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Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere is becoming an important option to achieve net zero climate targets. This paper develops a welfare and public economics perspective on optimal policies for carbon removal and storage in non-permanent sinks like forests, soil, oceans, wood products or chemical products. We derive a new metric for the valuation of non-permanent carbon storage, the social cost of carbon removal (SCC-R), which embeds also the conventional social cost of carbon emissions. We show that the contribution of CDR is to create new carbon sinks that should be used to reduce transition costs, even if the stored carbon is released to the atmosphere eventually. Importantly, CDR does not raise the ambition of optimal temperature levels unless initial atmospheric carbon stocks are excessively high. For high initial atmospheric carbon stocks, CDR allows to reduce the optimal temperature below initial levels. Finally, we characterize three different policy regimes that ensure an optimal deployment of carbon removal: downstream carbon pricing, upstream carbon pricing, and carbon storage pricing. The policy regimes differ in their informational and institutional requirements regarding monitoring, liability and financing.
Mammalian arachidonic acid lipoxygenases (ALOXs) have been implicated in cell differentiation and in the pathogenesis of inflammation. The mouse genome involves seven functional Alox genes and the encoded enzymes share a high degree of amino acid conservation with their human orthologs. There are, however, functional differences between mouse and human ALOX orthologs. Human ALOX15B oxygenates arachidonic acid exclusively to its 15-hydroperoxy derivative (15S-HpETE), whereas 8S-HpETE is dominantly formed by mouse Alox15b. The structural basis for this functional difference has been explored and in vitro mutagenesis humanized the reaction specificity of the mouse enzyme. To explore whether this mutagenesis strategy may also humanize the reaction specificity of mouse Alox15b in vivo, we created Alox15b knock-in mice expressing the arachidonic acid 15-lipoxygenating Tyr603Asp+His604Val double mutant instead of the 8-lipoxygenating wildtype enzyme. These mice are fertile, display slightly modified plasma oxylipidomes and develop normally up to an age of 24 weeks. At later developmental stages, male Alox15b-KI mice gain significantly less body weight than outbred wildtype controls, but this effect was not observed for female individuals. To explore the possible reasons for the observed gender-specific growth arrest, we determined the basic hematological parameters and found that aged male Alox15b-KI mice exhibited significantly attenuated red blood cell parameters (erythrocyte counts, hematocrit, hemoglobin). Here again, these differences were not observed in female individuals. These data suggest that humanization of the reaction specificity of mouse Alox15b impairs the functionality of the hematopoietic system in males, which is paralleled by a premature growth arrest.
Complex emulsions are dispersions of kinetically stabilized multiphasic emulsion droplets comprised of two or more immiscible liquids that provide a novel material platform for the generation of active and dynamic soft materials. In recent years, the intrinsic reconfigurable morphological behavior of complex emulsions, which can be attributed to the unique force equilibrium between the interfacial tensions acting at the various interfaces, has become of fundamental and applied interest. As such, particularly biphasic Janus droplets have been investigated as structural templates for the generation of anisotropic precision objects, dynamic optical elements or as transducers and signal amplifiers in chemo- and bio-sensing applications. In the present thesis, switchable internal morphological responses of complex droplets triggered by stimuli-induced alterations of the balance of interfacial tensions have been explored as a universal building block for the design of multiresponsive, active, and adaptive liquid colloidal systems. A series of underlying principles and mechanisms that influence the equilibrium of interfacial tensions have been uncovered, which allowed the targeted design of emulsion bodies that can alter their shape, bind and roll on surfaces, or change their geometrical shape in response to chemical stimuli. Consequently, combinations of the unique triggerable behavior of Janus droplets with designer surfactants, such as a stimuli-responsive photosurfactant (AzoTAB) resulted for instance in shape-changing soft colloids that exhibited a jellyfish inspired buoyant motion behavior, holding great promise for the design of biological inspired active material architectures and transformable soft robotics.
