500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
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Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5(+3.7)/(-3.7) x 10(6) m(3) (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600(+2.000)/(-1,800) m(3).S-1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (similar to 14,500 m(3).s(-1)) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.
High-precision observations of the present-day geomagnetic field by ground-based observatories and satellites provide unprecedented conditions for unveiling the dynamics of the Earth’s core. Combining geomagnetic observations with dynamo simulations in a data assimilation (DA) framework allows the reconstruction of past and present states of the internal core dynamics. The essential information that couples the internal state to the observations is provided by the statistical correlations from a numerical dynamo model in the form of a model covariance matrix. Here we test a sequential DA framework, working through a succession of forecast and analysis steps, that extracts the correlations from an ensemble of dynamo models. The primary correlations couple variables of the same azimuthal wave number, reflecting the predominant axial symmetry of the magnetic field. Synthetic tests show that the scheme becomes unstable when confronted with high-precision geomagnetic observations. Our study has identified spurious secondary correlations as the origin of the problem. Keeping only the primary correlations by localizing the covariance matrix with respect to the azimuthal wave number suffices to stabilize the assimilation. While the first analysis step is fundamental in constraining the large-scale interior state, further assimilation steps refine the smaller and more dynamical scales. This refinement turns out to be critical for long-term geomagnetic predictions. Increasing the assimilation steps from one to 18 roughly doubles the prediction horizon for the dipole from about tree to six centuries, and from 30 to about 60 yr for smaller observable scales. This improvement is also reflected on the predictability of surface intensity features such as the South Atlantic Anomaly. Intensity prediction errors are decreased roughly by a half when assimilating long observation sequences.
Molecular identification of late and terminal Pleistocene Equus ovodovi from northeastern China
(2019)
The extant diversity of horses (family Equidae) represents a small fraction of that occurring over their evolutionary history. One such lost lineage is the subgenus Sussemionus, which is thought to have become extinct during the Middle Pleistocene. However, recent molecular studies and morphological analysis have revealed that one of their representatives, E. ovodovi, did exist in Siberia during the Late Pleistocene. Fossil materials of E. ovodovi have thus far only been found in Russia. In this study, we extracted DNA from three equid fossil specimens excavated from northeastern China dated at 12,770-12,596, 29,525-28,887 and 40,201-38,848 cal. yBP, respectively, and retrieved three near-complete mitochondrial genomes from the specimens. Phylogenetic analyses cluster the Chinese haplotypes together with previously published Russian E. ovodovi, strongly supporting the assignment of these samples to this taxon. The molecular identification of E. ovodovi in northeastern China extends the known geographical range of this fossil species by several thousand kilometers to the east. The estimated coalescence time of all E. ovodovi haplotypes is approximately 199 Kya, with the Chinese haplotypes coalescing approximately 130 Kya. With a radiocarbon age of 12,770-12,596 cal. yBP, the youngest sample in this study represents the first E. ovodovi sample dating to the terminal Pleistocene, moving the extinction date of this species forwards considerably compared to previously documented fossils. Overall, comparison of our three mitochondrial genomes with the two published ones suggests a genetic diversity similar to several extant species of the genus Equus.
Background There is scant information on the breastmilk vitamin A (BMVA) concentration of lactating women in developing countries, partly due to lack of methods applicable in-field. Objective To assess BMVA concentrations of samples collected from lactating women of children aged 6-23 months, in Mecha district, Ethiopia. Subjects/methods Data on socio-demographic and anthropometric characteristics were collected from randomly selected lactating women (n = 104). Breast milk samples were collected and vitamin A concentrations were analyzed using HPLC and iCheck FLUORO then the two measurements were compared. Results The prevalence of underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m(2)) among lactating women was 17%. Seventy six percent of the BMVA values were < 1.05 mu mol/l and 81% were < 8 mu g/g fat. The mean BMVA concentration accounted to 41% of the estimated average value for mothers in developing countries. The BMVA values from HPLC and iCheck were correlated (r = 0.59, p = < 0.001), but it was not strong. Conclusions The result indicates the low vitamin A status of the lactating women and their children. It further indicates that intake assessments should not use average BMVA composition. The possibility of using iCheck for monitoring interventions designed to improve vitamin A status of lactating women with low BMVA requires further investigation.
