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In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Eigenschaften geschlossener fluider Membranen, sogenannter Vesikeln, bei endlichen Temperaturen untersucht. Dies beinhaltet Betrachtungen zur Form freier Vesikeln, eine Untersuchung des Adhäsionsverhaltens von Vesikeln an planaren Substraten sowie eine Untersuchung der Eigenschaften fluider Vesikeln in eingeschränkten Geometrien. Diese Untersuchungen fanden mit Hilfe von Monte-Carlo-Simulationen einer triangulierten Vesikeloberfläche statt. Die statistischen Eigenschaften der fluktuierenden fluiden Vesikeln wurden zum Teil mittels Freier-Energie-Profile analysiert. In diesem Zusammenhang wurde eine neuartige Histogrammethode entwickelt.<BR> Die Form für eine freie fluide Vesikel mit frei veränderlichem Volumen, die das Konfigurationsenergie-Funktional minimiert, ist im Falle verschwindender Temperatur eine Kugel. Mit Hilfe von Monte-Carlo-Simulationen sowie einem analytisch behandelbaren Modellsystem konnte gezeigt werden, daß sich dieses Ergebnis nicht auf endliche Temperaturen verallgemeinern lässt und statt dessen leicht prolate und oblate Vesikelformen gegenüber der Kugelgestalt überwiegen. Dabei ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit für eine prolate Form ein wenig gröoßer als für eine oblate. Diese spontane Asphärizität ist entropischen Ursprungs und tritt nicht bei zweidimensionalen Vesikeln auf. Durch osmotische Drücke in der Vesikel, die größer sind als in der umgebenden Flüssigkeit, lässt sich die Asphärizität reduzieren oder sogar kompensieren. Die Übergänge zwischen den beobachteten prolaten und oblaten Formen erfolgen im Bereich von Millisekunden in Abwesenheit osmotisch aktiver Partikel. Bei Vorhandensein derartiger Partikel ergeben sich Übergangszeiten im Bereich von Sekunden. Im Rahmen der Untersuchung des Adhäsionsverhaltens fluider Vesikeln an planaren, homogenen Substraten konnte mit Hilfe von Monte-Carlo-Simulationen festgestellt werden, dass die Eigenschaften der Kontaktfläche der Vesikeln stark davon abhängen, welche Kräfte den Kontakt bewirken. Für eine dominierende attraktive Wechselwirkung zwischen Substrat und Vesikelmembran sowie im Falle eines Massendichteunterschieds der Flüssigkeiten innerhalb und außerhalb der Vesikel, der die Vesikel auf das Substrat sinken lässt, fndet man innerhalb der Kontakt ache eine ortsunabhangige Verteilung des Abstands zwischen Vesikelmembran und Substrat. Drückt die Vesikel ohne Berücksichtigung osmotischer Effekte auf Grund einer Differenz der Massendichten der Membran und der umgebenden Flüssigkeit gegen das Substrat, so erhält man eine Abstandsverteilung zwischen Vesikelmembran und Substrat, die mit dem Abstand vom Rand der Kontaktfläche variiert. Dieser Effekt ist zudem temperaturabhängig. Ferner wurde die Adhäsion fluider Vesikeln an chemisch strukturierten planaren Substraten untersucht. Durch das Wechselspiel von entropischen Effekten und Konfigurationsenergien entsteht eine komplexe Abhängigkeit der Vesikelform von Biegesteifigkeit, osmotischen Bedingungen und der Geometrie der attraktiven Domänen. Für die Bestimmung der Biegesteifigkeit der Vesikelmembranen liefern die existierenden Verfahren stark voneinander abweichende Ergebnisse. In der vorliegenden Arbeit konnte mittels Monte-Carlo-Simulationen zur Bestimmung der Biegesteifigkeit anhand des Mikropipettenverfahrens von Evans gezeigt werden, dass dieses Verfahren die a priori für die Simulation vorgegebene Biegesteifigkeit im wesentlichen reproduzieren kann. Im Hinblick auf medizinisch-pharmazeutische Anwendungen ist der Durchgang fluider Vesikeln durch enge Poren relevant. In Monte-Carlo-Simulationen konnte gezeigt werden, dass ein spontaner Transport der Vesikel durch ein Konzentrationsgefälle osmotisch aktiver Substanzen, das den physiologischen Bedingungen entspricht, induziert werden kann. Es konnten die hierfür notwendigen osmotischen Bedingungen sowie die charakteristischen Zeitskalen abgeschätzt werden. Im realen Experiment sind Eindringzeiten in eine enge Pore im Bereich weniger Minuten zu erwarten. Ferner konnte beobachtet werden, dass bei Vesikeln mit einer homogenen, positiven spontanen Krümmung Deformationen hin zu prolaten Formen leichter erfolgen als bei Vesikeln ohne spontane Krümmung. Mit diesem Effekt ist eine Verringerung der Energiebarriere für das Eindringen in eine Pore verbunden, deren Radius nur wenig kleiner als der Vesikelradius ist.