In situ observations of spherical Janus emulsion droplets using a customized side-view microscopic imaging setup with accompanying pendant dropt measurements disclosed the sensitivity regime of the unique chemical-morphological coupling inside complex emulsions and enabled the recording of calibration curves for the extraction of critical parameters of surfactant effectiveness. The deduced new "responsive drop" method permitted a convenient and cost-efficient quantification and comparison of the critical micelle concentrations (CMCs) and effectiveness of various cationic, anionic, and nonionic surfactants. Moreover, the method allowed insightful characterization of stimuli-responsive surfactants and monitoring of the impact of inorganic salts on the CMC and surfactant effectiveness of ionic and nonionic surfactants. Droplet functionalization with synthetic crown ether surfactants yielded a synthetically minimal material platform capable of autonomous and reversible adaptation to its chemical environment through different supramolecular host-guest recognition events. Addition of metal or ammonium salts resulted in the uptake of the resulting hydrophobic complexes to the hydrocarbon hemisphere, whereas addition of hydrophilic ammonium compounds such as amino acids or polypeptides resulted in supramolecular assemblies at the hydrocarbon-water interface of the droplets. The multiresponsive material platform enabled interfacial complexation and
thus triggered responses of the droplets to a variety of chemical triggers including metal ions, ammonium compounds, amino acids, antibodies, carbohydrates as well as amino-functionalized solid surfaces.
In the final chapter, the first documented optical logic gates and combinatorial logic circuits based on complex emulsions are presented. More specifically, the unique reconfigurable and multiresponsive properties of complex emulsions were exploited to realize droplet-based logic gates of varying complexity using different stimuli-responsive surfactants in combination with diverse readout methods. In summary, different designs for multiresponsive, active, and adaptive liquid colloidal systems were presented and investigated, enabling the design of novel transformative chemo-intelligent soft material platforms.
The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere.
Simultaneous Barcode Sequencing of Diverse Museum Collection Specimens Using a Mixed RNA Bait Set
(2022)
A growing number of publications presenting results from sequencing natural history collection specimens reflect the importance of DNA sequence information from such samples. Ancient DNA extraction and library preparation methods in combination with target gene capture are a way of unlocking archival DNA, including from formalin-fixed wet-collection material. Here we report on an experiment, in which we used an RNA bait set containing baits from a wide taxonomic range of species for DNA hybridisation capture of nuclear and mitochondrial targets for analysing natural history collection specimens. The bait set used consists of 2,492 mitochondrial and 530 nuclear RNA baits and comprises specific barcode loci of diverse animal groups including both invertebrates and vertebrates. The baits allowed to capture DNA sequence information of target barcode loci from 84% of the 37 samples tested, with nuclear markers being captured more frequently and consensus sequences of these being more complete compared to mitochondrial markers. Samples from dry material had a higher rate of success than wet-collection specimens, although target sequence information could be captured from 50% of formalin-fixed samples. Our study illustrates how efforts to obtain barcode sequence information from natural history collection specimens may be combined and are a way of implementing barcoding inventories of scientific collection material.
Isoflux tension propagation (IFTP) theory and Langevin dynamics (LD) simulations are employed to study the dynamics of channel-driven polymer translocation in which a polymer translocates into a narrow channel and the monomers in the channel experience a driving force fc. In the high driving force limit, regardless of the channel width, IFTP theory predicts τ ∝ f βc for the translocation time, where β = −1 is the force scaling exponent. Moreover, LD data show that for a very narrow channel fitting only a single file of monomers, the entropic force due to the subchain inside the channel does not play a significant role in the translocation dynamics and the force exponent β = −1 regardless of the force magnitude. As the channel width increases the number of possible spatial configurations of the subchain inside the channel becomes significant and the resulting entropic force causes the force exponent to drop below unity.
