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Hydraulic-driven fractures play a key role in subsurface energy technologies across several scales. By injecting fluid at high hydraulic pressure into rock with intrinsic low permeability, in-situ stress field and fracture development pattern can be characterised as well as rock permeability can be enhanced. Hydraulic fracturing is a commercial standard procedure for enhanced oil and gas production of rock reservoirs with low permeability in petroleum industry. However, in EGS utilization, a major geological concern is the unsolicited generation of earthquakes due to fault reactivation, referred to as induced seismicity, with a magnitude large enough to be felt on the surface or to damage facilities and buildings. Furthermore, reliable interpretation of hydraulic fracturing tests for stress measurement is a great challenge for the energy technologies. Therefore, in this cumulative doctoral thesis the following research questions are investigated. (1): How do hydraulic fractures grow in hard rock at various scales?; (2): Which parameters control hydraulic fracturing and hydro-mechanical coupling?; and (3): How can hydraulic fracturing in hard rock be modelled?
In the laboratory scale study, several laboratory hydraulic fracturing experiments are investigated numerically using Irazu2D that were performed on intact cubic Pocheon granite samples from South Korea applying different injection protocols. The goal of the laboratory experiments is to test the concept of cyclic soft stimulation which may enable sustainable permeability enhancement (Publication 1).
In the borehole scale study, hydraulic fracturing tests are reported that were performed in boreholes located in central Hungary to determine the in-situ stress for a geological site investigation. At depth of about 540 m, the recorded pressure versus time curves in mica schist with low dip angle foliation show atypical evolution. In order to provide explanation for this observation, a series of discrete element computations using Particle Flow Code 2D are performed (Publication 2).
In the reservoir scale study, the hydro-mechanical behaviour of fractured crystalline rock due to one of the five hydraulic stimulations at the Pohang Enhanced Geothermal site in South Korea is studied. Fluid pressure perturbation at faults of several hundred-meter lengths during hydraulic stimulation is simulated using FracMan (Publication 3).
The doctoral research shows that the resulting hydraulic fracturing geometry will depend “locally”, i.e. at the length scale of representative elementary volume (REV) and below that (sub-REV), on the geometry and strength of natural fractures, and “globally”, i.e. at super-REV domain volume, on far-field stresses. Regarding hydro-mechanical coupling, it is suggested to define separate coupling relationship for intact rock mass and natural fractures. Furthermore, the relative importance of parameters affecting the magnitude of formation breakdown pressure, a parameter characterising hydro-mechanical coupling, is defined. It can be also concluded that there is a clear gap between the capacity of the simulation software and the complexity of the studied problems. Therefore, the computational time of the simulation of complex hydraulic fracture geometries must be reduced while maintaining high fidelity simulation results. This can be achieved either by extending the computational resources via parallelization techniques or using time scaling techniques. The ongoing development of used numerical models focuses on tackling these methodological challenges.
In my doctoral thesis, I examine continuous gravity measurements for monitoring of the geothermal site at Þeistareykir in North Iceland. With the help of high-precision superconducting gravity meters (iGravs), I investigate underground mass changes that are caused by operation of the geothermal power plant (i.e. by extraction of hot water and reinjection of cold water). The overall goal of this research project is to make a statement about the sustainable use of the geothermal reservoir, from which also the Icelandic energy supplier and power plant operator Landsvirkjun should benefit.
As a first step, for investigating the performance and measurement stability of the gravity meters, in summer 2017, I performed comparative measurements at the gravimetric observatory J9 in Strasbourg. From the three-month gravity time series, I examined calibration, noise and drift behaviour of the iGravs in comparison to stable long-term time series of the observatory superconducting gravity meters. After preparatory work in Iceland (setup of gravity stations, additional measuring equipment and infrastructure, discussions with Landsvirkjun and meetings with the Icelandic partner institute ISOR), gravity monitoring at Þeistareykir was started in December 2017. With the help of the iGrav records of the initial 18 months after start of measurements, I carried out the same investigations (on calibration, noise and drift behaviour) as in J9 to understand how the transport of the superconducting gravity meters to Iceland may influence instrumental parameters.
