Institut für Physik und Astronomie
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Accurately predicting total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms is still a challenging task for ionospheric models. In this work, a neural-network (NN)-based model is proposed which predicts relative TEC with respect to the preceding 27-day median TEC, during storm time for the European region (with longitudes 30 degrees W-50 degrees E and latitudes 32.5 degrees N-70 degrees N). The 27-day median TEC (referred to as median TEC), latitude, longitude, universal time, storm time, solar radio flux index F10.7, global storm index SYM-H and geomagnetic activity index Hp30 are used as inputs and the output of the network is the relative TEC. The relative TEC can be converted to the actual TEC knowing the median TEC. The median TEC is calculated at each grid point over the European region considering data from the last 27 days before the storm using global ionosphere maps (GIMs) from international GNSS service (IGS) sources. A storm event is defined when the storm time disturbance index Dst drops below 50 nanotesla. The model was trained with storm-time relative TEC data from the time period of 1998 until 2019 (2015 is excluded) and contains 365 storms. Unseen storm data from 33 storm events during 2015 and 2020 were used to test the model. The UQRG GIMs were used because of their high temporal resolution (15 min) compared to other products from different analysis centers. The NN-based model predictions show the seasonal behavior of the storms including positive and negative storm phases during winter and summer, respectively, and show a mixture of both phases during equinoxes. The model's performance was also compared with the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM) and the NN-based quiet-time TEC model, both developed at the German Aerospace Agency (DLR). The storm model has a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 3.38 TEC units (TECU), which is an improvement by 1.87 TECU compared to the NTCM, where an RMSE of 5.25 TECU was found. This improvement corresponds to a performance increase by 35.6%. The storm-time model outperforms the quiet-time model by 1.34 TECU, which corresponds to a performance increase by 28.4% from 4.72 to 3.38 TECU. The quiet-time model was trained with Carrington averaged TEC and, therefore, is ideal to be used as an input instead of the GIM derived 27-day median. We found an improvement by 0.8 TECU which corresponds to a performance increase by 17% from 4.72 to 3.92 TECU for the storm-time model using the quiet-time-model predicted TEC as an input compared to solely using the quiet-time model.
The quantification of spatial propagation of extreme precipitation events is vital in water resources planning and disaster mitigation. However, quantifying these extreme events has always been challenging as many traditional methods are insufficient to capture the nonlinear interrelationships between extreme event time series. Therefore, it is crucial to develop suitable methods for analyzing the dynamics of extreme events over a river basin with a diverse climate and complicated topography. Over the last decade, complex network analysis emerged as a powerful tool to study the intricate spatiotemporal relationship between many variables in a compact way. In this study, we employ two nonlinear concepts of event synchronization and edit distance to investigate the extreme precipitation pattern in the Ganga river basin. We use the network degree to understand the spatial synchronization pattern of extreme rainfall and identify essential sites in the river basin with respect to potential prediction skills. The study also attempts to quantify the influence of precipitation seasonality and topography on extreme events. The findings of the study reveal that (1) the network degree is decreased in the southwest to northwest direction, (2) the timing of 50th percentile precipitation within a year influences the spatial distribution of degree, (3) the timing is inversely related to elevation, and (4) the lower elevation greatly influences connectivity of the sites. The study highlights that edit distance could be a promising alternative to analyze event-like data by incorporating event time and amplitude and constructing complex networks of climate extremes.
Suppression of the TeV Pair-beam-Plasma Instability by a Tangled Weak Intergalactic Magnetic Field
(2022)
We study the effect of a tangled sub-fG level intergalactic magnetic field (IGMF) on the electrostatic instability of a blazar-induced pair beam. Sufficiently strong IGMF may significantly deflect the TeV pair beams, which would reduce the flux of secondary cascade emission below the observational limits. A similar flux reduction may result from the electrostatic beam-plasma instability, which operates the best in the absence of IGMF. Considering IGMF with correlation lengths smaller than a kiloparsec, we find that weak magnetic fields increase the transverse momentum of the pair-beam particles, which dramatically reduces the linear growth rate of the electrostatic instability and hence the energy-loss rate of the pair beam. We show that the beam-plasma instability is eliminated as an effective energy-loss agent at a field strength three orders of magnitude below that needed to suppress the secondary cascade emission by magnetic deflection. For intermediate-strength IGMF, we do not know a viable process to explain the observed absence of GeV-scale cascade emission.