We consider a one-dimensional oscillatory medium with a coupling through a diffusive linear field. In the limit of fast diffusion this setup reduces to the classical Kuramoto–Battogtokh model. We demonstrate that for a finite diffusion stable chimera solitons, namely localized synchronous domain in an infinite asynchronous environment, are possible. The solitons are stable also for finite density of oscillators, but in this case they sway with a nearly constant speed. This finite-density-induced motility disappears in the continuum limit, as the velocity of the solitons is inverse proportional to the density. A long-wave instability of the homogeneous asynchronous state causes soliton turbulence, which appears as a sequence of soliton mergings and creations. As the instability of the asynchronous state becomes stronger, this turbulence develops into a spatio-temporal intermittency.
Cosmic rays (CRs) constitute an important component of the interstellar medium (ISM) of galaxies and are thought to play an essential role in governing their evolution. In particular, they are able to impact the dynamics of a galaxy by driving galactic outflows or heating the ISM and thereby affecting the efficiency of star-formation. Hence, in order to understand galaxy formation and evolution, we need to accurately model this non-thermal constituent of the ISM. But except in our local environment within the Milky Way, we do not have the ability to measure CRs directly in other galaxies. However, there are many ways to indirectly observe CRs via the radiation they emit due to their interaction with magnetic and interstellar radiation fields as well as with the ISM.
In this work, I develop a numerical framework to calculate the spectral distribution of CRs in simulations of isolated galaxies where a steady-state between injection and cooling is assumed. Furthermore, I calculate the non-thermal emission processes arising from the modelled CR proton and electron spectra ranging from radio wavelengths up to the very high-energy gamma-ray regime.
I apply this code to a number of high-resolution magneto-hydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of isolated galaxies, where CRs are included. This allows me to study their CR spectra and compare them to observations of the CR proton and electron spectra by the Voyager-1 satellite and the AMS-02 instrument in order to reveal the origin of the measured spectral features.
Furthermore, I provide detailed emission maps, luminosities and spectra of the non-thermal emission from our simulated galaxies that range from dwarfs to Milk-Way analogues to starburst galaxies at different evolutionary stages. I successfully reproduce the observed relations between the radio and gamma-ray luminosities with the far-infrared (FIR) emission of star-forming (SF) galaxies, respectively, where the latter is a good tracer of the star-formation rate. I find that highly SF galaxies are close to the limit where their CR population would lose all of their energy due to the emission of radiation, whereas CRs tend to escape low SF galaxies more quickly. On top of that, I investigate the properties of CR transport that are needed in order to match the observed gamma-ray spectra.
Furthermore, I uncover the underlying processes that enable the FIR-radio correlation (FRC) to be maintained even in starburst galaxies and find that thermal free-free-emission naturally explains the observed radio spectra in SF galaxies like M82 and NGC 253 thus solving the riddle of flat radio spectra that have been proposed to contradict the observed tight FRC.
Lastly, I scrutinise the steady-state modelling of the CR proton component by investigating for the first time the influence of spectrally resolved CR transport in MHD simulations on the hadronic gamma-ray emission of SF galaxies revealing new insights into the observational signatures of CR transport both spectrally and spatially.
River-valley morphology preserves information on tectonic and climatic conditions that shape landscapes. Observations suggest that river discharge and valley-wall lithology are the main controls on valley width. Yet, current models based on these observations fail to explain the full range of cross-sectional valley shapes in nature, suggesting hitherto unquantified controls on valley width. In particular, current models cannot explain the existence of paired terrace sequences that form under cyclic climate forcing. Paired river terraces are staircases of abandoned floodplains on both valley sides, and hence preserve past valley widths. Their formation requires alternating phases of predominantly river incision and predominantly lateral planation, plus progressive valley narrowing. While cyclic Quaternary climate changes can explain shifts between incision and lateral erosion, the driving mechanism of valley narrowing is unknown. Here, we extract valley geometries from climatically formed, alluvial river-terrace sequences and show that across our dataset, the total cumulative terrace height (here: total valley height) explains 90%–99% of the variance in valley width at the terrace sites. This finding suggests that valley height, or a parameter that scales linearly with valley height, controls valley width in addition to river discharge and lithology. To explain this valley-width-height relationship, we reformulate existing valley-width models and suggest that, when adjusting to new boundary conditions, alluvial valleys evolve to a width at which sediment removal from valley walls matches lateral sediment supply from hillslope erosion. Such a hillslope-channel coupling is not captured in current valley-evolution models. Our model can explain the existence of paired terrace sequences under cyclic climate forcing and relates valley width to measurable field parameters. Therefore, it facilitates the reconstruction of past climatic and tectonic conditions from valley topography.