The Thesis is focused on the properties of self-organized nanostructures. Atomic and electronic properties of different systems have been investigated using methods of electron diffraction, scanning tunneling microscopy and photoelectron spectroscopy. Implementation of the STM technique (including design, construction, and tuning of the UHV experimental set-up) has been done in the framework of present work. This time-consuming work is reported to greater detail in the experimental part of this Thesis. The scientific part starts from the study of quantum-size effects in the electronic structure of a two-dimensional Ag film on the supporting substrate Ni(111). Distinct quantum well states in the sp-band of Ag were observed in photoelectron spectra. Analysis of thickness- and angle-dependent photoemission supplies novel information on the properties of the interface. For the first time the Ni(111) relative band gap was indirectly probed in the ground-state through the electronic structure of quantum well states in the adlayer. This is particularly important for Ni where valence electrons are strongly correlated. Comparison of the experiment with calculations performed in the formalism of the extended phase accumulation model gives the substrate gap which is fully consistent with the one obtained by ab-initio LDA calculations. It is, however, in controversy to the band structure of Ni measured directly by photoemission. These results lend credit to the simplest view of photoemission from Ni, assigning early observed contradictions between theory and experiments to electron correlation effects in the final state of photoemission. Further, nanosystems of lower dimensionality have been studied. Stepped surfaces W(331) and W(551) were used as one-dimensional model systems and as templates for self-organization of Au nanoclusters. Photon energy dependent photoemission revealed a surface resonance which was never observed before on W(110) which is the base plane of the terrace microsurfaces. The dispersion E(k) of this state measured on stepped W(331) and W(551) with angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy is modified by a strong umklapp effect. It appears as two parabolas shifted symmetrically relative to the microsurface normal by half of the Brillouin zone of the step superlattice. The reported results are very important for understanding of the electronic properties of low-dimensional nanostructures. It was also established that W(331) and W(551) can serve as templates for self-organization of metallic nanostructures. A combined study of electronic and atomic properties of sub-monolayer amounts of gold deposited on these templates have shown that if the substrate is slightly pre-oxidized and the temperature is elevated, then Au can alloy with the first monolayer of W. As a result, a nanostructure of uniform clusters of a surface alloy is produced all over the steps. Such clusters feature a novel sp-band in the vicinity of the Fermi level, which appears split into constant energy levels due to effects of lateral quantization. The last and main part of this work is devoted to large-scale reconstructions on surfaces and nanostructures self-assembled on top. The two-dimensional surface carbide W(110)/C-R(15x3) has been extensively investigated. Photoemission studies of quantum size effects in the electronic structure of this reconstruction, combined with an investigation of its surface geometry, lead to an advanced structural model of the carbide overlayer. It was discovered that W(110)/C-R(15x3) can control self-organization of adlayers into nanostructures with extremely different electronic and structural properties. Thus, it was established that at elevated temperature the R(15x3) superstructure controls the self-assembly of sub-monolayer amounts of Au into nm-wide nanostripes. Based on the results of core level photoemission, the R(15x3)-induced surface alloying which takes place between Au and W can be claimed as driving force of self-organization. The observed stripes exhibit a characteristic one-dimensional electronic structure with laterally quantized d-bands. Obviously, these are very important for applications, since dimensions of electronic devices have already stepped into the nm-range, where quantum-size phenomena must undoubtedly be considered. Moreover, formation of perfectly uniform molecular clusters of C60 was demonstrated and described in terms of the van der Waals formalism. It is the first experimental observation of two-dimensional fullerene nanoclusters with "magic numbers". Calculations of the cluster potentials using the static approach have revealed characteristic minima in the interaction energy. They are achieved for 4 and 7 molecules per cluster. The obtained "magic numbers" and the corresponding cluster structures are fully consistent with the results of the STM measurements.
