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Using novel longitudinal data, this paper studies the short- and medium-term effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 on social trust of adolescents in Germany. Comparing adolescents who responded to our survey shortly before the start of the war with those who responded shortly after the conflict began and applying difference-in-differences (DiD) models over time, we find a significant decline in the outcome after the war started. These findings provide new evidence on how armed conflicts influence social trust and well-being among young people in a country not directly involved in the war.
Residential segregation is a wide-spread phenomenon that can be observed in almost every major city.
In these urban areas residents with different racial or socioeconomic background tend to form homogeneous clusters.
Schelling's famous agent-based model for residential segregation explains how such clusters can form even if all agents are tolerant, i.e., if they agree to live in mixed neighborhoods.
For segregation to occur, all it needs is a slight bias towards agents preferring similar neighbors.
Very recently, Schelling's model has been investigated from a game-theoretic point of view with selfish agents that strategically select their residential location.
In these games, agents can improve on their current location by performing a location swap with another agent who is willing to swap.
We significantly deepen these investigations by studying the influence of the underlying topology modeling the residential area on the existence of equilibria, the Price of Anarchy and on the dynamic properties of the resulting strategic multi-agent system. Moreover, as a new conceptual contribution, we also consider the influence of locality, i.e., if the location swaps are restricted to swaps of neighboring agents.
We give improved almost tight bounds on the Price of Anarchy for arbitrary underlying graphs and we present (almost) tight bounds for regular graphs, paths and cycles. Moreover, we give almost tight bounds for grids, which are commonly used in empirical studies.
For grids we also show that locality has a severe impact on the game dynamics.
In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern was that her decision would signal an open-door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide – thus further increasing migration to Germany and making the country permanently more attractive to irregular and humanitarian migrants. This ‘pull-effect’ hypothesis has been a mainstay of policy discussions ever since. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, not appearing welcoming to migrants has become a guiding principle for the asylum policy of many large receiving countries. In this article, we exploit the unique case study that Merkel's 2015 decision provides for answering the fundamental question of whether welcoming migration policies have sustained effects on migration towards destination countries. We analyze an extensive range of data on migration inflows, migration aspirations and online search interest between 2000 and 2020. The results reject the ‘pull effect’ hypothesis while reaffirming states’ capacity to adapt to changing contexts and regulate migration.
Background
Many high-income countries are grappling with severe labour shortages in the healthcare sector. Refugees and recent migrants present a potential pool for staff recruitment due to their higher unemployment rates, younger age, and lower average educational attainment compared to the host society's labour force. Despite this, refugees and recent migrants, often possessing limited language skills in the destination country, are frequently excluded from traditional recruitment campaigns conducted solely in the host country’s language. Even those with intermediate language skills may feel excluded, as destination-country language advertisements are perceived as targeting only native speakers. This study experimentally assesses the effectiveness of a recruitment campaign for nursing positions in a German care facility, specifically targeting Arabic and Ukrainian speakers through Facebook advertisements.
Methods
We employ an experimental design (AB test) approximating a randomized controlled trial, utilizing Facebook as the delivery platform. We compare job advertisements for nursing positions in the native languages of Arabic and Ukrainian speakers (treatment) with the same advertisements displayed in German (control) for the same target group in the context of a real recruitment campaign for nursing jobs in Berlin, Germany. Our evaluation includes comparing link click rates, visits to the recruitment website, initiated applications, and completed applications, along with the unit cost of these indicators. We assess statistical significance in group differences using the Chi-squared test.
Results
We find that recruitment efforts in the origin language were 5.6 times (Arabic speakers) and 1.9 times (Ukrainian speakers) more effective in initiating nursing job applications compared to the standard model of German-only advertisements among recent migrants and refugees. Overall, targeting refugees and recent migrants was 2.4 (Ukrainians) and 10.8 (Arabic) times cheaper than targeting the reference group of German speakers indicating higher interest among these groups.
Conclusions
The results underscore the substantial benefits for employers in utilizing targeted recruitment via social media aimed at foreign-language communities within the country. This strategy, which is low-cost and low effort compared to recruiting abroad or investing in digitalization, has the potential for broad applicability in numerous high-income countries with sizable migrant communities. Increased employment rates among underemployed refugee and migrant communities, in turn, contribute to reducing poverty, social exclusion, public expenditure, and foster greater acceptance of newcomers within the receiving society.
‘Modern talking’
(2024)
Despite growing interest, we lack a clear understanding of how the arguably ambiguous phenomenon of agile is perceived in government practice. This study aims to alleviate this puzzle by investigating how managers and employees in German public sector organisations make sense of agile as a spreading management fashion in the form of narratives. This is important because narratives function as innovation carriers that ultimately influence the manifestations of the concept in organisations. Based on a multi-case study of 31 interviews and 24 responses to a qualitative online survey conducted in 2021 and 2022, we provide insights into what public sector managers, employees and consultants understand (and, more importantly, do not understand) as agile and how they weave it into their existing reality of bureaucratic organisations. We uncover three meta-narratives of agile government, which we label ‘renew’, ‘complement’ and ‘integrate’. In particular, the meta-narratives differ in their positioning of how agile interacts with the characteristics of bureaucratic organisations. Importantly, we also show that agile as a management fad serves as a projection surface for what actors want from a modern and digital organisation. Thus, the vocabulary of agile government within the narratives is inherently linked to other diffusing phenomena such as new work or digitalisation.
