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The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second-largest mass of ice on Earth. Being almost 2000 km long, more than 700 km wide, and more than 3 km thick at the summit, it holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 7m if melted completely. Despite its massive size, it is particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change: temperatures over the Greenland Ice Sheet have increased by more than 2.7◦C in the past 30 years, twice as much as the global mean temperature. Consequently, the ice sheet has been significantly losing mass since the 1980s and the rate of loss has increased sixfold since then. Moreover, it is one of the potential tipping elements of the Earth System, which might undergo irreversible change once a warming threshold is exceeded. This thesis aims at extending the understanding of the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming by analyzing processes and feedbacks relevant to its centennial to multi-millennial stability using ice sheet modeling.
One of these feedbacks, the melt-elevation-feedback is driven by the temperature rise with decreasing altitudes: As the ice sheet melts, its thickness and surface elevation decrease, exposing the ice surface to warmer air and thus increasing the melt rates even further. The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) can partly mitigate this melt-elevation feedback as the bedrock lifts in response to an ice load decrease, forming the negative GIA feedback. In my thesis, I show that the interaction between these two competing feedbacks can lead to qualitatively different dynamical responses of the Greenland Ice Sheet to warming – from permanent loss to incomplete recovery, depending on the feedback parameters. My research shows that the interaction of those feedbacks can initiate self-sustained oscillations of the ice volume while the climate forcing remains constant.
Furthermore, the increased surface melt changes the optical properties of the snow or ice surface, e.g. by lowering their albedo, which in turn enhances melt rates – a process known as the melt-albedo feedback. Process-based ice sheet models often neglect this melt-albedo feedback. To close this gap, I implemented a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model, a computationally efficient approach that can capture the first-order effects of the melt-albedo feedback, into the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Using the coupled model, I show in warming experiments that the melt-albedo feedback almost doubles the ice loss until the year 2300 under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP2.6, compared to simulations where the melt-albedo feedback is neglected,
and adds up to 58% additional ice loss under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Moreover, I find that the melt-albedo feedback dominates the ice loss until 2300, compared to the melt-elevation feedback.
Another process that could influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the warming induced softening of the ice and the resulting increase in flow. In my thesis, I show with PISM how the uncertainty in Glen’s flow law impacts the simulated response to warming. In a flow line setup at fixed climatic mass balance, the uncertainty in flow parameters leads to a range of ice loss comparable to the range caused by different warming levels.
While I focus on fundamental processes, feedbacks, and their interactions in the first three projects of my thesis, I also explore the impact of specific climate scenarios on the sea level rise contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To increase the carbon budget flexibility, some warming scenarios – while still staying within the limits of the Paris Agreement – include a temporal overshoot of global warming. I show that an overshoot by 0.4◦C increases the short-term and long-term ice loss from Greenland by several centimeters. The long-term increase is driven by the warming at high latitudes, which persists even when global warming is reversed. This leads to a substantial long-term commitment of the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Overall, in my thesis I show that the melt-albedo feedback is most relevant for the ice loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet on centennial timescales. In contrast, the melt-elevation feedback and its interplay with the GIA feedback become increasingly relevant on millennial timescales. All of these influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming, in the near future and on the long term.
This paper introduces a novel measure to assess similarity between event hydrographs. It is based on Cross Recurrence Plots and Recurrence Quantification Analysis which have recently gained attention in a range of disciplines when dealing with complex systems. The method attempts to quantify the event runoff dynamics and is based on the time delay embedded phase space representation of discharge hydrographs. A phase space trajectory is reconstructed from the event hydrograph, and pairs of hydrographs are compared to each other based on the distance of their phase space trajectories. Time delay embedding allows considering the multi-dimensional relationships between different points in time within the event. Hence, the temporal succession of discharge values is taken into account, such as the impact of the initial conditions on the runoff event. We provide an introduction to Cross Recurrence Plots and discuss their parameterization. An application example based on flood time series demonstrates how the method can be used to measure the similarity or dissimilarity of events, and how it can be used to detect events with rare runoff dynamics. It is argued that this methods provides a more comprehensive approach to quantify hydrograph similarity compared to conventional hydrological signatures.
