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Reacting, fast and slow
(2021)
The COVID-19 pandemic created extraordinary challenges for governments to safeguard the well-being of their people. To what extent has leaders' reliance on scientific advice shaped government responses to the COVID-19 outbreak? We argue that leaders who tend to orient themselves on expert advice realized the extent of the crisis earlier. Consequently, these governments would adopt containment measures relatively quickly, despite the high uncertainty they faced. Over time, differences in government responses based on the use of science would dissipate due to herding effects. We test our argument on data combining 163 government responses to the pandemic with national- and individual-level characteristics. Consistent with our argument, we find that countries governed by politicians with a stronger technocratic mentality, approximated by holding a PhD, adopted restrictive containment measures faster in the early, but not in the later, stages of the crisis. This importance of expert-based leadership plausibly extends to other large-scale societal crises.
It is commonly known that irresponsible alcohol use can have adverse effects. For some people, it results in health problems, for others in productivity loss, and some experience the worst possible outcome of alcohol misuse - death. This paper estimates the effect of reduced alcohol sales hours on alcohol-attributable mortality (AAM) in Estonia. Using novel mortality data from 1997 to 2015, this paper analyzes the effect of alcohol sales policies at both the county level and the country level. By applying the difference-in-differences method and the ARIMA model, this paper finds that the alcohol sales policy reduced AAM to between 1.710 and 2.401 deaths per 100,000 per month, which equals a reduction of 31% to 40% in AAM deaths. These findings suggest that individuals who are the most at risk of dying from alcohol-attributable causes of death benefit remarkably from reduced alcohol availability.