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We study the Ollivier-Ricci curvature of graphs as a function of the chosen idleness. We show that this idleness function is concave and piecewise linear with at most three linear parts, and at most two linear parts in the case of a regular graph. We then apply our result to show that the idleness function of the Cartesian product of two regular graphs is completely determined by the idleness functions of the factors.
This is a brief survey of a constructive technique of analytic continuation related to an explicit integral formula of Golusin and Krylov (1933). It goes far beyond complex analysis and applies to the Cauchy problem for elliptic partial differential equations as well. As started in the classical papers, the technique is elaborated in generalised Hardy spaces also called Hardy-Smirnov spaces.
Nonlinear data assimilation
(2015)
This book contains two review articles on nonlinear data assimilation that deal with closely related topics but were written and can be read independently. Both contributions focus on so-called particle filters.
The first contribution by Jan van Leeuwen focuses on the potential of proposal densities. It discusses the issues with present-day particle filters and explorers new ideas for proposal densities to solve them, converging to particle filters that work well in systems of any dimension, closing the contribution with a high-dimensional example. The second contribution by Cheng and Reich discusses a unified framework for ensemble-transform particle filters. This allows one to bridge successful ensemble Kalman filters with fully nonlinear particle filters, and allows a proper introduction of localization in particle filters, which has been lacking up to now.
The motivation for this work was the question of reliability and robustness of seismic tomography. The problem is that many earth models exist which can describe the underlying ground motion records equally well. Most algorithms for reconstructing earth models provide a solution, but rarely quantify their variability. If there is no way to verify the imaged structures, an interpretation is hardly reliable. The initial idea was to explore the space of equivalent earth models using Bayesian inference. However, it quickly became apparent that the rigorous quantification of tomographic uncertainties could not be accomplished within the scope of a dissertation.
In order to maintain the fundamental concept of statistical inference, less complex problems from the geosciences are treated instead. This dissertation aims to anchor Bayesian inference more deeply in the geosciences and to transfer knowledge from applied mathematics. The underlying idea is to use well-known methods and techniques from statistics to quantify the uncertainties of inverse problems in the geosciences. This work is divided into three parts:
Part I introduces the necessary mathematics and should be understood as a kind of toolbox. With a physical application in mind, this section provides a compact summary of all methods and techniques used. The introduction of Bayesian inference makes the beginning. Then, as a special case, the focus is on regression with Gaussian processes under linear transformations. The chapters on the derivation of covariance functions and the approximation of non-linearities are discussed in more detail.
Part II presents two proof of concept studies in the field of seismology. The aim is to present the conceptual application of the introduced methods and techniques with moderate complexity. The example about traveltime tomography applies the approximation of non-linear relationships. The derivation of a covariance function using the wave equation is shown in the example of a damped vibrating string. With these two synthetic applications, a consistent concept for the quantification of modeling uncertainties has been developed.
Part III presents the reconstruction of the Earth's archeomagnetic field. This application uses the whole toolbox presented in Part I and is correspondingly complex. The modeling of the past 1000 years is based on real data and reliably quantifies the spatial modeling uncertainties. The statistical model presented is widely used and is under active development.
The three applications mentioned are intentionally kept flexible to allow transferability to similar problems. The entire work focuses on the non-uniqueness of inverse problems in the geosciences. It is intended to be of relevance to those interested in the concepts of Bayesian inference.
For linear inverse problems Y = A mu + zeta, it is classical to recover the unknown signal mu by iterative regularization methods ((mu) over cap,(m) = 0,1, . . .) and halt at a data-dependent iteration tau using some stopping rule, typically based on a discrepancy principle, so that the weak (or prediction) squared-error parallel to A((mu) over cap (()(tau)) - mu)parallel to(2) is controlled. In the context of statistical estimation with stochastic noise zeta, we study oracle adaptation (that is, compared to the best possible stopping iteration) in strong squared- error E[parallel to((mu) over cap (()(tau)) - mu)parallel to(2)]. For a residual-based stopping rule oracle adaptation bounds are established for general spectral regularization methods. The proofs use bias and variance transfer techniques from weak prediction error to strong L-2-error, as well as convexity arguments and concentration bounds for the stochastic part. Adaptive early stopping for the Landweber method is studied in further detail and illustrated numerically.
Mental arithmetic is characterised by a tendency to overestimate addition and to underestimate subtraction results: the operational momentum (OM) effect. Here, motivated by contentious explanations of this effect, we developed and tested an arithmetic heuristics and biases model that predicts reverse OM due to cognitive anchoring effects. Participants produced bi-directional lines with lengths corresponding to the results of arithmetic problems. In two experiments, we found regular OM with zero problems (e.g., 3+0, 3-0) but reverse OM with non-zero problems (e.g., 2+1, 4-1). In a third experiment, we tested the prediction of our model. Our results suggest the presence of at least three competing biases in mental arithmetic: a more-or-less heuristic, a sign-space association and an anchoring bias. We conclude that mental arithmetic exhibits shortcuts for decision-making similar to traditional domains of reasoning and problem-solving.