In the further course of this work, I focus on modelling and reduction of local gravity contributions at Þeistareykir. These comprise additional mass changes due to rain, snowfall and vertical surface displacements that superimpose onto the geothermal signal of the gravity measurements. For this purpose, I used data sets from additional monitoring sensors that are installed at each gravity station and adapted scripts for hydro-gravitational modelling. The third part of my thesis targets geothermal signals in the gravity measurements.
Together with my PhD colleague Nolwenn Portier from France, I carried out additional gravity measurements with a Scintrex CG5 gravity meter at 26 measuring points within the geothermal field in the summers of 2017, 2018 and 2019. These annual time-lapse gravity measurements are intended to increase the spatial coverage of gravity data from the three continuous monitoring stations to the entire geothermal field. The combination of CG5 and iGrav observations, as well as annual reference measurements with an FG5 absolute gravity meter represent the hybrid gravimetric monitoring method for Þeistareykir. Comparison of the gravimetric data to local borehole measurements (of groundwater levels, geothermal extraction and injection rates) is used to relate the observed gravity changes to the actually extracted (and reinjected) geothermal fluids. An approach to explain the observed gravity signals by means of forward modelling of the geothermal production rate is presented at the end of the third (hybrid gravimetric) study. Further modelling with the help of the processed gravity data is planned by Landsvirkjun. In addition, the experience from time-lapse and continuous gravity monitoring will be used for future gravity measurements at the Krafla geothermal field 22 km south-east of Þeistareykir.
The Andes are a ~7000 km long N-S trending mountain range developed along the South American western continental margin. Driven by the subduction of the oceanic Nazca plate beneath the continental South American plate, the formation of the northern and central parts of the orogen is a type case for a non-collisional orogeny. In the southern Central Andes (SCA, 29°S-39°S), the oceanic plate changes the subduction angle between 33°S and 35°S from almost horizontal (< 5° dip) in the north to a steeper angle (~30° dip) in the south. This sector of the Andes also displays remarkable along- and across- strike variations of the tectonic deformation patterns. These include a systematic decrease of topographic elevation, of crustal shortening and foreland and orogenic width, as well as an alternation of the foreland deformation style between thick-skinned and thin-skinned recorded along- and across the strike of the subduction zone. Moreover, the SCA are a very seismically active region. The continental plate is characterized by a relatively shallow seismicity (< 30 km depth) which is mainly focussed at the transition from the orogen to the lowland areas of the foreland and the forearc; in contrast, deeper seismicity occurs below the interiors of the northern foreland. Additionally, frequent seismicity is also recorded in the shallow parts of the oceanic plate and in a sector of the flat slab segment between 31°S and 33°S. The observed spatial heterogeneity in tectonic and seismic deformation in the SCA has been attributed to multiple causes, including variations in sediment thickness, the presence of inherited structures and changes in the subduction angle of the oceanic slab. However, there is no study that inquired the relationship between the long-term rheological configuration of the SCA and the spatial deformation patterns. Moreover, the effects of the density and thickness configuration of the continental plate and of variations in the slab dip angle in the rheological state of the lithosphere have been not thoroughly investigated yet. Since rheology depends on composition, pressure and temperature, a detailed characterization of the compositional, structural and thermal fields of the lithosphere is needed. Therefore, by using multiple geophysical approaches and data sources, I constructed the following 3D models of the SCA lithosphere: (i) a seismically-constrained structural and density model that was tested against the gravity field; (ii) a thermal model integrating the conversion of mantle shear-wave velocities to temperature with steady-state conductive calculations in the uppermost lithosphere (< 50 km depth), validated by temperature and heat-flow measurements; and (iii) a rheological model of the long-term lithospheric strength using as input the previously-generated models.
