86-XX GEOPHYSICS [See also 76U05, 76V05]
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The Andes are a ~7000 km long N-S trending mountain range developed along the South American western continental margin. Driven by the subduction of the oceanic Nazca plate beneath the continental South American plate, the formation of the northern and central parts of the orogen is a type case for a non-collisional orogeny. In the southern Central Andes (SCA, 29°S-39°S), the oceanic plate changes the subduction angle between 33°S and 35°S from almost horizontal (< 5° dip) in the north to a steeper angle (~30° dip) in the south. This sector of the Andes also displays remarkable along- and across- strike variations of the tectonic deformation patterns. These include a systematic decrease of topographic elevation, of crustal shortening and foreland and orogenic width, as well as an alternation of the foreland deformation style between thick-skinned and thin-skinned recorded along- and across the strike of the subduction zone. Moreover, the SCA are a very seismically active region. The continental plate is characterized by a relatively shallow seismicity (< 30 km depth) which is mainly focussed at the transition from the orogen to the lowland areas of the foreland and the forearc; in contrast, deeper seismicity occurs below the interiors of the northern foreland. Additionally, frequent seismicity is also recorded in the shallow parts of the oceanic plate and in a sector of the flat slab segment between 31°S and 33°S. The observed spatial heterogeneity in tectonic and seismic deformation in the SCA has been attributed to multiple causes, including variations in sediment thickness, the presence of inherited structures and changes in the subduction angle of the oceanic slab. However, there is no study that inquired the relationship between the long-term rheological configuration of the SCA and the spatial deformation patterns. Moreover, the effects of the density and thickness configuration of the continental plate and of variations in the slab dip angle in the rheological state of the lithosphere have been not thoroughly investigated yet. Since rheology depends on composition, pressure and temperature, a detailed characterization of the compositional, structural and thermal fields of the lithosphere is needed. Therefore, by using multiple geophysical approaches and data sources, I constructed the following 3D models of the SCA lithosphere: (i) a seismically-constrained structural and density model that was tested against the gravity field; (ii) a thermal model integrating the conversion of mantle shear-wave velocities to temperature with steady-state conductive calculations in the uppermost lithosphere (< 50 km depth), validated by temperature and heat-flow measurements; and (iii) a rheological model of the long-term lithospheric strength using as input the previously-generated models.
The results of this dissertation indicate that the present-day thermal and rheological fields of the SCA are controlled by different mechanisms at different depths. At shallow depths (< 50 km), the thermomechanical field is modulated by the heterogeneous composition of the continental lithosphere. The overprint of the oceanic slab is detectable where the oceanic plate is shallow (< 85 km depth) and the radiogenic crust is thin, resulting in overall lower temperatures and higher strength compared to regions where the slab is steep and the radiogenic crust is thick. At depths > 50 km, largest temperatures variations occur where the descending slab is detected, which implies that the deep thermal field is mainly affected by the slab dip geometry.
The outcomes of this thesis suggests that long-term thermomechanical state of the lithosphere influences the spatial distribution of seismic deformation. Most of the seismicity within the continental plate occurs above the modelled transition from brittle to ductile conditions. Additionally, there is a spatial correlation between the location of these events and the transition from the mechanically strong domains of the forearc and foreland to the weak domain of the orogen. In contrast, seismicity within the oceanic plate is also detected where long-term ductile conditions are expected. I therefore analysed the possible influence of additional mechanisms triggering these earthquakes, including the compaction of sediments in the subduction interface and dehydration reactions in the slab. To that aim, I carried out a qualitative analysis of the state of hydration in the mantle using the ratio between compressional- and shear-wave velocity (vp/vs ratio) from a previous seismic tomography. The results from this analysis indicate that the majority of the seismicity spatially correlates with hydrated areas of the slab and overlying continental mantle, with the exception of the cluster within the flat slab segment. In this region, earthquakes are likely triggered by flexural processes where the slab changes from a flat to a steep subduction angle.