We examine how the gender of business owners is related to the wages paid to female relative to male employees working in their firms. Using Finnish register data and employing firm fixed effects, we find that the gender pay gap is—starting from a gender pay gap of 11 to 12%—two to three percentage points lower for hourly wages in female-owned firms than in male-owned firms. Results are robust to how the wage is measured, as well as to various further robustness checks. More importantly, we find substantial differences between industries. While, for instance, in the manufacturing sector, the gender of the owner plays no role in the gender pay gap, in several service sector industries, like ICT or business services, no or a negligible gender pay gap can be found, but only when firms are led by female business owners. Businesses with male ownership maintain a gender pay gap of around 10% also in the latter industries. With increasing firm size, the influence of the gender of the owner, however, fades. In large firms, it seems that others—firm managers—determine wages and no differences in the pay gap are observed between male- and female-owned firms.
Money matters!
(2024)
This paper examines the context dependency of attitudes toward maternal employment. We test three sets of factors that may affect these attitudes—economic benefits, normative obligations, and child-related consequences—by analyzing data from a unique survey experimental design implemented in a large-scale household panel survey in Germany (17,388 observations from 3,494 respondents). Our results show that the economic benefits associated with maternal employment are the most important predictor of attitudes supporting maternal employment. Moreover, we find that attitudes toward maternal employment vary by individual, household, and contextual characteristics (in particular, childcare quality). We interpret this variation as an indication that negative attitudes toward maternal employment do not necessarily reflect gender essentialism; rather, gender role attitudes are contingent upon the frames individuals have in mind.
This article examines how challenger parties enter the political arena and the effect of this entry by looking at the Italian 5 Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle – M5S). We explain the M5S's entry strategy in 2013 using the spatial approach to party competition and employing expert survey data collected for each national election between 2008 and 2018. These data allow us to analyse the changing spatial configuration of Italian politics due to the increasing salience of pro/anti-EU and pro/anti-immigration dimensions. We then apply the theoretical notion of the uncovered set (UCS) to trace how the M5S's entry reshaped the overall space of party competition, causing a realignment of existing parties. This work contributes to the ongoing debate on the electoral success of challenger parties and the emerging cleavages and polarization of party systems in Western European countries.
Physical fitness of primary school children differs depending on their timing of school enrollment
(2023)
Previous research has shown that children who were enrolled to school according to the legal key date (i.e., keyage children, between eight and nine years in third grade) exhibited a linear physical fitness development in the ninth year of life. In contrast, children who were enrolled with a delay (i.e., older-than-keyage children [OTK], between nine and ten years in third grade) exhibited a lower physical fitness compared to what would be expected for their age. In these studies, cross-sectional age differences within third grade and timing of school enrollment were confounded. The present study investigated the longitudinal development of keyage and OTK children from third to fifth grade. This design also afforded a comparison of the two groups at the same average chronological age, that is a dissociation of the effects of timing of school enrollment and age. We tested six physical fitness components: cardiorespiratory endurance, coordination, speed, power of lower and upper limbs, and static balance. 1502 children (i.e., 1206 keyage and 296 OTK children) from 35 schools were tested in third, fourth, and fifth grade. Except for cardiorespiratory endurance, both groups developed from third to fourth and from fourth to fifth grade and keyage children outperformed OTK children at the average ages of 9.5 or 10.5 years. For cardiorespiratory endurance, there was no significant gain from fourth to fifth grade and keyage and OTK children did not differ significantly at 10.5 years of age. One reason for a delayed school enrollment could be that a child is (or is perceived as) biologically younger than their chronological age at the school entry examination, implying a negative correlation between chronological and biological age for OTK children. Indeed, a simple reflection of chronological age brought the developmental rate of the chronologically youngest OTK children in line with the developmental rate observed for keyage children, but did not eliminate all differences. The mapping of chronological and biological age of OTK children and other possible reasons for lower physical fitness of OTK children remain a task for future research.
Divorce à l’allemande
(2022)
Avec la création de l’Académie de sociologie (AS), le champ sociologique allemand compte désormais une nouvelle association professionnelle qui s’ajoute à la Société allemande de sociologie (DGS), établie de longue date. Cet article passe en revue les principales positions discursives, les sujets de controverse majeurs ainsi que les grandes lignes de fracture qui ont conduit à ce schisme. Les conflits contemporains sont interprétés au travers d’une représentation empirique du champ de la sociologie allemande. De manière générale, la sociologie allemande contemporaine apparaît une fois de plus dominée par deux camps opposés, arbitrairement définis mais puissants, qui se partagent la domination d’une discipline, pourtant réellement pluraliste.