Background: Network models are useful tools for researchers to simplify and understand investigated systems. Yet, the assessment of methods for network construction is often uncertain. Random resampling simulations can aid to assess methods, provided synthetic data exists for reliable network construction.
Objectives: We implemented a new Monte Carlo algorithm to create simulated data for network reconstruction, tested the influence of adjusted parameters and used simulations to select a method for network model estimation based on real-world data. We hypothesized, that reconstructs based on Monte Carlo data are scored at least as good compared to a benchmark.
Methods: Simulated data was generated in R using the Monte Carlo algorithm of the mcgraph package. Benchmark data was created by the huge package. Networks were reconstructed using six estimator functions and scored by four classification metrics. For compatibility tests of mean score differences, Welch’s t-test was used. Network model estimation based on real-world data was done by stepwise selection.
Samples: Simulated data was generated based on 640 input graphs of various types and sizes. The real-world dataset consisted of 67 medieval skeletons of females and males from the region of Refshale (Lolland) and Nordby (Jutland) in Denmark.
Results: Results after t-tests and determining confidence intervals (CI95%) show, that evaluation scores for network reconstructs based on the mcgraph package were at least as good compared to the benchmark huge. The results even indicate slightly better scores on average for the mcgraph package.
Conclusion: The results confirmed our objective and suggested that Monte Carlo data can keep up with the benchmark in the applied test framework. The algorithm offers the feature to use (weighted) un- and directed graphs and might be useful for assessing methods for network construction.
Background: Clinicians often refer anthropometric measures of a child to so-called “growth standards” and “growth references. Over 140 countries have meanwhile adopted WHO growth standards.
Objectives: The present study was conducted to thoroughly examine the idea of growth standards as a common yardstick for all populations. Weight depends on height. We became interested in whether also weight-for-height depends on height. First, we studied the age-group effect on weight-for-height. Thereafter, we tested the applicability of weight-for-height references in short and in historic populations.
Sample and Methods: We analyzed body height and body weight and weight-for-height of 3795 healthy boys and 3726 healthy girls aged 2 to 5 years measured in East-Germany between 1986 and 1990.
We chose contemporary height and weight charts from Germany, the UK, and the WHO growth chart and compared these with three geographically commensurable growth charts from the end of the 19th century.
Results: We analyzed body height and body weight and weight-for-height of 3795 healthy boys and 3726 healthy girls aged 2 to 5 years measured in East-Germany between 1986 and 1990.
We chose contemporary height and weight charts from Germany, the UK, and the WHO growth chart and compared these with three geographically commensurable growth charts of the end of the 19th century.
Conclusion: Weight-for-height depends on age and sex and apart from the nutritional state, reflects body proportion and body built particularly during infancy and early childhood. Populations with a relatively short average height are prone to high values of weight-for-height for arithmetic reasons independent of the nutritional state.
Background: Biological age markers are a crucial indicator whether children are decelerated in growth tempo. Skeletal maturation is the standard measure. Yet, it relies on exposing children to x-radiation. Dental eruption is a potential, but highly debated, radiation free alternative.
Objectives: We assess the interrelationship between dental eruption and other maturational markers. We hypothesize that dental age correlates with body height and skeletal age. We further evaluate how the three different variables behave in cohorts from differing social backgrounds.
Sample and Method: Dental, skeletal and height data from the 1970s to 1990s from Guatemalan boys were converted into standard deviation scores, using external references for each measurement. The boys, aged between 7 and 12, derived from different social backgrounds (middle SES (N = 6529), low-middle SES (N = 736), low SES Ladino (N = 3653) and low SES Maya (N = 4587).