The results of this dissertation indicate that the present-day thermal and rheological fields of the SCA are controlled by different mechanisms at different depths. At shallow depths (< 50 km), the thermomechanical field is modulated by the heterogeneous composition of the continental lithosphere. The overprint of the oceanic slab is detectable where the oceanic plate is shallow (< 85 km depth) and the radiogenic crust is thin, resulting in overall lower temperatures and higher strength compared to regions where the slab is steep and the radiogenic crust is thick. At depths > 50 km, largest temperatures variations occur where the descending slab is detected, which implies that the deep thermal field is mainly affected by the slab dip geometry.
The outcomes of this thesis suggests that long-term thermomechanical state of the lithosphere influences the spatial distribution of seismic deformation. Most of the seismicity within the continental plate occurs above the modelled transition from brittle to ductile conditions. Additionally, there is a spatial correlation between the location of these events and the transition from the mechanically strong domains of the forearc and foreland to the weak domain of the orogen. In contrast, seismicity within the oceanic plate is also detected where long-term ductile conditions are expected. I therefore analysed the possible influence of additional mechanisms triggering these earthquakes, including the compaction of sediments in the subduction interface and dehydration reactions in the slab. To that aim, I carried out a qualitative analysis of the state of hydration in the mantle using the ratio between compressional- and shear-wave velocity (vp/vs ratio) from a previous seismic tomography. The results from this analysis indicate that the majority of the seismicity spatially correlates with hydrated areas of the slab and overlying continental mantle, with the exception of the cluster within the flat slab segment. In this region, earthquakes are likely triggered by flexural processes where the slab changes from a flat to a steep subduction angle.
First-order variations in the observed tectonic patterns also seem to be influenced by the thermomechanical configuration of the lithosphere. The mechanically strong domains of the forearc and foreland, due to their resistance to deformation, display smaller amounts of shortening than the relatively weak orogenic domain. In addition, the structural and thermomechanical characteristics modelled in this dissertation confirm previous analyses from geodynamic models pointing to the control of the observed heterogeneities in the orogen and foreland deformation style. These characteristics include the lithospheric and crustal thickness, the presence of weak sediments and the variations in gravitational potential energy.
Specific conditions occur in the cold and strong northern foreland, which is characterized by active seismicity and thick-skinned structures, although the modelled crustal strength exceeds the typical values of externally-applied tectonic stresses. The additional mechanisms that could explain the strain localization in a region that should resist deformation are: (i) increased tectonic forces coming from the steepening of the slab and (ii) enhanced weakening along inherited structures from pre-Andean deformation events. Finally, the thermomechanical conditions of this sector of the foreland could be a key factor influencing the preservation of the flat subduction angle at these latitudes of the SCA.
The NAC transcription factor (TF) JUNGBRUNNEN1 (JUB1) is an important negative regulator of plant senescence, as well as of gibberellic acid (GA) and brassinosteroid (BR) biosynthesis in Arabidopsis thaliana. Overexpression of JUB1 promotes longevity and enhances tolerance to drought and other abiotic stresses. A similar role of JUB1 has been observed in other plant species, including tomato and banana. Our data show that JUB1 overexpressors (JUB1-OXs) accumulate higher levels of proline than WT plants under control conditions, during the onset of drought stress, and thereafter. We identified that overexpression of JUB1 induces key proline biosynthesis and suppresses key proline degradation genes. Furthermore, bZIP63, the transcription factor involved in proline metabolism, was identified as a novel downstream target of JUB1 by Yeast One-Hybrid (Y1H) analysis and Chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP). However, based on Electrophoretic Mobility Shift Assay (EMSA), direct binding of JUB1 to bZIP63 could not be confirmed. Our data indicate that JUB1-OX plants exhibit reduced stomatal conductance under control conditions. However, selective overexpression of JUB1 in guard cells did not improve drought stress tolerance in Arabidopsis. Moreover, the drought-tolerant phenotype of JUB1 overexpressors does not solely depend on the transcriptional control of the DREB2A gene. Thus, our