The NAC transcription factor (TF) JUNGBRUNNEN1 (JUB1) is an important negative regulator of plant senescence, as well as of gibberellic acid (GA) and brassinosteroid (BR) biosynthesis in Arabidopsis thaliana. Overexpression of JUB1 promotes longevity and enhances tolerance to drought and other abiotic stresses. A similar role of JUB1 has been observed in other plant species, including tomato and banana. Our data show that JUB1 overexpressors (JUB1-OXs) accumulate higher levels of proline than WT plants under control conditions, during the onset of drought stress, and thereafter. We identified that overexpression of JUB1 induces key proline biosynthesis and suppresses key proline degradation genes. Furthermore, bZIP63, the transcription factor involved in proline metabolism, was identified as a novel downstream target of JUB1 by Yeast One-Hybrid (Y1H) analysis and Chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP). However, based on Electrophoretic Mobility Shift Assay (EMSA), direct binding of JUB1 to bZIP63 could not be confirmed. Our data indicate that JUB1-OX plants exhibit reduced stomatal conductance under control conditions. However, selective overexpression of JUB1 in guard cells did not improve drought stress tolerance in Arabidopsis. Moreover, the drought-tolerant phenotype of JUB1 overexpressors does not solely depend on the transcriptional control of the DREB2A gene. Thus, our data suggest that JUB1 confers tolerance to drought stress by regulating multiple components. Until today, none of the previous studies on JUB1´s regulatory network focused on identifying protein-protein interactions. We, therefore, performed a yeast two-hybrid screen (Y2H) which identified several protein interactors of JUB1, two of which are the calcium-binding proteins CaM1 and CaM4. Both proteins interact with JUB1 in the nucleus of Arabidopsis protoplasts. Moreover, JUB1 is expressed with CaM1 and CaM4 under the same conditions. Since CaM1.1 and CaM4.1 encode proteins with identical amino acid sequences, all further experiments were performed with constructs involving the CaM4 coding sequence. Our data show that JUB1 harbors multiple CaM-binding sites, which are localized in both the N-terminal and C-terminal regions of the protein. One of the CaM-binding sites, localized in the DNA-binding domain of JUB1, was identified as a functional CaM-binding site since its mutation strongly reduced the binding of CaM4 to JUB1. Furthermore, JUB1 transactivates expression of the stress-related gene DREB2A in mesophyll cells; this effect is significantly reduced when the calcium-binding protein CaM4 is expressed as well. Overexpression of both genes in Arabidopsis results in early senescence observed through lower chlorophyll content and an enhanced expression of senescence-associated genes (SAGs) when compared with single JUB1 overexpressors. Our data also show that JUB1 and CaM4 proteins interact in senescent leaves, which have increased Ca2+ levels when compared to young leaves. Collectively, our data indicate that JUB1 activity towards its downstream targets is fine-tuned by calcium-binding proteins during leaf senescence.
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges to humanity in this century, and most noticeable consequences are expected to be impacts on the water cycle – in particular the distribution and availability of water, which is fundamental for all life on Earth. In this context, it is essential to better understand where and when water is available and what processes influence variations in water storages. While estimates of the overall terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations are available from the GRACE satellites, these represent the vertically integrated signal over all water stored in ice, snow, soil moisture, groundwater and surface water bodies. Therefore, complementary observational data and hydrological models are still required to determine the partitioning of the measured signal among different water storages and to understand the underlying processes. However, the application of large-scale observational data is limited by their specific uncertainties and the incapacity to measure certain water fluxes and storages. Hydrological models, on the other hand, vary widely in their structure and process-representation, and rarely incorporate additional observational data to minimize uncertainties that arise from their simplified representation of the complex hydrologic cycle.
In this context, this thesis aims to contribute to improving the understanding of global water storage variability by combining simple hydrological models with a variety of complementary Earth observation-based data. To this end, a model-data integration approach is developed, in which the parameters of a parsimonious hydrological model are calibrated against several observational constraints, inducing GRACE TWS, simultaneously, while taking into account each data’s specific strengths and uncertainties. This approach is used to investigate 3 specific aspects that are relevant for modelling and understanding the composition of large-scale TWS variations.
