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In recent years, complex network analysis facilitated the identification of universal and unexpected patterns in complex climate systems. However, the analysis and representation of a multiscale complex relationship that exists in the global climate system are limited. A logical first step in addressing this issue is to construct multiple networks over different timescales. Therefore, we propose to apply the wavelet multiscale correlation (WMC) similarity measure, which is a combination of two state-of-the-art methods, viz. wavelet and Pearson’s correlation, for investigating multiscale processes through complex networks. Firstly we decompose the data over different timescales using the wavelet approach and subsequently construct a corresponding network by Pearson’s correlation. The proposed approach is illustrated and tested on two synthetics and one real-world example. The first synthetic case study shows the efficacy of the proposed approach to unravel scale-specific connections, which are often undiscovered at a single scale. The second synthetic case study illustrates that by dividing and constructing a separate network for each time window we can detect significant changes in the signal structure. The real-world example investigates the behavior of the global sea surface temperature (SST) network at different timescales. Intriguingly, we notice that spatial dependent structure in SST evolves temporally. Overall, the proposed measure has an immense potential to provide essential insights on understanding and extending complex multivariate process studies at multiple scales.
The quantification of spatial propagation of extreme precipitation events is vital in water resources planning and disaster mitigation. However, quantifying these extreme events has always been challenging as many traditional methods are insufficient to capture the nonlinear interrelationships between extreme event time series. Therefore, it is crucial to develop suitable methods for analyzing the dynamics of extreme events over a river basin with a diverse climate and complicated topography. Over the last decade, complex network analysis emerged as a powerful tool to study the intricate spatiotemporal relationship between many variables in a compact way. In this study, we employ two nonlinear concepts of event synchronization and edit distance to investigate the extreme precipitation pattern in the Ganga river basin. We use the network degree to understand the spatial synchronization pattern of extreme rainfall and identify essential sites in the river basin with respect to potential prediction skills. The study also attempts to quantify the influence of precipitation seasonality and topography on extreme events. The findings of the study reveal that (1) the network degree is decreased in the southwest to northwest direction, (2) the timing of 50th percentile precipitation within a year influences the spatial distribution of degree, (3) the timing is inversely related to elevation, and (4) the lower elevation greatly influences connectivity of the sites. The study highlights that edit distance could be a promising alternative to analyze event-like data by incorporating event time and amplitude and constructing complex networks of climate extremes.
Accurately predicting total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms is still a challenging task for ionospheric models. In this work, a neural-network (NN)-based model is proposed which predicts relative TEC with respect to the preceding 27-day median TEC, during storm time for the European region (with longitudes 30 degrees W-50 degrees E and latitudes 32.5 degrees N-70 degrees N). The 27-day median TEC (referred to as median TEC), latitude, longitude, universal time, storm time, solar radio flux index F10.7, global storm index SYM-H and geomagnetic activity index Hp30 are used as inputs and the output of the network is the relative TEC. The relative TEC can be converted to the actual TEC knowing the median TEC. The median TEC is calculated at each grid point over the European region considering data from the last 27 days before the storm using global ionosphere maps (GIMs) from international GNSS service (IGS) sources. A storm event is defined when the storm time disturbance index Dst drops below 50 nanotesla. The model was trained with storm-time relative TEC data from the time period of 1998 until 2019 (2015 is excluded) and contains 365 storms. Unseen storm data from 33 storm events during 2015 and 2020 were used to test the model. The UQRG GIMs were used because of their high temporal resolution (15 min) compared to other products from different analysis centers. The NN-based model predictions show the seasonal behavior of the storms including positive and negative storm phases during winter and summer, respectively, and show a mixture of both phases during equinoxes. The model's performance was also compared with the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM) and the NN-based quiet-time TEC model, both developed at the German Aerospace Agency (DLR). The storm model has a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 3.38 TEC units (TECU), which is an improvement by 1.87 TECU compared to the NTCM, where an RMSE of 5.25 TECU was found. This improvement corresponds to a performance increase by 35.6%. The storm-time model outperforms the quiet-time model by 1.34 TECU, which corresponds to a performance increase by 28.4% from 4.72 to 3.38 TECU. The quiet-time model was trained with Carrington averaged TEC and, therefore, is ideal to be used as an input instead of the GIM derived 27-day median. We found an improvement by 0.8 TECU which corresponds to a performance increase by 17% from 4.72 to 3.92 TECU for the storm-time model using the quiet-time-model predicted TEC as an input compared to solely using the quiet-time model.