We present a project combining lidar, photometer and particle counter data with a regularization software tool for a closure study of aerosol microphysical property retrieval. In a first step only lidar data are used to retrieve the particle size distribution (PSD). Secondly, photometer data are added, which results in a good consistency of the retrieved PSDs. Finally, those retrieved PSDs may be compared with the measured PSD from a particle counter. The data here were taken in Ny Alesund, Svalbard, as an example.
Random walks are frequently used in randomized algorithms. We study a derandomized variant of a random walk on graphs called the rotor-router model. In this model, instead of distributing tokens randomly, each vertex serves its neighbors in a fixed deterministic order. For most setups, both processes behave in a remarkably similar way: Starting with the same initial configuration, the number of tokens in the rotor-router model deviates only slightly from the expected number of tokens on the corresponding vertex in the random walk model. The maximal difference over all vertices and all times is called single vertex discrepancy. Cooper and Spencer [Combin. Probab. Comput., 15 (2006), pp. 815-822] showed that on Z(d), the single vertex discrepancy is only a constant c(d). Other authors also determined the precise value of c(d) for d = 1, 2. All of these results, however, assume that initially all tokens are only placed on one partition of the bipartite graph Z(d). We show that this assumption is crucial by proving that, otherwise, the single vertex discrepancy can become arbitrarily large. For all dimensions d >= 1 and arbitrary discrepancies l >= 0, we construct configurations that reach a discrepancy of at least l.
Concurrent observation technologies have made high-precision real-time data available in large quantities. Data assimilation (DA) is concerned with how to combine this data with physical models to produce accurate predictions. For spatial-temporal models, the ensemble Kalman filter with proper localisation techniques is considered to be a state-of-the-art DA methodology. This article proposes and investigates a localised ensemble Kalman Bucy filter for nonlinear models with short-range interactions. We derive dimension-independent and component-wise error bounds and show the long time path-wise error only has logarithmic dependence on the time range. The theoretical results are verified through some simple numerical tests.
We consider a distributed learning approach in supervised learning for a large class of spectral regularization methods in an reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) framework. The data set of size n is partitioned into m = O (n(alpha)), alpha < 1/2, disjoint subsamples. On each subsample, some spectral regularization method (belonging to a large class, including in particular Kernel Ridge Regression, L-2-boosting and spectral cut-off) is applied. The regression function f is then estimated via simple averaging, leading to a substantial reduction in computation time. We show that minimax optimal rates of convergence are preserved if m grows sufficiently slowly (corresponding to an upper bound for alpha) as n -> infinity, depending on the smoothness assumptions on f and the intrinsic dimensionality. In spirit, the analysis relies on a classical bias/stochastic error analysis.
In this chapter, an overview of systematic eradication of basic science foci in European universities in the last two decades is given. This happens under the slogan of optimisation of the university education to the needs and demands of the society. It is pointed out that reliance on “market demands” brings with it long-term deficiencies in the maintenance of basic and advanced knowledge construction in societies necessary for long-term future technological advances. University policies that claim improvement of higher education towards more immediate efficiency may end up with the opposite effect of affecting its quality and long term expected positive impact on society.
Uniformly valid confidence intervals post model selection in regression can be constructed based on Post-Selection Inference (PoSI) constants. PoSI constants are minimal for orthogonal design matrices, and can be upper bounded in function of the sparsity of the set of models under consideration, for generic design matrices. In order to improve on these generic sparse upper bounds, we consider design matrices satisfying a Restricted Isometry Property (RIP) condition. We provide a new upper bound on the PoSI constant in this setting. This upper bound is an explicit function of the RIP constant of the design matrix, thereby giving an interpolation between the orthogonal setting and the generic sparse setting. We show that this upper bound is asymptotically optimal in many settings by constructing a matching lower bound.
We consider composite-composite testing problems for the expectation in the Gaussian sequence model where the null hypothesis corresponds to a closed convex subset C of R-d. We adopt a minimax point of view and our primary objective is to describe the smallest Euclidean distance between the null and alternative hypotheses such that there is a test with small total error probability. In particular, we focus on the dependence of this distance on the dimension d and variance 1/n giving rise to the minimax separation rate. In this paper we discuss lower and upper bounds on this rate for different smooth and non-smooth choices for C.
We consider truncated SVD (or spectral cut-off, projection) estimators for a prototypical statistical inverse problem in dimension D. Since calculating the singular value decomposition (SVD) only for the largest singular values is much less costly than the full SVD, our aim is to select a data-driven truncation level (m) over cap is an element of {1, . . . , D} only based on the knowledge of the first (m) over cap singular values and vectors. We analyse in detail whether sequential early stopping rules of this type can preserve statistical optimality. Information-constrained lower bounds and matching upper bounds for a residual based stopping rule are provided, which give a clear picture in which situation optimal sequential adaptation is feasible. Finally, a hybrid two-step approach is proposed which allows for classical oracle inequalities while considerably reducing numerical complexity.
