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Institute
Im Vergleich zu Umfragen an Wahrscheinlichkeitsstichproben bieten Umfragen an Access-Panels, die auf Nicht-Wahrscheinlichkeitsstichproben basieren, unbestreitbare wirtschaftliche Vorteile. Diese Vorteile gehen jedoch mit unvermeidbaren Qualitätseinbußen einher, die auch dann bestehen bleiben, wenn Erstere sehr niedrige Responseraten haben. Daher müssen die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile und die methodischen Einschränkungen gegeneinander abgewogen werden. Es wird argumentiert, dass diese Abwägung anhand normativer Festlegungen erfolgen muss. Unter Anwendung der hier vorgeschlagenen Maßstäbe kommt der Beitrag zu dem Schluss, dass die Qualitätsansprüche an über Massenmedien verbreitete Meinungsumfragen höher sein sollten als für rein (sozial)wissenschaftliche Zwecke.
Variance Inflation Factor
(2015)
Since COVID-19 became a pandemic, many studies are being conducted to get a better understanding of the disease itself and its spread. One crucial indicator is the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Since this measure is an important foundation for political decisions, its estimate must be reliable and unbiased. This paper presents reasons for biases in prevalence estimates due to unit nonresponse in typical studies. Since it is difficult to avoid bias in situations with mostly unknown nonresponse mechanisms, we propose the maximum amount of bias as one measure to assess the uncertainty due to nonresponse. An interactive web application is presented that calculates the limits of such a conservative unit nonresponse confidence interval (CUNCI).
Toleranz
(2015)
The newly collected “Potsdam Grievance Statistics File” (PGSF) holds data on the number and topics of grievances (“Eingaben”) that were addressed to local authorities of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) in the years 1970 to 1989. The PGSF allows quantitative analyses on topics such as participation, quality of life, and value change in the German Democratic Republic. This paper introduces the concepts of the data set and discusses the validity of its contents.
Pioneering scholarship links retrospective childhood conditions to mature adult health. We distinctively provide critical evidence with prospective state-of-the-art measures of parent income observed multiple times during childhood in the 1970s to 1990s. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we analyze six health outcomes (self-rated health, heart attack, stroke, life-threatening chronic conditions, non-life-threatening chronic conditions, and psychological distress) among 40- to 65-year-olds. Parent relative income rank has statistically and substantively significant relationships with five of six outcomes. The relationships with heart attack, stroke, and life-threatening chronic conditions are particularly strong. Parent income rank performs slightly better than alternative prospective and retrospective measures. At the same time, we provide novel validation on which retrospective measures (i.e., father’s education) perform almost as well as prospective measures. Furthermore, we inform several perennial debates about how relative versus absolute income and other measures of socioeconomic status and social class influence health.
Vast racial inequalities continue to prevail across the United States and are closely linked to economic resources. One particularly prominent argument contends that childhood wealth accounts for black–white (BW) disadvantages in life chances. This article analyzes how much childhood wealth and childhood income mediate BW disadvantages in adult life chances with Panel Study of Income Dynamics and Cross-National Equivalent File data on children from the 1980s and 1990s who were 30+ years old in 2015. Compared with previous research, we exploit longer panel data, more comprehensively assess adult life chances with 18 outcomes, and measure income and wealth more rigorously. We find large BW disadvantages in most outcomes. Childhood wealth and income mediate a substantial share of most BW disadvantages, although there are several significant BW disadvantages even after adjusting for childhood wealth and income. The evidence mostly contradicts the prominent claim that childhood wealth is more important than childhood income. Indeed, the analyses mostly show that childhood income explains more of BW disadvantages and has larger standardized coefficients than childhood wealth. We also show how limitations in prior wealth research explain why our conclusions differ. Replication with the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and a variety of robustness checks support these conclusions.
Sunflower plot
(2015)
Sequenzanalyse [1]
(2015)