The first study focusses on Northern latitudes, where snow and cold-region processes define the hydrological cycle. While the study confirms previous findings that seasonal dynamics of TWS are dominated by the cyclic accumulation and melt of snow, it reveals that inter-annual TWS variations on the contrary, are determined by variations in liquid water storages. Additionally, it is found to be important to consider the impact of compensatory effects of spatially heterogeneous hydrological variables when aggregating the contribution of different storage components over large areas. Hence, the determinants of TWS variations are scale-dependent and underlying driving mechanism cannot be simply transferred between spatial and temporal scales. These findings are supported by the second study for the global land areas beyond the Northern latitudes as well.
This second study further identifies the considerable impact of how vegetation is represented in hydrological models on the partitioning of TWS variations. Using spatio-temporal varying fields of Earth observation-based data to parameterize vegetation activity not only significantly improves model performance, but also reduces parameter equifinality and process uncertainties. Moreover, the representation of vegetation drastically changes the contribution of different water storages to overall TWS variability, emphasizing the key role of vegetation for water allocation, especially between sub-surface and delayed water storages. However, the study also identifies parameter equifinality regarding the decay of sub-surface and delayed water storages by either evapotranspiration or runoff, and thus emphasizes the need for further constraints hereof.
The third study focuses on the role of river water storage, in particular whether it is necessary to include computationally expensive river routing for model calibration and validation against the integrated GRACE TWS. The results suggest that river routing is not required for model calibration in such a global model-data integration approach, due to the larger influence other observational constraints, and the determinability of certain model parameters and associated processes are identified as issues of greater relevance. In contrast to model calibration, considering river water storage derived from routing schemes can already significantly improve modelled TWS compared to GRACE observations, and thus should be considered for model evaluation against GRACE data.
Beyond these specific findings that contribute to improved understanding and modelling of large-scale TWS variations, this thesis demonstrates the potential of combining simple modeling approaches with diverse Earth observational data to improve model simulations, overcome inconsistencies of different observational data sets, and identify areas that require further research. These findings encourage future efforts to take advantage of the increasing number of diverse global observational data.
The origin and structure of magnetic fields in the Galaxy are largely unknown. What is known is that they are essential for several astrophysical processes, in particular the propagation of cosmic rays. Our ability to describe the propagation of cosmic rays through the Galaxy is severely limited by the lack of observational data needed to probe the structure of the Galactic magnetic field on many different length scales. This is particularly true for modelling the propagation of cosmic rays into the Galactic halo, where our knowledge of the magnetic field is particularly poor.
In the last decade, observations of the Galactic halo in different frequency regimes have revealed the existence of out-of-plane bubble emission in the Galactic halo. In gamma rays these bubbles have been termed Fermi bubbles with a radial extent of ≈ 3 kpc and an azimuthal height of ≈ 6 kpc. The radio counterparts of the Fermi bubbles were seen by both the S-PASS telescopes and the Planck satellite, and showed a clear spatial overlap. The X-ray counterparts of the Fermi bubbles were named eROSITA bubbles after the eROSITA satellite, with a radial width of ≈ 7 kpc and an azimuthal height of ≈ 14 kpc. Taken together, these observations suggest the presence of large extended Galactic Halo Bubbles (GHB) and have stimulated interest in exploring the less explored Galactic halo.
In this thesis, a new toy model (GHB model) for the magnetic field and non-thermal electron distribution in the Galactic halo has been proposed. The new toy model has been used to produce polarised synchrotron emission sky maps. Chi-square analysis was used to compare the synthetic skymaps with the Planck 30 GHz polarised skymaps. The obtained constraints on the strength and azimuthal height were found to be in agreement with the S-PASS radio observations.
The upper, lower and best-fit values obtained from the above chi-squared analysis were used to generate three separate toy models. These three models were used to propagate ultra-high energy cosmic rays. This study was carried out for two potential sources, Centaurus A and NGC 253, to produce magnification maps and arrival direction skymaps. The simulated arrival direction skymaps were found to be consistent with the hotspots of Centaurus A and NGC 253 as seen in the observed arrival direction skymaps provided by the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO).
