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The near-Earth space environment is a highly complex system comprised of several regions and particle populations hazardous to satellite operations. The trapped particles in the radiation belts and ring current can cause significant damage to satellites during space weather events, due to deep dielectric and surface charging. Closer to Earth is another important region, the ionosphere, which delays the propagation of radio signals and can adversely affect navigation and positioning. In response to fluctuations in solar and geomagnetic activity, both the inner-magnetospheric and ionospheric populations can undergo drastic and sudden changes within minutes to hours, which creates a challenge for predicting their behavior. Given the increasing reliance of our society on satellite technology, improving our understanding and modeling of these populations is a matter of paramount importance.
In recent years, numerous spacecraft have been launched to study the dynamics of particle populations in the near-Earth space, transforming it into a data-rich environment. To extract valuable insights from the abundance of available observations, it is crucial to employ advanced modeling techniques, and machine learning methods are among the most powerful approaches available. This dissertation employs long-term satellite observations to analyze the processes that drive particle dynamics, and builds interdisciplinary links between space physics and machine learning by developing new state-of-the-art models of the inner-magnetospheric and ionospheric particle dynamics.
The first aim of this thesis is to investigate the behavior of electrons in Earth's radiation belts and ring current. Using ~18 years of electron flux observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS), we developed the first machine learning model of hundreds-of-keV electron flux at Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) that is driven solely by solar wind and geomagnetic indices and does not require auxiliary flux measurements as inputs. We then proceeded to analyze the directional distributions of electrons, and for the first time, used Fourier sine series to fit electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in Earth's inner magnetosphere. We performed a superposed epoch analysis of 129 geomagnetic storms during the Van Allen Probes era and demonstrated that electron PADs have a strong energy-dependent response to geomagnetic activity. Additionally, we showed that the solar wind dynamic pressure could be used as a good predictor of the PAD dynamics. Using the observed dependencies, we created the first PAD model with a continuous dependence on L, magnetic local time (MLT) and activity, and developed two techniques to reconstruct near-equatorial electron flux observations from low-PA data using this model.
The second objective of this thesis is to develop a novel model of the topside ionosphere. To achieve this goal, we collected observations from five of the most widely used ionospheric missions and intercalibrated these data sets. This allowed us to use these data jointly for model development, validation, and comparison with other existing empirical models. We demonstrated, for the first time, that ion density observations by Swarm Langmuir Probes exhibit overestimation (up to ~40-50%) at low and mid-latitudes on the night side, and suggested that the influence of light ions could be a potential cause of this overestimation. To develop the topside model, we used 19 years of radio occultation (RO) electron density profiles, which were fitted with a Chapman function with a linear dependence of scale height on altitude. This approximation yields 4 parameters, namely the peak density and height of the F2-layer and the slope and intercept of the linear scale height trend, which were modeled using feedforward neural networks (NNs). The model was extensively validated against both RO and in-situ observations and was found to outperform the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model by up to an order of magnitude. Our analysis showed that the most substantial deviations of the IRI model from the data occur at altitudes of 100-200 km above the F2-layer peak. The developed NN-based ionospheric model reproduces the effects of various physical mechanisms observed in the topside ionosphere and provides highly accurate electron density predictions.
This dissertation provides an extensive study of geospace dynamics, and the main results of this work contribute to the improvement of models of plasma populations in the near-Earth space environment.
The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120-600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.
The Earth's inner magnetosphere is a very dynamic system, mostly driven by the external solar wind forcing exerted upon the magnetic field of our planet. Disturbances in the solar wind, such as coronal mass ejections and co-rotating interaction regions, cause geomagnetic storms, which lead to prominent changes in charged particle populations of the inner magnetosphere - the plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts. Satellites operating in the regions of elevated energetic and relativistic electron fluxes can be damaged by deep dielectric or surface charging during severe space weather events. Predicting the dynamics of the charged particles and mitigating their effects on the infrastructure is of particular importance, due to our increasing reliance on space technologies.
The dynamics of particles in the plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts are strongly coupled by means of collisions and collisionless interactions with electromagnetic fields induced by the motion of charged particles. Multidimensional numerical models simplify the treatment of transport, acceleration, and loss processes of these particles, and allow us to predict how the near-Earth space environment responds to solar storms. The models inevitably rely on a number of simplifications and assumptions that affect model accuracy and complicate the interpretation of the results. In this dissertation, we quantify the processes that control electron dynamics in the inner magnetosphere, paying particular attention to the uncertainties of the employed numerical codes and tools.
We use a set of convenient analytical solutions for advection and diffusion equations to test the accuracy and stability of the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-4D) code. We show that numerical schemes implemented in the code converge to the analytical solutions and that the VERB-4D code demonstrates stable behavior independent of the assumed time step. The order of the numerical scheme for the convection equation is demonstrated to affect results of ring current and radiation belt simulations, and it is crucially important to use high-order numerical schemes to decrease numerical errors in the model.
Using the thoroughly tested VERB-4D code, we model the dynamics of the ring current electrons during the 17 March 2013 storm. The discrepancies between the model and observations above 4.5 Earth's radii can be explained by uncertainties in the outer boundary conditions. Simulation results indicate that the electrons were transported from the geostationary orbit towards the Earth by the global-scale electric and magnetic fields.
We investigate how simulation results depend on the input models and parameters. The model is shown to be particularly sensitive to the global electric field and electron lifetimes below 4.5 Earth's radii. The effects of radial diffusion and subauroral polarization streams are also quantified.
We developed a data-assimilative code that blends together a convection model of energetic electron transport and loss and Van Allen Probes satellite data by means of the Kalman filter. We show that the Kalman filter can correct model uncertainties in the convection electric field, electron lifetimes, and boundary conditions. It is also demonstrated how the innovation vector - the difference between observations and model prediction - can be used to identify physical processes missing in the model of energetic electron dynamics.
We computed radial profiles of phase space density of ultrarelativistic electrons, using Van Allen Probes measurements. We analyze the shape of the profiles during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed times and show that the formation of new local minimums in the radial profiles coincides with the ground observations of electromagnetic ion-cyclotron (EMIC) waves. This correlation indicates that EMIC waves are responsible for the loss of ultrarelativistic electrons from the heart of the outer radiation belt into the Earth's atmosphere.
Pitch Angle Scattering of Sub-MeV Relativistic Electrons by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves
(2019)
Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves have long been considered to be a significant loss mechanism for relativistic electrons. This has most often been attributed to resonant interactions with the highest amplitude waves. But recent observations have suggested that the dominant energy of electrons precipitated to the atmosphere may often be relatively low, less than 1 MeV, whereas the minimum resonant energy of the highest amplitude waves is often greater than 2 MeV. Here we use relativistic electron test particle simulations in the wavefields of a hybrid code simulation of EMIC waves in dipole geometry in order to show that significant pitch angle scattering can occur due to interaction with low-amplitude short-wavelength EMIC waves. In the case we examined, these waves are in the H band (at frequencies above the He+ gyrofrequency), even though the highest amplitude waves were in the He band frequency range (below the He+ gyrofrequency). We also present wave power distributions for 29 EMIC simulations in straight magnetic field line geometry that show that the high wave number portion of the spectrum is in every case mostly due to the H band waves. Though He band waves are often associated with relativistic electron precipitation, it is possible that the He band waves do not directly scatter the sub-megaelectron volts (sub-MeV) electrons, but that the presence of He band waves is associated with high plasma density which lowers the minimum resonant energy so that these electrons can more easily resonate with the H band waves.