86-XX GEOPHYSICS [See also 76U05, 76V05]
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The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) has identified river morphological alteration and diffuse pollution as the two main pressures affecting water bodies in Europe at the catchment scale. Consequently, river restoration has become a priority to achieve the WFD's objective of good ecological status. However, little is known about the effects of stream morphological changes, such as re-meandering, on in-stream nitrate retention at the river network scale. Therefore, catchment nitrate modeling is necessary to guide the implementation of spatially targeted and cost-effective mitigation measures. Meanwhile, Germany, like many other regions in central Europe, has experienced consecutive summer droughts from 2015-2018, resulting in significant changes in river nitrate concentrations in various catchments. However, the mechanistic exploration of catchment nitrate responses to changing weather conditions is still lacking.
Firstly, a fully distributed, process-based catchment Nitrate model (mHM-Nitrate) was used, which was properly calibrated and comprehensively evaluated at numerous spatially distributed nitrate sampling locations. Three calibration schemes were designed, taking into account land use, stream order, and mean nitrate concentrations, and they varied in spatial coverage but used data from the same period (2011–2019). The model performance for discharge was similar among the three schemes, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) scores ranging from 0.88 to 0.92. However, for nitrate concentrations, scheme 2 outperformed schemes 1 and 3 when compared to observed data from eight gauging stations. This was likely because scheme 2 incorporated a diverse range of data, including low discharge values and nitrate concentrations, and thus provided a better representation of within-catchment heterogenous. Therefore, the study suggests that strategically selecting gauging stations that reflect the full range of within-catchment heterogeneity is more important for calibration than simply increasing the number of stations.
Secondly, the mHM-Nitrate model was used to reveal the causal relations between sequential droughts and nitrate concentration in the Bode catchment (3200 km2) in central Germany, where stream nitrate concentrations exhibited contrasting trends from upstream to downstream reaches. The model was evaluated using data from six gauging stations, reflecting different levels of runoff components and their associated nitrate-mixing from upstream to downstream. Results indicated that the mHM-Nitrate model reproduced dynamics of daily discharge and nitrate concentration well, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ≥ 0.73 for discharge and Kling-Gupta Efficiency ≥ 0.50 for nitrate concentration at most stations. Particularly, the spatially contrasting trends of nitrate concentration were successfully captured by the model. The decrease of nitrate concentration in the lowland area in drought years (2015-2018) was presumably due to (1) limited terrestrial export loading (ca. 40% lower than that of normal years 2004-2014), and (2) increased in-stream retention efficiency (20% higher in summer within the whole river network). From a mechanistic modelling perspective, this study provided insights into spatially heterogeneous flow and nitrate dynamics and effects of sequential droughts, which shed light on water-quality responses to future climate change, as droughts are projected to be more frequent.
Thirdly, this study investigated the effects of stream restoration via re-meandering on in-stream nitrate retention at network-scale in the well-monitored Bode catchment. The mHM-Nitrate model showed good performance in reproducing daily discharge and nitrate concentrations, with median Kling-Gupta values of 0.78 and 0.74, respectively. The mean and standard deviation of gross nitrate retention efficiency, which accounted for both denitrification and assimilatory uptake, were 5.1 ± 0.61% and 74.7 ± 23.2% in winter and summer, respectively, within the stream network. The study found that in the summer, denitrification rates were about two times higher in lowland sub-catchments dominated by agricultural lands than in mountainous sub-catchments dominated by forested areas, with median ± SD of 204 ± 22.6 and 102 ± 22.1 mg N m-2 d-1, respectively. Similarly, assimilatory uptake rates were approximately five times higher in streams surrounded by lowland agricultural areas than in those in higher-elevation, forested areas, with median ± SD of 200 ± 27.1 and 39.1 ± 8.7 mg N m-2 d-1, respectively. Therefore, restoration strategies targeting lowland agricultural areas may have greater potential for increasing nitrate retention. The study also found that restoring stream sinuosity could increase net nitrate retention efficiency by up to 25.4 ± 5.3%, with greater effects seen in small streams. These results suggest that restoration efforts should consider augmenting stream sinuosity to increase nitrate retention and decrease nitrate concentrations at the catchment scale.
The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second-largest mass of ice on Earth. Being almost 2000 km long, more than 700 km wide, and more than 3 km thick at the summit, it holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 7m if melted completely. Despite its massive size, it is particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change: temperatures over the Greenland Ice Sheet have increased by more than 2.7◦C in the past 30 years, twice as much as the global mean temperature. Consequently, the ice sheet has been significantly losing mass since the 1980s and the rate of loss has increased sixfold since then. Moreover, it is one of the potential tipping elements of the Earth System, which might undergo irreversible change once a warming threshold is exceeded. This thesis aims at extending the understanding of the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming by analyzing processes and feedbacks relevant to its centennial to multi-millennial stability using ice sheet modeling.
One of these feedbacks, the melt-elevation-feedback is driven by the temperature rise with decreasing altitudes: As the ice sheet melts, its thickness and surface elevation decrease, exposing the ice surface to warmer air and thus increasing the melt rates even further. The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) can partly mitigate this melt-elevation feedback as the bedrock lifts in response to an ice load decrease, forming the negative GIA feedback. In my thesis, I show that the interaction between these two competing feedbacks can lead to qualitatively different dynamical responses of the Greenland Ice Sheet to warming – from permanent loss to incomplete recovery, depending on the feedback parameters. My research shows that the interaction of those feedbacks can initiate self-sustained oscillations of the ice volume while the climate forcing remains constant.