The turbulent magnetic field component of the GHB model was also used to investigate the extragalactic dipole suppression seen by PAO. UHECRs with an extragalactic dipole were forward-tracked through the turbulent GHB model at different field strengths. The suppression in the dipole due to the varying diffusion coefficient from the simulations was noted. The results could also be compared with an analytical analogy of electrostatics. The simulations of the extragalactic dipole suppression were in agreement with similar studies carried out for galactic cosmic rays.
Air pollution has been a persistent global problem in the past several hundred years. While some industrialized nations have shown improvements in their air quality through stricter regulation, others have experienced declines as they rapidly industrialize. The WHO’s 2021 update of their recommended air pollution limit values reflects the substantial impacts on human health of pollutants such as NO2 and O3, as recent epidemiological evidence suggests substantial long-term health impacts of air pollution even at low concentrations. Alongside developments in our understanding of air pollution's health impacts, the new technology of low-cost sensors (LCS) has been taken up by both academia and industry as a new method for measuring air pollution. Due primarily to their lower cost and smaller size, they can be used in a variety of different applications, including in the development of higher resolution measurement networks, in source identification, and in measurements of air pollution exposure. While significant efforts have been made to accurately calibrate LCS with reference instrumentation and various statistical models, accuracy and precision remain limited by variable sensor sensitivity. Furthermore, standard procedures for calibration still do not exist and most proprietary calibration algorithms are black-box, inaccessible to the public. This work seeks to expand the knowledge base on LCS in several different ways: 1) by developing an open-source calibration methodology; 2) by deploying LCS at high spatial resolution in urban environments to test their capability in measuring microscale changes in urban air pollution; 3) by connecting LCS deployments with the implementation of local mobility policies to provide policy advice on resultant changes in air quality.
In a first step, it was found that LCS can be consistently calibrated with good performance against reference instrumentation using seven general steps: 1) assessing raw data distribution, 2) cleaning data, 3) flagging data, 4) model selection and tuning, 5) model validation, 6) exporting final predictions, and 7) calculating associated uncertainty. By emphasizing the need for consistent reporting of details at each step, most crucially on model selection, validation, and performance, this work pushed forward with the effort towards standardization of calibration methodologies. In addition, with the open-source publication of code and data for the seven-step methodology, advances were made towards reforming the largely black-box nature of LCS calibrations.
With a transparent and reliable calibration methodology established, LCS were then deployed in various street canyons between 2017 and 2020. Using two types of LCS, metal oxide (MOS) and electrochemical (EC), their performance in capturing expected patterns of urban NO2 and O3 pollution was evaluated. Results showed that calibrated concentrations from MOS and EC sensors matched general diurnal patterns in NO2 and O3 pollution measured using reference instruments. While MOS proved to be unreliable for discerning differences among measured locations within the urban environment, the concentrations measured with calibrated EC sensors matched expectations from modelling studies on NO2 and O3 pollution distribution in street canyons. As such, it was concluded that LCS are appropriate for measuring urban air quality, including for assisting urban-scale air pollution model development, and can reveal new insights into air pollution in urban environments.
To achieve the last goal of this work, two measurement campaigns were conducted in connection with the implementation of three mobility policies in Berlin. The first involved the construction of a pop-up bike lane on Kottbusser Damm in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the second surrounded the temporary implementation of a community space on Böckhstrasse, and the last was focused on the closure of a portion of Friedrichstrasse to all motorized traffic. In all cases, measurements of NO2 were collected before and after the measure was implemented to assess changes in air quality resultant from these policies. Results from the Kottbusser Damm experiment showed that the bike-lane reduced NO2 concentrations that cyclists were exposed to by 22 ± 19%. On Friedrichstrasse, the street closure reduced NO2 concentrations to the level of the urban background without worsening the air quality on side streets. These valuable results were communicated swiftly to partners in the city administration responsible for evaluating the policies’ success and future, highlighting the ability of LCS to provide policy-relevant results.