Self-assembly of polymeric building blocks is a powerful tool for the design of novel materials and structures that combine different properties and may respond to external stimuli. In the past decades, most studies were focused on the self-assembly of amphiphilic diblock copolymers in solution. The dissolution of these block copolymers in a solvent selective for one block results mostly in the formation of micelles. The micellar structure of diblock copolymers is inherently limited to a homogeneous core surrounded by a corona, which keeps the micelle in solution. Thus, for drug-delivery applications, such structures only offer a single domain (the hydrophobic inner core) for drug entrapment. Whereas multicompartment micelles composed of a water-soluble shell and a segregated hydrophobic core are novel, interesting morphologies for applications in a variety of fields including medicine, pharmacy and biotechnology. The separated incompatible compartments of the hydrophobic core could enable the selective entrapment and release of various hydrophobic drugs while the hydrophilic shell would permit the stabilization of these nanostructures in physiological media. However, so far, the preparation and control of stable multicompartment micellar systems are in the first stages and the number of morphological studies concerning such micelles is rather low. Thus considerably little is known about their exact inner structures. In the present study, we concentrate on four different approaches for the preparation of multicompartment micelles by self-assembly in aqueous media. A similarity of all approaches was that hydrocarbon and fluorocarbon blocks were selected for all employed copolymers since such segments tend to be strongly incompatible, and thus favor the segregation into distinct domains. Our studies have shown that the self-assembly of the utilized copolymers in aqueous solution leads in three cases to the formation of multicompartment micelles. As expected the shape and size of the micelles depend on the molecular architecture and to some extent also on the way of preparation. These novel structured colloids may serve as models as well as mimics for biological structures such as globular proteins, and may open interesting opportunities for nanotechnology applications.
Amphiphilic molecules contain a hydrophilic headgroup and a hydrophobic tail. The headgroup is polar or ionic and likes water, the tail is typically an aliphatic chain that cannot be accommodated in a polar environment. The prevailing molecular asymmetry leads to a spontaneous adsorption of amphiphiles at the air/water or oil/water interfaces. As a result, the surface tension and the surface rheology is changed. Amphiphiles are important tools to deliberately modify the interfacial properties of liquid interfaces and enable new phenomena such as foams which cannot be formed in a pure liquid. In this thesis we investigate the static and dynamic properties of adsorption layers of soluble amphiphiles at the air/water interface, the so called Gibbs monolayers. The classical way for an investigation of these systems is based on a thermodynamic analysis of the equilibrium surface tension as a function of the bulk composition in the framework of Gibbs theory. However, thermodynamics does not provide any structural information and several recent publications challenge even fundamental text book concepts. The experimental investigation faces difficulties imposed by the low surface coverage and the presence of dissolved amphiphiles in the adjacent bulk phase. In this thesis we used a suite of techniques with the sensitivity to detect less than a monolayer of molecules at the air-water interface. Some of these techniques are extremely complex such as infrared visible sum frequency generation (IR-VIS SFG) spectroscopy or second harmonic generation (SHG). Others are traditional techniques, such as ellipsometry employed in new ways and pushed to new limits. Each technique probes selectively different parts of the interface and the combination provides a profound picture of the interfacial architecture. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to the distribution of ions at interfaces. Adsorption layers of ionic amphiphiles serve as model systems allowing to produce a defined surface charge. The charge of the monolayer is compensated by the counterions. As a result of a complex zoo of interactions there will be a defined distribution of ions at the interface, however, its experimental determination is a big scientific challenge. We could demonstrate that a combination of linear and nonlinear techniques gives direct insights in the prevailing ion distribution. Our investigations reveal specific ion effects which cannot be described by classical Poisson-Boltzmann mean field type theories. Adsorption layer and bulk phase are in thermodynamic equilibrium, however, it is important to stress that there is a constant molecular exchange between adsorbed and dissolved species. This exchange process is a key element for the understanding of some of the thermodynamic properties. An excellent way to study Gibbs monolayers is to follow the relaxation from a non-equilibrium to an equilibrium state. Upon compression amphiphiles must leave the adsorption layer and dissolve in the adjacent bulk phase. Upon expansion amphiphiles must adsorb at the interface to restore the equilibrium coverage. Obviously the frequency of the expansion and compression cycles must match the molecular exchange processes. At too low frequencies the equilibrium is maintained at all times. If the frequency is too fast the system behaves as a monolayer of insoluble surfactants. In this thesis we describe an unique variant of an oscillating bubble technique that measures precisely the real and imaginary part of the complex dilational modulus E in a frequency range up to 500 Hz. The extension of about two decades in the time domain in comparison to the conventional method of an oscillating drop is a tremendous achievement. The imaginary part of the complex dilational modulus E is a consequence of a dissipative process which is interpreted as an intrinsic surface dilational viscosity. The IR-VIS SFG spectra of the interfacial water provide a molecular interpretation of the underlying dissipative process.