The paper argues that economists’ position-taking in discourses of crises should be understood in the light of economists’ positions in the academic field of economics. This hypothesis is investigated by performing a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) on a prosopographical data set of 144 French economists who positioned themselves between 2008 and 2021 in controversies over the euro crisis, the French political economic model, and French economics. In these disciplinary controversies, different forms of (post-)national academic capital are used by economists to either initiate change or defend the status quo. These strategies are then interpreted as part of more general power struggles over the basic national or post-national constitution and legitimate governance of economy and society.
This contribution presents an analysis of the structure and conflictual dynamics of contemporary German sociology which has recently separated into two professional societies. Using geometric data analysis, we present an empirical construction of the power/knowledge structure of the field, its paradigmatic plurality, and the various forms of sociological practices involved.
In this visualization, the authors show changes in family patterns by different race groups across two cohorts. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (born from 1957 to 1965) and 1997 (born from 1980 to 1984), the authors visualize the relationship-parenthood state distributions at each age between 15 and 35 years by race and cohort. The results suggest the rise of cohabiting mothers and the decline of married and divorced mothers among women born from 1980 to 1984. Black women born from 1980 to 1984 were more likely to experience single/childless and single/parent status compared with Black women born from 1957 to 1965. Although with some visible postponement in the recent cohort, white women in both cohorts were more likely to experience married/parent status than other race groups. The decline in married/parent status across the two generations was sharpest among Hispanic women. These descriptive findings highlight the importance of identifying race when discussing changes in family formation and dissolution trends across generations.
State- and private-led search-and-rescue are hypothesized to foster irregular migration (and thereby migrant fatalities) by altering the decision calculus associated with the journey. We here investigate this ‘pull factor’ claim by focusing on the Central Mediterranean route, the most frequented and deadly irregular migration route towards Europe during the past decade. Based on three intervention periods—(1) state-led Mare Nostrum, (2) private-led search-and-rescue, and (3) coordinated pushbacks by the Libyan Coast Guard—which correspond to substantial changes in laws, policies, and practices of search-and-rescue in the Mediterranean, we are able to test the ‘pull factor’ claim by employing an innovative machine learning method in combination with causal inference. We employ a Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the effects of these three intervention periods on the migration flow as measured by crossing attempts (i.e., time-series aggregate counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths), adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration. We combine multiple sources of traditional and non-traditional data to build a synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. Results show that our predictive modeling approach accurately captures the behavior of the target time-series during the various pre-intervention periods of interest. A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that pushback policies did affect the migration flow, but that the search-and-rescue periods did not yield a discernible difference between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts. Hence we do not find support for search-and-rescue as a driver of irregular migration. In general, this modeling approach lends itself to forecasting migration flows with the goal of answering causal queries in migration research.
Das Risiko, durch einen Suizid im Gefängnis zu versterben, ist erhöht. Während der COVID-19-Pandemie wurden zum Infektionsschutz zahlreiche Maßnahmen, die beispielsweise eine deutliche Minderung der Kontakt- und Behandlungsangebote zur Folge hatten, eingeführt. Im Rahmen eines Kohortenvergleichs der Suizide und ausgewählter Merkmale der Suizident:innen in den Zeiträumen vom April 2017 bis zum Dezember 2019 sowie vom April 2020 bis zum Dezember 2022 wird untersucht, ob es eine Veränderung der Suizide während der Pandemie gab. Im Ergebnis zeigen sich eine Zunahme der Suizide während der Pandemie, insbesondere in den ersten 14 Tagen der Haft, und eine Zunahme der Suizide von Suizident:innen mit erhöhter Vulnerabilität. Keine Unterschiede wurden in den allgemeinen Risikomerkmalen für Suizide im Gefängnis festgestellt. Es ergeben sich Hinweise auf eine suizidpräventive Wirkung der Kontakt- und Behandlungsangebote. Daraus ergibt sich die Notwendigkeit, intensivere Präventionsangebote für Gefangene mit erhöhter Vulnerabilität bzw. geringerer Resilienz anzubieten.
Job satisfaction is a major driver of an individual’s subjective well-being and thus affects public health, societal prosperity, and organisations, as dissatisfied employees are less productive and more likely to change jobs. However, changing jobs does not necessarily lead to higher job satisfaction in the long run. Previous studies have shown, instead, that changing jobs only increases job satisfaction for a short period of time before it gradually falls back to similar levels as before. This phenomenon is known as the ’honeymoon–hangover’ pattern. In our study, we identify an important new moderator of the relation between job change and job satisfaction: the job–education match of job changes. Based on relative deprivation theory, we argue that job changes from being overeducated in a job lowers the likelihood of negative comparisons and thus increases the honeymoon period, lessens the hangover period, and increases long-term job satisfaction. We use data from the Socio-Economic Panel ranging from 1994–2018 and focus specifically on individual periods of employees before and after job changes (n = 134,404). Our results confirm that a change to a job that requires a matched education has a stronger and longer-lasting effect on job satisfaction, and that this effect is slightly lower for respondents born abroad.