As a new technology, much is still to be learned about LCS and their value to academic research in the atmospheric sciences. Nevertheless, this work has advanced the state of the art in several ways. First, it contributed a novel open-source calibration methodology that can be used by a LCS end-users for various air pollutants. Second, it strengthened the evidence base on the reliability of LCS for measuring urban air quality, finding through novel deployments in street canyons that LCS can be used at high spatial resolution to understand microscale air pollution dynamics. Last, it is the first of its kind to connect LCS measurements directly with mobility policies to understand their influences on local air quality, resulting in policy-relevant findings valuable for decisionmakers. It serves as an example of the potential for LCS to expand our understanding of air pollution at various scales, as well as their ability to serve as valuable tools in transdisciplinary research.
The complex hierarchical structure of bone undergoes a lifelong remodeling process, where it adapts to mechanical needs. Hereby, bone resorption by osteoclasts and bone formation by osteoblasts have to be balanced to sustain a healthy and stable organ. Osteocytes orchestrate this interplay by sensing mechanical strains and translating them into biochemical signals. The osteocytes are located in lacunae and are connected to one another and other bone cells via cell processes through small channels, the canaliculi. Lacunae and canaliculi form a network (LCN) of extracellular spaces that is able to transport ions and enables cell-to-cell communication. Osteocytes might also contribute to mineral homeostasis by direct interactions with the surrounding matrix. If the LCN is acting as a transport system, this should be reflected in the mineralization pattern. The central hypothesis of this thesis is that osteocytes are actively changing their material environment. Characterization methods of material science are used to achieve the aim of detecting traces of this interaction between osteocytes and the extracellular matrix. First, healthy murine bones were characterized. The properties analyzed were then compared with three murine model systems: 1) a loading model, where a bone of the mouse was loaded during its life time; 2) a healing model, where a bone of the mouse was cut to induce a healing response; and 3) a disease model, where the Fbn1 gene is dysfunctional causing defects in the formation of the extracellular tissue.
The measurement strategy included routines that make it possible to analyze the organization of the LCN and the material components (i.e., the organic collagen matrix and the mineral particles) in the same bone volumes and compare the spatial distribution of different data sets. The three-dimensional network architecture of the LCN is visualized by confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) after rhodamine staining and is then subsequently quantified. The calcium content is determined via quantitative backscattered electron imaging (qBEI), while small- and wide-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS and WAXS) are employed to determine the thickness and length of local mineral particles.
First, tibiae cortices of healthy mice were characterized to investigate how changes in LCN architecture can be attributed to interactions of osteocytes with the surrounding bone matrix. The tibial mid-shaft cross-sections showed two main regions, consisting of a band with unordered LCN surrounded by a region with ordered LCN. The unordered region is a remnant of early bone formation and exhibited short and thin mineral particles. The surrounding, more aligned bone showed ordered and dense LCN as well as thicker and longer mineral particles. The calcium content was unchanged between the two regions.
In the mouse loading model, the left tibia underwent two weeks of mechanical stimulation, which results in increased bone formation and decreased resorption in skeletally mature mice. Here the specific research question addressed was how do bone material characteristics change at (re)modeling sites? The new bone formed in response to mechanical stimulation showed similar properties in terms of the mineral particles, like the ordered calcium region but lower calcium content compared to the right, non-loaded control bone of the same mice. There was a clear, recognizable border between mature and newly formed bone. Nevertheless, some canaliculi went through this border connecting the LCN of mature and newly formed bone.
Additionally, the question should be answered whether the LCN topology and the bone matrix material properties adapt to loading. Although, mechanically stimulated bones did not show differences in calcium content compared to controls, different correlations were found between the local LCN density and the local Ca content depending on whether the bone was loaded or not. These results suggest that the LCN may serve as a mineral reservoir.