First-order variations in the observed tectonic patterns also seem to be influenced by the thermomechanical configuration of the lithosphere. The mechanically strong domains of the forearc and foreland, due to their resistance to deformation, display smaller amounts of shortening than the relatively weak orogenic domain. In addition, the structural and thermomechanical characteristics modelled in this dissertation confirm previous analyses from geodynamic models pointing to the control of the observed heterogeneities in the orogen and foreland deformation style. These characteristics include the lithospheric and crustal thickness, the presence of weak sediments and the variations in gravitational potential energy.
Specific conditions occur in the cold and strong northern foreland, which is characterized by active seismicity and thick-skinned structures, although the modelled crustal strength exceeds the typical values of externally-applied tectonic stresses. The additional mechanisms that could explain the strain localization in a region that should resist deformation are: (i) increased tectonic forces coming from the steepening of the slab and (ii) enhanced weakening along inherited structures from pre-Andean deformation events. Finally, the thermomechanical conditions of this sector of the foreland could be a key factor influencing the preservation of the flat subduction angle at these latitudes of the SCA.
The Antarctic ice sheet is the largest freshwater reservoir worldwide. If it were to melt completely, global sea levels would rise by about 58 m. Calculation of projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise under global warming conditions is an ongoing effort which
yields large ranges in predictions. Among the reasons for this are uncertainties related to the physics of ice sheet modeling. These
uncertainties include two processes that could lead to runaway ice retreat: the Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), which causes rapid grounding line retreat on retrograde bedrock, and the Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI), in which tall ice cliffs become unstable and calve off, exposing even taller ice cliffs.
In my thesis, I investigated both marine instabilities (MISI and MICI) using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), with a focus on MICI.
Methanhydrate sind besonders in Verbindung mit den steigenden Weltmarktpreisen für Öl und Gas in den vergangenen Jahren mehr und mehr in den Fokus der Energiewirtschaft geraten, was zu einer starken Zunahme der angewandten Forschungsprojekte auf diesem Gebiet führte. Da Methanhydrat nur unter hohem Druck und niedrigen Temperaturen stabil ist, ist die Gewinnung natürlicher Proben für Laboruntersuchungen technisch sehr aufwendig und vor allem teuer. Zur Charakterisierung der Eigenschaften hydratführender Reservoire ist man häufig auf die Herstellung synthetischer Proben angewiesen. Die Eigenschaften der synthetisierten Proben sind dabei abhängig von der Herstellungsmethode und man ist noch immer auf der Suche nach Verfahren, mit denen sich möglichst „naturnahe“ Proben mit vertretbarem Aufwand erzeugen lassen.
In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde eine neue, relativ schnell durchführbare Methode getestet, die im Porenraum von Sedimenten schwimmende bzw. gefügestützende Hydrate bildet, wie sie in der Natur vorkommen. Gleichzeitig erzeugt sie eine gleichmäßige Verteilung des Hydrats über die Probe und bietet gute Kontrolle über den Hydratgehalt. Sie funktioniert wie folgt: Eine mit einer KCl-Lösung gesättigte Sedimentprobe wird zu einem bestimmten Teil ausgefroren und das übrige Wasser mit Methan verdrängt. Durch Anlegen eines Methandrucks im Stabilitätsbereich wird das Eis zu Methanhydrat umgesetzt. Im Anschluss wird die Probe erneut mit einer KCl-Lösung gesättigt. Anhand seismischer Messungen konnte bestätigt werden, dass Hydrat mit dem gewünschten Hydrathabitus erzeugt wurde. Des Weiteren wurde gezeigt, dass die eishaltigen Proben aufgrund ähnlicher physikalischer Eigenschaften bereits vor der Umsetzung des Eises zu Methanhydrat als Näherung für Proben mit Porenraumhydrat verwendet werden können.
Variations in the distribution of mass within an orogen may lead to transient sediment storage, which in turn might affect the state of stress and the level of fault activity. Distinguishing between different forcing mechanisms causing variations of sediment flux and tectonic activity, is therefore one of the most challenging tasks in understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of active mountain belts.
