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Electricity production contributes to a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and is thus an important driver of climate change. To fulfil the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) needs a rapid transition to a fully decarbonised power production system. Presumably, such a system will be largely based on renewables. So far, many EU countries have supported a shift towards renewables such as solar and wind power using support schemes, but the economic and political context is changing. Renewables are now cheaper than ever before and have become cost-competitive with conventional technologies. Therefore, European policymakers are striving to better integrate renewables into a competitive market and to increase the cost-effectiveness of the expansion of renewables. The first step was to replace previous fixed-price schemes with competitive auctions. In a second step, these auctions have become more technology-open. Finally, some governments may phase out any support for renewables and fully expose them to the competitive power market.
However, such policy changes may be at odds with the need to rapidly expand renewables and meet national targets due to market characteristics and investors’ risk perception. Without support, price risks are higher, and it may be difficult to meet an investor’s income expectations. Furthermore, policy changes across different countries could have unexpected effects if power markets are interconnected and investors able to shift their investments. Finally, in multi-technology auctions, technologies may dominate, which can be a risk for long-term power system reliability. Therefore, in my thesis, I explore the effects of phasing out support policies for renewables, of coordinating these phase-outs across countries, and of using multi-technology designs. I expand the public policy literature about investment behaviour and policy design as well as policy change and coordination, and I further develop an agent-based model.
The main questions of my thesis are what the cost and deployment effects of gradually exposing renewables to market forces would be and how coordination between countries affects investors’ decisions and market prices.. In my three contributions to the academic literature, I use different methods and come to the following results. In the first contribution, I use a conjoint analysis and market simulation to evaluate the effects of phasing out support or reintroducing feed-in tariffs from the perspective of investors. I find that a phase-out leads to investment shifts, either to other still-supported technologies or to other countries that continue to offer support. I conclude that the coordination of policy changes avoids such shifts.. In the second contribution, I integrate the empirically-derived preferences from the first contribution in to an agent-based power system model of two countries to simulate the effects of ending auctions for renewables. I find that this slows the energy transition, and that cross-border effects are relevant. Consequently, continued support is necessary to meet the national renewables targets. In the third contribution, I analyse the outcome of past multi-technology auctions using descriptive statistics, regression analysis as well as case study comparisons. I find that the outcomes are skewed towards single technologies. This cannot be explained by individual design elements of the auctions, but rather results from context-specific and country-specific characteristics. Based on this, I discuss potential implications for long-term power system reliability.
The main conclusions of my thesis are that a complete phase-out of renewables support would slow down the energy transition and thus jeopardize climate targets, and that multi-technology auctions may pose a risk for some countries, especially those that cannot regulate an unbalanced power plant portfolio in the long term. If policymakers decide to continue supporting renewables, they may consider adopting technology-specific auctions to better steer their portfolio. In contrast, if policymakers still want to phase out support, they should coordinate these policy changes with other countries. Otherwise, overall transition costs can be higher, because investment decisions shift to still-supported but more expensive technologies.
The planetary commons
(2024)
The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no- analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework—the planetary commons—which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.
Die Nutzung von Informations- und Kommunikationstechnik (IKT), Fachverfahren und die Automatisierung von Prozessen verändern die Sachbearbeitung und Leistungserstellung in der Verwaltung und somit die Tätigkeiten, Arbeitsbedingungen und Personalstrukturen. Bei der Antragsbearbeitung und Bescheiderstellung in der Ordnungs- und Leistungsverwaltung erhält IKT nicht nur eine unterstützende, sondern zunehmend auch eine leitende oder entscheidende Rolle. Abhängig von der konkreten Ausgestaltung kann die fortschreitende Digitalisierung eine ganzheitliche Sachbearbeitung ermöglichen, aber auch einschränken. Insgesamt kann sie zu einer Neuordnung des Berufsfeldes öffentlicher Dienst führen.
Comparative vote switching
(2024)
Large literatures focus on voter reactions to parties’ policy strategies, agency, or legislative performance. While many inquiries make explicit assumptions about the direction and magnitude of voter flows between parties, comparative empirical analyses of vote switching remain rare. In this article, we overcome three challenges that have previously impeded the comparative study of dynamic party competition based on voter flows: we present a novel conceptual framework for studying voter retention, defection, and attraction in multiparty systems, showcase a newly compiled data infrastructure that marries comparative vote switching data with information on party behavior and party systems in over 250 electoral contexts, and introduce a statistical model that renders our conceptual framework operable. These innovations enable first-time inquiries into the polyadic vote switching patterns underlying multiparty competition and unlock major research potentials on party competition and party system change.
