Institut für Physik und Astronomie
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This work deals with the connection between two basic phenomena in Nonlinear Dynamics: synchronization of chaotic systems and recurrences in phase space. Synchronization takes place when two or more systems adapt (synchronize) some characteristic of their respective motions, due to an interaction between the systems or to a common external forcing. The appearence of synchronized dynamics in chaotic systems is rather universal but not trivial. In some sense, the possibility that two chaotic systems synchronize is counterintuitive: chaotic systems are characterized by the sensitivity ti different initial conditions. Hence, two identical chaotic systems starting at two slightly different initial conditions evolve in a different manner, and after a certain time, they become uncorrelated. Therefore, at a first glance, it does not seem to be plausible that two chaotic systems are able to synchronize. But as we will see later, synchronization of chaotic systems has been demonstrated. On one hand it is important to investigate the conditions under which synchronization of chaotic systems occurs, and on the other hand, to develop tests for the detection of synchronization. In this work, I have concentrated on the second task for the cases of phase synchronization (PS) and generalized synchronization (GS). Several measures have been proposed so far for the detection of PS and GS. However, difficulties arise with the detection of synchronization in systems subjected to rather large amounts of noise and/or instationarities, which are common when analyzing experimental data. The new measures proposed in the course of this thesis are rather robust with respect to these effects. They hence allow to be applied to data, which have evaded synchronization analysis so far. The proposed tests for synchronization in this work are based on the fundamental property of recurrences in phase space.
Understanding stars, their magnetic activity phenomena and the underlying dynamo action is the foundation for understanding 'life, the universe and everything' - as stellar magnetic fields play a fundamental role for star and planet formation and for the terrestrial atmosphere and climate. Starspots are the fingerprints of magnetic field lines and thereby the most important sign of activity in a star's photosphere. However, they cannot be observed directly, as it is not (yet) possible to spacially resolve the surfaces of even the nearest neighbouring stars. Therefore, an indirect approach called 'Doppler imaging' is applied, which allows to reconstruct the surface spot distribution on rapidly rotating, active stars. In this work, data from 11 years of continuous spectroscopic observations of the active binary star EI Eridani are reduced and analysed. 34 Doppler maps are obtained and the problem of how to parameterise the information content of Doppler maps is discussed. Three approaches for parameter extraction are introduced and applied to all maps: average temperature, separated for several latitude bands; fractional spottedness; and, for the analysis of structural temperature distribution, longitudinal and latitudinal spot-occurrence functions. The resulting values do not show a distinct correlation with the proposed activity cycle as seen from photometric long-term observations, thereby suggesting that the photometric activity cycle is not accompanied by a spot cycle as seen on the Sun. The general morphology of the spot pattern on EI Eri remains persistent for the whole period of 11 years. In addition, a detailed parameter study is performed. Improved orbital parameters suggest that EI Eri might be complemented by a third star in a wide orbit of about 19 years. Preliminary differential rotation measurements are carried out, indicating an anti-solar orientation.