Furthermore, the increased surface melt changes the optical properties of the snow or ice surface, e.g. by lowering their albedo, which in turn enhances melt rates – a process known as the melt-albedo feedback. Process-based ice sheet models often neglect this melt-albedo feedback. To close this gap, I implemented a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model, a computationally efficient approach that can capture the first-order effects of the melt-albedo feedback, into the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Using the coupled model, I show in warming experiments that the melt-albedo feedback almost doubles the ice loss until the year 2300 under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP2.6, compared to simulations where the melt-albedo feedback is neglected,
and adds up to 58% additional ice loss under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Moreover, I find that the melt-albedo feedback dominates the ice loss until 2300, compared to the melt-elevation feedback.
Another process that could influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the warming induced softening of the ice and the resulting increase in flow. In my thesis, I show with PISM how the uncertainty in Glen’s flow law impacts the simulated response to warming. In a flow line setup at fixed climatic mass balance, the uncertainty in flow parameters leads to a range of ice loss comparable to the range caused by different warming levels.
While I focus on fundamental processes, feedbacks, and their interactions in the first three projects of my thesis, I also explore the impact of specific climate scenarios on the sea level rise contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To increase the carbon budget flexibility, some warming scenarios – while still staying within the limits of the Paris Agreement – include a temporal overshoot of global warming. I show that an overshoot by 0.4◦C increases the short-term and long-term ice loss from Greenland by several centimeters. The long-term increase is driven by the warming at high latitudes, which persists even when global warming is reversed. This leads to a substantial long-term commitment of the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Overall, in my thesis I show that the melt-albedo feedback is most relevant for the ice loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet on centennial timescales. In contrast, the melt-elevation feedback and its interplay with the GIA feedback become increasingly relevant on millennial timescales. All of these influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming, in the near future and on the long term.
In this dissertation, I describe the mechanisms involved in magmatic plumbing system establishment and evolution. Magmatic plumbing systems play a key role in determining volcanic activity style and recognizing its complexities can help in forecasting eruptions, especially within hazardous volcanic systems such as calderas. I explore the mechanisms of dike emplacement and intrusion geometry that shape magmatic plumbing systems beneath caldera-like topographies and how their characteristics relate to precursory activity of a volcanic eruption. For this purpose, I use scaled laboratory models to study the effect of stress field reorientation on a propagating dike induced by caldera topography. I construct these models by using solid gelatin to mimic the elastic properties of the earth's crust with a caldera on the surface. I inject water as the magma analog and track the evolution of the experiments through qualitative (geometry and stress evolution) and quantitative (displacement and strain computation) descriptions. The results show that a vertical dike deviates towards and outside of the caldera-like margin due to stress field reorientation beneath the caldera-like topography. The propagating intrusion forms a circumferential-eruptive dike when the caldera-like size is small, whereas a cone sheet develops beneath the large caldera-like topography.
To corroborate the results obtained from the experimental models, this thesis also describes the results of a case study utilizing seismic monitoring data associated with the unrest period of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano. Lascar has a crater with a small-scale caldera-like topography and exhibited long-lasting anomalous evolution of the number of long-period (LP) events preceding the 2015 eruption. I apply seismic techniques to constrain the hypocentral locations of LP events and characterize their spatial distribution, obtaining an image of Lascar's plumbing system. I observe an agreement in shallow hypocentral locations obtained through four different seismic techniques; nevertheless, the cross-correlation technique provides the best results. These results depict a plumbing system with a narrow sub-vertical deep conduit and a shallow hydrothermal system, where most LP events are located. These two regions are connected through an intermediate region of path divergence, whose geometry and orientation likely is influenced by stress reorientation due to topographic effects of the caldera-like crater.
Finally, in order to further enhance the interpretations of the previous case study, the seismic data was analyzed in tandem with a complementary multiparametric monitoring dataset. This complementary study confirms that the anomalous LP activity occurred as a sign of unrest in the preparatory phase of the phreatic eruption. In addition, I show how changes observed in other monitored parameters enabled to detect further signs of unrest in the shallow hydrothermal system. Overall, this study demonstrates that detecting complex geometric regions within plumbing systems beneath volcanoes is fundamental to produce an effective forecast of eruptions that from a first view seem to occur without any precursory activity.
Furthermore, through the development of this research I show that combining methods that include both observations and models allows one to obtain a more precise interpretation of the volcanic processes.
This paper introduces a novel measure to assess similarity between event hydrographs. It is based on Cross Recurrence Plots and Recurrence Quantification Analysis which have recently gained attention in a range of disciplines when dealing with complex systems. The method attempts to quantify the event runoff dynamics and is based on the time delay embedded phase space representation of discharge hydrographs. A phase space trajectory is reconstructed from the event hydrograph, and pairs of hydrographs are compared to each other based on the distance of their phase space trajectories. Time delay embedding allows considering the multi-dimensional relationships between different points in time within the event. Hence, the temporal succession of discharge values is taken into account, such as the impact of the initial conditions on the runoff event. We provide an introduction to Cross Recurrence Plots and discuss their parameterization. An application example based on flood time series demonstrates how the method can be used to measure the similarity or dissimilarity of events, and how it can be used to detect events with rare runoff dynamics. It is argued that this methods provides a more comprehensive approach to quantify hydrograph similarity compared to conventional hydrological signatures.