In both eukaryotic and prokaryotic DNA sequences of 30-100 base-pairs rich in AT base-pairs have been identified at which the double helix preferentially unwinds. Such DNA unwinding elements are commonly associated with origins for DNA replication and transcription, and with chromosomal matrix attachment regions. Here we present a quantitative study of local DNA unwinding based on extensive single DNA plasmid imaging. We demonstrate that long-lived single-stranded denaturation bubbles exist in negatively supercoiled DNA, at the expense of partial twist release. Remarkably, we observe a linear relation between the degree of supercoiling and the bubble size, in excellent agreement with statistical modelling. Furthermore, we obtain the full distribution of bubble sizes and the opening probabilities at varying salt and temperature conditions. The results presented herein underline the important role of denaturation bubbles in negatively supercoiled DNA for biological processes such as transcription and replication initiation in vivo.
Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has had a major breakthrough with the impressive results obtained using systems of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has a huge potential in astrophysics, particle physics and cosmology. CTA is an international initiative to build the next generation instrument, with a factor of 5-10 improvement in sensitivity in the 100 GeV-10 TeV range and the extension to energies well below 100 GeV and above 100 TeV. CTA will consist of two arrays (one in the north, one in the south) for full sky coverage and will be operated as open observatory. The design of CTA is based on currently available technology. This document reports on the status and presents the major design concepts of CTA.
The origin of Galactic cosmic rays is a century-long puzzle. Indirect evidence points to their acceleration by supernova shockwaves, but we know little of their escape from the shock and their evolution through the turbulent medium surrounding massive stars. Gamma rays can probe their spreading through the ambient gas and radiation fields. The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has observed the star-forming region of Cygnus X. The 1- to 100-gigaelectronvolt images reveal a 50-parsec-wide cocoon of freshly accelerated cosmic rays that flood the cavities carved by the stellar winds and ionization fronts from young stellar clusters. It provides an example to study the youth of cosmic rays in a superbubble environment before they merge into the older Galactic population.
Supernova remnants (SNRs) are among the most important targets for gamma-ray observatories. Being prominent non-thermal sources, they are very likely responsible for the acceleration of the bulk of Galactic cosmic rays (CRS). To firmly establish the SNR paradigm for the origin of cosmic rays, it should be confirmed that protons are indeed accelerated in, and released from, SNRs with the appropriate flux and spectrum. This can be done by detailed theoretical models which account for microphysics of acceleration and various radiation processes of hadrons and leptons. The current generation of Cherenkov telescopes has insufficient sensitivity to constrain theoretical models. A new facility, the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), will have superior capabilities and may finally resolve this long standing issue of high-energy astrophysics. We want to assess the capabilities of CTA to reveal the physics of various types of SNRs in the initial 2000 years of their evolution. During this time, the efficiency to accelerate cosmic rays is highest. We perform time-dependent simulations of the hydrodynamics, the magnetic fields, the cosmic-ray acceleration, and the non-thermal emission for type Ia, Ic and IIP SNRs. We calculate the CTA response to the y-ray emission from these SNRs for various ages and distances, and we perform a realistic analysis of the simulated data. We derive distance limits for the detectability and resolvability of these SNR types at several ages. We test the ability of CTA to reconstruct their morphological and spectral parameters as a function of their distance. Finally, we estimate how well CTA data will constrain the theoretical models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Introducing the CTA concept
(2013)
The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is a new observatory for very high-energy (VHE) gamma rays. CTA has ambitions science goals, for which it is necessary to achieve full-sky coverage, to improve the sensitivity by about an order of magnitude, to span about four decades of energy, from a few tens of GeV to above 100 TeV with enhanced angular and energy resolutions over existing VHE gamma-ray observatories. An international collaboration has formed with more than 1000 members from 27 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and North and South America. In 2010 the CTA Consortium completed a Design Study and started a three-year Preparatory Phase which leads to production readiness of CTA in 2014. In this paper we introduce the science goals and the concept of CTA, and provide an overview of the project.
Prospects for Cherenkov Telescope Array Observations of the Young Supernova Remnant RX J1713.7-3946
(2017)
We perform simulations for future Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) observations of RX J1713.7-3946, a young supernova remnant (SNR) and one of the brightest sources ever discovered in very high energy (VHE) gamma rays. Special attention is paid to exploring possible spatial (anti) correlations of gamma rays with emission at other wavelengths, in particular X-rays and CO/H I emission. We present a series of simulated images of RX J1713.7-3946 for CTA based on a set of observationally motivated models for the gamma-ray emission. In these models, VHE gamma rays produced by high-energy electrons are assumed to trace the nonthermal X-ray emission observed by XMM-Newton, whereas those originating from relativistic protons delineate the local gas distributions. The local atomic and molecular gas distributions are deduced by the NANTEN team from CO and H I observations. Our primary goal is to show how one can distinguish the emission mechanism(s) of the gamma rays (i.e., hadronic versus leptonic, or a mixture of the two) through information provided by their spatial distribution, spectra, and time variation. This work is the first attempt to quantitatively evaluate the capabilities of CTA to achieve various proposed scientific goals by observing this important cosmic particle accelerator.