Die Frage nach der Herkunft und der dynamischen Entwicklung langlebiger kosmischer Magnetfelder ist in vielen Details noch unbeantwortet. Es besteht zwar kein Zweifel daran, dass das Magnetfeld der Erde und anderer kosmischer Objekte durch den sogenannten Dynamoeffekt verursacht werden, der genaue Mechanismus als auch die notwendigen Voraussetzungen und Randbedingungen der zugrundeliegenden Strömungen sind aber weitgehend unbekannt. Die für einen Dynamo interessanten Strömungsmuster, die im Inneren von Himmelskörpern durch Konvektion und differentielle Rotation entstehen, sind Konvektionsrollen parallel zur Rotationsachse. Auf einer Strömung mit eben solcher Geometrie, der sogenannten Roberts-Strömung, basieren die in der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchten Dynamomodelle. Mit Methoden der nichtlinearen Dynamik wird versucht, das Systemverhalten bei Änderung der Systemparamter genauer zu charakterisieren. Die numerischen Untersuchungen beginnen mit einer Analyse der Dynamoaktivität der Roberts-Strömung in Abhängigkeit von den zwei freien Parametern in den Modellgleichungen, der magnetischen Prandtl-Zahl und der Stärke des Energieinputs. Gefunden werden verschiedene Lösungstypen die von einem stationären Magnetfeld über periodische bis zu chaotischen Zuständen reichen. Die yugrundeliegenden Symmetrien werden beschrieben und die Bifurkationen, die zum Wechsel der Lösungstypen führen, charakterisiert. Zusätzlich gibt es Bereiche bei sehr kleinen Prandtl-Zahlen, in denen überhaupt kein Dynamo existiert. Dieses Verhalten wird in der Literatur auch für viele andere numerisch ausgewertete Modelle beschrieben. Im Übergangsbereich zwischen dynamoaktivem und dynamoinaktivem Bereich wird das Auftreten einer sogenannten Blowout-Bifurkation gefunden. Desweiteren beschäftigt sich die Arbeit mit der Frage, inwiefern Helizität, also eine schraubenförmige Bewegung, der Strömung den Dynamoeffekt beeinflusst. Dazu werden ähnliche Strömungstypen verglichen, die sich hauptsächlich in ihrem Helizitätswert unterscheiden. Es wird gefunden, dass ein bestimmter Wert der Helizität nicht unterschritten werden darf, um einen stabilen Roberts-Dynamo zu erhalten.
In this thesis, dynamical structures and manifolds in closed chaotic flows will be investigated. The knowledge about the dynamical structures (and manifolds) of a system is of importance, since they provide us first information about the dynamics of the system - means, with their help we are able to characterize the flow and maybe even to forecast it`s dynamics. The visualization of such structures in closed chaotic flows is a difficult and often long-lasting process. Here, the so-called 'Leaking-method' will be introduced, in examples of simple mathematical maps as the baker- or sine-map, with which we are able to visualize subsets of the manifolds of the system`s chaotic saddle. Comparisons between the visualized manifolds and structures traced out by chemical or biological reactions superimposed on the same flow will be done in the example of a kinematic model of the Gulf Stream. It will be shown that with the help of the leaking method dynamical structures can be also visualized in environmental systems. In the example of a realistic model of the Mediterranean Sea, the leaking method will be extended to the 'exchange-method'. The exchange method allows us to characterize transport between two regions, to visualize transport routes and their exchange sets and to calculate the exchange times. Exchange times and sets will be shown and calculated for a northern and southern region in the western basin of the Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore, mixing properties in the Earth mantle will be characterized and geometrical properties of manifolds in a 3dimensional mathematical model (ABC map) will be investigated.
Recurrence plots, a rather promising tool of data analysis, have been introduced by Eckman et al. in 1987. They visualise recurrences in phase space and give an overview about the system's dynamics. Two features have made the method rather popular. Firstly they are rather simple to compute and secondly they are putatively easy to interpret. However, the straightforward interpretation of recurrence plots for some systems yields rather surprising results. For example indications of low dimensional chaos have been reported for stock marked data, based on recurrence plots. In this work we exploit recurrences or ``naturally occurring analogues'' as they were termed by E. Lorenz, to obtain three key results. One of which is that the most striking structures which are found in recurrence plots are hinged to the correlation entropy and the correlation dimension of the underlying system. Even though an eventual embedding changes the structures in recurrence plots considerably these dynamical invariants can be estimated independently of the special parameters used for the computation. The second key result is that the attractor can be reconstructed from the recurrence plot. This means that it contains all topological information of the system under question in the limit of long time series. The graphical representation of the recurrences can also help to develop new algorithms and exploit specific structures. This feature has helped to obtain the third key result of this study. Based on recurrences to points which have the same ``recurrence structure'', it is possible to generate surrogates of the system which capture all relevant dynamical characteristics, such as entropies, dimensions and characteristic frequencies of the system. These so generated surrogates are shadowed by a trajectory of the system which starts at different initial conditions than the time series in question. They can be used then to test for complex synchronisation.