Results: Dental age shows only a weak correlation with skeletal age (0.18) and height (0.2). The distinction between cohorts differs according to each of the three measurements. All cohorts differ significantly in height. In skeletal maturation, the middle SES cohort is significantly advanced compared to all other cohorts. The periodically malnourished cohorts of low SES Mayas and Ladinos are significantly delayed in dental maturation compared to the well-nourished low-middle and middle class Ladino children.
Conclusion: Dental development is an independent system, that is regulated by different mechanisms than skeletal development and growth. Tooth eruption is sensitive to nutritional status, whereas skeletal age is more sensitive to socioeconomic background.
Students learn by repetition. Repetition is essential, but repetition needs questioning, and questioning the repertoire belongs to the essential tasks of student education. Guiding students to questioning was and is our prime motive to offer our International Student Summer Schools. The data were critically discussed among the students, in the twilight of Just So Stories, common knowledge, and prompted questioning of contemporary solutions. For these schools, the students bring their own data, carry their preliminary concepts, and in group discussions, they may have to challenge these concepts. Catch-up growth is known to affect long bone growth, but different opinions exist to what extent it also affects body proportions. Skeletal age and dental development are considered appropriate measures of maturation, but it appears that both system develop independently and are regulated by different mechanisms. Body weight distributions are assumed to be skewed, yet, historic data disproved this assumption. Many discussions focused on current ideas of global growth standards as a common yardstick for all populations world-wide, with new statistical tools being developed including network reconstruction and evaluation of the reconstructs to determine the confidence of graph prediction methods.
125 years ago, European infants grew differently from modern infants. We show weight gains of 20 healthy children weighed longitudinally from birth to age 1 year, published by Camerer in 1882. The data illustrate the historically prevalent concepts of infant nutrition practiced by German civil servants, lawyers, merchants, university professors, physicians, foresters and farmers. Breastfeeding by the mother was not truly appreciated in those days; children were often breastfed by wet nurses or received bottled milk. Bottle feeding mainly used diluted cow’s milk with some added carbohydrates, without evidence that appropriate amounts of oil, butter or other fatty components were added. French children from 1914 showed similar weight gain patterns suggesting similar feeding practices. The historical data suggest that energy deficient infant formula was fed regularly in the late 19th and early 20th century Europe, regardless of wealth and social class. The data question current concerns that temporarily feeding energy deficient infant formula may warrant serious anxieties regarding long-term cognitive, social and emotional behavioral development.
Background: Child growth is a dynamic process. When measured at short intervals, children’s growth shows characteristic patterns that can be of great importance for clinical purposes.
Objective: To study whether measuring height on a daily basis using an APP is practicable and user-friendly.
Methods: Recruitment took place via Snowball Sampling. Thirteen out of 14 contacted families signed up for a study period of 12 weeks with altogether 22 healthy children aged 3 to 13 years (response rate 93%). The study started with a visit to the family home for the setup of the measurement site, conventional height measuring and initial training of the new measurement process. Follow-up appointments were made at four, eight and 12 weeks. The children’s height was measured at daily intervals at their family homes over a period of three months.
Results: The parents altogether recorded 1704 height measurements and meticulously documented practicability and problems when using the device.
A 93% response rate in recruitment was achieved by maintaining a high motivation within the families. Contact with the principal investigator was permanently available, including open communication, personal training and attendance during the appointments at the family homes.
Conclusion: Measuring height by photographic display is interesting for children and parents and can be used for height measurements at home. A positive response rate of 13 out of 14 families with altogether 22 children highlights feasible recruitment and the high convenience and user-friendliness of daily APP-supported height measurements. Daily APP measurements appear to be a promising new tool for longitudinal growth studies.
Urban pollution
(2022)
We use worldwide satellite data to analyse how population size and density affect urban pollution. We find that density significantly increases pollution exposure. Looking only at urban areas, we find that population size affects exposure more than density. Moreover, the effect is driven mostly by population commuting to core cities rather than the core city population itself. We analyse heterogeneity by geography and income levels. By and large, the influence of population on pollution is greatest in Asia and middle-income countries. A counterfactual simulation shows that PM2.5 exposure would fall by up to 36% and NO2 exposure up to 53% if within countries population size were equalized across all cities.
