Institut für Physik und Astronomie
Refine
Year of publication
- 2020 (246) (remove)
Document Type
- Article (177)
- Postprint (35)
- Doctoral Thesis (31)
- Monograph/Edited Volume (1)
- Other (1)
- Review (1)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (246)
Keywords
- diffusion (16)
- anomalous diffusion (7)
- model (6)
- perovskite solar cells (6)
- random diffusivity (5)
- dynamics (4)
- impact (4)
- methods: numerical (4)
- photoluminescence (4)
- subdwarfs (4)
Institute
The remarkable progress of metal halide perovskites in photovoltaics has led to the power conversion efficiency approaching 26%. However, practical applications of perovskite-based solar cells are challenged by the stability issues, of which the most critical one is photo-induced degradation. Bare CH3NH3PbI3 perovskite films are known to decompose rapidly, with methylammonium and iodine as volatile species and residual solid PbI2 and metallic Pb, under vacuum under white light illumination, on the timescale of minutes. We find, in agreement with previous work, that the degradation is non-uniform and proceeds predominantly from the surface, and that illumination under N-2 and ambient air (relative humidity 20%) does not induce substantial degradation even after several hours. Yet, in all cases the release of iodine from the perovskite surface is directly identified by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. This goes in hand with a loss of organic cations and the formation of metallic Pb. When CH3NH3PbI3 films are covered with a few nm thick organic capping layer, either charge selective or non-selective, the rapid photodecomposition process under ultrahigh vacuum is reduced by more than one order of magnitude, and becomes similar in timescale to that under N-2 or air. We conclude that the light-induced decomposition reaction of CH3NH3PbI3, leading to volatile methylammonium and iodine, is largely reversible as long as these products are restrained from leaving the surface. This is readily achieved by ambient atmospheric pressure, as well as a thin organic capping layer even under ultrahigh vacuum. In addition to explaining the impact of gas pressure on the stability of this perovskite, our results indicate that covalently "locking" the position of perovskite components at the surface or an interface should enhance the overall photostability.
Organic photovoltaics based on non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs) show record efficiency of 16 to 17% and increased photovoltage owing to the low driving force for interfacial charge-transfer. However, the low driving force potentially slows down charge generation, leading to a tradeoff between voltage and current. Here, we disentangle the intrinsic charge-transfer rates from morphology-dependent exciton diffusion for a series of polymer:NFA systems. Moreover, we establish the influence of the interfacial energetics on the electron and hole transfer rates separately. We demonstrate that charge-transfer timescales remain at a few hundred femtoseconds even at near-zero driving force, which is consistent with the rates predicted by Marcus theory in the normal region, at moderate electronic coupling and at low re-organization energy. Thus, in the design of highly efficient devices, the energy offset at the donor:acceptor interface can be minimized without jeopardizing the charge-transfer rate and without concerns about a current-voltage tradeoff.
Organic photovoltaics based on non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs) show record efficiency of 16 to 17% and increased photovoltage owing to the low driving force for interfacial charge-transfer. However, the low driving force potentially slows down charge generation, leading to a tradeoff between voltage and current. Here, we disentangle the intrinsic charge-transfer rates from morphology-dependent exciton diffusion for a series of polymer:NFA systems. Moreover, we establish the influence of the interfacial energetics on the electron and hole transfer rates separately. We demonstrate that charge-transfer timescales remain at a few hundred femtoseconds even at near-zero driving force, which is consistent with the rates predicted by Marcus theory in the normal region, at moderate electronic coupling and at low re-organization energy. Thus, in the design of highly efficient devices, the energy offset at the donor:acceptor interface can be minimized without jeopardizing the charge-transfer rate and without concerns about a current-voltage tradeoff.