Das Professionswissen von Lehrkräften gehört zu den bedeutendsten Stellschrauben der Bildung an den Schulen. Seine Kernbereiche sind fachwissenschaftliches Wissen und fachdidaktisches Wissen, welche hauptsächlich in der universitären Ausbildung erworben werden.
Die vorliegende Arbeit verfolgt das Ziel, einen Beitrag zur stetigen Verbesserung und Sicherung der Qualität der Lehrerausbildung an der Universität Potsdam zu leisten, und stellt die Frage: Über welches fachwissenschaftliche und fachdidaktische Wissen verfügen die Lehramtsstudierenden im Fach Mathematik nach Besuch der Lehrveranstaltung Arithmetik und ihre Didaktik I und II? Untersucht wurde exemplarisch das Wissen der Lehramtsstudierenden im Bereich der rationalen Zahlen mit dem Fokus auf dem Verständnis der Dichte von Bruchzahlen. Die Dichte stellt eines der am schwierigsten zu erwerbenden Konzepte im Bruchzahlerwerb dar und fordert ein konzeptionelles Umdenken sowie die Reorganisation bereits erworbener Vorstellungen. Um die Forschungsfrage zu beantworten, wurden in einer qualitativen Studie 112 Lehramtsstudierende hinsichtlich ihres Wissens zu dem Thema Dichte von rationalen Zahlen schriftlich getestet. Um Denkprozesse der Studierenden zu verstehen und Denkhürden zu identifizieren, wurden zusätzlich qualitative Interviews in Form von Gruppendiskussionen geführt. Die Daten wurden mithilfe der Qualitativen Inhaltsanalyse computergestützt ausgewertet.
Es zeigte sich eine große Bandbreite verschiedener Wissensbestände. Die Ergebnisse im fachdidaktischen Wissen blieben hinter den Ergebnissen im fachwissenschaftlichen Wissen zurück. Am schwierigsten fiel den Studierenden die Gegenüberstellung von wesentlichen Eigenschaften der rationalen und natürlichen Zahlen auf der metakognitiven Ebene. Neben positiven Ergebnissen, welche für die Effektivität der Konzeption der Lehrveranstaltung sprechen, zeigten sich diverse Denkhürden. Defizite im Fachwissen wie ein mangelndes Verständnis von äquivalenten Brüchen oder Fehler im Erweitern von Brüchen enthüllen unzulänglich ausgebildete Grundvorstellungen im Bereich der rationalen Zahlen seitens der Studierenden. Schwierigkeiten in den fachdidaktischen Aufgaben wie die Formulierung einer kindgerechten Erklärung oder die anschauliche Darstellung des mathematischen Inhalts auf bildlicher Ebene lassen sich ursächlich auf die Defizite im Fachwissen zurückführen. Zusätzlich stellten sich Einschränkungen seitens der Studierenden in der Motivation und Relevanzzuschreibung heraus.
Die Ergebnisse führen zu gezielten Änderungsvorschlägen bezüglich der Konzeption der Lehrveranstaltung. Es wird empfohlen, verschiedene Lernangebote wie Hausaufgaben und wöchentliche Selbsttests zur individuellen Lernzielkontrolle für alle Teilnehmenden der Lehrveranstaltung verpflichtend zu gestalten und motivationale Aspekte verstärkt aufzugreifen. Zusätzlich wird der Ausbau von konkreten Übungen auf der enaktiven Ebene empfohlen, um den Aufbau von notwendigen Grundvorstellungen im Bereich der rationalen Zahlen zu fördern und somit Denkhürden gezielt zu begegnen.
S-test results for the USGS and RELM forecasts. The differences between the simulated log-likelihoods and the observed log-likelihood are labelled on the horizontal axes, with scaling adjustments for the 40year.retro experiment. The horizontal lines represent the confidence intervals, within the 0.05 significance level, for each forecast and experiment. If this range contains a log-likelihood difference of zero, the forecasted log-likelihoods are consistent with the observed, and the forecast passes the S-test (denoted by thin lines). If the minimum difference within this range does not contain zero, the forecast fails the S-test for that particular experiment, denoted by thick lines. Colours distinguish between experiments (see Table 2 for explanation of experiment durations). Due to anomalously large likelihood differences, S-test results for Wiemer-Schorlemmer.ALM during the 10year.retro and 40year.retro experiments are not displayed. The range of log-likelihoods for the Holliday-et-al.PI forecast is lower than for the other forecasts due to relatively homogeneous forecasted seismicity rates and use of a small fraction of the RELM testing region.
We prove that the Atiyah–Singer Dirac operator in L2 depends Riesz continuously on L∞ perturbations of complete metrics g on a smooth manifold. The Lipschitz bound for the map depends on bounds on Ricci curvature and its first derivatives as well as a lower bound on injectivity radius. Our proof uses harmonic analysis techniques related to Calderón’s first commutator and the Kato square root problem. We also show perturbation results for more general functions of general Dirac-type operators on vector bundles.