The article analyzes the investigations conducted by the Berlin police into the subsequent perpetrator of the vehicle-ramming attack at a Berlin Christmas market on December 19, 2016. We explore why the police closed these investigations prematurely and thereby focus on an attempt to prevent lone actor terrorism. The analysis shows that the police closed its investigations owing to organizational dynamics driven by an increasing need to justify further resource investments in the face of absent conclusive evidence and scarce resources in relation to the organizational case ecology. We propose hypotheses for future research and formulate three contributions to existing research on the sociology of police, terrorism prevention, and lone actor research.
Der Artikel analysiert aus organisationssoziologischer Perspektive wie die Bundeswehr Gleichstellungsrecht umsetzt. Das zentrale Argument lautet, dass die Bundeswehr das Gleichstellungsrecht managerialisiert, indem sie institutionalisierte Praktiken adaptiert, die es erlauben, das Gleichstellungsrecht für den Zweck der Personalgewinnung auszudeuten. Die Adaption dieser Praktiken wird maßgeblich dadurch begünstigt, dass sich das Gleichstellungsrecht als Lösung mit dem Problem der zukünftigen Personalgewinnung verknüpfen lässt, nachdem die Bundesregierung die Wehrpflicht aussetzte und beschloss, die Bundeswehr wieder zu vergrößern. Der beschriebene Prozess führt auch dazu, dass die Bundeswehr in der Umsetzung des Gleichstellungsrechtes zunehmend großen Unternehmen ähnlicher wird. Insgesamt leistet die vorliegende Studie einen Beitrag zur Analyse der Beziehung staatlicher Organisationen zu ihrer rechtlichen Umwelt.
Die Mehrheit aktueller Studien schätzt das Transformationspotenzial digitaler Technologien für Organisationen hoch ein. In Auseinandersetzung mit dieser Einschätzung entwickelt der Artikel eine konzeptionelle organisationssoziologische Perspektive auf das Verhältnis von Organisation und digitalen Technologien. Wir nutzen diese Perspektive, um den Fall des Predictive Policing in Deutschland zu betrachten und die Entscheidung zur Adaption der Technologie, ihre organisationale Situierung sowie die Rolle des Organisationstyps zu diskutieren. Unsere Perspektive führt zu einem zurückhaltenden Urteil über das Transformationspotenzial dieser digitalen Technologie, die wir daher als Reform unter anderen Reformen begreifen. Insgesamt argumentieren wir dafür, Digitalisierung stärker als bisher als heterogenen Prozess zu verstehen.
Social theory has long predicted that social mobility, in particular downward social mobility, is detrimental to the well-being of individuals. Dissociative and “falling from grace” theories suggest that mobility is stressful due to the weakening of social ties, feelings of alienation, and loss of status. In light of these theories, it is a puzzle that the majority of quantitative studies in this area have shown null results. Our approach to resolve the puzzle is two-fold. First, we argue for a broader conception of the mobility process than is often used and thus focus on intragenerational occupational class mobility rather than restricting ourselves to the more commonly studied intergenerational mobility. Second, we argue that self-reported measures may be biased by habituation (or “entrenched deprivation”). Using nurse-collected health and biomarker data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2010–2012, N = 4,123), we derive a measure of allostatic load as an objective gauge of physiological “wear and tear” and compare patterns of mobility effects with self-reports of health using diagonal reference models. Our findings indicate a strong class gradient in both allostatic load and self-rated health, and that both first and current job matter for current well-being outcomes. However, in terms of the effects of mobility itself, we find that intragenerational social mobility is consequential for allostatic load, but not for self-rated health. Downward mobility is detrimental and upward mobility beneficial for well-being as assessed by allostatic load. Thus, these findings do not support the idea of generalized stress from dissociation, but they do support the “falling from grace” hypothesis of negative downward mobility effects. Our findings have a further implication, namely that the differences in mobility effects between the objective and subjective outcome infer the presence of entrenched deprivation. Null results in studies of self-rated outcomes may therefore be a methodological artifact, rather than an outright rejection of decades-old social theory.
For many years scholars and politicians discuss the economic importance of the middle income class. Our article contributes to broaden the present state of research by not only examining the structure of the middle class whilst focusing on individual attributes, but by especially taking the role of gender-specific occupational characteristics and country-specific conditions into account. Based on the EU-SILC data 2020 for 17 countries, we analyze which factors affect the structure of the middle income class on the individual, on the occupational and country level. Our findings show that occupational attributes (e.g. part-time rate) prove to be highly relevant in this realm. Moreover, significant gender differences can be observed: women who work in an occupation which is mainly performed by women bear a higher risk of belonging to the lower income class as compared to men.
Taxed fairly?