The Himalayan mountain belt is one of the most significant Cenozoic collisional mountain belt, formed due to collision between northward-bound Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate during the last 55-50 Ma. Ongoing convergence of these two tectonic plates is accommodated by faulting and folding within the Himalayan arc-shaped orogen and the continued lateral and vertical growth of the Tibetan Plateau and mountain belts adjacent to the plateau as well as regions farther north. Growth of the Himalayan orogen is manifested by the development of successive south-vergent thrust systems. These thrust systems divide the orogen into different morphotectonic domains. From north to south these thrusts are the Main Central Thrust (MCT), the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). The growing topography interacts with moisture-bearing monsoonal winds, which results in pronounced gradients in rainfall, weathering, erosion and sediment transport toward the foreland and beyond. However, a fraction of this sediment is trapped and transiently stored within the intermontane valleys or ‘dun’s within the lower-elevation foothills of the range. Improved understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of these sediment archives could provide a unique opportunity to decipher the triggers of variations in sediment production, delivery and storage in an actively deforming mountain belt and support efforts to test linkages between sediment volumes in intermontane basins and changes in the shallow crustal stress field. As sediment redistribution in mountain belts on timescales of 102-104 years can effect cultural characteristics and infrastructure in the intermontane valleys and may even impact the seismotectonics of a mountain belt, there is a heightened interest in understanding sediment-routing processes and causal relationships between tectonism, climate and topography. It is here at the intersection between tectonic processes and superposed climatic and sedimentary processes in the Himalayan orogenic wedge, where my investigation is focused on. The study area is the intermontane Kangra Basin in the northwestern Sub-Himalaya, because the characteristics of the different Himalayan morphotectonic provinces are well developed, the area is part of a region strongly influenced by monsoonal forcing, and the existence of numerous fluvial terraces provides excellent strain markers to assess deformation processes within the Himalayan orogenic wedge. In addition, being located in front of the Dhauladhar Range the region is characterized by pronounced gradients in past and present-day erosion and sediment processes associated with repeatedly changing climatic conditions. In light of these conditions I analysed climate-driven late Pleistocene-Holocene sediment cycles in this tectonically active region, which may be responsible for triggering the tectonic re-organization within the Himalayan orogenic wedge, leading to out-of-sequence thrusting, at least since early Holocene.
The Kangra Basin is bounded by the MBT and the Sub-Himalayan Jwalamukhi Thrust (JMT) in the north and south, respectively and transiently stores sediments derived from the Dhauladhar Range. The Basin contains ~200-m-thick conglomerates reflecting two distinct aggradation phases; following aggradation, several fluvial terraces were sculpted into these fan deposits. 10Be CRN surface exposure dating of these terrace levels provides an age of 53.4±3.2 ka for the highest-preserved terrace (AF1); subsequently, this surface was incised until ~15 ka, when the second fan (AF2) began to form. AF2 fan aggradation was superseded by episodic Holocene incision, creating at least four terrace levels. We find a correlation between variations in sediment transport and ∂18O records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). During strengthened ISMs sand post-LGM glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux, whereas periods of a weakened ISM coupled with lower sediment supply coincided with renewed re-incision.
However, the evolution of fluvial terraces along Sub-Himalayan streams in the Kangra sector is also forced by tectonic processes. Back-tilted, folded terraces clearly document tectonic activity of the JMT. Offset of one of the terrace levels indicates a shortening rate of 5.6±0.8 to 7.5±1.0 mm.a-1 over the last ~10 ka. Importantly, my study reveals that late Pleistocene/Holocene out-of-sequence thrusting accommodates 40-60% of the total 14±2 mm.a-1 shortening partitioned throughout the Sub-Himalaya. Importantly, the JMT records shortening at a lower rate over longer timescales hints towards out-of-sequence activity within the Sub-Himalaya. Re-activation of the JMT could be related to changes in the tectonic stress field caused by large-scale sediment removal from the basin. I speculate that the deformation processes of the Sub-Himalaya behave according to the predictions of critical wedge model and assume the following: While >200m of sediment aggradation would trigger foreland-ward propagation of the deformation front, re-incision and removal of most of the stored sediments (nearly 80-85% of the optimum basin-fill) would again create a sub-critical condition of the wedge taper and trigger the retreat of the deformation front.