Britholite group minerals (REE,Ca)(5)[(Si,P)O-4](3)(OH,F) are widespread rare-earth minerals in alkaline rocks and their associated metasomatic zones, where they usually are minor accessory phases. An exception is the REE deposit Rodeo de los Molles, Central Argentina, where fluorbritholite-(Ce) (FBri) is the main carrier of REE and is closely intergrown with fluorapatite (FAp). These minerals reach an abundance of locally up to 75 modal% (FBri) and 20 modal% (FAp) in the vein mineralizations. The Rodeo de los Molles deposit is hosted by a fenitized monzogranite of the Middle Devonian Las Chacras-Potrerillos batholith. The REE mineralization consists of fluorbritholite-(Ce), britholite-(Ce), fluorapatite, allanite-(Ce), and REE fluorcarbonates, and is associated with hydrothermal fluorite, quartz, albite, zircon, and titanite. The REE assemblage takes two forms: irregular patchy shaped REE-rich composites and discrete cross-cutting veins. The irregular composites are more common, but here fluorbritholite-(Ce) is mostly replaced by REE carbonates. The vein mineralization has more abundant and better-preserved britholite phases. The majority of britholite grains at Rodeo de los Molles are hydrothermally altered, and alteration is strongly enhanced by metamictization, which is indicated by darkening of the mineral, loss of birefringence, porosity, and volume changes leading to polygonal cracks in and around altered grains. A detailed electron microprobe study of apatite-britholite minerals from Rodeo de los Molles revealed compositional variations in fluorapatite and fluorbritholite-(Ce) consistent with the coupled substitution of REE3+ + Si4+ = Ca2+ + P5+ and a compositional gap of similar to 4 apfu between the two phases, which we interpret as a miscibility gap. Micrometer-scale intergrowths of fluorapatite in fluorbritholite-(Ce) minerals and vice versa are chemically characterized here for the first time and interpreted as exsolution textures that formed during cooling below the proposed solvus.
How much do we really lose?
(2019)
Natural landscape elements (NLEs) in agricultural landscapes contribute to biodiversity and ecosystem services, but are also regarded as an obstacle for large‐scale agricultural production. However, the effects of NLEs on crop yield have rarely been measured. Here, we investigated how different bordering structures, such as agricultural roads, field‐to‐field borders, forests, hedgerows, and kettle holes, influence agricultural yields. We hypothesized that (a) yield values at field borders differ from mid‐field yields and that (b) the extent of this change in yields depends on the bordering structure.
We measured winter wheat yields along transects with log‐scaled distances from the border into the agricultural field within two intensively managed agricultural landscapes in Germany (2014 near Göttingen, and 2015–2017 in the Uckermark).
We observed a yield loss adjacent to every investigated bordering structure of 11%–38% in comparison with mid‐field yields. However, depending on the bordering structure, this yield loss disappeared at different distances. While the proximity of kettle holes did not affect yields more than neighboring agricultural fields, woody landscape elements had strong effects on winter wheat yields. Notably, 95% of mid‐field yields could already be reached at a distance of 11.3 m from a kettle hole and at a distance of 17.8 m from hedgerows as well as forest borders.
Our findings suggest that yield losses are especially relevant directly adjacent to woody landscape elements, but not adjacent to in‐field water bodies. This highlights the potential to simultaneously counteract yield losses close to the field border and enhance biodiversity by combining different NLEs in agricultural landscapes such as creating strips of extensive grassland vegetation between woody landscape elements and agricultural fields. In conclusion, our results can be used to quantify ecocompensations to find optimal solutions for the delivery of productive and regulative ecosystem services in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes.
In daily life, we automatically form impressions of other individuals on basis of subtle facial features that convey trustworthiness. Because these face-based judgements influence current and future social interactions, we investigated how perceived trustworthiness of faces affects long-term memory using event-related potentials (ERPs). In the current study, participants incidentally viewed 60 neutral faces differing in trustworthiness, and one week later, performed a surprise recognition memory task, in which the same old faces were presented intermixed with novel ones. We found that after one week untrustworthy faces were better recognized than trustworthy faces and that untrustworthy faces prompted early (350–550 ms) enhanced frontal ERP old/new differences (larger positivity for correctly remembered old faces, compared to novel ones) during recognition. Our findings point toward an enhanced long-lasting, likely familiarity-based, memory for untrustworthy faces. Even when trust judgments about a person do not necessarily need to be accurate, a fast access to memories predicting potential harm may be important to guide social behaviour in daily life.
Global change threatens the maintenance of ecosystem functions that are shaped by the persistence and dynamics of populations. It has been shown that the persistence of species increases if they possess larger trait adaptability. Here, we investigate whether trait adaptability also affects the robustness of population dynamics of interacting species and thereby shapes the reliability of ecosystem functions that are driven by these dynamics. We model co‐adaptation in a predator–prey system as changes to predator offense and prey defense due to evolution or phenotypic plasticity. We investigate how trait adaptation affects the robustness of population dynamics against press perturbations to environmental parameters and against pulse perturbations targeting species abundances and their trait values. Robustness of population dynamics is characterized by resilience, elasticity, and resistance. In addition to employing established measures for resilience and elasticity against pulse perturbations (extinction probability and return time), we propose the warping distance as a new measure for resistance against press perturbations, which compares the shapes and amplitudes of pre‐ and post‐perturbation population dynamics. As expected, we find that the robustness of population dynamics depends on the speed of adaptation, but in nontrivial ways. Elasticity increases with speed of adaptation as the system returns more rapidly to the pre‐perturbation state. Resilience, in turn, is enhanced by intermediate speeds of adaptation, as here trait adaptation dampens biomass oscillations. The resistance of population dynamics strongly depends on the target of the press perturbation, preventing a simple relationship with the adaptation speed. In general, we find that low robustness often coincides with high amplitudes of population dynamics. Hence, amplitudes may indicate the robustness against perturbations also in other natural systems with similar dynamics. Our findings show that besides counteracting extinctions, trait adaptation indeed strongly affects the robustness of population dynamics against press and pulse perturbations.