Understanding and reducing complex systems pharmacology models based on a novel input-response index
(2018)
A growing understanding of complex processes in biology has led to large-scale mechanistic models of pharmacologically relevant processes. These models are increasingly used to study the response of the system to a given input or stimulus, e.g., after drug administration. Understanding the input–response relationship, however, is often a challenging task due to the complexity of the interactions between its constituents as well as the size of the models. An approach that quantifies the importance of the different constituents for a given input–output relationship and allows to reduce the dynamics to its essential features is therefore highly desirable. In this article, we present a novel state- and time-dependent quantity called the input–response index that quantifies the importance of state variables for a given input–response relationship at a particular time. It is based on the concept of time-bounded controllability and observability, and defined with respect to a reference dynamics. In application to the brown snake venom–fibrinogen (Fg) network, the input–response indices give insight into the coordinated action of specific coagulation factors and about those factors that contribute only little to the response. We demonstrate how the indices can be used to reduce large-scale models in a two-step procedure: (i) elimination of states whose dynamics have only minor impact on the input–response relationship, and (ii) proper lumping of the remaining (lower order) model. In application to the brown snake venom–fibrinogen network, this resulted in a reduction from 62 to 8 state variables in the first step, and a further reduction to 5 state variables in the second step. We further illustrate that the sequence, in which a recursive algorithm eliminates and/or lumps state variables, has an impact on the final reduced model. The input–response indices are particularly suited to determine an informed sequence, since they are based on the dynamics of the original system. In summary, the novel measure of importance provides a powerful tool for analysing the complex dynamics of large-scale systems and a means for very efficient model order reduction of nonlinear systems.
The increasing availability of earth observations necessitates mathematical methods to optimally combine such data with hydrologic models. Several algorithms exist for such purposes, under the umbrella of data assimilation (DA). However, DA methods are often applied in a suboptimal fashion for complex real-world problems, due largely to several practical implementation issues. One such issue is error characterization, which is known to be critical for a successful assimilation. Mischaracterized errors lead to suboptimal forecasts, and in the worst case, to degraded estimates even compared to the no assimilation case. Model uncertainty characterization has received little attention relative to other aspects of DA science. Traditional methods rely on subjective, ad hoc tuning factors or parametric distribution assumptions that may not always be applicable. We propose a novel data-driven approach (named SDMU) to model uncertainty characterization for DA studies where (1) the system states are partially observed and (2) minimal prior knowledge of the model error processes is available, except that the errors display state dependence. It includes an approach for estimating the uncertainty in hidden model states, with the end goal of improving predictions of observed variables. The SDMU is therefore suited to DA studies where the observed variables are of primary interest. Its efficacy is demonstrated through a synthetic case study with low-dimensional chaotic dynamics and a real hydrologic experiment for one-day-ahead streamflow forecasting. In both experiments, the proposed method leads to substantial improvements in the hidden states and observed system outputs over a standard method involving perturbation with Gaussian noise.
SmB6 is predicted to be the first member of the intersection of topological insulators and Kondo insulators, strongly correlated materials in which the Fermi level lies in the gap of a many-body resonance that forms by hybridization between localized and itinerant states. While robust, surface-only conductivity at low temperature and the observation of surface states at the expected high symmetry points appear to confirm this prediction, we find both surface states at the (100) surface to be topologically trivial. We find the (Gamma) over bar state to appear Rashba split and explain the prominent (X) over bar state by a surface shift of the many-body resonance. We propose that the latter mechanism, which applies to several crystal terminations, can explain the unusual surface conductivity. While additional, as yet unobserved topological surface states cannot be excluded, our results show that a firm connection between the two material classes is still outstanding.
We give a new and very short proof of a theorem of Greiner asserting that a positive and contractive -semigroup on an -space is strongly convergent in case it has a strictly positive fixed point and contains an integral operator. Our proof is a streamlined version of a much more general approach to the asymptotic theory of positive semigroups developed recently by the authors. Under the assumptions of Greiner's theorem, this approach becomes particularly elegant and simple. We also give an outlook on several generalisations of this result.
This paper is concerned with the filtering problem in continuous time. Three algorithmic solution approaches for this problem are reviewed: (i) the classical Kalman-Bucy filter, which provides an exact solution for the linear Gaussian problem; (ii) the ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter (EnKBF), which is an approximate filter and represents an extension of the Kalman-Bucy filter to nonlinear problems; and (iii) the feedback particle filter (FPF), which represents an extension of the EnKBF and furthermore provides for a consistent solution in the general nonlinear, non-Gaussian case. The common feature of the three algorithms is the gain times error formula to implement the update step (to account for conditioning due to the observations) in the filter. In contrast to the commonly used sequential Monte Carlo methods, the EnKBF and FPF avoid the resampling of the particles in the importance sampling update step. Moreover, the feedback control structure provides for error correction potentially leading to smaller simulation variance and improved stability properties. The paper also discusses the issue of nonuniqueness of the filter update formula and formulates a novel approximation algorithm based on ideas from optimal transport and coupling of measures. Performance of this and other algorithms is illustrated for a numerical example.