Dirty capitalism
(2024)
Von Garzweiler bis zum Great Pacific Garbage Patch zeigt sich offenkundig: Die kapitalistische Vergesellschaftung ist dreckig. Umso mehr braucht kritische politisch-ökonomische oder sozio-ökonomische Bildung einen gesellschaftstheoretisch fundierten Kapitalismusbegriff. Der Ansatz des Dirty Capitalism leistet hierzu einen expliziten Beitrag. Er greift die vielfältige Kritik an Vorstellungen und analytischer Reichweite eines "reinen" Kapitalismus, wie sie z.B. auch im Ansatz des racial capitalism formuliert wird, auf und erweitert die Analyseperspektive über Klassenverhältnisse hinaus auf Rassismus, (Post-)Kolonialismus, Geschlechter- und Naturverhältnisse. Im Band wird das Konzept weiterentwickelt und als Zugang für die kritische politische Bildung und Politikdidaktik diskutiert und empirisch genutzt.
Der Band präsentiert eine systematische Aufbereitung empirischer Befunde zum Lobbyismus in Deutschland und vermittelt, wie Lobbyist*innen, Entscheidungsträger*innen und institutionelle Rahmen miteinander interagieren. Untersucht werden politische Aktivitäten von sozialen Bewegungen, Verbänden, Unternehmen und Beratungsfirmen im Bundestag, der Bundesregierung und der Öffentlichkeit.
Werner Krause and Christina Gahn argue that we need to pay more attention to how the media communicates the results of opinion polls to the public. Reporting methodological details, such as margins of error, can alter citizens’ vote choices on election day. This has important implications for elections around the world
Gut zwei Jahrzehnte nach dem Millenniumsgipfel der Vereinten Nationen bleiben berechtigte Zweifel an der Wirksamkeit von Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (EZ). Ist das Politikfeld von den Realitäten überholt worden? Welchen Beitrag haben Entwicklungstheorien für die Weiterentwicklung von Entwicklungspolitik leisten können? Der Beitrag zieht eine Bilanz, die von der ersten Entwicklungsdekade in den 1960er-Jahren bis zu den Folgen der Covid-19-Pandemie reicht. Er plädiert für eine herrschaftskritische Weiterentwicklung des Entwicklungsbegriffs und für eine Stärkung globaler Kooperation.
Diskursive Perspektiven auf internationale Politik haben in den vergangenen Jahren an Relevanz und Popularität gewonnen. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt zunächst einen Überblick über verschiedene Spielarten diskursiver Ansätze in den Internationalen Beziehungen, um sich dann vor allem poststrukturalistisch inspirierten Diskursarbeiten zu widmen. Poststrukturalistische Ansätze, so argumentieren wir, sind besonders interessant für die Disziplin der IB, da sie vier spezifische Gewinne bieten: Erstens erlauben sie eine kritische Perspektive auf Fragen internationaler Politik, zweitens hilft eine poststrukturalistische Perspektive dabei, den oft übersehenen politischen Charakter sozialer Realität herauszustellen, drittens halten sie dazu an, die eigene Sichtweise des/der Forschenden zu reflektieren und viertens erlaubt es eine poststrukturalistische Vorgehensweise mit ihrem Fokus auf „Wie-möglich-Fragen“, eine alternative analytische Perspektive zu dominanten erklärenden Ansätzen einzunehmen.
Der vorliegende Beitrag, der sich weniger als Fachbeitrag, sondern vielmehr als Erfahrungsbericht aus der Praxis versteht, berichtet von unterschiedlichen Versuchen, die Mensch-Tier-Beziehung in den schulischen Kontext einzubringen und somit der unzureichenden Beachtung der Thematik entgegenzuwirken. Nachdem überblicksartig die Relevanz der Mensch-Tier-Thematik herausgestellt und auf diese Weise die Notwendigkeit einer unterrichtlichen Beschäftigung mit dem Verhältnis von Menschen und anderen Tieren begründet wird, wird zunächst von einem ersten Versuch berichtet, (angehende) Lehrkräfte im Rahmen eines Workshops am Studienseminar Potsdam für die Relevanz der Mensch-Tier-Thematik zu sensibilisieren sowie über eine mögliche Umsetzung in den verschiedenen Unterrichtsfächern zu informieren. Anschließend werden – exemplarisch für den Politikunterricht – zwei Unterrichtsstunden, die die Mensch-Tier-Beziehung auf verschiedene Weise in den Politikunterricht einbeziehen, sowie die im Rahmen der Durchführung gesammelten Erfahrungen vorgestellt.
