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In September 2017, the IceCube Neutrino Observatory recorded a very-high-energy neutrino in directional coincidence with a blazar in an unusually bright gamma-ray state, TXS0506 + 056 (refs(1,2)). Blazars are prominent photon sources in the Universe because they harbour a relativistic jet whose radiation is strongly collimated and amplified. High-energy atomic nuclei known as cosmic rays can produce neutrinos; thus, the recent detection may help in identifying the sources of the diffuse neutrino flux(3) and the energetic cosmic rays. Here we report a self-consistent analysis of the physical relation between the observed neutrino and the blazar, in particular the time evolution and spectral behaviour of neutrino and photon emission. We demonstrate that a moderate enhancement in the number of cosmic rays during the flare can yield a very strong increase in the neutrino flux, which is limited by co-produced hard X-rays and teraelectronvolt gamma rays. We also test typical radiation models(4,5) for compatibility and identify several model classes(6,7) as incompatible with the observations. We investigate to what degree the findings can be generalized to the entire population of blazars, determine the relation between their output in photons, neutrinos and cosmic rays, and suggest how to optimize the strategy of future observations.
We study the frequently used assumption in multi-messenger astrophysics that the gamma-ray and neutrino fluxes are directly connected because they are assumed to be produced by the same photohadronic production chain. An interesting candidate source for this test is the flat-spectrum radio quasar PKS B1424-418, which recently called attention to a potential correlation between an IceCube PeV neutrino event and its burst phase. We simulate both the multi-waveband photon and the neutrino emission from this source using a self-consistent radiation model. We demonstrate that a simple hadronic model cannot adequately describe the spectral energy distribution for this source, but a lepto-hadronic model with a subdominant hadronic component can reproduce the multi-waveband photon spectrum observed during various activity phases of the blazar. As a conclusion, up to about 0.3 neutrino events may coincide with the burst, which implies that the leptonic contribution dominates in the relevant energy band. We also demonstrate that the time-wise correlation between the neutrino event and burst phase is weak.