From monthly mean observatory data spanning 1957-2014, geomagnetic field secular variation values were calculated by annual differences. Estimates of the spherical harmonic Gauss coefficients of the core field secular variation were then derived by applying a correlation based modelling. Finally, a Fourier transform was applied to the time series of the Gauss coefficients. This process led to reliable temporal spectra of the Gauss coefficients up to spherical harmonic degree 5 or 6, and down to periods as short as 1 or 2 years depending on the coefficient. We observed that a k(-2) slope, where k is the frequency, is an acceptable approximation for these spectra, with possibly an exception for the dipole field. The monthly estimates of the core field secular variation at the observatory sites also show that large and rapid variations of the latter happen. This is an indication that geomagnetic jerks are frequent phenomena and that significant secular variation signals at short time scales - i.e. less than 2 years, could still be extracted from data to reveal an unexplored part of the core dynamics.
The global prevalence of rapid and extensive land use change necessitates hydrologic modelling methodologies capable of handling non-stationarity. This is particularly true in the context of Hydrologic Forecasting using Data Assimilation. Data Assimilation has been shown to dramatically improve forecast skill in hydrologic and meteorological applications, although such improvements are conditional on using bias-free observations and model simulations. A hydrologic model calibrated to a particular set of land cover conditions has the potential to produce biased simulations when the catchment is disturbed. This paper sheds new light on the impacts of bias or systematic errors in hydrologic data assimilation, in the context of forecasting in catchments with changing land surface conditions and a model calibrated to pre-change conditions. We posit that in such cases, the impact of systematic model errors on assimilation or forecast quality is dependent on the inherent prediction uncertainty that persists even in pre-change conditions. Through experiments on a range of catchments, we develop a conceptual relationship between total prediction uncertainty and the impacts of land cover changes on the hydrologic regime to demonstrate how forecast quality is affected when using state estimation Data Assimilation with no modifications to account for land cover changes. This work shows that systematic model errors as a result of changing or changed catchment conditions do not always necessitate adjustments to the modelling or assimilation methodology, for instance through re-calibration of the hydrologic model, time varying model parameters or revised offline/online bias estimation.
For a given subcritical discrete Schrodinger operator H on a weighted infinite graph X, we construct a Hardy-weight w which is optimal in the following sense. The operator H - lambda w is subcritical in X for all lambda < 1, null-critical in X for lambda = 1, and supercritical near any neighborhood of infinity in X for any lambda > 1. Our results rely on a criticality theory for Schrodinger operators on general weighted graphs.
For an arbitrary euclidean field F we introduce a central extension (G(F), Phi) of SL(2, F) admitting a left-ordering and study its algebraic properties. The elements of G(F) are order preserving bijections of the convex hull of Q in F. If F = R then G(F) is isomorphic to the classical universal covering group of the Lie group SL(2, R). Among other results we show that G(F) is a perfect group which possesses a rank 1 cone of exceptional type. We also prove that its centre is an infinite cyclic group and investigate its normal subgroups.
We prove finiteness and diameter bounds for graphs having a positive Ricci-curvature bound in the Bakry–Émery sense. Our first result using only curvature and maximal vertex degree is sharp in the case of hypercubes. The second result depends on an additional dimension bound, but is independent of the vertex degree. In particular, the second result is the first Bonnet–Myers type theorem for unbounded graph Laplacians. Moreover, our results improve diameter bounds from Fathi and Shu (Bernoulli 24(1):672–698, 2018) and Horn et al. (J für die reine und angewandte Mathematik (Crelle’s J), 2017, https://doi.org/10.1515/crelle-2017-0038) and solve a conjecture from Cushing et al. (Bakry–Émery curvature functions of graphs, 2016).
We complete the picture how the asymptotic behavior of a dynamical system is reflected by properties of the associated Perron-Frobenius operator. Our main result states that strong convergence of the powers of the Perron-Frobenius operator is equivalent to setwise convergence of the underlying dynamic in the measure algebra. This situation is furthermore characterized by uniform mixing-like properties of the system.