One of the most striking features of ecological systems is their ability to undergo sudden outbreaks in the population numbers of one or a small number of species. The similarity of outbreak characteristics, which is exhibited in totally different and unrelated (ecological) systems naturally leads to the question whether there are universal mechanisms underlying outbreak dynamics in Ecology. It will be shown into two case studies (dynamics of phytoplankton blooms under variable nutrients supply and spread of epidemics in networks of cities) that one explanation for the regular recurrence of outbreaks stems from the interaction of the natural systems with periodical variations of their environment. Natural aquatic systems like lakes offer very good examples for the annual recurrence of outbreaks in Ecology. The idea whether chaos is responsible for the irregular heights of outbreaks is central in the domain of ecological modeling. This question is investigated in the context of phytoplankton blooms. The dynamics of epidemics in networks of cities is a problem which offers many ecological and theoretical aspects. The coupling between the cities is introduced through their sizes and gives rise to a weighted network which topology is generated from the distribution of the city sizes. We examine the dynamics in this network and classified the different possible regimes. It could be shown that a single epidemiological model can be reduced to a one-dimensional map. We analyze in this context the dynamics in networks of weighted maps. The coupling is a saturation function which possess a parameter which can be interpreted as an effective temperature for the network. This parameter allows to vary continously the network topology from global coupling to hierarchical network. We perform bifurcation analysis of the global dynamics and succeed to construct an effective theory explaining very well the behavior of the system.
This thesis analyses synchronization phenomena occurring in large ensembles of interacting oscillatory units. In particular, the effects of nonisochronicity (frequency dependence on the oscillator's amplitude) on the macroscopic transition to synchronization are studied in detail. The new phenomena found (Anomalous Synchronization) are investigated in populations of oscillators as well as between oscillator's ensembles.
Eine Nutzung der optischen Anisotropie dünner Schichten ist vor allem für die Displaytechnologie, die optische Datenspeicherung und für optische Sicherheitselemente von hoher Bedeutung. Diese Doktorarbeit befasst sich mit theoretischen und experimentellen Untersuchung von dreidimensionaler Anisotropie und dabei insbesondere mit der Untersuchung von lichtinduzierter dreidimensionaler Anisotropie in organischen dünnen Polymer-Schichten. Die gewonnenen Erkentnisse und entwickelten Methoden können wertvolle Beiträge für Optimierungsprozesse, wie bei der Kompensation der Blickwinkelabhängigkeit von Flüssigkristall-Displays, liefern. Die neue Methode der Immersions-Transmissions-Ellipsometrie (ITE) zur Untersuchung von dünneren Schichten wurde im Rahmen dieser Dissertation entwickelt. Diese Methode gestattet es, in Kombination mit konventioneller Reflexions- und Transmissionsellipsometrie, die absoluten dreidimensionalen Brechungsindices einer biaxialen Schicht zu bestimmen. Erstmals gelang es damit, das dreidimensionale Brechungsindexellipsoid von transparenten, dünneren (150 nm) Filmen hochgenau (drei Stellen hinter dem Komma) zu bestimmen. Die ITE-Methode hat demzufolge das Potential, auch bei noch dünneren Schichten mit Gewinn eingesetzt werden zu können. Die lichtinduzierte Generierung von dreidimensionaler Anisotropie wurde in dünnen Schichten von azobenzenhaltigen und zimtsäurehaltigen, amorphen und flüssig-kristallinen Homo- und Copolymeren untersucht. Erstmals wurden quantitative Untersuchungen zur Änderung von lichtinduzierten, dreidimensionalen Anisotropien in dünnen Schichten von azobenzenhaltigen und zimtsäurehaltigen Polymeren bei Tempern oberhalb der Glastemperatur durchgeführt. Bei vielen der untersuchten Polymere war die dreidimensionale Ordnung nach dem Bestrahlen mit polarisiertem Licht und anschließendem Tempern oberhalb der Glastemperatur scheinbar von der Schichtdicke abhängig. Die Ursache liegt wohl in der, mit der neuentwickelten ITE-Methode detektierten, planaren Ausgangsorientierung der aufgeschleuderten dünneren Schichten. Um Verkippungs-Gradienten in dickeren Polymerschichten in ihrem Verlauf zu bestimmen, wurde eine spezielle Methode unter Benutzung der Wellenleitermoden-Spektroskopie entwickelt. Quantenchemisch bestimmte, maximal induzierbare Doppelbrechungen in flüssig-kristallinen Polymeren wurden mit den experimentell gefundenen Ordnungen verglichen.