Electrets are materials capable of storing oriented dipoles or an electric surplus charge for long periods of time. The term "electret" was coined by Oliver Heaviside in analogy to the well-known word "magnet". Initially regarded as a mere scientific curiosity, electrets became increasingly imporant for applications during the second half of the 20th century. The most famous example is the electret condenser microphone, developed in 1962 by Sessler and West. Today, these devices are produced in annual quantities of more than 1 billion, and have become indispensable in modern communications technology. Even though space-charge electrets are widely used in transducer applications, relatively little was known about the microscopic mechanisms of charge storage. It was generally accepted that the surplus charges are stored in some form of physical or chemical traps. However, trap depths of less than 2 eV, obtained via thermally stimulated discharge experiments, conflicted with the observed lifetimes (extrapolations of experimental data yielded more than 100000 years). Using a combination of photostimulated discharge spectroscopy and simultaneous depth-profiling of the space-charge density, the present work shows for the first time that at least part of the space charge in, e.g., polytetrafluoroethylene, polypropylene and polyethylene terephthalate is stored in traps with depths of up to 6 eV, indicating major local structural changes. Based on this information, more efficient charge-storing materials could be developed in the future. The new experimental results could only be obtained after several techniques for characterizing the electrical, electromechanical and electrical properties of electrets had been enhanced with in situ capability. For instance, real-time information on space-charge depth-profiles were obtained by subjecting a polymer film to short laser-induced heat pulses. The high data acquisition speed of this technique also allowed the three-dimensional mapping of polarization and space-charge distributions. A highly active field of research is the development of piezoelectric sensor films from electret polymer foams. These materials store charges on the inner surfaces of the voids after having been subjected to a corona discharge, and exhibit piezoelectric properties far superior to those of traditional ferroelectric polymers. By means of dielectric resonance spectroscopy, polypropylene foams (presently the most widely used ferroelectret) were studied with respect to their thermal and UV stability. Their limited thermal stability renders them unsuitable for applications above 50 °C. Using a solvent-based foaming technique, we found an alternative material based on amorphous Teflon® AF, which exhibits a stable piezoelectric coefficient of 600 pC/N at temperatures up to 120 °C.