(2023)
Empirically, the poor are more likely to support increases in the level of tax progressivity than the rich. Such income-stratified tax preferences can result from differences in preferences of what should be taxed as argued by previous literature. However, it may also result from income-stratified perceptions of what is taxed. This paper argues that the rich perceive higher levels of tax progressivity than the poor and that tax perceptions affect individuals’ support for progressive taxation. Using data from an Austrian survey experiment, we test this argument in three steps: First, in line with past research, we show that individuals’ income positions are connected to individuals’ tax preferences as a self-interest rationale would predict. However, second, we show that this variation is mainly driven by income-stratified tax perceptions. Third, randomly informing a subset of the sample about actual tax rates, we find that changing tax perceptions causally affects support for redistributive taxation among those who initially overestimated the level of tax progressivity. Our results indicate that tax perceptions are relevant for forming tax preferences and suggest that individuals are more polarized in their perceptions of who pays how much taxes than in their support for who should pay how much tax.
Political trust—in terms of trust in political institutions—is an important precondition for the functioning and stability of democracy. One widely studied determinant of political trust is income inequality. While the empirical finding that societies with lower levels of income inequality have higher levels of trust is well established, the exact ways in which income inequality affects political trust remain unclear. Past research has shown that individuals oftentimes have biased perceptions of inequality. Considering potentially biased inequality perceptions, I argue that individuals compare their perceptions of inequality to their preference for inequality. If they identify a gap between what they perceive and what they prefer (= fairness gap), they consider their attitudes towards inequality unrepresented. This, in turn, reduces trust in political institutions. Using three waves of the ESS and the ISSP in a cross-country perspective, I find that (1) perceiving a larger fairness gap is associated with lower levels of political trust; (2) the fairness gap mediates the link between actual inequality and political trust; and (3) disaggregating the fairness gap measure, political trust is more strongly linked to variation in inequality perceptions than to variation in inequality preferences. This indicates that inequality perceptions are an important factor shaping trust into political institutions.
Ausgehend von der Debatte um die Genderaspekte der Digitalisierung der Arbeit untersuchen wir den Zusammenhang zwischen der Nutzung digitaler Technologien und der Entwicklung von Geschlechterungleichheiten empirisch. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Frauen in Branchen mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad unterrepräsentiert sind und dass sich diese Dimension der Geschlechtersegregation in den letzten Jahren verstärkte. Die Unterrepräsentation von Frauen in Branchen mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad geht mit Nachteilen bei den Verdiensten einher. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zudem, dass der Gender Pay Gap in Branchen mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad tendenziell größer ist und über die Zeit weniger zurückging als in Branchen, in denen weniger digitale Technologien genutzt werden.
In the context of persistent images of self-perpetuated technologies, we discuss the interplay of digital technologies and organisational dynamics against the backdrop of systems theory. Building on the case of an international corporation that, during an agile reorganisation, introduced an AI-based personnel management platform, we show how technical systems produce a form of algorithmic contingency that subsequently leads to the emergence of formal and informal interaction systems. Using the concept of datafication, we explain how these interactions are barriers to the self-perpetuation of data-based decision-making, making it possible to take into consideration further decision factors and complementing the output of the platform. The research was carried out within the scope of the research project ‘Organisational Implications of Digitalisation: The Development of (Post-)Bureaucratic Organisational Structures in the Context of Digital Transformation’ funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG).
Organization not found
(2023)
Der Beitrag in der Zeitschrift GIO beschäftigt sich mit der Frage nach den Schwierigkeiten von Digitalisierungsreformen in öffentlichen Verwaltungen. Der Blick wird dafür auf Verwaltungen als Organisationen gerichtet, deren formale Strukturen die Digitalisierungsreform erschweren, da steile Hierarchien und Dienstwegeregelungen mit netzwerkartigen Projektstrukturen konfligieren, agile Arbeitsweisen der Orientierung an rechtlich legitimierten Verfahren zuwiderlaufen und das Personal nicht mit den nötigen Kompetenzen ausgestattet wird. Der organisationssensible Fokus erlaubt es, nicht nur die Probleme der Strukturen zu betrachten, sondern auch deren Funktionen für den Systembestand von Verwaltungen zu berücksichtigen. So wird gezeigt, dass etwa Dienstwegeregelungen demokratische Prozesse gewährleisten und Verantwortungsdiffusion verhindern, ihre Rechtsorientierung den Verwaltungen Legitimation und Autonomie verschafft und das Personal durch seine Regeleinhaltung funktionierende Verfahren und Objektivität gewährleistet. Diese Spannungsfelder berücksichtigend, wird daher der Vorschlag gemacht, in Reformen nicht nur ihre Optimierungsfunktion zu sehen, sondern sie als Werkzeug für ein besseres Verständnis der vorherrschenden Strukturen zu nutzen. Der Beitrag gibt abschließend Fragen an die Hand, wie man sich diesem Verständnis nähern kann.
Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys.
Objective: We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.