For the healing model, the femurs of mice underwent an osteotomy, stabilized with an external fixator and were allowed to heal for 21 days. Thus, the spatial variations in the LCN topology with mineral properties within different tissue types and their interfaces, namely calcified cartilage, bony callus and cortex, could be simultaneously visualized and compared in this model. All tissue types showed structural differences across multiple length scales. Calcium content increased and became more homogeneous from calcified cartilage to bony callus to lamellar cortical bone. The degree of LCN organization increased as well, while the lacunae became smaller, as did the lacunar density between these different tissue types that make up the callus. In the calcified cartilage, the mineral particles were short and thin. The newly formed callus exhibited thicker mineral particles, which still had a low degree of orientation. While most of the callus had a woven-like structure, it also served as a scaffold for more lamellar tissue at the edges. The lamelar bone callus showed thinner mineral particles, but a higher degree of alignment in both, mineral particles and the LCN. The cortex showed the highest values for mineral length, thickness and degree of orientation. At the same time, the lacunae number density was 34% lower and the lacunar volume 40% smaller compared to bony callus. The transition zone between cortical and callus regions showed a continuous convergence of bone mineral properties and lacunae shape. Although only a few canaliculi connected callus and the cortical region, this indicates that communication between osteocytes of both tissues should be possible. The presented correlations between LCN architecture and mineral properties across tissue types may suggest that osteocytes have an active role in mineralization processes of healing.
A mouse model for the disease marfan syndrome, which includes a genetic defect in the fibrillin-1 gene, was investigated. In humans, Marfan syndrome is characterized by a range of clinical symptoms such as long bone overgrowth, loose joints, reduced bone mineral density, compromised bone microarchitecture, and increased fracture rates. Thus, fibrillin-1 seems to play a role in the skeletal homeostasis. Therefore, the present work studied how marfan syndrome alters LCN architecture and the surrounding bone matrix. The mice with marfan syndrome showed longer tibiae than their healthy littermates from an age of seven weeks onwards. In contrast, the cortical development appeared retarded, which was observed across all measured characteristics, i. e. lower endocortical bone formation, looser and less organized lacuno-canalicular network, less collagen orientation, thinner and shorter mineral particles.
In each of the three model systems, this study found that changes in the LCN architecture spatially correlated with bone matrix material parameters. While not knowing the exact mechanism, these results provide indications that osteocytes can actively manipulate a mineral reservoir located around the canaliculi to make a quickly accessible contribution to mineral homeostasis. However, this interaction is most likely not one-sided, but could be understood as an interplay between osteocytes and extra-cellular matrix, since the bone matrix contains biochemical signaling molecules (e.g. non-collagenous proteins) that can change osteocyte behavior. Bone (re)modeling can therefore not only be understood as a method for removing defects or adapting to external mechanical stimuli, but also for increasing the efficiency of possible osteocyte-mineral interactions during bone homeostasis. With these findings, it seems reasonable to consider osteocytes as a target for drug development related to bone diseases that cause changes in bone composition and mechanical properties. It will most likely require the combined effort of materials scientists, cell biologists, and molecular biologists to gain a deeper understanding of how bone cells respond to their material environment.
Today, more than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas. With a high density of population and assets, urban areas are not only the economic, cultural and social hubs of every society, they are also highly susceptible to natural disasters. As a consequence of rising sea levels and an expected increase in extreme weather events caused by a changing climate in combination with growing cities, flooding is an increasing threat to many urban agglomerations around the globe.
To mitigate the destructive consequences of flooding, appropriate risk management and adaptation strategies are required. So far, flood risk management in urban areas is almost exclusively focused on managing river and coastal flooding. Often overlooked is the risk from small-scale rainfall-triggered flooding, where the rainfall intensity of rainstorms exceeds the capacity of urban drainage systems, leading to immediate flooding. Referred to as pluvial flooding, this flood type exclusive to urban areas has caused severe losses in cities around the world. Without further intervention, losses from pluvial flooding are expected to increase in many urban areas due to an increase of impervious surfaces compounded with an aging drainage infrastructure and a projected increase in heavy precipitation events. While this requires the integration of pluvial flood risk into risk management plans, so far little is known about the adverse consequences of pluvial flooding due to a lack of both detailed data sets and studies on pluvial flood impacts. As a consequence, methods for reliably estimating pluvial flood losses, needed for pluvial flood risk assessment, are still missing.