data suggest that JUB1 confers tolerance to drought stress by regulating multiple components. Until today, none of the previous studies on JUB1´s regulatory network focused on identifying protein-protein interactions. We, therefore, performed a yeast two-hybrid screen (Y2H) which identified several protein interactors of JUB1, two of which are the calcium-binding proteins CaM1 and CaM4. Both proteins interact with JUB1 in the nucleus of Arabidopsis protoplasts. Moreover, JUB1 is expressed with CaM1 and CaM4 under the same conditions. Since CaM1.1 and CaM4.1 encode proteins with identical amino acid sequences, all further experiments were performed with constructs involving the CaM4 coding sequence. Our data show that JUB1 harbors multiple CaM-binding sites, which are localized in both the N-terminal and C-terminal regions of the protein. One of the CaM-binding sites, localized in the DNA-binding domain of JUB1, was identified as a functional CaM-binding site since its mutation strongly reduced the binding of CaM4 to JUB1. Furthermore, JUB1 transactivates expression of the stress-related gene DREB2A in mesophyll cells; this effect is significantly reduced when the calcium-binding protein CaM4 is expressed as well. Overexpression of both genes in Arabidopsis results in early senescence observed through lower chlorophyll content and an enhanced expression of senescence-associated genes (SAGs) when compared with single JUB1 overexpressors. Our data also show that JUB1 and CaM4 proteins interact in senescent leaves, which have increased Ca2+ levels when compared to young leaves. Collectively, our data indicate that JUB1 activity towards its downstream targets is fine-tuned by calcium-binding proteins during leaf senescence.
In the frame of a world fighting a dramatic global warming caused by human-related activities, research towards the development of renewable energies plays a crucial role. Solar energy is one of the most important clean energy sources and its role in the satisfaction of the global energy demand is set to increase. In this context, a particular class of materials captured the attention of the scientific community for its attractive properties: halide perovskites. Devices with perovskite as light-absorber saw an impressive development within the last decade, reaching nowadays efficiencies comparable to mature photovoltaic technologies like silicon solar cells. Yet, there are still several roadblocks to overcome before a wide-spread commercialization of this kind of devices is enabled. One of the critical points lies at the interfaces: perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are made of several layers with different chemical and physical features. In order for the device to function properly, these properties have to be well-matched.
This dissertation deals with some of the challenges related to interfaces in PSCs, with a focus on the interface between the perovskite material itself and the subsequent charge transport layer. In particular, molecular assemblies with specific properties are deposited on the perovskite surface to functionalize it. The functionalization results in energy level alignment adjustment, interfacial losses reduction, and stability improvement.
First, a strategy to tune the perovskite’s energy levels is introduced: self-assembled monolayers of dipolar molecules are used to functionalize the surface, obtaining simultaneously a shift in the vacuum level position and a saturation of the dangling bonds at the surface. A shift in the vacuum level corresponds to an equal change in work function, ionization energy, and electron affinity. The direction of the shift depends on the direction of the collective interfacial dipole. The magnitude of the shift can be tailored by controlling the deposition parameters, such as the concentration of the solution used for the deposition. The shift for different molecules is characterized by several non-invasive techniques, including in particular Kelvin probe. Overall, it is shown that it is possible to shift the perovskite energy levels in both directions by several hundreds of meV. Moreover, interesting insights on the molecules deposition dynamics are revealed.
Secondly, the application of this strategy in perovskite solar cells is explored. Devices with different perovskite compositions (“triple cation perovskite” and MAPbBr3) are prepared. The two resulting model systems present different energetic offsets at the perovskite/hole-transport layer interface. Upon tailored perovskite surface functionalization, the devices show a stabilized open circuit voltage (Voc) enhancement of approximately 60 meV on average for devices with MAPbBr3, while the impact is limited on triple-cation solar cells. This suggests that the proposed energy level tuning method is valid, but its effectiveness depends on factors such as the significance of the energetic offset compared to the other losses in the devices.
