mixing regimes in the long-time limit, depending on the exact parameter choice: in one of these regimes, mixing is mainly driven by diffusive spreading, while in the other mixing is controlled by the velocity fields acting on each pulse. Possible implications for encounter–controlled reactions in real systems are discussed.
Stochastic models based on random diffusivities, such as the diffusing-diffusivity approach, are popular concepts for the description of non-Gaussian diffusion in heterogeneous media. Studies of these models typically focus on the moments and the displacement probability density function. Here we develop the complementary power spectral description for a broad class of random-diffusivity processes. In our approach we cater for typical single particle tracking data in which a small number of trajectories with finite duration are garnered. Apart from the diffusing-diffusivity model we study a range of previously unconsidered random-diffusivity processes, for which we obtain exact forms of the probability density function. These new processes are different versions of jump processes as well as functionals of Brownian motion. The resulting behaviour subtly depends on the specific model details. Thus, the central part of the probability density function may be Gaussian or non-Gaussian, and the tails may assume Gaussian, exponential, log-normal, or even power-law forms. For all these models we derive analytically the moment-generating function for the single-trajectory power spectral density. We establish the generic 1/f²-scaling of the power spectral density as function of frequency in all cases. Moreover, we establish the probability density for the amplitudes of the random power spectral density of individual trajectories. The latter functions reflect the very specific properties of the different random-diffusivity models considered here. Our exact results are in excellent agreement with extensive numerical simulations.
The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is a stationary and ergodic Gaussian process, that is fully determined by its covariance function and mean. We show here that the generic definitions of the ensemble- and time-averaged mean squared displacements fail to capture these properties consistently, leading to a spurious ergodicity breaking. We propose to remedy this failure by redefining the mean squared displacements such that they reflect unambiguously the statistical properties of any stochastic process. In particular we study the effect of the initial condition in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and its fractional extension. For the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process representing typical experimental situations in crowded environments such as living biological cells, we show that the stationarity of the process delicately depends on the initial condition.
This work focuses on the dynamics of particles in a confined geometry with position-dependent diffusivity, where the confinement is modelled by a periodic channel consisting of unit cells connected by narrow passage ways. We consider three functional forms for the diffusivity, corresponding to the scenarios of a constant (D ₀), as well as a low (D ₘ) and a high (D d) mobility diffusion in cell centre of the longitudinally symmetric cells. Due to the interaction among the diffusivity, channel shape and external force, the system exhibits complex and interesting phenomena. By calculating the probability density function, mean velocity and mean first exit time with the Itô calculus form, we find that in the absence of external forces the diffusivity D d will redistribute particles near the channel wall, while the diffusivity D ₘ will trap them near the cell centre. The superposition of external forces will break their static distributions. Besides, our results demonstrate that for the diffusivity D d, a high dependence on the x coordinate (parallel with the central channel line) will improve the mean velocity of the particles. In contrast, for the diffusivity D ₘ, a weak dependence on the x coordinate will dramatically accelerate the moving speed. In addition, it shows that a large external force can weaken the influences of different diffusivities; inversely, for a small external force, the types of diffusivity affect significantly the particle dynamics. In practice, one can apply these results to achieve a prominent enhancement of the particle transport in two- or three-dimensional channels by modulating the local tracer diffusivity via an engineered gel of varying porosity or by adding a cold tube to cool down the diffusivity along the central line, which may be a relevant effect in engineering applications. Effects of different stochastic calculi in the evaluation of the underlying multiplicative stochastic equation for different physical scenarios are discussed.