We present an application of imprecise probability theory to the quantification of uncertainty in the integrated assessment of climate change. Our work is motivated by the fact that uncertainty about climate change is pervasive, and therefore requires a thorough treatment in the integrated assessment process. Classical probability theory faces some severe difficulties in this respect, since it cannot capture very poor states of information in a satisfactory manner. A more general framework is provided by imprecise probability theory, which offers a similarly firm evidential and behavioural foundation, while at the same time allowing to capture more diverse states of information. An imprecise probability describes the information in terms of lower and upper bounds on probability. For the purpose of our imprecise probability analysis, we construct a diffusion ocean energy balance climate model that parameterises the global mean temperature response to secular trends in the radiative forcing in terms of climate sensitivity and effective vertical ocean heat diffusivity. We compare the model behaviour to the 20th century temperature record in order to derive a likelihood function for these two parameters and the forcing strength of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols. Results show a strong positive correlation between climate sensitivity and ocean heat diffusivity, and between climate sensitivity and absolute strength of the sulphate forcing. We identify two suitable imprecise probability classes for an efficient representation of the uncertainty about the climate model parameters and provide an algorithm to construct a belief function for the prior parameter uncertainty from a set of probability constraints that can be deduced from the literature or observational data. For the purpose of updating the prior with the likelihood function, we establish a methodological framework that allows us to perform the updating procedure efficiently for two different updating rules: Dempster's rule of conditioning and the Generalised Bayes' rule. Dempster's rule yields a posterior belief function in good qualitative agreement with previous studies that tried to constrain climate sensitivity and sulphate aerosol cooling. In contrast, we are not able to produce meaningful imprecise posterior probability bounds from the application of the Generalised Bayes' Rule. We can attribute this result mainly to our choice of representing the prior uncertainty by a belief function. We project the Dempster-updated belief function for the climate model parameters onto estimates of future global mean temperature change under several emissions scenarios for the 21st century, and several long-term stabilisation policies. Within the limitations of our analysis we find that it requires a stringent stabilisation level of around 450 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent concentration to obtain a non-negligible lower probability of limiting the warming to 2 degrees Celsius. We discuss several frameworks of decision-making under ambiguity and show that they can lead to a variety of, possibly imprecise, climate policy recommendations. We find, however, that poor states of information do not necessarily impede a useful policy advice. We conclude that imprecise probabilities constitute indeed a promising candidate for the adequate treatment of uncertainty in the integrated assessment of climate change. We have constructed prior belief functions that allow much weaker assumptions on the prior state of information than a prior probability would require and, nevertheless, can be propagated through the entire assessment process. As a caveat, the updating issue needs further investigation. Belief functions constitute only a sensible choice for the prior uncertainty representation if more restrictive updating rules than the Generalised Bayes'Rule are available.
Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigte sich mit zwei Themengebieten. Es ging zum einen um die mechanischen Eigenschaften von Polyelektrolythohlkapseln und zum anderen um die Adhäsion von Polyelektrolythohlkapseln. Die mechanischen Eigenschaften wurden mit der AFM „colloidal probe” Technik untersucht. Dabei zeigte sich, dass die Kraftdeformationskurven für kleine Deformationen den nach der Schalentheorie vorhergesagten linearen Verlauf haben. Ebenso wurde die quadratische Abhängigkeit der Federkonstanten von der Dicke bestätigt. Für PAH/PSS findet man einen E-Modul von 0.25 GPa. Zusammen mit der Tatsache, dass die Deformationskurven unabhängig von der Geschwindigkeit sind und praktisch keine Hysterese zeigen, sowie der Möglichkeit die Kapseln plastisch zu deformieren, kann man schließen, dass das System in einem glasartigen Zustand vorliegt. <pt>Erwartungsgemäß zeigte der pH einen starken Einfluss auf die PEM. Während in einem pH-Bereich zwischen 2 und 11.5 keine morphologischen Änderungen festgestellt werden konnten, vergrößerte sich der Radius bei pH = 12 um bis zu 50 %. Diese Radienänderung war reversibel und ging einher mit einem sichtbaren Weicherwerden der Kapseln. Eine Abnahme des E-Moduls um mindestens drei Größenordungen wurde durch Kraftdeformationsmessungen bestätigt. Die Kraftdeformationskurven zeigen eine starke Hysterese. Das System befindet sich nun nicht mehr in einem glasartigen Zustand, sondern ist viskos