While tectonism is responsible for the longer-term processes of erosion associated with steepening hillslopes, sediment cycles in this environment are mainly the result of climatic forcing. My new 10Be cosmogenic nuclide exposure dates and a synopsis of previous studies show the late Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fills and fluvial terraces studied here record periodic fluctuations of sediment supply and transport capacity on timescales of 1000-100000 years. To further evaluate the potential influence of climate change on these fluctuations, I compared the timing of aggradation and incision phases recorded within remnant alluvial fans and terraces with continental climate archives such as speleothems in neighboring regions affected by monsoonal precipitation. Together with previously published OSL ages yielding the timing of aggradation, I find a correlation between variations in sediment transport with oxygen-isotope records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Accordingly, during periods of increased monsoon intensity (transitions from dry and cold to wet and warm periods – MIS4 to MIS3 and MIS2 to MIS1) (MIS=marine isotope stage) and post-Last Glacial Maximum glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux. Conversely, periods of weakened monsoon intensity or lower sediment supply coincide with re-incision of the existing basin-fill.
Finally, my study entails part of a low-temperature thermochronology study to assess the youngest exhumation history of the Dhauladhar Range. Zircon helium (ZHe) ages and existing low-temperature data sets (ZHe, apatite fission track (AFT)) across this range, together with 3D thermokinematic modeling (PECUBE) reveals constraints on exhumation and activity of the range-bounding Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) since at least mid-Miocene time. The modeling results indicate mean slip rates on the MBT-fault ramp of ~2 – 3 mm.a-1 since its activation. This has lead to the growth of the >5-km-high frontal Dhauladhar Range and continuous deep-seated exhumation and erosion. The obtained results also provide interesting constraints of deformation patterns and their variation along strike. The results point towards the absence of the time-transient ‘mid-crustal ramp’ in the basal decollement and
duplexing of the Lesser Himalayan sequence, unlike the nearby regions or even the central Nepal domain. A fraction of convergence (~10-15%) is accommodated along the deep-seated MBT-ramp, most likely merging into the MHT. This finding is crucial for a rigorous assessment of the overall level of tectonic activity in the Himalayan morphotectonic provinces as it contradicts recently-published geodetic shortening estimates. In these studies, it has been proposed that the total Himalayan shortening in the NW Himalaya is accommodated within the Sub-Himalaya whereas no tectonic activity is assigned to the MBT.
We study segregation of the subducted oceanic crust (OC) at the core mantle boundary and its ability to accumulate and form large thermochemical piles (such as the seismically observed Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces - LLSVPs). Our high-resolution numerical simulations suggest that the longevity of LLSVPs for up to three billion years, and possibly longer, can be ensured by a balance in the rate of segregation of high-density OC-material to the CMB, and the rate of its entrainment away from the CMB by mantle upwellings.
For a range of parameters tested in this study, a large-scale compositional anomaly forms at the CMB, similar in shape and size to the LLSVPs. Neutrally buoyant thermochemical piles formed by mechanical stirring - where thermally induced negative density anomaly is balanced by the presence of a fraction of dense anomalous material - best resemble the geometry of LLSVPs. Such neutrally buoyant piles tend to emerge and survive for at least 3Gyr in simulations with quite different parameters. We conclude that for a plausible range of values of density anomaly of OC material in the lower mantle - it is likely that it segregates to the CMB, gets mechanically mixed with the ambient material, and forms neutrally buoyant large scale compositional anomalies similar in shape to the LLSVPs.
We have developed an efficient FEM code with dynamically adaptive time and space resolution, and marker-in-cell methodology. This enabled us to model thermochemical mantle convection at realistically high convective vigor, strong thermally induced viscosity variations, and long term evolution of compositional fields.