The plasmasphere is a dynamic region of cold, dense plasma surrounding the Earth. Its shape and size are highly susceptible to variations in solar and geomagnetic conditions. Having an accurate model of plasma density in the plasmasphere is important for GNSS navigation and for predicting hazardous effects of radiation in space on spacecraft. The distribution of cold plasma and its dynamic dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic conditions remain, however, poorly quantified. Existing empirical models of plasma density tend to be oversimplified as they are based on statistical averages over static parameters. Understanding the global dynamics of the plasmasphere using observations from space remains a challenge, as existing density measurements are sparse and limited to locations where satellites can provide in-situ observations. In this dissertation, we demonstrate how such sparse electron density measurements can be used to reconstruct the global electron density distribution in the plasmasphere and capture its dynamic dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic conditions.
First, we develop an automated algorithm to determine the electron density from in-situ measurements of the electric field on the Van Allen Probes spacecraft. In particular, we design a neural network to infer the upper hybrid resonance frequency from the dynamic spectrograms obtained with the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) instrumentation suite, which is then used to calculate the electron number density. The developed Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination (NURD) algorithm is applied to more than four years of EMFISIS measurements to produce the publicly available electron density data set.
We utilize the obtained electron density data set to develop a new global model of plasma density by employing a neural network-based modeling approach. In addition to the location, the model takes the time history of geomagnetic indices and location as inputs, and produces electron density in the equatorial plane as an output. It is extensively validated using in-situ density measurements from the Van Allen Probes mission, and also by comparing the predicted global evolution of the plasmasphere with the global IMAGE EUV images of He+ distribution. The model successfully reproduces erosion of the plasmasphere on the night side as well as plume formation and evolution, and agrees well with data.
The performance of neural networks strongly depends on the availability of training data, which is limited during intervals of high geomagnetic activity. In order to provide reliable density predictions during such intervals, we can employ physics-based modeling. We develop a new approach for optimally combining the neural network- and physics-based models of the plasmasphere by means of data assimilation. The developed approach utilizes advantages of both neural network- and physics-based modeling and produces reliable global plasma density reconstructions for quiet, disturbed, and extreme geomagnetic conditions.
Finally, we extend the developed machine learning-based tools and apply them to another important problem in the field of space weather, the prediction of the geomagnetic index Kp. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere, the radiation belts and the plasmasphere. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast and make short-term predictions of Kp, basing their inferences on the recent history of Kp and solar wind measurements at L1. We analyze how the performance of neural networks compares to other machine learning algorithms for nowcasting and forecasting Kp for up to 12 hours ahead. Additionally, we investigate several machine learning and information theory methods for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model of Kp. The developed tools for feature selection can also be applied to other problems in space physics in order to reduce the input dimensionality and identify the most important drivers.
Research outlined in this dissertation clearly demonstrates that machine learning tools can be used to develop empirical models from sparse data and also can be used to understand the underlying physical processes. Combining machine learning, physics-based modeling and data assimilation allows us to develop novel methods benefiting from these different approaches.
Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica.
The Milky Way is a spiral galaxy consisting of a disc of gas, dust and stars embedded in a halo of dark matter. Within this dark matter halo there is also a diffuse population of stars called the stellar halo, that has been accreting stars for billions of years from smaller galaxies that get pulled in and disrupted by the large gravitational potential of the Milky Way. As they are disrupted, these galaxies leave behind long streams of stars that can take billions of years to mix with the rest of the stars in the halo. Furthermore, the amount of heavy elements (metallicity) of the stars in these galaxies reflects the rate of chemical enrichment that occurred in them, since the Universe has been slowly enriched in heavy elements (e.g. iron) through successive generations of stars which produce them in their cores and supernovae explosions. Therefore, stars that contain small amounts of heavy elements (metal-poor stars) either formed at early times before the Universe was significantly enriched, or in isolated environments. The aim of this thesis is to develop a better understanding of the substructure content and chemistry of the Galactic stellar halo, in order to gain further insight into the formation and evolution of the Milky Way.