We calculate the additional carbon emissions as a result of the conversion of natural land in a process of urbanisation; and the change of carbon flows by “urbanised” ecosystems, when the atmospheric carbon is exported to the neighboring territories, from 1980 till 2050 for the eight regions of the world. As a scenario we use combined UN and demographic model′s prognoses for regional total and urban population growth. The calculations of urban areas dynamics are based on two models: the regression model and the Gamma-model. The urbanised area is sub-divided on built-up, „green“ (parks, etc.) and informal settlements (favelas) areas. The next step is to calculate the regional and world dynamics of carbon emission and export, and the annual total carbon balance. Both models give similar results with some quantitative differences. In the first model, the world annual emissions attain a maximum of 205 MtC/year between 2020-2030. Emissions will then slowly decrease. The maximum contributions are given by China and the Asia and Pacific regions. In the second model, world annual emissions increase to 1.25 GtC in 2005, beginning to decrease afterwards. If we compare the emission maximum with the annual emission caused by deforestation, 1.36GtC per year, then we can say that the role of urbanised territories (UT) is of a comparable magnitude. Regarding the world annual export of carbon by UT, we observe its monotonous growth by three times, from 24 MtC to 66 MtC in the first model, and from 249 MtC to 505 MtC in the second one. The latter, is therefore comparable to the amount of carbon transported by rivers into the ocean (196-537 MtC). By estimating the total balance we find that urbanisation shifts the total balance towards a “sink” state. The urbanisation is inhibited in the interval 2020-2030, and by 2050 the growth of urbanised areas would almost stop. Hence, the total emission of natural carbon at that stage will stabilise at the level of the 1980s (80 MtC per year). As estimated by the second model, the total balance, being almost constant until 2000, then starts to decrease at an almost constant rate. We can say that by the end of the XXI century, the total carbon balance will be equal to zero, when the exchange flows are fully balanced, and may even be negative, when the system begins to take up carbon from the atmosphere, i.e., becomes a “sink”.
My thesis is concerned with several new noise-induced phenomena in excitable neural models, especially those with FitzHugh-Nagumo dynamics. In these effects the fluctuations intrinsically present in any complex neural network play a constructive role and improve functionality. I report the occurrence of Vibrational Resonance in excitable systems. Both in an excitable electronic circuit and in the FitzHugh-Nagumo model, I show that an optimal amplitude of high-frequency driving enhances the response of an excitable system to a low-frequency signal. Additionally, the influence of additive noise and the interplay between Stochastic and Vibrational Resonance is analyzed. Further, I study systems which combine both oscillatory and excitable properties, and hence intrinsically possess two internal frequencies. I show that in such a system the effect of Stochastic Resonance can be amplified by an additional high-frequency signal which is in resonance with the oscillatory frequency. This amplification needs much lower noise intensities than for conventional Stochastic Resonance in excitable systems. I study frequency selectivity in noise-induced subthreshold signal processing in a system with many noise-supported stochastic attractors. I show that the response of the coupled elements at different noise levels can be significantly enhanced or reduced by forcing some elements into resonance with these new frequencies which correspond to appropriate phase-relations. A noise-induced phase transition to excitability is reported in oscillatory media with FitzHugh-Nagumo dynamics. This transition takes place via noise-induced stabilization of a deterministically unstable fixed point of the local dynamics, while the overall phase-space structure of the system is maintained. The joint action of coupling and noise leads to a different type of phase transition and results in a stabilization of the system. The resulting noise-induced regime is shown to display properties characteristic of excitable media, such as Stochastic Resonance and wave propagation. This effect thus allows the transmission of signals through an otherwise globally oscillating medium. In particular, these theoretical findings suggest a possible mechanism for suppressing undesirable global oscillations in neural networks (which are usually characteristic of abnormal medical conditions such as Parkinson′s disease or epilepsy), using the action of noise to restore excitability, which is the normal state of neuronal ensembles.