Methods: Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 178 migration experts, we compare variation and subjective confidence in expert predictions and assess whether additional context information (type of migration flow, sociopolitical context) promotes convergence among experts (i.e., less variation) and confidence in their own estimates.
Results: We find that additional context information does not reduce variation and does not increase confidence in expert predictions on migration.
Conclusions: The results reaffirm recent concerns regarding the limited scope for reducing uncertainty by manipulating the survey setup. Persistent uncertainty may be a result of the complexity of migration processes and limited agreement among migration experts regarding key drivers.
Contribution: We caution policymakers and academics on the use of Delphi surveys for eliciting expert predictions on immigration, even when conducted based on a large pool of experts and using specific scenarios. The potential of alternative approaches such as prediction markets should be further explored.
New work – old problem?
(2023)
Die Nutzung digitaler Kollaborationstools wird als Vorausset-
zung für eine postbürokratische New Work-Welt erachtet. Organisationale Digita-
lisierungsprojekte zur Einführung solcher Kollaborationssoftware sind selbst post-
bürokratisch strukturiert, d. h. sie arbeiten in crossfunktionalen und selbstorgani-
sierten Teams. Während der Kooperation mit anderen Organisationseinheiten treten
Konflikte auf, die sich dadurch verschärfen, dass sie nicht von der Hierarchie ge-
löst werden können, sondern im Sinne von New Work demokratisch ausgehandelt
werden müssen. In der Folge bedarf es alternativer formaler Strukturen, die diese
Herausforderung bewältigen.
A circulatory loop
(2023)
In the digitalization debate, gender biases in digital technologies play a significant role because of their potential for social exclusion and inequality. It is therefore remarkable that organizations as drivers of digitalization and as places for social integration have been widely overlooked so far. Simultaneously, gender biases and digitalization have structurally immanent connections to organizations. Therefore, a look at the reciprocal relationship between organizations, digitalization, and gender is needed. The article provides answers to the question of whether and how organizations (re)produce, reinforce, or diminish gender‐specific inequalities during their digital transformations. On the one hand, gender inequalities emerge when organizations use post‐bureaucratic concepts through digitalization. On the other hand, gender inequalities are reproduced when organizations either program or implement digital technologies and fail to establish control structures that prevent gender biases. This article shows that digitalization can act as a catalyst for inequality‐producing mechanisms, but also has the potential to mitigate inequalities. We argue that organizations must be considered when discussing the potential of exclusion through digitalization.
We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how locus of control operates through people’s preferences and beliefs to influence their decisions. Using the principal–agent setting of the delegation game, we test four key channels that conceptually link locus of control to decision-making: (i) preference for agency, (ii) optimism and (iii) confidence regarding the return to effort, and (iv) illusion of control. Knowing the return and cost of stated effort, principals either retain or delegate the right to make an investment decision that generates payoffs for themselves and their agents. Extending the game to the context in which the return to stated effort is unknown allows us to explicitly study the relationship between locus of control and beliefs about the return to effort. We find that internal locus of control is linked to the preference for agency, an effect that is driven by women. We find no evidence that locus of control influences optimism and confidence about the return to stated effort, or that it operates through an illusion of control.
Immense uncertainty and the need for drastic interventions cause politicians to rely heavily on scientific advice for underpinning or legitimating their COVID-19 decision-making. This paper explores the role of scientific advice in this policy field in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK. It shows that scientific advice is based on the disciplinary, mainly medical, backgrounds of advisors but is also influenced by social and economic values, which are core to what politicians find important. During the pandemic a growing gap between scientific advice and political decisions is observed.
The growing use of digital tools in policy implementation has altered the work of street-level bureaucrats who are granted substantial discretionary power in decision-making. Digital tools can constrain discretionary power, like the curtailment thesis proposed, or serve as action resources, like the enablement thesis suggested. This article assesses empirical evidence of the impact of digital tools on street-level work and decision-making in service-oriented and regulation-oriented organisations based on a systematic literature review and thematic qualitative content analysis of 36 empirical studies published until 2021. The findings demonstrate different effects with regard to the role of digital tools and the core tasks of the public administration, depending on political and managerial goals and consequent system design. Leading or decisive digital tools mostly curtail discretion, especially in service-oriented organisations. In contrast, an enhanced information base or recommendations for actions enable decision-making, in particular in regulation-oriented organisations. By showing how street-level bureaucrats actively try to resist the curtailing effects caused by rigid design to address individual circumstances, for instance by establishing ways of coping like rule bending or rule breaking, using personal resources or prioritising among clients, this study demonstrates the importance of the continuation thesis and the persistently crucial role of human judgement in policy implementation.