The Pristine survey uses a narrow-band filter which specifically targets the Ca II H & K spectral absorption lines to provide photometric metallicities for a large number of stars down to the extremely metal-poor (EMP) regime, making it a very powerful data set for Galactic archaeology studies. In Chapter 2, we quantify the efficiency of the survey using a preliminary spectroscopic follow-up sample of ~ 200 stars. We also use this sample to establish a set of selection criteria to improve the success rate of selecting EMP candidates for follow-up spectroscopy. In Chapter 3, we extend this work and present the full catalogue of ~ 1000 stars from a three year long medium resolution spectroscopic follow-up effort conducted as part of the Pristine survey. From this sample, we compute success rates of 56% and 23% for recovering stars with [Fe/H] < -2.5 and [Fe/H] < -3.0, respectively. This demonstrates a high efficiency for finding EMP stars as compared to previous searches with success rates of 3-4%.
In Chapter 4, we select a sample of ~ 80000 halo stars using colour and magnitude cuts to select a main sequence turnoff population in the distance range 6 < dʘ < 20 kpc. We then use the spectroscopic follow-up sample presented in Chapter 3 to statistically rescale the Pristine photometric metallicities of this sample, and present the resulting corrected metallicity distribution function (MDF) of the halo. The slope at the metal-poor end is significantly shallower than previous spectroscopic efforts have shown, suggesting that there may be more metal-poor stars with [Fe/H] < -2.5 in the halo than previously thought. This sample also shows evidence that the MDF of the halo may not be bimodal as was proposed by previous works, and that the lack of globular clusters in the Milky Way may be the result of a physical truncation of the MDF rather than just statistical under-sampling.
Chapter 5 showcases the unexpected capability of the Pristine filter for separating blue horizontal branch (BHB) stars from Blue Straggler (BS) stars. We demonstrate a purity of 93% and completeness of 91% for identifying BHB stars, a substantial improvement over previous works. We then use this highly pure and complete sample of BHB stars to trace the halo density profile out to d > 100 kpc, and the Sagittarius stream substructure out to ~ 130 kpc.
In Chapter 6 we use the photometric metallicities from the Pristine survey to perform a clustering analysis of the halo as a function of metallicity. Separating the Pristine sample into four metallicity bins of [Fe/H] < -2, -2 < [Fe/H] < -1.5, -1.5 < [Fe/H] < -1 and -0.9 < [Fe/H] < -0.8, we compute the two-point correlation function to measure the amount of clustering on scales of < 5 deg. For a smooth comparison sample we make a mock Pristine data set generated using the Galaxia code based on the Besançon model of the Galaxy. We find enhanced clustering on small scales (< 0.5 deg) for some regions of the Galaxy for the most metal-poor bin ([Fe/H] < -2), while in others we see large scale signals that correspond to known substructures in those directions. This confirms that the substructure content of the halo is highly anisotropic and diverse in different Galactic environments. We discuss the difficulties of removing systematic clustering signals from the data and the limitations of disentangling weak clustering signals from real substructures and residual systematic structure in the data.
Taken together, the work presented in this thesis approaches the problem of better understanding the halo of our Galaxy from multiple angles. Firstly, presenting a sizeable sample of EMP stars and improving the selection efficiency of EMP stars for the Pristine survey, paving the way for the further discovery of metal-poor stars to be used as probes to early chemical evolution. Secondly, improving the selection of BHB distance tracers to map out the halo to large distances, and finally, using the large samples of metal-poor stars to derive the MDF of the inner halo and analyse the substructure content at different metallicities. The results of this thesis therefore expand our understanding of the physical and chemical properties of the Milky Way stellar halo, and provide insight into the processes involved in its formation and evolution.