Background: There is evidence that fully recovered COVID-19 patients usually resume physical exercise, but do not perform at the same intensity level performed prior to infection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 infection and recovery as well as muscle fatigue on cardiorespiratory fitness and running biomechanics in female recreational runners.
Methods: Twenty-eight females were divided into a group of hospitalized and recovered COVID-19 patients (COV, n = 14, at least 14 days following recovery) and a group of healthy age-matched controls (CTR, n = 14). Ground reaction forces from stepping on a force plate while barefoot overground running at 3.3 m/s was measured before and after a fatiguing protocol. The fatigue protocol consisted of incrementally increasing running speed until reaching a score of 13 on the 6–20 Borg scale, followed by steady-state running until exhaustion. The effects of group and fatigue were assessed for steady-state running duration, steady-state running speed, ground contact time, vertical instantaneous loading rate and peak propulsion force.
Results: COV runners completed only 56% of the running time achieved by the CTR (p < 0.0001), and at a 26% slower steady-state running speed (p < 0.0001). There were fatigue-related reductions in loading rate (p = 0.004) without group differences. Increased ground contact time (p = 0.002) and reduced peak propulsion force (p = 0.005) were found for COV when compared to CTR.
Conclusion: Our results suggest that female runners who recovered from COVID-19 showed compromised running endurance and altered running kinetics in the form of longer stance periods and weaker propulsion forces. More research is needed in this area using larger sample sizes to confirm our study findings.
Importance Alcohol consumption (AC) leads to death and disability worldwide. Ongoing discussions on potential negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on AC need to be informed by real-world evidence.
Objective To examine whether lockdown measures are associated with AC and consumption-related temporal and psychological within-person mechanisms.
Design, Setting, and Participants This quantitative, intensive, longitudinal cohort study recruited 1743 participants from 3 sites from February 20, 2020, to February 28, 2021. Data were provided before and within the second lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: before lockdown (October 2 to November 1, 2020); light lockdown (November 2 to December 15, 2020); and hard lockdown (December 16, 2020, to February 28, 2021).
Main Outcomes and Measures Daily ratings of AC (main outcome) captured during 3 lockdown phases (main variable) and temporal (weekends and holidays) and psychological (social isolation and drinking intention) correlates.
Results Of the 1743 screened participants, 189 (119 [63.0%] male; median [IQR] age, 37 [27.5-52.0] years) with at least 2 alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) yet without the need for medically supervised alcohol withdrawal were included. These individuals provided 14 694 smartphone ratings from October 2020 through February 2021. Multilevel modeling revealed significantly higher AC (grams of alcohol per day) on weekend days vs weekdays (β = 11.39; 95% CI, 10.00-12.77; P < .001). Alcohol consumption was above the overall average on Christmas (β = 26.82; 95% CI, 21.87-31.77; P < .001) and New Year’s Eve (β = 66.88; 95% CI, 59.22-74.54; P < .001). During the hard lockdown, perceived social isolation was significantly higher (β = 0.12; 95% CI, 0.06-0.15; P < .001), but AC was significantly lower (β = −5.45; 95% CI, −8.00 to −2.90; P = .001). Independent of lockdown, intention to drink less alcohol was associated with lower AC (β = −11.10; 95% CI, −13.63 to −8.58; P < .001). Notably, differences in AC between weekend and weekdays decreased both during the hard lockdown (β = −6.14; 95% CI, −9.96 to −2.31; P = .002) and in participants with severe AUD (β = −6.26; 95% CI, −10.18 to −2.34; P = .002).
Conclusions and Relevance This 5-month cohort study found no immediate negative associations of lockdown measures with overall AC. Rather, weekend-weekday and holiday AC patterns exceeded lockdown effects. Differences in AC between weekend days and weekdays evinced that weekend drinking cycles decreased as a function of AUD severity and lockdown measures, indicating a potential mechanism of losing and regaining control. This finding suggests that temporal patterns and drinking intention constitute promising targets for prevention and intervention, even in high-risk individuals.