Die Untersuchung mikrogelinster astronomischer Objekte ermöglicht es, Informationen über die Größe und Struktur dieser Objekte zu erhalten. Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit werden die Spektren von drei gelinsten Quasare, die mit dem Potsdamer Multi Aperture Spectrophotometer (PMAS) erhalten wurden, auf Anzeichen für Mikrolensing untersucht. In den Spektren des Vierfachquasares HE 0435-1223 und des Doppelquasares HE 0047-1756 konnten Hinweise für Mikrolensing gefunden werden, während der Doppelquasar UM 673 (Q 0142--100) keine Anzeichen für Mikrolensing zeigt. Die Invertierung der Lichtkurve eines Mikrolensing-Kausik-Crossing-Ereignisses ermöglicht es, das eindimensionale Helligkeitsprofil der gelinsten Quelle zu rekonstruieren. Dies wird im zweiten Teil dieser Arbeit untersucht. Die mathematische Beschreibung dieser Aufgabe führt zu einer Volterra'schen Integralgleichung der ersten Art, deren Lösung ein schlecht gestelltes Problem ist. Zu ihrer Lösung wird in dieser Arbeit ein lokales Regularisierungsverfahren angewendet, das an die kausale Strukture der Volterra'schen Gleichung besser angepasst ist als die bisher verwendete Tikhonov-Phillips-Regularisierung. Es zeigt sich, dass mit dieser Methode eine bessere Rekonstruktion kleinerer Strukturen in der Quelle möglich ist. Weiterhin wird die Anwendbarkeit der Regularisierungsmethode auf realistische Lichtkurven mit irregulärem Sampling bzw. größeren Lücken in den Datenpunkten untersucht.
Highly collimated, high velocity streams of hot plasma – the jets – are observed as a general phenomenon being found in a variety of astrophysical objects regarding their size and energy output. Known as jet sources are protostellar objects (T Tauri stars, embedded IR sources), galactic high energy sources ("microquasars"), and active galactic nuclei (extragalactic radio sources and quasars). Within the last two decades our knowledge regarding the processes involved in astro-physical jet formation has condensed in a kind of standard model. This is the scenario of a magnetohydrodynamically accelerated and collimated jet stream launched from the innermost part of an accretion disk close to the central object. Traditionally, the problem of jet formation is divided in two categories. One is the question how to collimate and accelerate an uncollimated low velocity disk wind into a jet. The second is the question how to initiate that outflow from a disk, i.e. how to turn accretion of matter into an ejection as a disk wind. My own work is mainly related to the first question, the collimation and acceleration process. Due to the complexity of both, the physical processes believed to be responsible for the jet launching and also the spatial configuration of the physical components of the jet source, the enigma of jet formation is not yet completely understood. On the theoretical side, there has been a substantial advancement during the last decade from purely station-ary models to time-dependent simulations lead by the vast increase of computer power. Observers, on the other hand, do not yet have the instruments at hand in order to spatially resolve observe the very jet origin. It can be expected that also the next years will yield a substantial improvement on both tracks of astrophysical research. Three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simu-lations will improve our understanding regarding the jet-disk interrelation and the time-dependent character of jet formation, the generation of the magnetic field in the jet source, and the interaction of the jet with the ambient medium. Another step will be the combina-tion of radiation transfer computations and magnetohydrodynamic simulations providing a direct link to the observations. At the same time, a new generation of telescopes (VLT, NGST) in combination with new instrumental techniques (IR-interferometry) will lead to a "quantum leap" in jet observation, as the resolution will then be sufficient in order to zoom into the innermost region of jet formation.