Excitable solitons
(2020)
Excitable pulses are among the most widespread dynamical patterns that occur in many different systems, ranging from biological cells to chemical reactions and ecological populations. Traditionally, the mutual annihilation of two colliding pulses is regarded as their prototypical signature. Here we show that colliding excitable pulses may exhibit solitonlike crossover and pulse nucleation if the system obeys a mass conservation constraint. In contrast to previous observations in systems without mass conservation, these alternative collision scenarios are robustly observed over a wide range of parameters. We demonstrate our findings using a model of intracellular actin waves since, on time scales of wave propagations over the cell scale, cells obey conservation of actin monomers. The results provide a key concept to understand the ubiquitous occurrence of actin waves in cells, suggesting why they are so common, and why their dynamics is robust and long-lived.
This paper presents a study of the surface properties of two Ce/Zr mixed oxides with different reducibility, obtained by applying distinct thermal ageing treatments to an oxide with the composition Ce0.62Zr0.38O2. The surface composition was investigated by XPS. Chemical reactivity of the surface was studied by adsorption of the probe molecules CO2, D-2 and methanol. Nanostructural characterization was carried out by XRD, Raman and high-resolution Eu3+ spectroscopy (FLNS). The characterization showed only slight variations in surface composition and bulk Ce-Zr distribution, but hardy differences concerning the type and strength of acidic surface centres, as well as strong differences in the ability to dissociate hydrogen. Structural variations between both samples were identified by comparing the optical spectra of Eu3+ in surface doped samples.
Heterogeneous diffusion processes (HDPs) with space-dependent diffusion coefficients D(x) are found in a number of real-world systems, such as for diffusion of macromolecules or submicron tracers in biological cells. Here, we examine HDPs in quenched-disorder systems with Gaussian colored noise (GCN) characterized by a diffusion coefficient with a power-law dependence on the particle position and with a spatially random scaling exponent. Typically, D(x) is considered to be centerd at the origin and the entire x axis is characterized by a single scaling exponent a. In this work we consider a spatially random scenario: in periodic intervals ("layers") in space D(x) is centerd to the midpoint of each interval. In each interval the scaling exponent alpha is randomly chosen from a Gaussian distribution. The effects of the variation of the scaling exponents, the periodicity of the domains ("layer thickness") of the diffusion coefficient in this stratified system, and the correlation time of the GCN are analyzed numerically in detail. We discuss the regimes of superdiffusion, subdiffusion, and normal diffusion realisable in this system. We observe and quantify the domains where nonergodic and non-Gaussian behaviors emerge in this system. Our results provide new insights into the understanding of weak ergodicity breaking for HDPs driven by colored noise, with potential applications in quenched layered systems, typical model systems for diffusion in biological cells and tissues, as well as for diffusion in geophysical systems.
Levy walks (LWs) are spatiotemporally coupled random-walk processes describing superdiffusive heat conduction in solids, propagation of light in disordered optical materials, motion of molecular motors in living cells, or motion of animals, humans, robots, and viruses. We here investigate a key feature of LWs-their response to an external harmonic potential. In this generic setting for confined motion we demonstrate that LWs equilibrate exponentially and may assume a bimodal stationary distribution. We also show that the stationary distribution has a horizontal slope next to a reflecting boundary placed at the origin, in contrast to correlated superdiffusive processes. Our results generalize LWs to confining forces and settle some longstanding puzzles around LWs.
To analyze stochastic processes, one often uses integral transform (Fourier and Laplace) methods. However, for the time-space coupled cases, e.g. the Levy walk, sometimes the integral transform method may fail. Here we provide a Hermite polynomial expansion approach, being complementary to the integral transform method, to the Levy walk. Two approaches are compared for some already known results. We also consider the generalized Levy walk with parameter dependent velocity. Namely, we consider the Levy walk with velocity which depends on the walking length or on the duration of each step. Some interesting features of the generalized Levy walk are observed, including the special shapes of the probability density function, the first passage time distributions, and various diffusive behaviors of the mean squared displacement.
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C.