Schools are key contexts for the development of adolescents' critical consciousness. We explored how three dimensions of the classroom cultural diversity climate (critical consciousness, color-evasion, and multiculturalism) related to adolescents' critical reflection (i.e., perceived societal Islamophobia) and intended critical action (i.e., political activism). Our sample included adolescents experiencing high (second generation, Muslim, N = 237) versus low (non-immigrant descent, non-Muslim, N = 478) stigmatization in Germany. Multilevel analyses revealed that for both groups a critical consciousness climate, but not a color-evasive or a multicultural climate, was positively associated with perceived societal Islamophobia and intended critical action. Thus, to promote adolescents' critical consciousness, schools should go beyond emphasizing a common humanity and celebrating cultural diversity and include explicit discussions of social inequity.
Analyzing social wrongs
(2023)
Potentially disabled?
(2022)
Ten years ago, I was diagnosed with a rare illness called Myasthenia Gravis. Myasthenia Gravis is a long-term neuromuscular autoimmune disease where antibodies block or destroy specific receptors at the junction between nerve and muscle; hence, nerve impulses fail to trigger muscle contractions. The disease leads to varying degrees of muscle weakness. Currently, I have only minor symptoms, I am not seriously impaired, and I do not suffer from any social disadvantage because of my illness. Yet, my life and my body since my diagnosis feel different than before. In this paper I aim to make this feeling intelligible and propose that it is a state of what I call ‘latent impairment’. Latent impairment is a state of being ‘in between’, different from being actually impaired and also different from being abled-bodied. The theory takes its cues both from social constructionist theories of disability as well as theories of (chronic) illness and their focus on the importance of subjectivity. Furthermore, I suggest that a phenomenological understanding of latent impairment can show possible ways of becoming an ally to the DRM.
Eskalation in Tweets
(2023)
Sanctions are critical to the Security Council's efforts to fight terrorism. What is striking is that the Council's sanctions regimes are subject to detailed sets of rules and decision criteria. The scholarship on human rights in counterterrorism assumes that rights advocacy and court litigation have prompted this development. The article complements this literature by highlighting an unexplored internal driver of legal-regulatory decision-making and explores how mixed-motive interest constellations among Security Council members have affected the extent of committee regulations and the content of decisions taken by sanctions committees. Based on internal documents and diplomatic cables, a comparative analysis of the Iraq sanctions regime and the counterterrorism sanctions regime demonstrates that mixed-motive interest constellations among Security Council members provide incentives to elaborate rules to guide decision-making resulting in legal-regulatory sanctions governance, even if the human rights of targeted individuals are not at stake. For comparative leverage and to assess the limits of the proposed mechanism, the analysis is briefly extended to other sanctions regimes targeting individuals (Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan). The findings have implications for this essential tool of the Security Council to react to threats to peace as diverse as counterterrorism, nonproliferation, and internal armed conflict.
Do all roads lead to Rome?
(2020)
Content website providers have two main goals: They seek to attract consumers and to keep them on their websites as long as possible. To reach potential consumers, they can utilize several online channels, such as paid search results or advertisements on social media, all of which usually require a substantial marketing budget. However, with rising user numbers of online communication tools, website providers increasingly integrate social sharing buttons on their websites to encourage existing consumers to facilitate referrals to their social networks. While little is known about this social form of guiding consumers to a content website, the study proposes that the way in which consumers reach a website is related to their stickiness to the website and their propensity to refer content to others. By using a unique clickstream data set of a video-on-demand website, the study compares consumers referred by their social network to those consumers arriving at the website via organic search or social media advertisements in terms of stickiness to the website (e.g., visit length, number of page views, video starts) and referral likelihood. The results show that consumers referred through social referrals spend more time on the website, view more pages, and start more videos than consumers who respond to social media advertisements, but less than those coming through organic search. Concerning referral propensity, the results indicate that consumers attracted to a website through social referrals are more likely to refer content to others than those who came through organic search or social media advertisements. The study offers direct insights to managers and recommends an increase in their efforts to promote social referrals on their websites.
Objective:
Following a life course perspective, this study examines the link between partnership trajectories and three dimensions of psychological well-being: psychological health, overall sense of self-worth and quality of life.
Background:
Assuming that life outcomes are the result of prior decisions, experiences and events, partnership histories can be seen as a resource for psychological well-being. Furthermore, advantages or disadvantages from living with or without a partner should accumulate over time. While previous cross-sectional research has mainly focused on the influence of partnership status or a status change on well-being, prior longitudinal studies could not control for reverse causality of well-being and partnership trajectories. This research addresses the question of how different patterns of partnership biographies are related to a person's well-being in middle adulthood. Selection effects of pre-trajectory well-being as well as current life conditions are also taken into account.
Method:
Using data from the German LifE Study, the partnership trajectories between ages of 16 and 45 are classified by sequence and cluster analysis. OLS regression is then used to examine the link between types of partnership trajectories and depression, self-esteem and overall life satisfaction at age 45.
Results:
For women, well-being declined when experiencing unstable non-cohabitational union trajectories or divorce followed by unpartnered post-marital trajectories. Men suffered most from being long-term single. The results could not be explained by selection effects of pre-trajectory well-being.