ShapeRotator
(2018)
The quantification of complex morphological patterns typically involves comprehensive shape and size analyses, usually obtained by gathering morphological data from all the structures that capture the phenotypic diversity of an organism or object. Articulated structures are a critical component of overall phenotypic diversity, but data gathered from these structures are difficult to incorporate into modern analyses because of the complexities associated with jointly quantifying 3D shape in multiple structures. While there are existing methods for analyzing shape variation in articulated structures in two-dimensional (2D) space, these methods do not work in 3D, a rapidly growing area of capability and research. Here, we describe a simple geometric rigid rotation approach that removes the effect of random translation and rotation, enabling the morphological analysis of 3D articulated structures. Our method is based on Cartesian coordinates in 3D space, so it can be applied to any morphometric problem that also uses 3D coordinates (e.g., spherical harmonics). We demonstrate the method by applying it to a landmark-based dataset for analyzing shape variation using geometric morphometrics. We have developed an R tool (ShapeRotator) so that the method can be easily implemented in the commonly used R package geomorph and MorphoJ software. This method will be a valuable tool for 3D morphological analyses in articulated structures by allowing an exhaustive examination of shape and size diversity.
We analyze a general class of self-adjoint difference operators H-epsilon = T-epsilon + V-epsilon on l(2)((epsilon Z)(d)), where V-epsilon is a multi-well potential and v(epsilon) is a small parameter. We give a coherent review of our results on tunneling up to new sharp results on the level of complete asymptotic expansions (see [30-35]). Our emphasis is on general ideas and strategy, possibly of interest for a broader range of readers, and less on detailed mathematical proofs. The wells are decoupled by introducing certain Dirichlet operators on regions containing only one potential well. Then the eigenvalue problem for the Hamiltonian H-epsilon is treated as a small perturbation of these comparison problems. After constructing a Finslerian distance d induced by H-epsilon, we show that Dirichlet eigenfunctions decay exponentially with a rate controlled by this distance to the well. It follows with microlocal techniques that the first n eigenvalues of H-epsilon converge to the first n eigenvalues of the direct sum of harmonic oscillators on R-d located at several wells. In a neighborhood of one well, we construct formal asymptotic expansions of WKB-type for eigenfunctions associated with the low-lying eigenvalues of H-epsilon. These are obtained from eigenfunctions or quasimodes for the operator H-epsilon acting on L-2(R-d), via restriction to the lattice (epsilon Z)(d). Tunneling is then described by a certain interaction matrix, similar to the analysis for the Schrodinger operator (see [22]), the remainder is exponentially small and roughly quadratic compared with the interaction matrix. We give weighted l(2)-estimates for the difference of eigenfunctions of Dirichlet-operators in neighborhoods of the different wells and the associated WKB-expansions at the wells. In the last step, we derive full asymptotic expansions for interactions between two "wells" (minima) of the potential energy, in particular for the discrete tunneling effect. Here we essentially use analysis on phase space, complexified in the momentum variable. These results are as sharp as the classical results for the Schrodinger operator in [22].
Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km(2)) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.
We establish essential steps of an iterative approach to operator algebras, ellipticity and Fredholm property on stratified spaces with singularities of second order. We cover, in particular, corner-degenerate differential operators. Our constructions are focused on the case where no additional conditions of trace and potential type are posed, but this case works well and will be considered in a forthcoming paper as a conclusion of the present calculus.
Earthquake rates are driven by tectonic stress buildup, earthquake-induced stress changes, and transient aseismic processes. Although the origin of the first two sources is known, transient aseismic processes are more difficult to detect. However, the knowledge of the associated changes of the earthquake activity is of great interest, because it might help identify natural aseismic deformation patterns such as slow-slip events, as well as the occurrence of induced seismicity related to human activities. For this goal, we develop a Bayesian approach to identify change-points in seismicity data automatically. Using the Bayes factor, we select a suitable model, estimate possible change-points, and we additionally use a likelihood ratio test to calculate the significance of the change of the intensity. The approach is extended to spatiotemporal data to detect the area in which the changes occur. The method is first applied to synthetic data showing its capability to detect real change-points. Finally, we apply this approach to observational data from Oklahoma and observe statistical significant changes of seismicity in space and time.
Paleoearthquakes and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimation of long-term earthquake recurrence intervals in fault zones, because corresponding sequences cover more than one seismic cycle. However, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous, and missing or misinterpreted events lead to additional problems. In the present study, I assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a clock change model. Mathematically, this leads to a Brownian passage time distribution for recurrence intervals. I take advantage of an earlier finding that under certain assumptions the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg-Richter b value, which can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. In this way, both parameters of the Brownian passage time distribution can be attributed with accessible seismological quantities. This allows to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the mean recurrence interval, especially for short paleoearthquake sequences and high dating errors. Using a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation results in a statistical model for earthquake recurrence intervals that assimilates in a simple way paleoearthquake sequences and instrumental data. I present illustrative case studies from Southern California and compare the method with the commonly used approach of exponentially distributed recurrence times based on a stationary Poisson process.
The important role that metacognition plays as a predictor for student mathematical learning and for mathematical problem-solving, has been extensively documented. But only recently has attention turned to primary grades, and more research is needed at this level. The goals of this paper are threefold: (1) to present metacognitive framework during mathematics problem-solving, (2) to describe their multi-method interview approach developed to study student mathematical metacognition, and (3) to empirically evaluate the utility of their model and the adaptation of their approach in the context of grade 2 and grade 4 mathematics problem-solving. The results are discussed not only with regard to further development of the adapted multi-method interview approach, but also with regard to their theoretical and practical implications.
