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Kein anderer Akteur prägte die ersten Dezennien der Preußischen Seehandlung so sehr wie Carl August von Struensee. Als deren Direktor und dann als preußischer Finanzminister initiierte er zwischen 1782 und seinem Tod im Jahr 1804 bereits maßgeblich den langen Transformationsprozess der Seehandlung vom königlichen Wachs- und Salzmonopol hin zu einer Staatsbank, der erst im 20. Jahrhundert zum Abschluss kommen sollte. In dem Beitrag wird Struensee sowohl als Wirtschaftstheoretiker in den ökonomischen Diskursen der Aufklärung zwischen Physiokratie und Frühliberalismus situiert als auch als ein Finanzpolitiker mit konsequent europäischem Handlungshorizont vor dem Hintergrund einer beschleunigten globalen und kolonialen Mächtekonkurrenz porträtiert.
Das Jahr 1772
(2023)
Im Jahr 1772 beschäftigten drei Dinge, die lange Zeit ihre Bedeutung behalten sollten, den preußischen König Friedrich den Großen. Zunächst war dies die Adelsrepublik Polen. Polen beabsichtigte er zusammen mit der Zarin Katharina II. von Russland und Kaiserin Maria Theresia zu zerteilen. Dies geschah am 5. August des Jahres. Der geraubte Landgewinn führte bei Friedrich II. zu wirtschaftlichen Überlegungen. Mit und in den annektierten Gebieten wollte er den preußischen Handel intensivieren, zuvörderst den Salzhandel, und zwar am liebsten mit Spanien, einem Land, mit dem er schon seit geraumer Zeit versuchte, einen Handelsvertrag abzuschließen. Dazu gründete er u. a. die Preußische Seehandlungs-Gesellschaft, die, um sich zu behaupten, verschiedene weitreichende Privilegien erhielt. Ein schneller Erfolg der Bemühungen blieb jedoch aus. Trotz aller gewährten Privilegien florierten die Geschäfte der Seehandlungs-Gesellschaft in den ersten Jahren nach ihrer Gründung nicht in dem erhofften Maß. Zu Lebzeiten des Königs kam auch kein Handelsvertrag mit Spanien zustande. Bis die Seehandlung durch die Vorteile, die sie aus dem annektierten Polen ziehen konnte, profitierte, dauerte es noch einige Jahre.
No evidence of growth impairment after forced migration in Polish school children after World War II
(2023)
Background: Migration is omnipresent. It can come hand in hand with emotional stress which is known to influence the growth of children.
Objective: The aim of this study was to analyse whether type of migration (forced or voluntary) and the geographic direction had influenced the growth of Polish children after World War II.
Sample and Methods: A sub dataset of 2,208 individuals between the ages of 2-20, created from data of the 2nd Polish Anthropological Survey carried out in 1966–1969, including anthropometrical data and social and demographic information based on questionnaire, was used to analyse migration effects.
Results: No association could be found between the direction of migration and the height of the children. The confidence intervals of the means of all classified migration categories overlap significantly and the effect size of the influence of migration category on height is ds=.140, which is too low to see any effects, even if there were one.
Conclusion: Neither forced nor voluntary migration in Poland after World War II led to a change in height in children of migrating families.
Background: Assessing short-term growth in humans is still fraught with difficulties. Especially when looking for small variations and increments, such as mini growth spurts, high precision instruments or frequent measurements are necessary. Daily measurements however require a lot of effort, both for anthropologists and for the subjects. Therefore, new sophisticated approaches are needed that reduce fluctuations and reveal underlying patterns.
Objectives: Changepoints are abrupt variations in the properties of time series data. In the context of growth, such variations could be variation in mean height. By adjusting the variance and using different growth models, we assessed the ability of changepoint analysis to analyse short-term growth and detect mini growth spurts.
Sample and Methods: We performed Bayesian changepoint analysis on simulated growth data using the bcp package in R. Simulated growth patterns included stasis, linear growth, catch-up growth, and mini growth spurts. Specificity and a normalised variant of the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) were used to assess the algorithm’s performance. Welch’s t-test was used to compare differences of the mean.
Results: First results show that changepoint analysis can detect mini growth spurts. However, the ability to detect mini growth spurts is highly dependent on measurement error. Data preparation, such as ranking and rotating time series data, showed negligible improvements. Missing data was an issue and may affect the prediction quality of the classification metrics.
Conclusion: Changepoint analysis is a promising tool to analyse short-term growth. However, further optimisation and analysis of real growth data is needed to make broader generalisations.
Human growth data analysis and statistics – the 5th Gülpe International Student Summer School
(2023)
The Summer School in Gülpe (Ecological Station of the University of Potsdam) offers an exceptional learning opportunity for students to apply their knowledge and skills to real-world problems. With the guidance of experienced human biologists, statisticians, and programmers, students have the unique chance to analyze their own data and gain valuable insights. This interdisciplinary setting not only bridges different research areas but also leads to highly valuable outputs. The progress of students within just a few days is truly remarkable, especially when they are motivated and receive immediate feedback on their questions, problems, and results. The Summer School covers a wide range of topics, with this year’s focus mainly on two areas: understanding the impact of socioeconomic and physiological factors on human development and mastering statistical techniques for analyzing data such as changepoint analysis and the St. Nicolas House Analysis (SNHA) to visualize interacting variables. The latter technique, born out of the Summer School’s emphasis on gaining comprehensive data insights and understanding major relationships, has proven to be a valuable tool for researchers in the field. The articles in this special issue demonstrate that the Summer School in Gülpe stands as a testament to the power of practical learning and collaboration. Students who attend not only gain hands-on experience but also benefit from the expertise of professionals and the opportunity to engage with peers from diverse disciplines.