In natural heterogeneous environments, the fitness of animals is strongly influenced by the availability and composition of food. Food quantity and biochemical quality constraints may affect individual traits of consumers differently, mediating fitness response variation within and among species. Using a multifactorial experimental approach, we assessed population growth rate, fecundity, and survival of six strains of the two closely related freshwater rotifer species Brachionus calyciflorus sensu stricto and Brachionus fernandoi. Therefore, rotifers fed low and high concentrations of three algal species differing in their biochemical food quality. Additionally, we explored the potential of a single limiting biochemical nutrient to mediate variations in population growth response. Therefore, rotifers fed a sterol-free alga, which we supplemented with cholesterol-containing liposomes. Co-limitation by food quantity and biochemical food quality resulted in differences in population growth rates among strains, but not between species, although effects on fecundity and survival differed between species. The effect of cholesterol supplementation on population growth was strain-specific but not species-specific. We show that fitness response variations within and among species can be mediated by biochemical food quality. Dietary constraints thus may act as evolutionary drivers on physiological traits of consumers, which may have strong implications for various ecological interactions.
Background
Sand is an easy-to-access, cost-free resource that can be used to treat pronated feet (PF). Therefore, the aims of this study were to contrast the effects of walking on stable ground versus walking on sand on ground reaction forces (GRFs) and electromyographic (EMG) activity of selected lower limb muscles in PF individuals compared with healthy controls.
Methods
Twenty-nine controls aged 22.2±2.5 years and 30 PF individuals aged 22.2±1.9 years were enrolled in this study. Participants walked at preferred speed and in randomized order over level ground and sand. A force plate was included in the walkway to collect GRFs. Muscle activities were recorded using EMG system.
Results
No statistically significant between-group differences were found in preferred walking speed when walking on stable ground (PF: 1.33±0.12 m/s; controls: 1.35±0.14 m/s; p = 0.575; d = 0.15) and sand (PF: 1.19±0.11 m/s; controls: 1.23±0.18 m/s; p = 0.416; d = 0.27). Irrespective of the group, walking on sand (1.21±0.15 m/s) resulted in significantly lower gait speed compared with stable ground walking (1.34±0.13 m/s) (p<0.001; d = 0.93). Significant main effects of “surface” were found for peak posterior GRFs at heel contact, time to peak for peak lateral GRFs at heel contact, and peak anterior GRFs during push-off (p<0.044; d = 0.27–0.94). Pair-wise comparisons revealed significantly smaller peak posterior GRFs at heel contact (p = 0.005; d = 1.17), smaller peak anterior GRFs during push-off (p = 0.001; d = 1.14), and time to peak for peak lateral GRFs (p = 0.044; d = 0.28) when walking on sand. No significant main effects of “group” were observed for peak GRFs and their time to peak (p>0.05; d = 0.06–1.60). We could not find any significant group by surface interactions for peak GRFs and their time to peak. Significant main effects of “surface” were detected for anterior-posterior impulse and peak positive free moment amplitude (p<0.048; d = 0.54–0.71). Pair-wise comparisons revealed a significantly larger peak positive free moment amplitude (p = 0.010; d = 0.71) and a lower anterior-posterior impulse (p = 0.048; d = 0.38) when walking on sand. We observed significant main effects of “group” for the variable loading rate (p<0.030; d = 0.59). Pair-wise comparisons revealed significantly lower loading rates in PF compared with controls (p = 0.030; d = 0.61). Significant group by surface interactions were observed for the parameter peak positive free moment amplitude (p<0.030; d = 0.59). PF individuals exhibited a significantly lower peak positive free moment amplitude (p = 0.030, d = 0.41) when walking on sand. With regards to EMG, no significant main effects of “surface”, main effects of “group”, and group by surface interactions were observed for the recorded muscles during the loading and push-off phases (p>0.05; d = 0.00–0.53).
Conclusions
The observed lower velocities during walking on sand compared with stable ground were accompanied by lower peak positive free moments during the push-off phase and loading rates during the loading phase. Our findings of similar lower limb muscle activities during walking on sand compared with stable ground in PF together with lower free moment amplitudes, vertical loading rates, and lower walking velocities on sand may indicate more relative muscle activity on sand compared with stable ground. This needs to be verified in future studies.