The variability of the blazar Markarian 421 in TeV gamma rays over a 14-year time period has been explored with the Whipple 10 m telescope. It is shown that the dynamic range of its flux variations is large and similar to that in X-rays. A correlation between the X-ray and TeV energy bands is observed during some bright flares and when the complete data sets are binned on long timescales. The main database consists of 878.4 h of observation with the Whipple telescope, spread over 783 nights. The peak energy response of the telescope was 400 GeV with 20% uncertainty. This is the largest database of any TeV-emitting active galactic nucleus (AGN) and hence was used to explore the variability profile of Markarian 421. The tithe-averaged flux from Markarian 421 over this period was 0.446 +/- 0.008 Crab flux units. The flux exceeded 10 Crab flux units on three separate occasions. For the 2000-2001 season the average flux reached 1.86 Crab units, while in the 1996-1997 season the average flux was only 0.23 Crab units.
We report the discovery of TeV gamma-ray emission from the Type Ia supernova remnant (SNR) G120.1+1.4, known as Tycho's SNR. Observations performed in the period 2008-2010 with the VERITAS ground-based gamma-ray observatory reveal weak emission coming from the direction of the remnant, compatible with a point source located at 00(h)25(m)27(s).0, +64 degrees 10'50 '' (J2000). The TeV photon spectrum measured by VERITAS can be described with a power law dN/dE = C(E/3.42 TeV)(-Gamma) with Gamma = 1.95 +/- 0.51(stat) +/- 0.30(sys) and C = (1.55 +/- 0.43(stat) +/- 0.47(sys)) x 10(-14) cm(-2) s(-1) TeV-1. The integral flux above 1 TeV corresponds to similar to 0.9% of the steady Crab Nebula emission above the same energy, making it one of the weakest sources yet detected in TeV gamma rays. We present both leptonic and hadronic models that can describe the data. The lowest magnetic field allowed in these models is similar to 80 mu G, which may be interpreted as evidence for magnetic field amplification.
We present the results of observations of the TeV binary LS I + 61 degrees 303 with the VERITAS telescope array between 2008 and 2010, at energies above 300 GeV. In the past, both ground-based gamma-ray telescopes VERITAS and MAGIC have reported detections of TeV emission near the apastron phases of the binary orbit. The observations presented here show no strong evidence for TeV emission during these orbital phases; however, during observations taken in late 2010, significant emission was detected from the source close to the phase of superior conjunction (much closer to periastron passage) at a 5.6 standard deviation (5.6 sigma) post-trials significance. In total, between 2008 October and 2010 December a total exposure of 64.5 hr was accumulated with VERITAS on LS I + 61 degrees 303, resulting in an excess at the 3.3 sigma significance level for constant emission over the entire integrated data set. The flux upper limits derived for emission during the previously reliably active TeV phases (i.e., close to apastron) are less than 5% of the Crab Nebula flux in the same energy range. This result stands in apparent contrast to previous observations by both MAGIC and VERITAS which detected the source during these phases at 10% of the Crab Nebula flux. During the two year span of observations, a large amount of X-ray data were also accrued on LS I + 61 degrees 303 by the Swift X-ray Telescope and the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array. We find no evidence for a correlation between emission in the X-ray and TeV regimes during 20 directly overlapping observations. We also comment on data obtained contemporaneously by the Fermi Large Area Telescope.
We present the results of 16 Swift-triggered Gamma-ray burst (GRB) follow-up observations taken with the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS) telescope array from 2007 January to 2009 June. The median energy threshold and response time of these observations were 260 GeV and 320 s, respectively. Observations had an average duration of 90 minutes. Each burst is analyzed independently in two modes: over the whole duration of the observations and again over a shorter timescale determined by the maximum VERITAS sensitivity to a burst with a t(-1.5) time profile. This temporal model is characteristic of GRB afterglows with high-energy, long-lived emission that have been detected by the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi satellite. No significant very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission was detected and upper limits above the VERITAS threshold energy are calculated. The VERITAS upper limits are corrected for gamma-ray extinction by the extragalactic background light and interpreted in the context of the keV emission detected by Swift. For some bursts the VHE emission must have less power than the keV emission, placing constraints on inverse Compton models of VHE emission.