Finally, the above presented method is further developed by incorporating the ability to interact with the perovskite surface directly into a novel hole-transport material (HTM), named PFI. The HTM can anchor to the perovskite halide ions via halogen bonding (XB). Its behaviour is compared to that of another HTM (PF) with same chemical structure and properties, except for the ability of forming XB. The interaction of perovskite with PFI and PF is characterized through UV-Vis, atomic force microscopy and Kelvin probe measurements combined with simulations. Compared to PF, PFI exhibits enhanced resilience against solvent exposure and improved energy level alignment with the perovskite layer. As a consequence, devices comprising PFI show enhanced Voc and operational stability during maximum-power-point tracking, in addition to hysteresis reduction. XB promotes the formation of a high-quality interface by anchoring to the halide ions and forming a stable and ordered interfacial layer, showing to be a particularly interesting candidate for the development of tailored charge transport materials in PSCs.
Overall, the results exposed in this dissertation introduce and discuss a versatile tool to functionalize the perovskite surface and tune its energy levels. The application of this method in devices is explored and insights on its challenges and advantages are given. Within this frame, the results shed light on XB as ideal interaction for enhancing stability and efficiency in perovskite-based devices.
The spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria poses a globally increasing threat to public health care. The excessive use of antibiotics in animal husbandry can develop resistances in the stables. Transmission through direct contact with animals and contamination of food has already been proven. The excrements of the animals combined with a binding material enable a further potential path of spread into the environment, if they are used as organic manure in agricultural landscapes. As most of the airborne bacteria are attached to particulate matter, the focus of the work will be the atmospheric dispersal via the dust fraction.
Field measurements on arable lands in Brandenburg, Germany and wind erosion studies in a wind tunnel were conducted to investigate the risk of a potential atmospheric dust-associated spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria from poultry manure fertilized agricultural soils. The focus was to (i) characterize the conditions for aerosolization and (ii) qualify and quantify dust emissions during agricultural operations and wind erosion.
PM10 (PM, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 µm) emission factors and bacterial fluxes for poultry manure application and incorporation have not been previously reported before. The contribution to dust emissions depends on the water content of the manure, which is affected by the manure pretreatment (fresh, composted, stored, dried), as well as by the intensity of manure spreading from the manure spreader. During poultry manure application, PM10 emission ranged between 0.05 kg ha-1 and 8.37 kg ha-1. For comparison, the subsequent land preparation contributes to 0.35 – 1.15 kg ha-1 of PM10 emissions. Manure particles were still part of dust emissions but they were accounted to be less than 1% of total PM10 emissions due to the dilution of poultry manure in the soil after manure incorporation. Bacterial emissions of fecal origin were more relevant during manure application than during the subsequent manure incorporation, although PM10 emissions of manure incorporation were larger than PM10 emissions of manure application for the non-dried manure variants.
Wind erosion leads to preferred detachment of manure particles from sandy soils, when poultry manure has been recently incorporated. Sorting effects were determined between the low-density organic particles of manure origin and the soil particles of mineral origin close above the threshold of 7 m s-1. In dependence to the wind speed, potential erosion rates between 101 and 854 kg ha-1 were identified, if 6 t ha-1 of poultry manure were applied. Microbial investigation showed that manure bacteria got detached more easily from the soil surface during wind erosion, due to their attachment on manure particles.
Although antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ESBL-producing E. coli) were still found in the poultry barns, no further contamination could be detected with them in the manure, fertilized soils or in the dust generated by manure application, land preparation or wind erosion. Parallel studies of this project showed that storage of poultry manure for a few days (36 – 72 h) is sufficient to inactivate ESBL-producing E. coli. Further antibiotic-resistant bacteria, i.e. MRSA and VRE, were only found sporadically in the stables and not at all in the dust. Therefore, based on the results of this work, the risk of a potential infection by dust-associated antibiotic-resistant bacteria can be considered as low.
Over the last years there is an increasing awareness that historical land cover changes and associated land use legacies may be important drivers for present-day species richness and biodiversity due to time-delayed extinctions or colonizations in response to historical environmental changes. Historically altered habitat patches may therefore exhibit an extinction debt or colonization credit and can be expected to lose or gain species in the future. However, extinction debts and colonization credits are difficult to detect and their actual magnitudes or payments have rarely been quantified because species richness patterns and dynamics are also shaped by recent environmental conditions and recent environmental changes.