In a classical context, synchronization means adjustment of rhythms of self-sustained periodic oscillators due to their weak interaction. The history of synchronization goes back to the 17th century when the famous Dutch scientist Christiaan Huygens reported on his observation of synchronization of pendulum clocks: when two such clocks were put on a common support, their pendula moved in a perfect agreement. In rigorous terms, it means that due to coupling the clocks started to oscillate with identical frequencies and tightly related phases. Being, probably, the oldest scientifically studied nonlinear effect, synchronization was understood only in 1920-ies when E. V. Appleton and B. Van der Pol systematically - theoretically and experimentally - studied synchronization of triode generators. Since that the theory was well developed and found many applications. Nowadays it is well-known that certain systems, even rather simple ones, can exhibit chaotic behaviour. It means that their rhythms are irregular, and cannot be characterized only by one frequency. However, as is shown in the Habilitation work, one can extend the notion of phase for systems of this class as well and observe their synchronization, i.e., agreement of their (still irregular!) rhythms: due to very weak interaction there appear relations between the phases and average frequencies. This effect, called phase synchronization, was later confirmed in laboratory experiments of other scientific groups. Understanding of synchronization of irregular oscillators allowed us to address important problem of data analysis: how to reveal weak interaction between the systems if we cannot influence them, but can only passively observe, measuring some signals. This situation is very often encountered in biology, where synchronization phenomena appear on every level - from cells to macroscopic physiological systems; in normal states as well as in severe pathologies. With our methods we found that cardiovascular and respiratory systems in humans can adjust their rhythms; the strength of their interaction increases with maturation. Next, we used our algorithms to analyse brain activity of Parkinsonian patients. The results of this collaborative work with neuroscientists show that different brain areas synchronize just before the onset of pathological tremor. Morevoever, we succeeded in localization of brain areas responsible for tremor generation.
One of the classical ways to describe the dynamics of nonlinear systems is to analyze theur Fourier spectra. For periodic and quasiperiodic processes the Fourier spectrum consists purely of discrete delta-functions. On the contrary, the spectrum of a chaotic motion is marked by the presence of the continuous component. In this work, we describe the peculiar, neither regular nor completely chaotic state with so called singular-continuous power spectrum. Our investigations concern various cases from most different fields, where one meets the singular continuous (fractal) spectra. The examples include both the physical processes which can be reduced to iterated discrete mappings or even symbolic sequences, and the processes whose description is based on the ordinary or partial differential equations.
Line driven winds are accelerated by the momentum transfer from photons to a plasma, by absorption and scattering in numerous spectral lines. Line driving is most efficient for ultraviolet radiation, and at plasma temperatures from 10^4 K to 10^5 K. Astronomical objects which show line driven winds include stars of spectral type O, B, and A, Wolf-Rayet stars, and accretion disks over a wide range of scales, from disks in young stellar objects and cataclysmic variables to quasar disks. It is not yet possible to solve the full wind problem numerically, and treat the combined hydrodynamics, radiative transfer, and statistical equilibrium of these flows. The emphasis in the present writing is on wind hydrodynamics, with severe simplifications in the other two areas. I consider three topics in some detail, for reasons of personal involvement. 1. Wind instability, as caused by Doppler de-shadowing of gas parcels. The instability causes the wind gas to be compressed into dense shells enclosed by strong shocks. Fast clouds occur in the space between shells, and collide with the latter. This leads to X-ray flashes which may explain the observed X-ray emission from hot stars. 2. Wind runaway, as caused by a new type of radiative waves. The runaway may explain why observed line driven winds adopt fast, critical solutions instead of shallow (or breeze) solutions. Under certain conditions the wind settles on overloaded solutions, which show a broad deceleration region and kinks in their velocity law. 3. Magnetized winds, as launched from accretion disks around stars or in active galactic nuclei. Line driving is assisted by centrifugal forces along co-rotating poloidal magnetic field lines, and by Lorentz forces due to toroidal field gradients. A vortex sheet starting at the inner disk rim can lead to highly enhanced mass loss rates.
