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According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it.
Social Media Abstract:
The overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has weakened in response to global warming, as predicted by climate models. Since it plays an important role in transporting heat, nutrients and carbon, a slowdown will affect global climate processes and the global mean temperature. Scientists have questioned whether this slowdown has worked to cool or warm global surface temperatures. This study analyses the overturning strength and global mean temperature evolution of the past decades and shows that a slowdown acts to reduce the global mean temperature. This is because a slower overturning means less water sinks into the deep ocean in the subpolar North Atlantic. As the surface waters are cold there, the sinking normally cools the deep ocean and thereby indirectly warms the surface, thus less sinking implies less surface warming and has a cooling effect. For the foreseeable future, this means that the slowing of the overturning will likely continue to slightly reduce the effect of the general warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
In classical thermodynamic processes the unavoidable presence of irreversibility, quantified by the entropy production, carries two energetic footprints: the reduction of extractable work from the optimal, reversible case, and the generation of a surplus of heat that is irreversibly dissipated to the environment. Recently it has been shown that in the quantum regime an additional quantum irreversibility occurs that is linked to decoherence into the energy basis. Here we employ quantum trajectories to construct distributions for classical heat and quantum heat exchanges, and show that the heat footprint of quantum irreversibility differs markedly from the classical case. We also quantify how quantum irreversibility reduces the amount of work that can be extracted from a state with coherences. Our results show that decoherence leads to both entropic and energetic footprints which both play an important role in the optimization of controlled quantum operations at low temperature.
In classical thermodynamics irreversibility occurs whenever a non-thermal system is brought into contact with a thermal environment. Using quantum trajectories the authors here establish two energetic footprints of quantum irreversible processes, and find that while quantum irreversibility leads to the occurrence of a quantum heat and a reduction of work production, the two are not linked in the same manner as the classical laws of thermodynamics would dictate.
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
We study properties of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) eigenmodes by decomposing the data of MHD simulations into linear MHD modes-namely, the Alfven, slow magnetosonic, and fast magnetosonic modes. We drive turbulence with a mixture of solenoidal and compressive driving while varying the Alfven Mach number (M-A), plasma beta, and the sonic Mach number from subsonic to transsonic. We find that the proportion of fast and slow modes in the mode mixture increases with increasing compressive forcing. This proportion of the magnetosonic modes can also become the dominant fraction in the mode mixture. The anisotropy of the modes is analyzed by means of their structure functions. The Alfven-mode anisotropy is consistent with the Goldreich-Sridhar theory. We find a transition from weak to strong Alfvenic turbulence as we go from low to high M-A. The slow-mode properties are similar to the Alfven mode. On the other hand, the isotropic nature of fast modes is verified in the cases where the fast mode is a significant fraction of the mode mixture. The fast-mode behavior does not show any transition in going from low to high M-A. We find indications that there is some interaction between the different modes, and the properties of the dominant mode can affect the properties of the weaker modes. This work identifies the conditions under which magnetosonic modes can be a major fraction of turbulent astrophysical plasmas, including the regime of weak turbulence. Important astrophysical implications for cosmic-ray transport and magnetic reconnection are discussed.
Inorganic perovskites with cesium (Cs+) as the cation have great potential as photovoltaic materials if their phase purity and stability can be addressed. Herein, a series of inorganic perovskites is studied, and it is found that the power conversion efficiency of solar cells with compositions CsPbI1.8Br1.2, CsPbI2.0Br1.0, and CsPbI2.2Br0.8 exhibits a high dependence on the initial annealing step that is found to significantly affect the crystallization and texture behavior of the final perovskite film. At its optimized annealing temperature, CsPbI1.8Br1.2 exhibits a pure orthorhombic phase and only one crystal orientation of the (110) plane. Consequently, this allows for the best efficiency of up to 14.6% and the longest operational lifetime, T-S80, of approximate to 300 h, averaged of over six solar cells, during the maximum power point tracking measurement under continuous light illumination and nitrogen atmosphere. This work provides essential progress on the enhancement of photovoltaic performance and stability of CsPbI3 - xBrx perovskite solar cells.
After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term.
Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
We report on the detection of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from the BL Lac objects KUV 00311-1938 and PKS 1440-389 with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). H.E.S.S. observations were accompanied or preceded by multiwavelength observations with Fermi/LAT, XRT and UVOT onboard the Swift satellite, and ATOM. Based on an extrapolation of the Fermi/LAT spectrum towards the VHE gamma-ray regime, we deduce a 95 per cent confidence level upper limit on the unknown redshift of KUV 00311-1938 of z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 of z < 0.53. When combined with previous spectroscopy results, the redshift of KUV 00311-1938 is constrained to 0.51 <= z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 to 0.14 (sic) z < 0.53.
Monolithic perovskite silicon tandem solar cells can overcome the theoretical efficiency limit of silicon solar cells. This requires an optimum bandgap, high quantum efficiency, and high stability of the perovskite. Herein, a silicon heterojunction bottom cell is combined with a perovskite top cell, with an optimum bandgap of 1.68 eV in planar p-i-n tandem configuration. A methylammonium-free FA(0.75)Cs(0.25)Pb(I0.8Br0.2)(3) perovskite with high Cs content is investigated for improved stability. A 10% molarity increase to 1.1 m of the perovskite precursor solution results in approximate to 75 nm thicker absorber layers and 0.7 mA cm(-2) higher short-circuit current density. With the optimized absorber, tandem devices reach a high fill factor of 80% and up to 25.1% certified efficiency. The unencapsulated tandem device shows an efficiency improvement of 2.3% (absolute) over 5 months, showing the robustness of the absorber against degradation. Moreover, a photoluminescence quantum yield analysis reveals that with adapted charge transport materials and surface passivation, along with improved antireflection measures, the high bandgap perovskite absorber has the potential for 30% tandem efficiency in the near future.
We study populations of globally coupled noisy rotators (oscillators with inertia) allowing a nonequilibrium transition from a desynchronized state to a synchronous one (with the nonvanishing order parameter). The newly developed analytical approaches resulted in solutions describing the synchronous state with constant order parameter for weakly inertial rotators, including the case of zero inertia, when the model is reduced to the Kuramoto model of coupled noise oscillators. These approaches provide also analytical criteria distinguishing supercritical and subcritical transitions to the desynchronized state and indicate the universality of such transitions in rotator ensembles. All the obtained analytical results are confirmed by the numerical ones, both by direct simulations of the large ensembles and by solution of the associated Fokker-Planck equation. We also propose generalizations of the developed approaches for setups where different rotators parameters (natural frequencies, masses, noise intensities, strengths and phase shifts in coupling) are dispersed.