Reflecting in written form on one's teaching enactments has been considered a facilitator for teachers' professional growth in university-based preservice teacher education. Writing a structured reflection can be facilitated through external feedback. However, researchers noted that feedback in preservice teacher education often relies on holistic, rather than more content-based, analytic feedback because educators oftentimes lack resources (e.g., time) to provide more analytic feedback. To overcome this impediment to feedback for written reflection, advances in computer technology can be of use. Hence, this study sought to utilize techniques of natural language processing and machine learning to train a computer-based classifier that classifies preservice physics teachers' written reflections on their teaching enactments in a German university teacher education program. To do so, a reflection model was adapted to physics education. It was then tested to what extent the computer-based classifier could accurately classify the elements of the reflection model in segments of preservice physics teachers' written reflections. Multinomial logistic regression using word count as a predictor was found to yield acceptable average human-computer agreement (F1-score on held-out test dataset of 0.56) so that it might fuel further development towards an automated feedback tool that supplements existing holistic feedback for written reflections with data-based, analytic feedback.
Perovskite solar cells have become one of the most studied systems in the quest for new, cheap and efficient solar cell materials. Within a decade device efficiencies have risen to >25% in single-junction and >29% in tandem devices on top of silicon. This rapid improvement was in many ways fortunate, as e. g. the energy levels of commonly used halide perovskites are compatible with already existing materials from other photovoltaic technologies such as dye-sensitized or organic solar cells. Despite this rapid success, fundamental working principles must be understood to allow concerted further improvements. This thesis focuses on a comprehensive understanding of recombination processes in functioning devices.
First the impact the energy level alignment between the perovskite and the electron transport layer based on fullerenes is investigated. This controversial topic is comprehensively addressed and recombination is mitigated through reducing the energy difference between the perovskite conduction band minimum and the LUMO of the fullerene. Additionally, an insulating blocking layer is introduced, which is even more effective in reducing this recombination, without compromising carrier collection and thus efficiency. With the rapid efficiency development (certified efficiencies have broken through the 20% ceiling) and thousands of researchers working on perovskite-based optoelectronic devices, reliable protocols on how to reach these efficiencies are lacking. Having established robust methods for >20% devices, while keeping track of possible pitfalls, a detailed description of the fabrication of perovskite solar cells at the highest efficiency level (>20%) is provided. The fabrication of low-temperature p-i-n structured devices is described, commenting on important factors such as practical experience, processing atmosphere & temperature, material purity and solution age. Analogous to reliable fabrication methods, a method to identify recombination losses is needed to further improve efficiencies. Thus, absolute photoluminescence is identified as a direct way to quantify the Quasi-Fermi level splitting of the perovskite absorber (1.21eV) and interfacial recombination losses the transport layers impose, reducing the latter to ~1.1eV. Implementing very thin interlayers at both the p- and n-interface (PFN-P2 and LiF, respectively), these losses are suppressed, enabling a VOC of up to 1.17eV. Optimizing the device dimensions and the bandgap, 20% devices with 1cm2 active area are demonstrated. Another important consideration is the solar cells’ stability if subjected to field-relevant stressors during operation. In particular these are heat, light, bias or a combination thereof. Perovskite layers – especially those incorporating organic cations – have been shown to degrade if subjected to these stressors. Keeping in mind that several interlayers have been successfully used to mitigate recombination losses, a family of perfluorinated self-assembled monolayers (X-PFCn, where X denotes I/Br and n = 7-12) are introduced as interlayers at the n-interface. Indeed, they reduce interfacial recombination losses enabling device efficiencies up to 21.3%. Even more importantly they improve the stability of the devices. The solar cells with IPFC10 are stable over 3000h stored in the ambient and withstand a harsh 250h of MPP at 85◦C without appreciable efficiency losses. To advance further and improve device efficiencies, a sound understanding of the photophysics of a device is imperative. Many experimental observations in recent years have however drawn an inconclusive picture, often suffering from technical of physical impediments, disguising e. g. capacitive discharge as recombination dynamics. To circumvent these obstacles, fully operational, highly efficient perovskites solar cells are investigated by a combination of multiple optical and optoelectronic probes, allowing to draw a conclusive picture of the recombination dynamics in operation. Supported by drift-diffusion simulations, the device recombination dynamics can be fully described by a combination of first-, second- and third-order recombination and JV curves as well as luminescence efficiencies over multiple illumination intensities are well described within the model. On this basis steady state carrier densities, effective recombination constants, densities-of-states and effective masses are calculated, putting the devices at the brink of the radiative regime. Moreover, a comprehensive review of recombination in state-of-the-art devices is given, highlighting the importance of interfaces in nonradiative recombination. Different strategies to assess these are discussed, before emphasizing successful strategies to reduce interfacial recombination and pointing towards the necessary steps to further improve device efficiency and stability. Overall, the main findings represent an advancement in understanding loss mechanisms in highly efficient solar cells. Different reliable optoelectronic techniques are used and interfacial losses are found to be of grave importance for both efficiency and stability. Addressing the interfaces, several interlayers are introduced, which mitigate recombination losses and degradation.