The Lombok Island is part of the Lesser Sunda Islands (LSI) region – Indonesia, situated along the Sunda-Banda Arcs transition. It lies between zones characterized by the highest intensity geomagnetic anomalies of this region, remarkable as one of the eight most important features provided on the 1st edition of World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map. The seismicity of this region during the last years is high, while the geological and tectonic structures of this region are still not known in detail. Some local magnetic surveys have been conducted previously during 2004–2005. However, due to the lower accuracy of the used equipment and a limited number of stations, the qualities of the previous measurements are questionable for more interpretations. Thus a more detailed study to better characterize the geomagnetic anomaly -spatially and temporally- over this region and to deeply explore the related regional geology, tectonic and seismicity is needed. The intriguing geomagnetic anomalies over this island region vis-à-vis the socio-cultural situations lead to a study with a special aim to contribute to the assessment of the potential of natural hazards (earthquakes) as well as a new natural resource of energy (geothermal potential).
This study is intended to discuss several crucial questions, including:
i. The real values and the general pattern of magnetic anomalies over the island, as well as their relation to the regional one.
ii. Any temporal changes of regional anomalies over the recent time.
iii. The relationships between the anomalies and the geology and tectonic of this region, especially new insights that can be gained from the geomagnetic observations.
iv. The relationships between the anomalies and the high seismicity of this region, especially some possible links between their variations to the earthquake occurrence.
First, all available geomagnetic data of this region and results of the previous measurements are evaluated. The new geomagnetic surveys carried out in 2006 and 2007/2008 are then presented in detail, followed by the general description of data processing and data quality evaluation. The new results show the general pattern of contiguous negative-positive anomalies, revealing an active arc related subduction region. They agree with earlier results obtained by satellite, aeromagnetic, and marine platforms; and provide a much more detailed picture of the strong anomalies on this island. The temporal characteristics of regional anomalies show a decreasing strength of the dipolar structure, where decreasing of the field intensities is faster than the regional secular variations as defined by the global model (the 10th generation of IGRF). However, some exceptions (increasing of anomalies) have to be noted and further analyzed for several locations.
Thereafter, simultaneous magnetic anomalies and gravity models are generated and interpreted in detail. Three profiles are investigated, providing new insights into the tectonics and geological evolution of the Lombok Island. Geological structure of this island can be divided as two main parts with different consecutive ages: an old part (from late Oligocene to late Miocene) in the South and a younger one (from Pliocene to Holocene) in the North. A new subduction in the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) is considered mature and active, showing a tendency of progressive subduction during 2005–2008. Geothermal potential in the northern part of this island can be mapped in more detail using these geomagnetic regional survey data. The earlier estimates of reservoir depth can be confirmed further to a depth of about 800 m. Evaluation of temporal changes of the anomalies gives some possible explanations related to the evolution of the back arc region, large stress accumulations over the LSI region, a specific electrical characteristic of the crust of the Lombok Island region, and a structural discontinuity over this island.
Based on the results, several possible advanced studies involving geomagnetic data and anomaly investigations over the Lombok Island region can be suggested for the future:
i. Monitoring the subduction activity of the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) and the accumulated stress over the LSI, that could contribute to middle term hazard assessment with a special attention to the earthquake occurrence in this region. Continuous geomagnetic field measurements from a geomagnetic observatory which can be established in the northern part of the Lombok Island and systematic measurements at several repeat stations can be useful in this regards.
ii. Investigating the specific electrical characteristic (high conductivity) of the crust, that is probably related to some aquifer layers or metal mineralization. It needs other complementary geophysical methods, such as magnetotelluric (MT) or preferably DC resistivity measurements.
iii. Determining the existence of an active structural fault over the Lombok Island, that could be related to long term hazard assessment over the LSI region. This needs an extension of geomagnetic investigations over the neighbouring islands (the Bali Island in the West and the Sumbawa Island in the East; probably also the Sumba and the Flores islands). This seems possible because the regional magnetic lineations might be used to delineate some structural discontinuities, based on the modelling of contrasts in crustal magnetizations.