This article assesses the distance between the laws of stochastic differential equations with multiplicative Levy noise on path space in terms of their characteristics. The notion of transportation distance on the set of Levy kernels introduced by Kosenkova and Kulik yields a natural and statistically tractable upper bound on the noise sensitivity. This extends recent results for the additive case in terms of coupling distances to the multiplicative case. The strength of this notion is shown in a statistical implementation for simulations and the example of a benchmark time series in paleoclimate.
Frühe mathematische Bildung
(2018)
Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden aktuelle Forschungstrends im Bereich der frühen mathematischen Bildung im Kontext jüngst formulierter Zieldimensionen für die frühe mathematische Bildung (siehe Benz et al., 2017) dargestellt. Es wird auf spielbasierte Fördermaßnahmen, Kompetenzen im Bereich „Raum und Form“, den Einfluss sprachlicher Parameter auf die Entwicklung mathematischer Kompetenzen sowie auf mathematikbezogene Kompetenzen frühpädagogischer Fachkräfte eingegangen. Darüber hinaus werden die Ergebnisse einer aktuellen Feldstudie zur Förderung früher mathematischer Kompetenzen (siehe Dillon, Kannan, Dean, Spelke & Duflo, 2017) vorgestellt. Abschließend wird die Entwicklung und Implementierung anschlussfähiger Bildungskonzepte als eine der zentralen Herausforderungen zukünftiger Forschungs- und Bildungsbemühungen diskutiert
We consider the problem of low rank matrix recovery in a stochastically noisy high-dimensional setting. We propose a new estimator for the low rank matrix, based on the iterative hard thresholding method, that is computationally efficient and simple. We prove that our estimator is optimal in terms of the Frobenius risk and in terms of the entry-wise risk uniformly over any change of orthonormal basis, allowing us to provide the limiting distribution of the estimator. When the design is Gaussian, we prove that the entry-wise bias of the limiting distribution of the estimator is small, which is of interest for constructing tests and confidence sets for low-dimensional subsets of entries of the low rank matrix.
Die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse können für die Untersuchung von speziellen und sich entwickelnden Populationen verwendet werden. Die Populationen umfassen Individuen, welche sich identisch, zufällig, selbstständig und unabhängig voneinander fortpflanzen und die jeweils nur eine Generation existieren. Die n-te Generation ergibt sich als zufällige Summe der Individuen der (n-1)-ten Generation. Die Relevanz dieser Prozesse begründet sich innerhalb der Historie und der inner- und außermathematischen Bedeutung. Die Geschichte der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson-Prozesse wird anhand der Entwicklung des Konzeptes bis heute dargestellt. Dabei werden die Wissenschaftler:innen verschiedener Disziplinen angeführt, die Erkenntnisse zu dem Themengebiet beigetragen und das Konzept in ihren Fachbereichen angeführt haben. Somit ergibt sich die außermathematische Signifikanz. Des Weiteren erhält man die innermathematische Bedeutsamkeit mittels des Konzeptes der Verzweigungsprozesse, welches auf die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse zurückzuführen ist. Die Verzweigungsprozesse stellen eines der aussagekräftigsten Modelle für die Beschreibung des Populationswachstums dar. Darüber hinaus besteht die derzeitige Wichtigkeit durch die Anwendungsmöglichkeit der Verzweigungsprozesse und der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse innerhalb der Epidemiologie. Es werden die Ebola- und die Corona-Pandemie als Anwendungsfelder angeführt. Die Prozesse dienen als Entscheidungsstütze für die Politik und ermöglichen Aussagen über die Auswirkungen von Maßnahmen bezüglich der Pandemien. Neben den Prozessen werden ebenfalls der bedingte Erwartungswert bezüglich diskreter Zufallsvariablen, die wahrscheinlichkeitserzeugende Funktion und die zufällige Summe eingeführt. Die Konzepte vereinfachen die Beschreibung der Prozesse und bilden somit die Grundlage der Betrachtungen. Außerdem werden die benötigten und weiterführenden Eigenschaften der grundlegenden Themengebiete und der Prozesse aufgeführt und bewiesen. Das Kapitel erreicht seinen Höhepunkt bei dem Beweis des Kritikalitätstheorems, wodurch eine Aussage über das Aussterben des Prozesses in verschiedenen Fällen und somit über die Aussterbewahrscheinlichkeit getätigt werden kann. Die Fälle werden anhand der zu erwartenden Anzahl an Nachkommen eines Individuums unterschieden. Es zeigt sich, dass ein Prozess bei einer zu erwartenden Anzahl kleiner gleich Eins mit Sicherheit ausstirbt und bei einer Anzahl größer als Eins, die Population nicht in jedem Fall aussterben muss. Danach werden einzelne Beispiele, wie der linear fractional case, die Population von Fibroblasten (Bindegewebszellen) von Mäusen und die Entstehungsfragestellung der Prozesse, angeführt. Diese werden mithilfe der erlangten Ergebnisse untersucht und einige