In this thesis we aimed to determine patterns of herb-layer species richness and recent species richness dynamics of forest herb layer plants and link those patterns and dynamics to historical land cover changes and associated land use legacies. The study was conducted in the Prignitz, NE-Germany, where the forest distribution remained stable for the last ca. 100 years but where a) the deciduous forest area had declined by more than 90 per cent (leaving only remnants of "ancient forests"), b) small new forests had been established on former agricultural land ("post-agricultural forests"). Here, we analyzed the relative importance of land use history and associated historical land cover changes for herb layer species richness compared to recent environmental factors and determined magnitudes of extinction debt and colonization credit and their payment in ancient and post-agricultural forests, respectively.
We showed that present-day species richness patterns were still shaped by historical land cover changes that ranged back to more than a century. Although recent environmental conditions were largely comparable we found significantly more forest specialists, species with short-distance dispersal capabilities and clonals in ancient forests than in post-agricultural forests. Those species richness differences were largely contingent to a colonization credit in post-agricultural forests that ranged up to 9 species (average 4.7), while the extinction debt in ancient forests had almost completely been paid. Environmental legacies from historical agricultural land use played a minor role for species richness differences. Instead, patch connectivity was most important. Species richness in ancient forests was still dependent on historical connectivity, indicating a last glimpse of an extinction debt, and the colonization credit was highest in isolated post-agricultural forests. In post-agricultural forests that were better connected or directly adjacent to ancient forest patches the colonization credit was way smaller and we were able to verify a gradual payment of the colonization credit from 2.7 species to 1.5 species over the last six decades.
This paper introduces a novel measure to assess similarity between event hydrographs. It is based on Cross Recurrence Plots and Recurrence Quantification Analysis which have recently gained attention in a range of disciplines when dealing with complex systems. The method attempts to quantify the event runoff dynamics and is based on the time delay embedded phase space representation of discharge hydrographs. A phase space trajectory is reconstructed from the event hydrograph, and pairs of hydrographs are compared to each other based on the distance of their phase space trajectories. Time delay embedding allows considering the multi-dimensional relationships between different points in time within the event. Hence, the temporal succession of discharge values is taken into account, such as the impact of the initial conditions on the runoff event. We provide an introduction to Cross Recurrence Plots and discuss their parameterization. An application example based on flood time series demonstrates how the method can be used to measure the similarity or dissimilarity of events, and how it can be used to detect events with rare runoff dynamics. It is argued that this methods provides a more comprehensive approach to quantify hydrograph similarity compared to conventional hydrological signatures.
Thermoresponsive Zellkultursubstrate für zeitlich-räumlich gesteuertes Auswachsen neuronaler Zellen
(2019)
Ein wichtiges Ziel der Neurowissenschaften ist das Verständnis der komplexen und zugleich faszinierenden, hochgeordneten Vernetzung der Neurone im Gehirn, welche neuronalen Prozessen, wie zum Beispiel dem Wahrnehmen oder Lernen wie auch Neuropathologien zu Grunde liegt. Für verbesserte neuronale Zellkulturmodelle zur detaillierten Untersuchung dieser Prozesse ist daher die Rekonstruktion von geordneten neuronalen Verbindungen dringend erforderlich. Mit Oberflächenstrukturen aus zellattraktiven und zellabweisenden Beschichtungen können neuronale Zellen und ihre Neuriten in vitro strukturiert werden. Zur Kontrolle der neuronalen Verbindungsrichtung muss das Auswachsen der Axone zu benachbarten Zellen dynamisch gesteuert werden, zum Beispiel über eine veränderliche Zugänglichkeit der Oberfläche.