Centroid moment tensor inversion can provide insight into ongoing tectonic processes and active faults. In the Alpine mountains (central Europe), challenges result from low signal-to-noise ratios of earthquakes with small to moderate magnitudes and complex wave propagation effects through the heterogeneous crustal structure of the mountain belt. In this thesis, I make use of the temporary installation of the dense AlpArray seismic network (AASN) to establish a work flow to study seismic source processes and enhance the knowledge of the Alpine seismicity. The cumulative thesis comprises four publications on the topics of large seismic networks, seismic source processes in the Alps, their link to tectonics and stress field, and the inclusion of small magnitude earthquakes into studies of active faults.
Dealing with hundreds of stations of the dense AASN requires the automated assessment of data and metadata quality. I developed the open source toolbox AutoStatsQ to perform an automated data quality control. Its first application to the AlpArray seismic network has revealed significant errors of amplitude gains and sensor orientations. A second application of the orientation test to the Turkish KOERI network, based on Rayleigh wave polarization, further illustrated the potential in comparison to a P wave polarization method. Taking advantage of the gain and orientation results of the AASN, I tested different inversion settings and input data types to approach the specific challenges of centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversions in the Alps. A comparative study was carried out to define the best fitting procedures.
The application to 4 years of seismicity in the Alps (2016-2019) substantially enhanced the amount of moment tensor solutions in the region. We provide a list of moment tensors solutions down to magnitude Mw 3.1. Spatial patterns of typical focal mechanisms were analyzed in the seismotectonic context, by comparing them to long-term seismicity, historical earthquakes and observations of strain rates. Additionally, we use our MT solutions to investigate stress regimes and orientations along the Alpine chain. Finally, I addressed the challenge of including smaller magnitude events into the study of active faults and source processes. The open-source toolbox Clusty was developed for the clustering of earthquakes based on waveforms recorded across a network of seismic stations. The similarity of waveforms reflects both, the location and the similarity of source mechanisms. Therefore the clustering bears the opportunity to identify earthquakes of similar faulting styles, even when centroid moment tensor inversion is not possible due to low signal-to-noise ratios of surface waves or oversimplified velocity models. The toolbox is described through an application to the Zakynthos 2018 aftershock sequence and I subsequently discuss its potential application to weak earthquakes (Mw<3.1) in the Alps.
Both horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratios and the spatial autocorrelation method (SPAC) have proven to be valuable tools to gain insight into local site effects by ambient noise measurements. Here, the two methods are employed to assess the subsurface velocity structure at the Piano delle Concazze area on Mt Etna. Volcanic tremor records from an array of 26 broadband seismometers is processed and a strong variability of H/V ratios during periods of increased volcanic activity is found. From the spatial distribution of H/V peak frequencies, a geologic structure in the north-east of Piano delle Concazze is imaged which is interpreted as the Ellittico caldera rim. The method is extended to include both velocity data from the broadband stations and distributed acoustic sensing data from a co-located 1.5 km long fibre optic cable. High maximum amplitude values of the resulting ratios along the trajectory of the cable coincide with known faults. The outcome also indicates previously unmapped parts of a fault. The geologic interpretation is in good agreement with inversion results from magnetic survey data. Using the neighborhood algorithm, spatial autocorrelation curves obtained from the modified SPAC are inverted alone and jointly with the H/V peak frequencies for 1D shear wave velocity profiles. The obtained models are largely consistent with published models and were able to validate the results from the fibre optic cable.
This paper introduces a novel measure to assess similarity between event hydrographs. It is based on Cross Recurrence Plots and Recurrence Quantification Analysis which have recently gained attention in a range of disciplines when dealing with complex systems. The method attempts to quantify the event runoff dynamics and is based on the time delay embedded phase space representation of discharge hydrographs. A phase space trajectory is reconstructed from the event hydrograph, and pairs of hydrographs are compared to each other based on the distance of their phase space trajectories. Time delay embedding allows considering the multi-dimensional relationships between different points in time within the event. Hence, the temporal succession of discharge values is taken into account, such as the impact of the initial conditions on the runoff event. We provide an introduction to Cross Recurrence Plots and discuss their parameterization. An application example based on flood time series demonstrates how the method can be used to measure the similarity or dissimilarity of events, and how it can be used to detect events with rare runoff dynamics. It is argued that this methods provides a more comprehensive approach to quantify hydrograph similarity compared to conventional hydrological signatures.