Background
A growing body of literature is available regarding the effects of plyometric jump training (PJT) on measures of physical fitness (PF) and sport-specific performance (SSP) in-water sports athletes (WSA, i.e. those competing in sports that are practiced on [e.g. rowing] or in [e.g. swimming; water polo] water). Indeed, incoherent findings have been observed across individual studies making it difficult to provide the scientific community and coaches with consistent evidence. As such, a comprehensive systematic literature search should be conducted to clarify the existent evidence, identify the major gaps in the literature, and offer recommendations for future studies.
Aim
To examine the effects of PJT compared with active/specific-active controls on the PF (one-repetition maximum back squat strength, squat jump height, countermovement jump height, horizontal jump distance, body mass, fat mass, thigh girth) and SSP (in-water vertical jump, in-water agility, time trial) outcomes in WSA, through a systematic review with meta-analysis of randomized and non-randomized controlled studies.
Methods
The electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched up to January 2022. According to the PICOS approach, the eligibility criteria were: (population) healthy WSA; (intervention) PJT interventions involving unilateral and/or bilateral jumps, and a minimal duration of ≥ 3 weeks; (comparator) active (i.e. standard sports training) or specific-active (i.e. alternative training intervention) control group(s); (outcome) at least one measure of PF (e.g. jump height) and/or SSP (e.g. time trial) before and after training; and (study design) multi-groups randomized and non-randomized controlled trials. The Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale was used to assess the methodological quality of the included studies. The DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model was used to compute the meta-analyses, reporting effect sizes (ES, i.e. Hedges’ g) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Statistical significance was set at p ≤ 0.05. Certainty or confidence in the body of evidence for each outcome was assessed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE), considering its five dimensions: risk of bias in studies, indirectness, inconsistency, imprecision, and risk of publication bias.
Results
A total of 11,028 studies were identified with 26 considered eligible for inclusion. The median PEDro score across the included studies was 5.5 (moderate-to-high methodological quality). The included studies involved a total of 618 WSA of both sexes (330 participants in the intervention groups [31 groups] and 288 participants in the control groups [26 groups]), aged between 10 and 26 years, and from different sports disciplines such as swimming, triathlon, rowing, artistic swimming, and water polo. The duration of the training programmes in the intervention and control groups ranged from 4 to 36 weeks. The results of the meta-analysis indicated no effects of PJT compared to control conditions (including specific-active controls) for in-water vertical jump or agility (ES = − 0.15 to 0.03; p = 0.477 to 0.899), or for body mass, fat mass, and thigh girth (ES = 0.06 to 0.15; p = 0.452 to 0.841). In terms of measures of PF, moderate-to-large effects were noted in favour of the PJT groups compared to the control groups (including specific-active control groups) for one-repetition maximum back squat strength, horizontal jump distance, squat jump height, and countermovement jump height (ES = 0.67 to 1.47; p = 0.041 to < 0.001), in addition to a small effect noted in favour of the PJT for SSP time-trial speed (ES = 0.42; p = 0.005). Certainty of evidence across the included studies varied from very low-to-moderate.
Conclusions
PJT is more effective to improve measures of PF and SSP in WSA compared to control conditions involving traditional sport-specific training as well as alternative training interventions (e.g. resistance training). It is worth noting that the present findings are derived from 26 studies of moderate-to-high methodological quality, low-to-moderate impact of heterogeneity, and very low-to-moderate certainty of evidence based on GRADE.
Trial registration The protocol for this systematic review with meta-analysis was published in the Open Science platform (OSF) on January 23, 2022, under the registration doi https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/NWHS3 (internet archive link: https://archive.org/details/osf-registrations-nwhs3-v1).
The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021–2050) and far-term period (2071–2100) with reference to 1976–2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50% during 2021–2050 and between +131 and +388% during 2071–2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.