In dieser Arbeit wurde untersucht, ob mit thermoresponsiven Polymeren (TRP) beschichtete Zellkultursubstrate für eine dynamische Kontrolle des Auswachsens neuronaler Zellen geeignet sind. TRP können über die Temperatur von einem zellabweisenden in einen zellattraktiven Zustand geschaltet werden, womit die Zugänglichkeit der Oberfläche für Zellen dynamisch gesteuert werden kann. Die TRP-Beschichtung wurde mikrostrukturiert, um einzelne oder wenige neuronale Zellen zunächst auf der Oberfläche anzuordnen und das Auswachsen der Zellen und Neuriten über definierte TRP-Bereiche in Abhängigkeit der Temperatur zeitlich und räumlich zu kontrollieren. Das Protokoll wurde mit der neuronalen Zelllinie SH-SY5Y etabliert und auf humane induzierte Neurone übertragen. Die Anordnung der Zellen konnte bei Kultivierung im zellabweisenden Zustand des TRPs für bis zu 7 Tage aufrecht erhalten werden. Durch Schalten des TRPs in den zellattraktiven Zustand konnte das Auswachsen der Neuriten und Zellen zeitlich und räumlich induziert werden. Immunozytochemische Färbungen und Patch-Clamp-Ableitungen der Neurone demonstrierten die einfache Anwendbarkeit und Zellkompatibilität der TRP-Substrate.
Eine präzisere räumliche Kontrolle des Auswachsens der Zellen sollte durch lokales Schalten der TRP-Beschichtung erreicht werden. Dafür wurden Mikroheizchips mit Mikroelektroden zur lokalen Jouleschen Erwärmung der Substratoberfläche entwickelt. Zur Evaluierung der generierten Temperaturprofile wurde eine Temperaturmessmethode entwickelt und die erhobenen Messwerte mit numerisch simulierten Werten abgeglichen. Die Temperaturmessmethode basiert auf einfach zu applizierenden Sol-Gel-Schichten, die den temperatursensitiven Fluoreszenzfarbstoff Rhodamin B enthalten. Sie ermöglicht oberflächennahe Temperaturmessungen in trockener und wässriger Umgebung mit hoher Orts- und Temperaturauflösung. Numerische Simulationen der Temperaturprofile korrelierten gut mit den experimentellen Daten. Auf dieser Basis konnten Geometrie und Material der Mikroelektroden hinsichtlich einer lokal stark begrenzten Temperierung optimiert werden. Ferner wurden für die Kultvierung der Zellen auf den Mikroheizchips eine Zellkulturkammer und Kontaktboard für die elektrische Kontaktierung der Mikroelektroden geschaffen.
Die vorgestellten Ergebnisse demonstrieren erstmalig das enorme Potential thermoresponsiver Zellkultursubstrate für die zeitlich und räumlich gesteuerte Formation geordneter neuronaler Verbindungen in vitro. Zukünftig könnte dies detaillierte Studien zur neuronalen Informationsverarbeitung oder zu Neuropathologien an relevanten, humanen Zellmodellen ermöglichen.
Today, more than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas. With a high density of population and assets, urban areas are not only the economic, cultural and social hubs of every society, they are also highly susceptible to natural disasters. As a consequence of rising sea levels and an expected increase in extreme weather events caused by a changing climate in combination with growing cities, flooding is an increasing threat to many urban agglomerations around the globe.
To mitigate the destructive consequences of flooding, appropriate risk management and adaptation strategies are required. So far, flood risk management in urban areas is almost exclusively focused on managing river and coastal flooding. Often overlooked is the risk from small-scale rainfall-triggered flooding, where the rainfall intensity of rainstorms exceeds the capacity of urban drainage systems, leading to immediate flooding. Referred to as pluvial flooding, this flood type exclusive to urban areas has caused severe losses in cities around the world. Without further intervention, losses from pluvial flooding are expected to increase in many urban areas due to an increase of impervious surfaces compounded with an aging drainage infrastructure and a projected increase in heavy precipitation events. While this requires the integration of pluvial flood risk into risk management plans, so far little is known about the adverse consequences of pluvial flooding due to a lack of both detailed data sets and studies on pluvial flood impacts. As a consequence, methods for reliably estimating pluvial flood losses, needed for pluvial flood risk assessment, are still missing.