Over the last decades, the Arctic regions of the earth have warmed at a rate 2–3 times faster than the global average– a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. A complex, non-linear interplay of physical processes and unique pecularities in the Arctic climate system is responsible for this, but the relative role of individual processes remains to be debated. This thesis focuses on the climate change and related processes on Svalbard, an archipelago in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic, which is shown to be a "hotspot" for the amplified recent warming during winter. In this highly dynamical region, both oceanic and atmospheric large-scale transports of heat and moisture interfere with spatially inhomogenous surface conditions, and the corresponding energy exchange strongly shapes the atmospheric boundary layer. In the first part, Pan-Svalbard gradients in the surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice extent (SIE) in the fjords are quantified and characterized. This analysis is based on observational data from meteorological stations, operational sea ice charts, and hydrographic observations from the adjacent ocean, which cover the 1980–2016 period. It is revealed that typical estimates of SIE during late winter range from 40–50% (80–90%) in the western (eastern) parts of Svalbard. However, strong SAT warming during winter of the order of 2–3K per decade dictates excessive ice loss, leaving fjords in the western parts essentially ice-free in recent winters. It is further demostrated that warm water currents on the west coast of Svalbard, as well as meridional winds contribute to regional differences in the SIE evolution. In particular, the proximity to warm water masses of the West Spitsbergen Current can explain 20–37% of SIE variability in fjords on west Svalbard, while meridional winds and associated ice drift may regionally explain 20–50% of SIE variability in the north and northeast. Strong SAT warming has overruled these impacts in recent years, though.
In the next part of the analysis, the contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes to the Svalbard temperature development over the last 20 years is investigated. A study employing kinematic air-back trajectories for Ny-Ålesund reveals a shift in the source regions of lower-troposheric air over time for both the winter and the summer season. In winter, air in the recent decade is more often of lower-latitude Atlantic origin, and less frequent of Arctic origin. This affects heat- and moisture advection towards Svalbard, potentially manipulating clouds and longwave downward radiation in that region. A closer investigation indicates that this shift during winter is associated with a strengthened Ural blocking high and Icelandic low, and contributes about 25% to the observed winter warming on Svalbard over the last 20 years. Conversely, circulation changes during summer include a strengthened Greenland blocking high which leads to more frequent cold air advection from the central Arctic towards Svalbard, and less frequent air mass origins in the lower latitudes of the North Atlantic. Hence, circulation changes during winter are shown to have an amplifying effect on the recent warming on Svalbard, while summer circulation changes tend to mask warming.
An observational case study using upper air soundings from the AWIPEV research station in Ny-Ålesund during May–June 2017 underlines that such circulation changes during summer are associated with tropospheric anomalies in temperature, humidity and boundary layer height.
In the last part of the analysis, the regional representativeness of the above described changes around Svalbard for the broader Arctic is investigated. Therefore, the terms in the diagnostic temperature equation in the Arctic-wide lower troposphere are examined for the Era-Interim atmospheric reanalysis product. Significant positive trends in diabatic heating rates, consistent with latent heat transfer to the atmosphere over regions of increasing ice melt, are found for all seasons over the Barents/Kara Seas, and in individual months in the vicinity of Svalbard. The above introduced warm (cold) advection trends during winter (summer) on Svalbard are successfully reproduced. Regarding winter, they are regionally confined to the Barents Sea and Fram Strait, between 70°–80°N, resembling a unique feature in the whole Arctic. Summer cold advection trends are confined to the area between eastern Greenland and Franz Josef Land, enclosing Svalbard.