Twenty-four scientists met for the annual Auxological conference held at Krobielowice castle, Poland, to discuss the diverse influences of the environment and of social behavior on growth following last year’s focus on growth and public health concerns (Hermanussen et al., 2022b). Growth and final body size exhibit marked plastic responses to ecological conditions. Among the shortest are the pygmoid people of Rampasasa, Flores, Indonesia, who still live under most secluded insular conditions. Genetics and nutrition are usually considered responsible for the poor growth in many parts of this world, but evidence is accumulating on the prominent impact of social embedding on child growth. Secular trends not only in the growth of height, but also in body proportions, accompany the secular changes in the social, economic and political conditions, with major influences on the emotional and educational circumstances under which the children grow up (Bogin, 2021). Aspects of developmental tempo and aspects of sports were discussed, and the impact of migration by the example of women from Bangladesh who grew up in the UK. Child growth was considered in particular from the point of view of strategic adjustments of individual size within the network of its social group. Theoretical considerations on network characteristics were presented and related to the evolutionary conservation of growth regulating hypothalamic neuropeptides that have been shown to link behavior and physical growth in the vertebrate species. New statistical approaches were presented for the evaluation of short term growth measurements that permit monitoring child growth at intervals of a few days and weeks.
In this paper, we investigate the continuous version of modified iterative Runge–Kutta-type methods for nonlinear inverse ill-posed problems proposed in a previous work. The convergence analysis is proved under the tangential cone condition, a modified discrepancy principle, i.e., the stopping time T is a solution of ∥𝐹(𝑥𝛿(𝑇))−𝑦𝛿∥=𝜏𝛿+ for some 𝛿+>𝛿, and an appropriate source condition. We yield the optimal rate of convergence.
In this study, we analyze interactions in lake and lake catchment systems of a continuous permafrost area. We assessed colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption at 440 nm (a(440)(CDOM)) and absorption slope (S300-500) in lakes using field sampling and optical remote sensing data for an area of 350 km(2) in Central Yamal, Siberia. Applying a CDOM algorithm (ratio of green and red band reflectance) for two high spatial resolution multispectral GeoEye-1 and Worldview-2 satellite images, we were able to extrapolate the a()(CDOM) data from 18 lakes sampled in the field to 356 lakes in the study area (model R-2 = 0.79). Values of a(440)(CDOM) in 356 lakes varied from 0.48 to 8.35 m(-1) with a median of 1.43 m(-1). This a()(CDOM) dataset was used to relate lake CDOM to 17 lake and lake catchment parameters derived from optical and radar remote sensing data and from digital elevation model analysis in order to establish the parameters controlling CDOM in lakes on the Yamal Peninsula. Regression tree model and boosted regression tree analysis showed that the activity of cryogenic processes (thermocirques) in the lake shores and lake water level were the two most important controls, explaining 48.4% and 28.4% of lake CDOM, respectively (R-2 = 0.61). Activation of thermocirques led to a large input of terrestrial organic matter and sediments from catchments and thawed permafrost to lakes (n = 15, mean a(440)(CDOM) = 5.3 m(-1)). Large lakes on the floodplain with a connection to Mordy-Yakha River received more CDOM (n = 7, mean a(440)(CDOM) = 3.8 m(-1)) compared to lakes located on higher terraces.
Prediction of hybrid biomass in Arabidopsis thaliana by selected parental SNP and metabolic markers
(2009)
A recombinant inbred line (RIL) population, derived from two Arabidopsis thaliana accessions, and the corresponding testcrosses with these two original accessions were used for the development and validation of machine learning models to predict the biomass of hybrids. Genetic and metabolic information of the RILs served as predictors. Feature selection reduced the number of variables (genetic and metabolic markers) in the models by more than 80% without impairing the predictive power. Thus, potential biomarkers have been revealed. Metabolites were shown to bear information on inherited macroscopic phenotypes. This proof of concept could be interesting for breeders. The example population exhibits substantial mid-parent biomass heterosis. The results of feature selection could therefore be used to shed light on the origin of heterosis. In this respect, mainly dominance effects were detected.
Many widely used observational data sets are comprised of several overlapping instrument records. While data inter-calibration techniques often yield continuous and reliable data for trend analysis, less attention is generally paid to maintaining higher-order statistics such as variance and autocorrelation. A growing body of work uses these metrics to quantify the stability or resilience of a system under study and potentially to anticipate an approaching critical transition in the system. Exploring the degree to which changes in resilience indicators such as the variance or autocorrelation can be attributed to non-stationary characteristics of the measurement process – rather than actual changes in the dynamical properties of the system – is important in this context. In this work we use both synthetic and empirical data to explore how changes in the noise structure of a data set are propagated into the commonly used resilience metrics lag-one autocorrelation and variance. We focus on examples from remotely sensed vegetation indicators such as vegetation optical depth and the normalized difference vegetation index from different satellite sources. We find that time series resulting from mixing signals from sensors with varied uncertainties and covering overlapping time spans can lead to biases in inferred resilience changes. These biases are typically more pronounced when resilience metrics are aggregated (for example, by land-cover type or region), whereas estimates for individual time series remain reliable at reasonable sensor signal-to-noise ratios. Our work provides guidelines for the treatment and aggregation of multi-instrument data in studies of critical transitions and resilience.