We revisited 10 known exoplanetary systems using publicly available data provided by the transiting exoplanet survey satellite (TESS). The sample presented in this work consists of short period transiting exoplanets, with inflated radii and large reported uncertainty on their planetary radii. The precise determination of these values is crucial in order to develop accurate evolutionary models and understand the inflation mechanisms of these systems. Aiming to evaluate the planetary radius measurement, we made use of the planet-to-star radii ratio, a quantity that can be measured during a transit event. We fit the obtained transit light curves of each target with a detrending model and a transit model. Furthermore, we used emcee, which is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, to assess the best fit posterior distributions of each system parameter of interest. We refined the planetary radius of WASP-140 b by approximately 12%, and we derived a better precision on its reported asymmetric radius uncertainty by approximately 86 and 67%. We also refined the orbital parameters of WASP-120 b by 2 sigma. Moreover, using the high-cadence TESS datasets, we were able to solve a discrepancy in the literature, regarding the planetary radius of the exoplanet WASP-93 b. For all the other exoplanets in our sample, even though there is a tentative trend that planetary radii of (near-) grazing systems have been slightly overestimated in the literature, the planetary radius estimation and the orbital parameters were confirmed with independent observations from space, showing that TESS and ground-based observations are overall in good agreement.
Spin precession in magnetic materials is commonly modelled with the classical phenomenological Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) equation. Based on a quantized three-dimensional spin + environment Hamiltonian, we here derive a spin operator equation of motion that describes precession and includes a general form of damping that consistently accounts for memory, coloured noise and quantum statistics. The LLG equation is recovered as its classical, Ohmic approximation. We further introduce resonant Lorentzian system-reservoir couplings that allow a systematic comparison of dynamics between Ohmic and non-Ohmic regimes. Finally, we simulate the full non-Markovian dynamics of a spin in the semi-classical limit. At low temperatures, our numerical results demonstrate a characteristic reduction and flattening of the steady state spin alignment with an external field, caused by the quantum statistics of the environment. The results provide a powerful framework to explore general three-dimensional dissipation in quantum thermodynamics.
Active matter broadly covers the dynamics of self-propelled particles.
While the onset of collective behavior in homogenous active systems is relatively well understood, the effect of inhomogeneities such as obstacles and traps lacks overall clarity.
Here, we study how interacting, self-propelled particles become trapped and released from a trap.
We have found that captured particles aggregate into an orbiting condensate with a crystalline structure. As more particles are added, the trapped condensates escape as a whole.
Our results shed light on the effects of confinement and quenched disorder in active matter.
Gravitational waves from the collision of binary neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study the behaviour of supranuclear matter, the fundamental properties of gravity and the cosmic history of our Universe. However, given the complexity of Einstein's field equations, theoretical models that enable source-property inference suffer from systematic uncertainties due to simplifying assumptions. We develop a hypermodel approach to compare and measure the uncertainty of gravitational-wave approximants. Using state-of-the-art models, we apply this new technique to the binary neutron star observations GW170817 and GW190425 and to the sub-threshold candidate GW200311_103121. Our analysis reveals subtle systematic differences (with Bayesian odds of similar to 2) between waveform models. A frequency-dependence study suggests that this may be due to the treatment of the tidal sector. This new technique provides a proving ground for model development and a means to identify waveform systematics in future observing runs where detector improvements will increase the number and clarity of binary neutron star collisions we observe.
Anomalous diffusion with a power-law time dependence vertical bar R vertical bar(2)(t) similar or equal to t(alpha i) of the mean squared displacement occurs quite ubiquitously in numerous complex systems. Often, this anomalous diffusion is characterised by crossovers between regimes with different anomalous diffusion exponents alpha(i). Here we consider the case when such a crossover occurs from a first regime with alpha(1) to a second regime with alpha(2) such that alpha(2) > alpha(1), i.e., accelerating anomalous diffusion. A widely used framework to describe such crossovers in a one-dimensional setting is the bi-fractional diffusion equation of the so-called modified type, involving two time-fractional derivatives defined in the Riemann-Liouville sense. We here generalise this bi-fractional diffusion equation to higher dimensions and derive its multidimensional propagator (Green's function) for the general case when also a space fractional derivative is present, taking into consideration long-ranged jumps (Levy flights). We derive the asymptotic behaviours for this propagator in both the short- and long-time as well the short- and long-distance regimes. Finally, we also calculate the mean squared displacement, skewness and kurtosis in all dimensions, demonstrating that in the general case the non-Gaussian shape of the probability density function changes.