Giant X-ray outbursts, with luminosities of about 10(37) erg s(-1), are observed roughly every five years from the nearby Be/pulsar binary 1A 0535+262. In this article, we present observations of the source with VERITAS at very high energies (VHEs; E > 100 GeV) triggered by the X-ray outburst in 2009 December. The observations started shortly after the onset of the outburst and provided comprehensive coverage of the episode, as well as the 111 day binary orbit. No VHE emission is evident at any time. We also examined data from the contemporaneous observations of 1A 0535+262 with the Fermi/Large Area Telescope at high-energy photons (E > 0.1 GeV) and failed to detect the source at GeV energies. The X-ray continua measured with the Swift/X-Ray Telescope and the RXTE/PCA can be well described by the combination of blackbody and Comptonized emission from thermal electrons. Therefore, the gamma-ray and X-ray observations suggest the absence of a significant population of non-thermal particles in the system. This distinguishes 1A 0535+262 from those Be X-ray binaries (such as PSR B1259-63 and LS I +61 degrees 303) that have been detected at GeV-TeV energies. We discuss the implications of the results on theoretical models.
This Letter reports the discovery of a remarkably hard spectrum source, HESS J1641-463, by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) in the very high energy (VHE) domain. HESS J1641-463 remained unnoticed by the usual analysis techniques due to confusion with the bright nearby source HESS J1640-465. It emerged at a significance level of 8.5 standard deviations after restricting the analysis to events with energies above 4 TeV. It shows a moderate flux level of phi(E > 1TeV) = (3.64 +/- 0.44(stat)+/- 0.73(sys)) x 10(-13) cm(-2) s(-1), corresponding to 1.8% of the Crab Nebula flux above the same energy, and a hard spectrum with a photon index of Gamma = 2.07 +/- 0.11(stat)+/- 0.20(sys). It is a point-like source, although an extension up to a Gaussian width of sigma = 3 arcmin cannot be discounted due to uncertainties in the H.E.S.S. point-spread function. The VHE gamma-ray flux of HESS J1641-463 is found to be constant over the observed period when checking time binnings from the year-by-year to the 28 minute exposure timescales. HESS J1641-463 is positionally coincident with the radio supernova remnant SNR G338.5+0.1. No X-ray candidate stands out as a clear association; however, Chandra and XMM-Newton data reveal some potential weak counterparts. Various VHE gamma-ray production scenarios are discussed. If the emission from HESS J1641-463 is produced by cosmic ray protons colliding with the ambient gas, then their spectrum must extend close to 1 PeV. This object may represent a source population contributing significantly to the galactic cosmic ray flux around the knee.
Re-observations with the HESS telescope array of the very high-energy (VHE) source HESS J1018-589A that is coincident with the Fermi-LAT gamma-ray binary 1FGL J1018.6-5856 have resulted in a source detection significance of more than 9 sigma and the detection of variability (chi(2)/nu of 238.3/155) in the emitted gamma-ray flux. This variability confirms the association of HESS J1018-589A with the high-energy gamma-ray binary detected Fermi-LAT and also confirms the point-like source as a new VHE binary system. The spectrum of HESS J1018-589A is best fit with a power-law function with photon index Gamma = 2.20 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.2(sys). Emission is detected up to similar to 20 TeV. The mean differential flux level is (2.9 +/- 0.4) x 10(-13) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1) at 1 TeV, equivalent to similar to 1% of the flux from the Crab Nebula at the same energy. Variability is clearly detected the night-by-night light curve. When folded on the orbital period of 16.58 days, the rebinned light curve peaks in phase with the observed X-ray high-energy phaseograms. The fit of the HESS phaseogram to a constant flux provides evidence of periodicity at the level of N-sigma > 3 sigma. The of the VHE phaseogram and measured spectrum suggest a low-inclination, low-eccentricity system with a modest impact from VHE gamma-ray due to pair production (tau less than or similar to 1 at 300 GeV).
Galactic cosmic rays reach energies of at least a few petaelectronvolts (of the order of 1015 electronvolts). This implies that our Galaxy contains petaelectronvolt accelerators (‘PeVatrons’), but all proposed models of Galactic cosmic-ray accelerators encounter difficulties at exactly these energies. Dozens of Galactic accelerators capable of accelerating particles to energies of tens of teraelectronvolts (of the order of 1013 electronvolts) were inferred from recent γ-ray observations3. However, none of the currently known accelerators—not even the handful of shell-type supernova remnants commonly believed to supply most Galactic cosmic rays—has shown the characteristic tracers of petaelectronvolt particles, namely, power-law spectra of γ-rays extending without a cut-off or a spectral break to tens of teraelectronvolts4. Here we report deep γ-ray observations with arcminute angular resolution of the region surrounding the Galactic Centre, which show the expected tracer of the presence of petaelectronvolt protons within the central 10 parsecs of the Galaxy. We propose that the supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* is linked to this PeVatron. Sagittarius A* went through active phases in the past, as demonstrated by X-ray outbursts5and an outflow from the Galactic Centre6. Although its current rate of particle acceleration is not sufficient to provide a substantial contribution to Galactic cosmic rays, Sagittarius A* could have plausibly been more active over the last 106–107 years, and therefore should be considered as a viable alternative to supernova remnants as a source of petaelectronvolt Galactic cosmic rays.