Context.
Tycho's supernova remnant (SNR) is associated with the historical supernova (SN) event SN 1572 of Type Ia. The explosion occurred in a relatively clean environment, and was visually observed, providing an age estimate. This SNR therefore represents an ideal astrophysical test-bed for the study of cosmic-ray acceleration and related phenomena. A number of studies suggest that shock acceleration with particle feedback and very efficient magnetic-field amplification combined with Alfvenic drift are needed to explain the rather soft radio spectrum and the narrow rims observed in X-rays.
Aims.
We show that the broadband spectrum of Tycho's SNR can alternatively be well explained when accounting for stochastic acceleration as a secondary process. The re-acceleration of particles in the turbulent region immediately downstream of the shock should be efficient enough to impact particle spectra over several decades in energy. The so-called Alfvenic drift and particle feedback on the shock structure are not required in this scenario. Additionally, we investigate whether synchrotron losses or magnetic-field damping play a more profound role in the formation of the non-thermal filaments.
Methods.
We solved the full particle transport equation in test-particle mode using hydrodynamic simulations of the SNR plasma flow. The background magnetic field was either computed from the induction equation or follows analytic profiles, depending on the model considered. Fast-mode waves in the downstream region provide the diffusion of particles in momentum space.
Results.
We show that the broadband spectrum of Tycho can be well explained if magnetic-field damping and stochastic re-acceleration of particles are taken into account. Although not as efficient as standard diffusive shock acceleration, stochastic acceleration leaves its imprint on the particle spectra, which is especially notable in the emission at radio wavelengths. We find a lower limit for the post-shock magnetic-field strength similar to 330 mu G, implying efficient amplification even for the magnetic-field damping scenario. Magnetic-field damping is necessary for the formation of the filaments in the radio range, while the X-ray filaments are shaped by both the synchrotron losses and magnetic-field damping.
After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term.
After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term.
The passive and active motion of micron-sized tracer particles in crowded liquids and inside living biological cells is ubiquitously characterised by 'viscoelastic' anomalous diffusion, in which the increments of the motion feature long-ranged negative and positive correlations. While viscoelastic anomalous diffusion is typically modelled by a Gaussian process with correlated increments, so-called fractional Gaussian noise, an increasing number of systems are reported, in which viscoelastic anomalous diffusion is paired with non-Gaussian displacement distributions. Following recent advances in Brownian yet non-Gaussian diffusion we here introduce and discuss several possible versions of random-diffusivity models with long-ranged correlations. While all these models show a crossover from non-Gaussian to Gaussian distributions beyond some correlation time, their mean squared displacements exhibit strikingly different behaviours: depending on the model crossovers from anomalous to normal diffusion are observed, as well as a priori unexpected dependencies of the effective diffusion coefficient on the correlation exponent. Our observations of the non-universality of random-diffusivity viscoelastic anomalous diffusion are important for the analysis of experiments and a better understanding of the physical origins of 'viscoelastic yet non-Gaussian' diffusion.