Over the past decades, there has been a growing interest in ‘extreme events’ owing to the increasing threats that climate-related extremes such as floods, heatwaves, droughts, etc., pose to society. While extreme events have diverse definitions across various disciplines, ranging from earth science to neuroscience, they are characterized mainly as dynamic occurrences within a limited time frame that impedes the normal functioning of a system. Although extreme events are rare in occurrence, it has been found in various hydro-meteorological and physiological time series (e.g., river flows, temperatures, heartbeat intervals) that they may exhibit recurrent behavior, i.e., do not end the lifetime of the system. The aim of this thesis to develop some
sophisticated methods to study various properties of extreme events.
One of the main challenges in analyzing such extreme event-like time series is that they have large temporal gaps due to the paucity of the number of observations of extreme events. As a result, existing time series analysis tools are usually not helpful to decode the underlying
information. I use the edit distance (ED) method to analyze extreme event-like time series in their unaltered form. ED is a specific distance metric, mainly designed to measure the similarity/dissimilarity between point process-like data. I combine ED with recurrence plot techniques to identify the recurrence property of flood events in the Mississippi River in the United States. I also use recurrence quantification analysis to show the deterministic properties
and serial dependency in flood events.
After that, I use this non-linear similarity measure (ED) to compute the pairwise dependency in extreme precipitation event series. I incorporate the similarity measure within the framework of complex network theory to study the collective behavior of climate extremes. Under this architecture, the nodes are defined by the spatial grid points of the given spatio-temporal climate dataset. Each node is associated with a time series corresponding to the temporal evolution
of the climate observation at that grid point. Finally, the network links are functions of the pairwise statistical interdependence between the nodes. Various network measures, such as degree, betweenness centrality, clustering coefficient, etc., can be used to quantify the network’s topology. We apply the methodology mentioned above to study the spatio-temporal coherence pattern of extreme rainfall events in the United States and the Ganga River basin, which reveals its relation to various climate processes and the orography of the region.
The identification of precursors associated with the occurrence of extreme events in the near future is extremely important to prepare the masses for an upcoming disaster and mitigate the potential risks associated with such events. Under this motivation, I propose an in-data prediction recipe for predicting the data structures that typically occur prior to extreme events using the Echo state network, a type of Recurrent Neural Network which is a part of the reservoir
computing framework. However, unlike previous works that identify precursory structures in the same variable in which extreme events are manifested (active variable), I try to predict these structures by using data from another dynamic variable (passive variable) which does not show large excursions from the nominal condition but carries imprints of these extreme events. Furthermore, my results demonstrate that the quality of prediction depends on the magnitude
of events, i.e., the higher the magnitude of the extreme, the better is its predictability skill. I show quantitatively that this is because the input signals collectively form a more coherent pattern for an extreme event of higher magnitude, which enhances the efficiency of the machine to predict the forthcoming extreme events.
Polymeric antimicrobial peptide mimics are a promising alternative for the future management of the daunting problems associated with antimicrobial resistance. However, the development of successful antimicrobial polymers (APs) requires careful control of factors such as amphiphilic balance, molecular weight, dispersity, sequence, and architecture. While most of the earlier developed APs focus on random linear copolymers, the development of APs with advanced architectures proves to be more potent. It is recently developed multivalent bottlebrush APs with improved antibacterial and hemocompatibility profiles, outperforming their linear counterparts. Understanding the rationale behind the outstanding biological activity of these newly developed antimicrobials is vital to further improving their performance. This work investigates the physicochemical properties governing the differences in activity between linear and bottlebrush architectures using various spectroscopic and microscopic techniques. Linear copolymers are more solvated, thermo-responsive, and possess facial amphiphilicity resulting in random aggregations when interacting with liposomes mimicking Escheria coli membranes. The bottlebrush copolymers adopt a more stable secondary conformation in aqueous solution in comparison to linear copolymers, conferring rapid and more specific binding mechanism to membranes. The advantageous physicochemical properties of the bottlebrush topology seem to be a determinant factor in the activity of these promising APs.