Therefore, this thesis investigates how pluvial flood losses to private households can be reliably estimated, based on an improved understanding of the drivers of pluvial flood loss. For this purpose, detailed data from pluvial flood-affected households was collected through structured telephone- and web-surveys following pluvial flood events in Germany and the Netherlands.
Pluvial flood losses to households are the result of complex interactions between impact characteristics such as the water depth and a household’s resistance as determined by its risk awareness, preparedness, emergency response, building properties and other influencing factors. Both exploratory analysis and machine-learning approaches were used to analyze differences in resistance and impacts between households and their effects on the resulting losses. The comparison of case studies showed that the awareness around pluvial flooding among private households is quite low. Low awareness not only challenges the effective dissemination of early warnings, but was also found to influence the implementation of private precautionary measures. The latter were predominately implemented by households with previous experience of pluvial flooding. Even cases where previous flood events affected a different part of the same city did not lead to an increase in preparedness of the surveyed households, highlighting the need to account for small-scale variability in both impact and resistance parameters when assessing pluvial flood risk.
While it was concluded that the combination of low awareness, ineffective early warning and the fact that only a minority of buildings were adapted to pluvial flooding impaired the coping capacities of private households, the often low water levels still enabled households to mitigate or even prevent losses through a timely and effective emergency response.
These findings were confirmed by the detection of loss-influencing variables, showing that cases in which households were able to prevent any loss to the building structure are predominately explained by resistance variables such as the household’s risk awareness, while the degree of loss is mainly explained by impact variables.
Based on the important loss-influencing variables detected, different flood loss models were developed. Similar to flood loss models for river floods, the empirical data from the preceding data collection was used to train flood loss models describing the relationship between impact and resistance parameters and the resulting loss to building structures. Different approaches were adapted from river flood loss models using both models with the water depth as only predictor for building structure loss and models incorporating additional variables from the preceding variable detection routine.
The high predictive errors of all compared models showed that point predictions are not suitable for estimating losses on the building level, as they severely impair the reliability of the estimates. For that reason, a new probabilistic framework based on Bayesian inference was introduced that is able to provide predictive distributions instead of single loss estimates. These distributions not only give a range of probable losses, they also provide information on how likely a specific loss value is, representing the uncertainty in the loss estimate.
Using probabilistic loss models, it was found that the certainty and reliability of a loss estimate on the building level is not only determined by the use of additional predictors as shown in previous studies, but also by the choice of response distribution defining the shape of the predictive distribution. Here, a mix between a beta and a Bernoulli distribution to account for households that are able to prevent losses to their building’s structure was found to provide significantly more certain and reliable estimates than previous approaches using Gaussian or non-parametric response distributions.
The successful model transfer and post-event application to estimate building structure loss in Houston, TX, caused by pluvial flooding during Hurricane Harvey confirmed previous findings, and demonstrated the potential of the newly developed multi-variable beta model for future risk assessments. The highly detailed input data set constructed from openly available data sources containing over 304,000 affected buildings in Harris County further showed the potential of data-driven, building-level loss models for pluvial flood risk assessment.
In conclusion, pluvial flood losses to private households are the result of complex interactions between impact and resistance variables, which should be represented in loss models. The local occurrence of pluvial floods requires loss estimates on high spatial resolutions, i.e. on the building level, where losses are variable and uncertainties are high.
Therefore, probabilistic loss estimates describing the uncertainty of the estimate should be used instead of point predictions. While the performance of probabilistic models on the building level are mainly driven by the choice of response distribution, multi-variable models are recommended for two reasons:
First, additional resistance variables improve the detection of cases in which households were able to prevent structural losses.
Second, the added variability of additional predictors provides a better representation of the uncertainties when loss estimates from multiple buildings are aggregated.
This leads to the conclusion that data-driven probabilistic loss models on the building level allow for a reliable loss estimation at an unprecedented level of detail, with a consistent quantification of uncertainties on all aggregation levels. This makes the presented approach suitable for a wide range of applications, from decision support in spatial planning to impact- based early warning systems.