The behaviour of an adhering cell is strongly influenced by the chemical, topographical and mechanical properties of the surface it attaches to. During recent years, it has been found experimentally that adhering cells actively sense the elastic properties of their environment by pulling on it through numerous sites of adhesion. The resulting build-up of force at sites of adhesion depends on the elastic properties of the environment and is converted into corresponding biochemical signals, which can trigger cellular programmes like growth, differentiation, apoptosis, and migration. In general, force is an important regulator of biological systems, for example in hearing and touch, in wound healing, and in rolling adhesion of leukocytes on vessel walls. In the habilitation thesis by Ulrich Schwarz, several theoretical projects are presented which address the role of forces and elasticity in cell adhesion. (1) A new method has been developed for calculating cellular forces exerted at sites of focal adhesion on micro-patterned elastic substrates. The main result is that cell-matrix contacts function as mechanosensors, converting internal force into protein aggregation. (2) A one-step master equation for the stochastic dynamics of adhesion clusters as a function of cluster size, rebinding rate and force has been solved both analytically and numerically. Moreover this model has been applied to the regulation of cell-matrix contacts, to dynamic force spectroscopy, and to rolling adhesion. (3) Using linear elasticity theory and the concept of force dipoles, a model has been introduced and solved which predicts the positioning and orientation of mechanically active cells in soft material, in good agreement with experimental observations for fibroblasts on elastic substrates and in collagen gels.
Concerns have been raised that anthropogenic climate change could lead to large-scale singular climate events, i.e., abrupt nonlinear climate changes with repercussions on regional to global scales. One central goal of this thesis is the development of models of two representative components of the climate system that could exhibit singular behavior: the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and the Indian monsoon. These models are conceived so as to fulfill the main requirements of integrated assessment modeling, i.e., reliability, computational efficiency, transparency and flexibility. The model of the THC is an interhemispheric four-box model calibrated against data generated with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. It is designed to be driven by global mean temperature change which is translated into regional fluxes of heat and freshwater through a linear down-scaling procedure. Results of a large number of transient climate change simulations indicate that the reduced-form THC model is able to emulate key features of the behavior of comprehensive climate models such as the sensitivity of the THC to the amount, regional distribution and rate of change in the heat and freshwater fluxes. The Indian monsoon is described by a novel one-dimensional box model of the tropical atmosphere. It includes representations of the radiative and surface fluxes, the hydrological cycle and surface hydrology. Despite its high degree of idealization, the model satisfactorily captures relevant aspects of the observed monsoon dynamics, such as the annual course of precipitation and the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon. Also, the model exhibits the sensitivity to changes in greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol concentrations that are known from comprehensive models. A simplified version of the monsoon model is employed for the identification of changes in the qualitative system behavior against changes in boundary conditions. The most notable result is that under summer conditions a saddle-node bifurcation occurs at critical values of the planetary albedo or insolation. Furthermore, the system exhibits two stable equilibria: besides the wet summer monsoon, a stable state exists which is characterized by a weak hydrological cycle. These results are remarkable insofar, as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary albedo such as sulfur emissions and/or land-use changes could destabilize the Indian summer monsoon. The reduced-form THC model is employed in an exemplary integrated assessment application. Drawing on the conceptual and methodological framework of the tolerable windows approach, emissions corridors (i.e., admissible ranges of CO2- emissions) are derived that limit the risk of a THC collapse while considering expectations about the socio-economically acceptable pace of emissions reductions. Results indicate, for example, a large dependency of the width of the emissions corridor on climate and hydrological sensitivity: for low values of climate and/or hydrological sensitivity, the corridor boundaries are far from being transgressed by any plausible emissions scenario for the 21st century. In contrast, for high values of both quantities low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor already in the early decades of the 21st century. This implies that if the risk of a THC collapse is to be kept low, business-as-usual paths would need to be abandoned within the next two decades. All in all, this thesis highlights the value of reduced-form modeling by presenting a number of applications of this class of models, ranging from sensitivity and bifurcation analysis to integrated assessment. The results achieved and conclusions drawn provide a useful contribution to the scientific and policy debate about the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and the long-term goals of climate protection. --- Anmerkung: Die Autorin ist Trägerin des von der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Potsdam vergebenen Michelson-Preises für die beste Promotion des Jahres 2003/2004.