Therefore, this thesis investigates how pluvial flood losses to private households can be reliably estimated, based on an improved understanding of the drivers of pluvial flood loss. For this purpose, detailed data from pluvial flood-affected households was collected through structured telephone- and web-surveys following pluvial flood events in Germany and the Netherlands.
Pluvial flood losses to households are the result of complex interactions between impact characteristics such as the water depth and a household’s resistance as determined by its risk awareness, preparedness, emergency response, building properties and other influencing factors. Both exploratory analysis and machine-learning approaches were used to analyze differences in resistance and impacts between households and their effects on the resulting losses. The comparison of case studies showed that the awareness around pluvial flooding among private households is quite low. Low awareness not only challenges the effective dissemination of early warnings, but was also found to influence the implementation of private precautionary measures. The latter were predominately implemented by households with previous experience of pluvial flooding. Even cases where previous flood events affected a different part of the same city did not lead to an increase in preparedness of the surveyed households, highlighting the need to account for small-scale variability in both impact and resistance parameters when assessing pluvial flood risk.
While it was concluded that the combination of low awareness, ineffective early warning and the fact that only a minority of buildings were adapted to pluvial flooding impaired the coping capacities of private households, the often low water levels still enabled households to mitigate or even prevent losses through a timely and effective emergency response.
These findings were confirmed by the detection of loss-influencing variables, showing that cases in which households were able to prevent any loss to the building structure are predominately explained by resistance variables such as the household’s risk awareness, while the degree of loss is mainly explained by impact variables.
Based on the important loss-influencing variables detected, different flood loss models were developed. Similar to flood loss models for river floods, the empirical data from the preceding data collection was used to train flood loss models describing the relationship between impact and resistance parameters and the resulting loss to building structures. Different approaches were adapted from river flood loss models using both models with the water depth as only predictor for building structure loss and models incorporating additional variables from the preceding variable detection routine.
The high predictive errors of all compared models showed that point predictions are not suitable for estimating losses on the building level, as they severely impair the reliability of the estimates. For that reason, a new probabilistic framework based on Bayesian inference was introduced that is able to provide predictive distributions instead of single loss estimates. These distributions not only give a range of probable losses, they also provide information on how likely a specific loss value is, representing the uncertainty in the loss estimate.
Using probabilistic loss models, it was found that the certainty and reliability of a loss estimate on the building level is not only determined by the use of additional predictors as shown in previous studies, but also by the choice of response distribution defining the shape of the predictive distribution. Here, a mix between a beta and a Bernoulli distribution to account for households that are able to prevent losses to their building’s structure was found to provide significantly more certain and reliable estimates than previous approaches using Gaussian or non-parametric response distributions.
The successful model transfer and post-event application to estimate building structure loss in Houston, TX, caused by pluvial flooding during Hurricane Harvey confirmed previous findings, and demonstrated the potential of the newly developed multi-variable beta model for future risk assessments. The highly detailed input data set constructed from openly available data sources containing over 304,000 affected buildings in Harris County further showed the potential of data-driven, building-level loss models for pluvial flood risk assessment.
In conclusion, pluvial flood losses to private households are the result of complex interactions between impact and resistance variables, which should be represented in loss models. The local occurrence of pluvial floods requires loss estimates on high spatial resolutions, i.e. on the building level, where losses are variable and uncertainties are high.
Therefore, probabilistic loss estimates describing the uncertainty of the estimate should be used instead of point predictions. While the performance of probabilistic models on the building level are mainly driven by the choice of response distribution, multi-variable models are recommended for two reasons:
First, additional resistance variables improve the detection of cases in which households were able to prevent structural losses.
Second, the added variability of additional predictors provides a better representation of the uncertainties when loss estimates from multiple buildings are aggregated.
This leads to the conclusion that data-driven probabilistic loss models on the building level allow for a reliable loss estimation at an unprecedented level of detail, with a consistent quantification of uncertainties on all aggregation levels. This makes the presented approach suitable for a wide range of applications, from decision support in spatial planning to impact- based early warning systems.