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Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.
This paper deals with the long-term behavior of positive operator semigroups on spaces of bounded functions and of signed measures, which have applications to parabolic equations with unbounded coefficients and to stochas-tic analysis. The main results are a Tauberian type theorem characterizing the convergence to equilibrium of strongly Feller semigroups and a generalization of a classical convergence theorem of Doob. None of these results requires any kind of time regularity of the semigroup.
We present a Reduced Order Model (ROM) which exploits recent developments in Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for solving inverse problems for the Navier-Stokes equations (NSE). In the proposed approach, the presence of simulated data for the fluid dynamics fields is assumed. A POD-Galerkin ROM is then constructed by applying POD on the snapshots matrices of the fluid fields and performing a Galerkin projection of the NSE (or the modified equations in case of turbulence modeling) onto the POD reduced basis. A POD-Galerkin PINN ROM is then derived by introducing deep neural networks which approximate the reduced outputs with the input being time and/or parameters of the model. The neural networks incorporate the physical equations (the POD-Galerkin reduced equations) into their structure as part of the loss function. Using this approach, the reduced model is able to approximate unknown parameters such as physical constants or the boundary conditions. A demonstration of the applicability of the proposed ROM is illustrated by three cases which are the steady flow around a backward step, the flow around a circular cylinder and the unsteady turbulent flow around a surface mounted cubic obstacle.
The past three decades of policy process studies have seen the emergence of a clear intellectual lineage with regard to complexity. Implicitly or explicitly, scholars have employed complexity theory to examine the intricate dynamics of collective action in political contexts. However, the methodological counterparts to complexity theory, such as computational methods, are rarely used and, even if they are, they are often detached from established policy process theory. Building on a critical review of the application of complexity theory to policy process studies, we present and implement a baseline model of policy processes using the logic of coevolving networks. Our model suggests that an actor's influence depends on their environment and on exogenous events facilitating dialogue and consensus-building. Our results validate previous opinion dynamics models and generate novel patterns. Our discussion provides ground for further research and outlines the path for the field to achieve a computational turn.
Instruments for measuring the absorbed dose and dose rate under radiation exposure, known as radiation dosimeters, are indispensable in space missions. They are composed of radiation sensors that generate current or voltage response when exposed to ionizing radiation, and processing electronics for computing the absorbed dose and dose rate. Among a wide range of existing radiation sensors, the Radiation Sensitive Field Effect Transistors (RADFETs) have unique advantages for absorbed dose measurement, and a proven record of successful exploitation in space missions. It has been shown that the RADFETs may be also used for the dose rate monitoring. In that regard, we propose a unique design concept that supports the simultaneous operation of a single RADFET as absorbed dose and dose rate monitor. This enables to reduce the cost of implementation, since the need for other types of radiation sensors can be minimized or eliminated. For processing the RADFET's response we propose a readout system composed of analog signal conditioner (ASC) and a self-adaptive multiprocessing system-on-chip (MPSoC). The soft error rate of MPSoC is monitored in real time with embedded sensors, allowing the autonomous switching between three operating modes (high-performance, de-stress and fault-tolerant), according to the application requirements and radiation conditions.
In this work we consider the first encounter problems between a fixed and/or mobile target A and a moving trap B on Bethe lattices and Cayley trees. The survival probabilities (SPs) of the target A on the both kinds of structures are considered analytically and compared. On Bethe lattices, the results show that the fixed target will still prolong its survival time, whereas, on Cayley trees, there are some initial positions where the target should move to prolong its survival time. The mean first encounter time (MFET) for mobile target A is evaluated numerically and compared with the mean first passage time (MFPT) for the fixed target A. Different initial settings are addressed and clear boundaries are obtained. These findings are helpful for optimizing the strategy to prolong the survival time of the target or to speed up the search process on Cayley trees, in relation to the target's movement and the initial position configuration of the two walkers. We also present a new method, which uses a small amount of memory, for simulating random walks on Cayley trees. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
An instance of the marriage problem is given by a graph G = (A boolean OR B, E), together with, for each vertex of G, a strict preference order over its neighbors. A matching M of G is popular in the marriage instance if M does not lose a head-to-head election against any matching where vertices are voters. Every stable matching is a min-size popular matching; another subclass of popular matchings that always exists and can be easily computed is the set of dominant matchings. A popular matching M is dominant if M wins the head-to-head election against any larger matching. Thus, every dominant matching is a max-size popular matching, and it is known that the set of dominant matchings is the linear image of the set of stable matchings in an auxiliary graph. Results from the literature seem to suggest that stable and dominant matchings behave, from a complexity theory point of view, in a very similar manner within the class of popular matchings. The goal of this paper is to show that there are instead differences in the tractability of stable and dominant matchings and to investigate further their importance for popular matchings. First, we show that it is easy to check if all popular matchings are also stable; however, it is co-NP hard to check if all popular matchings are also dominant. Second, we show how some new and recent hardness results on popular matching problems can be deduced from the NP-hardness of certain problems on stable matchings, also studied in this paper, thus showing that stable matchings can be employed to show not only positive results on popular matchings (as is known) but also most negative ones. Problems for which we show new hardness results include finding a min-size (resp., max-size) popular matching that is not stable (resp., dominant). A known result for which we give a new and simple proof is the NP-hardness of finding a popular matching when G is nonbipartite.
The Levenberg–Marquardt regularization for the backward heat equation with fractional derivative
(2022)
The backward heat problem with time-fractional derivative in Caputo's sense is studied. The inverse problem is severely ill-posed in the case when the fractional order is close to unity. A Levenberg-Marquardt method with a new a posteriori stopping rule is investigated. We show that optimal order can be obtained for the proposed method under a Hölder-type source condition. Numerical examples for one and two dimensions are provided.
Congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) is the most common form of adrenal insufficiency in childhood; it requires cortisol replacement therapy with hydrocortisone (HC, synthetic cortisol) from birth and therapy monitoring for successful treatment. In children, the less invasive dried blood spot (DBS) sampling with whole blood including red blood cells (RBCs) provides an advantageous alternative to plasma sampling.
Potential differences in binding/association processes between plasma and DBS however need to be considered to correctly interpret DBS measurements for therapy monitoring. While capillary DBS samples would be used in clinical practice, venous cortisol DBS samples from children with adrenal insufficiency were analyzed due to data availability and to directly compare and thus understand potential differences between venous DBS and plasma. A previously published HC plasma pharmacokinetic (PK) model was extended by leveraging these DBS concentrations.
In addition to previously characterized binding of cortisol to albumin (linear process) and corticosteroid-binding globulin (CBG; saturable process), DBS data enabled the characterization of a linear cortisol association with RBCs, and thereby providing a quantitative link between DBS and plasma cortisol concentrations. The ratio between the observed cortisol plasma and DBS concentrations varies highly from 2 to 8. Deterministic simulations of the different cortisol binding/association fractions demonstrated that with higher blood cortisol concentrations, saturation of cortisol binding to CBG was observed, leading to an increase in all other cortisol binding fractions.
In conclusion, a mathematical PK model was developed which links DBS measurements to plasma exposure and thus allows for quantitative interpretation of measurements of DBS samples.