86-XX GEOPHYSICS [See also 76U05, 76V05]
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- Abschätzung der Unsicherheiten (1)
- ETAS Modell (1)
- ETAS model (1)
- Erdmantel (1)
- Hydrathabitus (1)
- Methanhydrat (1)
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- aftershocks (1)
- earth's mantle (1)
- hydrate habitus (1)
Institute
Analysis and modeling of transient earthquake patterns and their dependence on local stress regimes
(2015)
Investigations in the field of earthquake triggering and associated interactions, which includes aftershock triggering as well as induced seismicity, is important for seismic hazard assessment due to earthquakes destructive power. One of the approaches to study earthquake triggering and their interactions is the use of statistical earthquake models, which are based on knowledge of the basic seismicity properties, in particular, the magnitude distribution and spatiotemporal properties of the triggered events.
In my PhD thesis I focus on some specific aspects of aftershock properties, namely, the relative seismic moment release of the aftershocks with respect to the mainshocks; the spatial correlation between aftershock occurrence and fault deformation; and on the influence of aseismic transients on the aftershock parameter estimation. For the analysis of aftershock sequences I choose a statistical approach, in particular, the well known Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which accounts for the input of background and triggered seismicity. For my specific purposes, I develop two ETAS model modifications in collaboration with Sebastian Hainzl. By means of this approach, I estimate the statistical aftershock parameters and performed simulations of aftershock sequences as well.
In the case of seismic moment release of aftershocks, I focus on the ratio of cumulative seismic moment release with respect to the mainshocks. Specifically, I investigate the ratio with respect to the focal mechanism of the mainshock and estimate an effective magnitude, which represents the cumulative aftershock energy (similar to Bath's law, which defines the average difference between mainshock and the largest aftershock magnitudes). Furthermore, I compare the observed seismic moment ratios with the results of the ETAS simulations. In particular, I test a restricted ETAS (RETAS) model which is based on results of a clock advanced model and static stress triggering.
To analyze spatial variations of triggering parameters I focus in my second approach on the aftershock occurrence triggered by large mainshocks and the study of the aftershock parameter distribution and their spatial correlation with the coseismic/postseismic slip and interseismic locking. To invert the aftershock parameters I improve the modified ETAS (m-ETAS) model, which is able to take the extension of the mainshock rupture into account. I compare the results obtained by the classical approach with the output of the m-ETAS model.
My third approach is concerned with the temporal clustering of seismicity, which might not only be related to earthquake-earthquake interactions, but also to a time-dependent background rate, potentially biasing the parameter estimations. Thus, my coauthors and I also applied a modification of the ETAS model, which is able to take into account time-dependent background activity. It can be applicable for two different cases: when an aftershock catalog has a temporal incompleteness or when the background seismicity rate changes with time, due to presence of aseismic forces.
An essential part of any research is the testing of the developed models using observational data sets, which are appropriate for the particular study case. Therefore, in the case of seismic moment release I use the global seismicity catalog. For the spatial distribution of triggering parameters I exploit two aftershock sequences of the Mw8.8 2010 Maule (Chile) and Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku (Japan) mainshocks. In addition, I use published geodetic slip models of different authors. To test our ability to detect aseismic transients my coauthors and I use the data sets from Western Bohemia (Central Europe) and California.
Our results indicate that:
(1) the seismic moment of aftershocks with respect to mainshocks depends on the static stress changes and is maximal for the normal, intermediate for thrust and minimal for strike-slip stress regimes, where the RETAS model shows a good correspondence with the results;
(2) The spatial distribution of aftershock parameters, obtained by the m-ETAS model, shows anomalous values in areas of reactivated crustal fault systems. In addition, the aftershock density is found to be correlated with coseismic slip gradient, afterslip, interseismic coupling and b-values. Aftershock seismic moment is positively correlated with the areas of maximum coseismic slip and interseismically locked areas. These correlations might be related to the stress level or to material properties variations in space;
(3) Ignoring aseismic transient forcing or temporal catalog incompleteness can lead to the significant under- or overestimation of the underlying trigger parameters. In the case when a catalog is complete, this method helps to identify aseismic sources.
We study segregation of the subducted oceanic crust (OC) at the core mantle boundary and its ability to accumulate and form large thermochemical piles (such as the seismically observed Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces - LLSVPs). Our high-resolution numerical simulations suggest that the longevity of LLSVPs for up to three billion years, and possibly longer, can be ensured by a balance in the rate of segregation of high-density OC-material to the CMB, and the rate of its entrainment away from the CMB by mantle upwellings.
For a range of parameters tested in this study, a large-scale compositional anomaly forms at the CMB, similar in shape and size to the LLSVPs. Neutrally buoyant thermochemical piles formed by mechanical stirring - where thermally induced negative density anomaly is balanced by the presence of a fraction of dense anomalous material - best resemble the geometry of LLSVPs. Such neutrally buoyant piles tend to emerge and survive for at least 3Gyr in simulations with quite different parameters. We conclude that for a plausible range of values of density anomaly of OC material in the lower mantle - it is likely that it segregates to the CMB, gets mechanically mixed with the ambient material, and forms neutrally buoyant large scale compositional anomalies similar in shape to the LLSVPs.
We have developed an efficient FEM code with dynamically adaptive time and space resolution, and marker-in-cell methodology. This enabled us to model thermochemical mantle convection at realistically high convective vigor, strong thermally induced viscosity variations, and long term evolution of compositional fields.
Methanhydrate sind besonders in Verbindung mit den steigenden Weltmarktpreisen für Öl und Gas in den vergangenen Jahren mehr und mehr in den Fokus der Energiewirtschaft geraten, was zu einer starken Zunahme der angewandten Forschungsprojekte auf diesem Gebiet führte. Da Methanhydrat nur unter hohem Druck und niedrigen Temperaturen stabil ist, ist die Gewinnung natürlicher Proben für Laboruntersuchungen technisch sehr aufwendig und vor allem teuer. Zur Charakterisierung der Eigenschaften hydratführender Reservoire ist man häufig auf die Herstellung synthetischer Proben angewiesen. Die Eigenschaften der synthetisierten Proben sind dabei abhängig von der Herstellungsmethode und man ist noch immer auf der Suche nach Verfahren, mit denen sich möglichst „naturnahe“ Proben mit vertretbarem Aufwand erzeugen lassen.
In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde eine neue, relativ schnell durchführbare Methode getestet, die im Porenraum von Sedimenten schwimmende bzw. gefügestützende Hydrate bildet, wie sie in der Natur vorkommen. Gleichzeitig erzeugt sie eine gleichmäßige Verteilung des Hydrats über die Probe und bietet gute Kontrolle über den Hydratgehalt. Sie funktioniert wie folgt: Eine mit einer KCl-Lösung gesättigte Sedimentprobe wird zu einem bestimmten Teil ausgefroren und das übrige Wasser mit Methan verdrängt. Durch Anlegen eines Methandrucks im Stabilitätsbereich wird das Eis zu Methanhydrat umgesetzt. Im Anschluss wird die Probe erneut mit einer KCl-Lösung gesättigt. Anhand seismischer Messungen konnte bestätigt werden, dass Hydrat mit dem gewünschten Hydrathabitus erzeugt wurde. Des Weiteren wurde gezeigt, dass die eishaltigen Proben aufgrund ähnlicher physikalischer Eigenschaften bereits vor der Umsetzung des Eises zu Methanhydrat als Näherung für Proben mit Porenraumhydrat verwendet werden können.