bis gummiartig geworden. Messungen an Kapseln, die mit Glutardialdehyd behandelt wurden, zeigten, dass die Behandlung das pH-abhängige Verhalten verändert. Dies kann darauf zurückgeführt werden, dass das PAH durch den Glutardialdehyd quervernetzt wird. Bei einem hohen Quervernetzungsgrad, zeigen die Kapseln keine Änderung des mechanischen Verhaltens bei pH = 12. Schwach quervernetzte Kapseln werden immer noch signifikant weicher bei pH = 12, jedoch ändert sich der Radius nicht. Außerdem wurden Multilagenkapseln untersucht, deren Stabilität nicht auf elektrostatischen Wechselwirkungen sondern auf Wasserstoffbrückenbindungen beruhte. Diese Kapseln zeigten eine deutlich höhere Steifigkeit mit E-Modulen bis zu 1 GPa. Es wurde gefunden, dass auch dieses System für kleine Deformationen ein lineares Kraft-Deformationsverhalten zeigt, und dass die Federkonstante quadratisch von der Dicke abhängt. Die Kapseln lösen sich praktisch sofort bei pH = 6.5 auf. In der Nähe dieses pHs konnte das Abnehmen der Federkonstanten verfolgt werden. Außerdem wurde das Adhäsionsverhalten von PAH/PSS Kapseln auf mit PEI-beschichtetem Glas untersucht. Die Adhäsionsflächen waren zu einem großen Teil rund und ließen sich quantitativ auswerten. Der Adhäsionsradius nimmt mit dem Kapselradius zu und mit der Dicke ab. Das Verhalten konnte mit zwei Modellen, einem für die große und einem für die kleine Deformation beschrieben werden. Das große Deformationsmodell liefert um eine Größenordung niedrigere Adhäsionsenergien als das kleine Deformationsmodell, welches mit Werten von ‑0.2 mJ/m<sup>2 Werte in einem plausiblen Bereich liefert. Es wurde gefunden, dass bei einem Verhältnis von Dicke zu Deformation von etwa eins "buckling" auftritt. Dieser Punkt markierte zugleich den Übergang von der großen zur kleinen Deformation.
Adhesion of biological cells to their environment is mediated by two-dimensional clusters of specific adhesion molecules which are assembled in the plasma membrane of the cells. Due to the activity of the cells or external influences, these adhesion sites are usually subject to physical forces. In recent years, the influence of such forces on the stability of cellular adhesion clusters was increasingly investigated. In particular, experimental methods that were originally designed for the investigation of single bond rupture under force have been applied to investigate the rupture of adhesion clusters. The transition from single to multiple bonds, however, is not trivial and requires theoretical modelling. Rupture of biological adhesion molecules is a thermally activated, stochastic process. In this work, a stochastic model for the rupture and rebinding dynamics of clusters of parallel adhesion molecules under force is presented. In particular, the influence of (i) a constant force as it may be assumed for cellular adhesion clusters is investigated and (ii) the influence of a linearly increasing force as commonly used in experiments is considered. Special attention is paid to the force-mediated cooperativity of parallel adhesion bonds. Finally, the influence of a finite distance between receptors and ligands on the binding dynamics is investigated. Thereby, the distance can be bridged by polymeric linker molecules which tether the ligands to a substrate.
Stochastic information, to be understood as "information gained by the application of stochastic methods", is proposed as a tool in the assessment of changes in climate. This thesis aims at demonstrating that stochastic information can improve the consideration and reduction of uncertainty in the assessment of changes in climate. The thesis consists of three parts. In part one, an indicator is developed that allows the determination of the proximity to a critical threshold. In part two, the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is extended to a probabilistic TWA. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted within the TWA. The thermohaline circulation (THC) is a circulation system in the North Atlantic, where the circulation may break down in a saddle-node bifurcation under the influence of climate change. Due to uncertainty in ocean models, it is currently very difficult to determine the distance of the THC to the bifurcation point. We propose a new indicator to determine the system's proximity to the bifurcation point by considering the THC as a stochastic system and using the information contained in the fluctuations of the circulation around the mean state. As the system is moved closer to the bifurcation point, the power spectrum of the overturning becomes "redder", i.e. more energy is contained in the low frequencies. Since the spectral changes are a generic property of the saddle-node bifurcation, the method is not limited to the THC, but it could also be applicable to other systems, e.g. transitions in ecosystems. In part two, a probabilistic extension to the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is developed. In the TWA, the aim is to determine the complete set of emission strategies that are compatible with so-called guardrails. Guardrails are limits to impacts of climate change or to climate change itself. Therefore, the TWA determines the "maneuvering space" humanity has, if certain impacts of climate change are to be avoided. Due to uncertainty it is not possible to definitely exclude the impacts of climate change considered, but there will always be a certain probability of violating a guardrail. Therefore the TWA is extended to a probabilistic TWA that is able to consider "probabilistic uncertainty", i.e. uncertainty that can be expressed as a probability distribution or uncertainty that arises through natural variability. As a first application, temperature guardrails are imposed, and the dependence of emission reduction strategies on probability distributions for climate sensitivities is investigated. The analysis suggests that it will be difficult to observe a temperature guardrail of 2°C with high probabilities of actually meeting the target. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted. A simple hydrological model is presented, as well as a downscaling scheme that allows the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal natural variability of temperature and precipitation. These are used to determine a probabilistic climate impact response function (CIRF), a function that allows the assessment of changes in probability of certain flood events under conditions of a changed climate. The assessment of changes in flooding probability is conducted in 83 major river basins. Not all floods can be considered: Events that either happen very fast, or affect only a very small area can not be considered, but large-scale flooding due to strong longer-lasting precipitation events can be considered. Finally, the probabilistic CIRFs obtained are used to determine emission corridors, where the guardrail is a limit to the fraction of world population that is affected by a predefined shift in probability of the 50-year flood event. This latter analysis has two main results. The uncertainty about regional changes in climate is still very high, and even small amounts of further climate change may lead to large changes in flooding probability in some river systems.
Origin and symmetry of the observed global magnetic fields in galaxies are not fully understood. We intend to clarify the question of the magnetic field origin and investigate the global action of the magneto-rotational instability (MRI) in galactic disks with the help of 3D global magneto-hydrodynamical (MHD) simulations. The calculations were done with the time-stepping ZEUS 3D code using massive parallelization. The alpha-Omega dynamo is known to be one of the most efficient mechanisms to reproduce the observed global galactic fields. The presence of strong turbulence is a pre-requisite for the alpha-Omega dynamo generation of the regular magnetic fields. The observed magnitude and spatial distribution of turbulence in galaxies present unsolved problems to theoreticians. The MRI is known to be a fast and powerful mechanism to generate MHD turbulence and to amplify magnetic fields. We find that the critical wavelength increases with the increasing of magnetic fields during the simulation, transporting the energy from critical to larger scales. The final structure, if not disrupted by supernovae explosions, is the structure of `thin layers' of thickness of about 100 pcs. An important outcome of all simulations is the magnitude of the horizontal components of the Reynolds and Maxwell stresses. The result is that the MRI-driven turbulence is magnetic-dominated: its magnetic energy exceeds the kinetic energy by a factor of 4. The Reynolds stress is small and less than 1% of the Maxwell stress. The angular momentum transport is thus completely dominated by the magnetic field fluctuations. The volume-averaged pitch angle is always negative with a magnitude of about -30. The non-saturated MRI regime is lasting sufficiently long to fill the time between the galactic encounters, independently of strength and geometry of the initial field. Therefore, we may claim the observed pitch angles can be due to MRI action in the gaseous galactic disks. The MRI is also shown to be a very fast instability with e-folding time proportional to the time of one rotation. Steep rotation curves imply a stronger growth for the magnetic energy due to MRI. The global e-folding time is from 44 Myr to 100 Myr depending on the rotation profile. Therefore, MRI can explain the existence of rather large magnetic field in very young galaxies. We also have reproduced the observed rms values of velocities in the interstellar turbulence as it was observed in NGC 1058. We have shown with the simulations that the averaged velocity dispersion of about 5 km/s is a typical number for the MRI-driven turbulence in galaxies, which agrees with observations. The dispersion increases outside of the disk plane, whereas supernovae-driven turbulence is found to be concentrated within the disk. In our simulations the velocity dispersion increases a few times with the heights. An additional support to the dynamo alpha-effect in the galaxies is the ability of the MRI to produce a mix of quadrupole and dipole symmetries from the purely vertical seed fields, so it also solves the seed-fields problem of the galactic dynamo theory. The interaction of magneto-rotational instability and random supernovae explosions remains an open question. It would be desirable to run the simulation with the supernovae explosions included. They would disrupt the calm ring structure produced by global MRI, may be even to the level when we can no longer blame MRI to be responsible for the turbulence.