ausgewählte zufällige Dynamiken werden im nachfolgenden Kapitel simuliert. Die Simulationen erfolgen durch ein in Python erstelltes Programm und werden mithilfe der Inversionsmethode realisiert. Die Simulationen stellen beispielhaft die Entwicklungen in den verschiedenen Kritikalitätsfällen der Prozesse dar. Zudem werden die Häufigkeiten der einzelnen Populationsgrößen in Form von Histogrammen angebracht. Dabei lässt sich der Unterschied zwischen den einzelnen Fällen bestätigen und es wird die Anwendungsmöglichkeit der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse bei komplexeren Problemen deutlich. Histogramme bekräftigen, dass die einzelnen Populationsgrößen nur endlich oft vorkommen. Diese Aussage wurde von Galton aufgeworfen und in der Extinktions-Explosions-Dichotomie verwendet. Die dargestellten Erkenntnisse über das Themengebiet und die Betrachtung des Konzeptes werden mit einer didaktischen Analyse abgeschlossen. Die Untersuchung beinhaltet die Berücksichtigung der Fundamentalen Ideen, der Fundamentalen Ideen der Stochastik und der Leitidee „Daten und Zufall“. Dabei ergibt sich, dass in Abhängigkeit der gewählten Perspektive die Anwendung der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse innerhalb der Schule plausibel ist und von Vorteil für die Schüler:innen sein kann. Für die Behandlung wird exemplarisch der Rahmenlehrplan für Berlin und Brandenburg analysiert und mit dem Kernlehrplan Nordrhein-Westfalens verglichen. Die Konzeption des Lehrplans aus Berlin und Brandenburg lässt nicht den Schluss zu, dass die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse angewendet werden sollten. Es lässt sich feststellen, dass die zugrunde liegende Leitidee nicht vollumfänglich mit manchen Fundamentalen Ideen der Stochastik vereinbar ist. Somit würde eine Modifikation hinsichtlich einer stärkeren Orientierung des Lehrplans an den Fundamentalen Ideen die Anwendung der Prozesse ermöglichen. Die Aussage wird durch die Betrachtung und Übertragung eines nordrhein-westfälischen Unterrichtsentwurfes für stochastische Prozesse auf die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse unterstützt. Darüber hinaus werden eine Concept Map und ein Vernetzungspentagraph nach von der Bank konzipiert um diesen Aspekt hervorzuheben.
We consider a statistical inverse learning (also called inverse regression) problem, where we observe the image of a function f through a linear operator A at i.i.d. random design points X-i , superposed with an additive noise. The distribution of the design points is unknown and can be very general. We analyze simultaneously the direct (estimation of Af) and the inverse (estimation of f) learning problems. In this general framework, we obtain strong and weak minimax optimal rates of convergence (as the number of observations n grows large) for a large class of spectral regularization methods over regularity classes defined through appropriate source conditions. This improves on or completes previous results obtained in related settings. The optimality of the obtained rates is shown not only in the exponent in n but also in the explicit dependency of the constant factor in the variance of the noise and the radius of the source condition set.
We study travelling chimera states in a ring of nonlocally coupled heterogeneous (with Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies) phase oscillators. These states are coherence-incoherence patterns moving in the lateral direction because of the broken reflection symmetry of the coupling topology. To explain the results of direct numerical simulations we consider the continuum limit of the system. In this case travelling chimera states correspond to smooth travelling wave solutions of some integro-differential equation, called the Ott–Antonsen equation, which describes the long time coarse-grained dynamics of the oscillators. Using the Lyapunov–Schmidt reduction technique we suggest a numerical approach for the continuation of these travelling waves. Moreover, we perform their linear stability analysis and show that travelling chimera states can lose their stability via fold and Hopf bifurcations. Some of the Hopf bifurcations turn out to be supercritical resulting in the observation of modulated travelling chimera states.
Given two weighted graphs (X, b(k), m(k)), k = 1, 2 with b(1) similar to b(2) and m(1) similar to m(2), we prove a weighted L-1-criterion for the existence and completeness of the wave operators W-+/- (H-2, H-1, I-1,I-2), where H-k denotes the natural Laplacian in l(2)(X, m(k)) w.r.t. (X, b(k), m(k)) and I-1,I-2 the trivial identification of l(2)(X, m(1)) with l(2) (X, m(2)). In particular, this entails a general criterion for the absolutely continuous spectra of H-1 and H-2 to be equal.
We prove that if u is a locally Lipschitz continuous function on an open set chi subset of Rn + 1 satisfying the nonlinear heat equation partial derivative(t)u = Delta(vertical bar u vertical bar(p-1) u), p > 1, weakly away from the zero set u(-1) (0) in chi, then u is a weak solution to this equation in all of chi.