A polymer is a large molecule made up of many elementary chemical units, joined together by covalent bonds (for example, polyethylene). Polyelectrolytes (PELs) are polymer chains containing a certain amount of ionizable monomers. With their specific properties PELs acquire big importance in molecular and cell biology as well as in technology. Compared to neutral polymers the theory of PELs is less understood. In particular, this is valid for PELs in poor solvents. A poor solvent environment causes an effective attraction between monomers. Hence, for PELs in a poor solvent, there occurs a competition between attraction and repulsion. Strong or quenched PELs are completely dissociated at any accessible pH. The position of charges along the chain is fixed by chemical synthesis. On the other hand, in weak or annealed PELs dissociation of charges depends on solution pH. For the first time the simulation results have given direct evidence that at rather poor solvents an annealed PEL indeed undergoes a first-order phase transition when the chemical potential (solution pH) reaches at a certain value. The discontinuous transition occurs between a weakly charged compact globular structure and a strongly charged stretched configuration. At not too poor solvents theory predicts that globule would become unstable with respect to the formation of pearl-necklaces. The results show that pearl-necklaces exist in annealed PELs indeed. Furthermore, as predicted by theory, the simulation results have shown that annealed PELs display a sharp transition from a highly charged stretched state to a weakly charged globule at a critical salt concentration.
Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Charakterisierung von Seismizität anhand von Erdbebenkatalogen. Es werden neue Verfahren der Datenanalyse entwickelt, die Aufschluss darüber geben sollen, ob der seismischen Dynamik ein stochastischer oder ein deterministischer Prozess zugrunde liegt und was daraus für die Vorhersagbarkeit starker Erdbeben folgt. Es wird gezeigt, dass seismisch aktive Regionen häufig durch nichtlinearen Determinismus gekennzeichent sind. Dies schließt zumindest die Möglichkeit einer Kurzzeitvorhersage ein. Das Auftreten seismischer Ruhe wird häufig als Vorläuferphaenomen für starke Erdbeben gedeutet. Es wird eine neue Methode präsentiert, die eine systematische raumzeitliche Kartierung seismischer Ruhephasen ermöglicht. Die statistische Signifikanz wird mit Hilfe des Konzeptes der Ersatzdaten bestimmt. Als Resultat erhält man deutliche Korrelationen zwischen seismischen Ruheperioden und starken Erdbeben. Gleichwohl ist die Signifikanz dafür nicht hoch genug, um eine Vorhersage im Sinne einer Aussage über den Ort, die Zeit und die Stärke eines zu erwartenden Hauptbebens zu ermöglichen.
Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Annahme, dass den Erdbeben ein selbstorganisiert kritischer Zustand der Erdkruste zugrunde liegt. Mit Hilfe einer Erweiterung bisheriger Modelle wird gezeigt, dass ein solcher Zustand nicht nur für die Grössenverteilung der Erdbeben (Gutenberg-Richter Gesetz), sondern auch für das beobachtete raumzeitliche Auftreten, z.B. für das Omori-Gesetz für Nachbebenserien, verantwortlich sein kann. Desweiteren wird die Frage nach der Vorhersagbarkeit grosser Erdbeben in solchen Modellsimulationen untersucht.