Conclusion:
While women seem to 'recover' from most of the negative effects of unstable partnership trajectories through a new partnership, for men it was shown that being mainly unpartnered has long-lasting effects on their psychological well-being.
Across continental Europe, educational research samples are often divided by 'migrant background', a binary variable criticized for masking participant heterogeneity and reinforcing exclusionary norms of belonging.
This study endorses more meaningful, representative, and precise research by offering four guiding questions for selecting relevant, social justice oriented, and feasible social categories for collecting and analysing data in psychological and educational research. Using a preregistered empirical example, we first compare selected social categories ('migrant background', family heritage, religion, citizenship, cultural identification, and generation status) in their potential to reveal participant heterogeneity.
Second, we investigate differences in means and relations between variables (discrimination experiences, perceived societal Islamophobia, and national identity) and academic motivation among 1335 adolescents in Germany (48% female, M-age = 14.69). Regression analyses and multigroup SEM revealed differential experiences with and implications of discrimination for academic motivation.
Results highlight the need for a deliberate, transparent use of social categories to make discrimination visible and centre participants' subjective experiences.
This paper sheds new light on the role of communication for cartel formation. Using machine learning to evaluate free-form chat communication among firms in a laboratory experiment, we identify typical communication patterns for both explicit cartel formation and indirect attempts to collude tacitly. We document that firms are less likely to communicate explicitly about price fixing and more likely to use indirect messages when sanctioning institutions are present. This effect of sanctions on communication reinforces the direct cartel-deterring effect of sanctions as collusion is more difficult to reach and sustain without an explicit agreement. Indirect messages have no, or even a negative, effect on prices.
COVID-19
(2021)
We investigate how the economic consequences of the pandemic and the government-mandated measures to contain its spread affect the self-employed — particularly women — in Germany. For our analysis, we use representative, real-time survey data in which respondents were asked about their situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are about one-third more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. We do not find a comparable gender gap among employees. Our results further suggest that the gender gap among the self-employed is largely explained by the fact that women disproportionately work in industries that are more severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that women are significantly more likely to be impacted by government-imposed restrictions, e.g., the regulation of opening hours. We conclude that future policy measures intending to mitigate the consequences of such shocks should account for this considerable variation in economic hardship.
Previous literature has shown that task-based goal-setting and distributed learning is beneficial to university-level course performance. We investigate the effects of making these insights salient to students by sending out goal-setting prompts in a blended learning environment with bi-weekly quizzes. The randomized field experiment in a large mandatory economics course shows promising results: the treated students outperform the control group. They are 18.8% (0.20 SD) more likely to pass the exam and earn 6.7% (0.19 SD) more points on the exam. While we cannot causally disentangle the effects of goal-setting from the prompt sent, we observe that treated students use the online learning platform earlier in the semester and attempt more online exercises compared to the control group. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that higher treatment effects are associated with low performance at the beginning of the course.
One for all, all for one
(2022)
We propose a conceptual model of acceptance of contact tracing apps based on the privacy calculus perspective. Moving beyond the duality of personal benefits and privacy risks, we theorize that users hold social considerations (i.e., social benefits and risks) that underlie their acceptance decisions. To test our propositions, we chose the context of COVID-19 contact tracing apps and conducted a qualitative pre-study and longitudinal quantitative main study with 589 participants from Germany and Switzerland. Our findings confirm the prominence of individual privacy calculus in explaining intention to use and actual behavior. While privacy risks are a significant determinant of intention to use, social risks (operationalized as fear of mass surveillance) have a notably stronger impact. Our mediation analysis suggests that social risks represent the underlying mechanism behind the observed negative link between individual privacy risks and contact tracing apps' acceptance. Furthermore, we find a substantial intention–behavior gap.
In the past years, work-time in many industries has become more flexible, opening up a new channel for intertemporal substitution: workers might, instead of saving, adjust their work-time to smooth consumption. To study this channel, we set up a two-period consumption/saving model with wage uncertainty. This extends the standard saving model by also allowing a worker to allocate a fixed time budget between two work-shifts. To test the comparative statics implied by these two different channels, we conduct a laboratory experiment. A novel feature of our experiments is that we tie income to a real-effort style task. In four treatments, we turn on and off the two channels for consumption smoothing: saving and time allocation. Our main finding is that savings are strictly positive for at least 85 percent of subjects. We find that a majority of subjects also uses time allocation to smooth consumption and use saving and time shifting as substitutes, though not perfect substitutes. Part of the observed heterogeneity of precautionary behavior can be explained by risk preferences and motivations different from expected utility maximization. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and exploiting the staggered implementation of a compulsory schooling reform in West Germany, this article finds that an additional year of schooling lowers the probability of being very concerned about immigration to Germany by around six percentage points (20 percent). Furthermore, our findings imply significant spillovers from maternal education to immigration attitudes of her offspring. While we find no evidence for returns to education within a range of labor market outcomes, higher social trust appears to be an important mechanism behind our findings.
House price expectations
(2023)
This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.