Each year, donor countries spend billions of Euros on development cooperation. Not surprisingly, a large strand of research has emerged which examines the impact of development cooperation. A sub-discipline within this strand of the literature deals with the question of whether the impact or effectiveness of development cooperation depends on the quality of the recipient country's policy and institutional environment. Over hundreds of studies have assessed this question at the macro level. In so doing, most of these studies test whether a potential effect of aid on the growth of a recipient country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is conditional on the country's policy and institutional environment. However, even after decades of research and hundreds of studies, no conclusive result has been found. One of the main reasons for the inconclusive state of the literature is that most macro-level studies have to deal with a high risk of endogeneity, treat aid as nothing but a pure income transfer, and rely on low-quality GDP data. To solve these three methodical issues, some authors have started to change the analytical focus from the macro to the micro level. Thus, these authors assess the determinants for the performance of individual development projects instead of the determinants for an effect of aid on GDP. Yet, even though the number of studies focusing on the micro level has increased steadily over the last few years, the state of the literature on the determinants for the performance of development projects still contains multiple highly relevant research gaps. The present thesis seeks to address three of these research gaps. The first research gap addressed by this thesis is related to the specific type of development cooperation. So far, nearly all existing studies focus on projects by Multilateral Development Banks. Research on the determinants for the performance of bilateral development projects is still rare. Thus, even though donors pledge to implement effective development projects, there are hardly any micro-level studies on bilateral projects. So far, only three studies use a sample which includes bilateral projects. Yet, none of the three studies assess the determinants for the performance of bilateral technical development projects. The first paper in the present thesis (GIZ paper) seeks to address this research gap by assessing the determinants for the performance of projects by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), a bilateral state-owned aid agency active in the area of technical cooperation. The results of the paper indicate that some but not all of the existing theoretical arguments can be extended to bilateral technical projects as well.. For example, the level of market interventions in the recipient county only affects the performance of financial development projects, while the recipient country’s government capacity affects both technical and financial development projects. The paper also indicates that effects of determinants may vary among project sectors. The paper also highlights a dilemma of technical development cooperation. The countries with low government capacity are usually the ones most in need of technical cooperation projects. But, at the same time, they are also the countries in which these projects have the poorest performance The second research gap addressed by this thesis is related to one specific factor in the policy and institutional environment of recipient countries, namely corruption. This determinant is often cited as essential for project performance but has gained surprisingly little coverage in empirical studies. The few existing studies on the effect of corruption on project performance are inconclusive. Some find a statistically significant correlation, while others do not. Furthermore, so far, all existing studies use corruption perception indices as a measurement for corruption, despite the fact that these indices have well-known deficits when it comes to this research topic. One of these deficits is that such indices do not distinguish between different forms of corruption, even though it is likely that the effect of corruption will vary depending on the type of development project and form of corruption. The second paper in this thesis (Corruption paper) seeks to address this inconclusive state of the research while focusing on one specific form of corruption, namely bribery between private firms and public officials. The paper finds a small but statistically significant correlation between the corruption level and the performance of World Bank projects. The systematic effect of corruption on project performance confirms the need to consider the risk of corruption in the design and during the implementation of projects. Nonetheless, the relatively small effect of corruption and the low pseudo R-squareds advise not to overestimate the relevance of corruption for project performance. At least for the project level, the paper finds no indication that corruption is a primary obstacle to aid effectiveness. The third research gap addressed by this thesis is related to one specific sample, namely recipient countries of the International Development Association (IDA). The question of whether the policy and institutional environment affects project performance is of particular relevance for these countries, given that the World Bank's ratings on a country's policy and institutional environment decide how much IDA resources it receives. One core justification of such an allocation system is that it helps to steer more resources to places where they are most effective. However, so far, there is no conclusive empirical evidence for this statement. The only study specifically focusing on this topic, a study by the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank from 2010, has essential methodological limitations. The third paper of this thesis (CPR paper) seeks to address this research gap by testing whether a more refined analysis confirms the assumption of previous studies that the policy and institutional environment of IDA-recipient countries, measured by the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment ratings, has an effect on the performance of World Bank projects. Overall, neither the main regression models nor any of the robustness tests indicate a substantial correlation between the policy and institutional environment and project performance. Only for Investments Loans is the coefficient large enough to assume some effect. The overall results not only contradict the results of previous studies, but also raise strong doubts around one of the core justifications for the allocation system of the IDA. All three papers rely on a statistical large-N analysis of the performance ratings of individual development projects. These ratings are usually assigned based on the final evaluation of a project and indicate the merit or worth of an activity. The merit or worth of an activity itself is measured by criteria like relevance, effectiveness, and efficiency. In the case of the two papers on World Bank projects, the needed data stem from different databases of the World Bank. The relevant data for the GIZ paper are gathered from internal evaluation reports of the GIZ. Logistic regressions are applied as the main analytical tool. Overall, the three papers show that the policy and institutional environment of recipient countries matters for project performance, but only to a small degree and under certain circumstances. This result highlights that many researchers and practitioners tend to overestimate the role that the policy and institutional environment of recipient countries plays in project performance. Furthermore, the thesis shows that authors of future studies should consider possible interactions between project- and country-level determinants whenever possible, both in their theoretical arguments and statistical models. Otherwise, the debate on the determinants for project performance is at risk of degenerating into a statistics tournament without any connection to reality.