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Introducing the CTA concept
(2013)
The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is a new observatory for very high-energy (VHE) gamma rays. CTA has ambitions science goals, for which it is necessary to achieve full-sky coverage, to improve the sensitivity by about an order of magnitude, to span about four decades of energy, from a few tens of GeV to above 100 TeV with enhanced angular and energy resolutions over existing VHE gamma-ray observatories. An international collaboration has formed with more than 1000 members from 27 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and North and South America. In 2010 the CTA Consortium completed a Design Study and started a three-year Preparatory Phase which leads to production readiness of CTA in 2014. In this paper we introduce the science goals and the concept of CTA, and provide an overview of the project.
We report on the gamma-ray activity of the blazar Mrk 501 during the first 480 days of Fermi operation. We find that the average Large Area Telescope (LAT) gamma-ray spectrum of Mrk 501 can be well described by a single power-law function with a photon index of 1.78 +/- 0.03. While we observe relatively mild flux variations with the Fermi-LAT (within less than a factor of two), we detect remarkable spectral variability where the hardest observed spectral index within the LAT energy range is 1.52 +/- 0.14, and the softest one is 2.51 +/- 0.20. These unexpected spectral changes do not correlate with the measured flux variations above 0.3 GeV. In this paper, we also present the first results from the 4.5 month long multifrequency campaign (2009 March 15-August 1) on Mrk 501, which included the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA), Swift, RXTE, MAGIC, and VERITAS, the F-GAMMA, GASP-WEBT, and other collaborations and instruments which provided excellent temporal and energy coverage of the source throughout the entire campaign. The extensive radio to TeV data set from this campaign provides us with the most detailed spectral energy distribution yet collected for this source during its relatively low activity. The average spectral energy distribution of Mrk 501 is well described by the standard one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model. In the framework of this model, we find that the dominant emission region is characterized by a size less than or similar to 0.1 pc (comparable within a factor of few to the size of the partially resolved VLBA core at 15-43 GHz), and that the total jet power (similar or equal to 10(44) erg s(-1)) constitutes only a small fraction (similar to 10(-3)) of the Eddington luminosity. The energy distribution of the freshly accelerated radiating electrons required to fit the time-averaged data has a broken power-law form in the energy range 0.3 GeV-10 TeV, with spectral indices 2.2 and 2.7 below and above the break energy of 20 GeV. We argue that such a form is consistent with a scenario in which the bulk of the energy dissipation within the dominant emission zone of Mrk 501 is due to relativistic, proton-mediated shocks. We find that the ultrarelativistic electrons and mildly relativistic protons within the blazar zone, if comparable in number, are in approximate energy equipartition, with their energy dominating the jet magnetic field energy by about two orders of magnitude.
The 2010 very high energy gamma-ray flare and 10 years ofmulti-wavelength oservations of M 87
(2012)
The giant radio galaxy M 87 with its proximity (16 Mpc), famous jet, and very massive black hole ((3-6) x 10(9) M-circle dot) provides a unique opportunity to investigate the origin of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission generated in relativistic outflows and the surroundings of supermassive black holes. M 87 has been established as a VHE gamma-ray emitter since 2006. The VHE gamma-ray emission displays strong variability on timescales as short as a day. In this paper, results from a joint VHE monitoring campaign on M 87 by the MAGIC and VERITAS instruments in 2010 are reported. During the campaign, a flare at VHE was detected triggering further observations at VHE (H.E.S.S.), X-rays (Chandra), and radio (43 GHz Very Long Baseline Array, VLBA). The excellent sampling of the VHE gamma-ray light curve enables one to derive a precise temporal characterization of the flare: the single, isolated flare is well described by a two-sided exponential function with significantly different flux rise and decay times of tau(rise)(d) = (1.69 +/- 0.30) days and tau(decay)(d) = (0.611 +/- 0.080) days, respectively. While the overall variability pattern of the 2010 flare appears somewhat different from that of previous VHE flares in 2005 and 2008, they share very similar timescales (similar to day), peak fluxes (Phi(>0.35 TeV) similar or equal to (1-3) x 10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1)), and VHE spectra. VLBA radio observations of 43 GHz of the inner jet regions indicate no enhanced flux in 2010 in contrast to observations in 2008, where an increase of the radio flux of the innermost core regions coincided with a VHE flare. On the other hand, Chandra X-ray observations taken similar to 3 days after the peak of the VHE gamma-ray emission reveal an enhanced flux from the core (flux increased by factor similar to 2; variability timescale <2 days). The long-term (2001-2010) multi-wavelength (MWL) light curve of M 87, spanning from radio to VHE and including data from Hubble Space Telescope, Liverpool Telescope, Very Large Array, and European VLBI Network, is used to further investigate the origin of the VHE gamma-ray emission. No unique, common MWL signature of the three VHE flares has been identified. In the outer kiloparsec jet region, in particular in HST-1, no enhanced MWL activity was detected in 2008 and 2010, disfavoring it as the origin of the VHE flares during these years. Shortly after two of the three flares (2008 and 2010), the X-ray core was observed to be at a higher flux level than its characteristic range (determined from more than 60 monitoring observations: 2002-2009). In 2005, the strong flux dominance of HST-1 could have suppressed the detection of such a feature. Published models for VHE gamma-ray emission from M 87 are reviewed in the light of the new data.
VERITAS and Fermi-LAT Observations of TeV Gamma-Ray Sources Discovered by HAWC in the 2HWC Catalog
(2018)
The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) collaboration recently published their 2HWC catalog, listing 39 very high energy (VHE; >100 GeV) gamma-ray sources based on 507 days of observation. Among these, 19 sources are not associated with previously known teraelectronvolt (TeV) gamma-ray sources. We have studied 14 of these sources without known counterparts with VERITAS and Fermi-LAT. VERITAS detected weak gamma-ray emission in the 1 TeV-30 TeV band in the region of DA 495, a pulsar wind nebula coinciding with 2HWC J1953+294, confirming the discovery of the source by HAWC. We did not find any counterpart for the selected 14 new HAWC sources from our analysis of Fermi-LAT data for energies higher than 10 GeV. During the search, we detected gigaelectronvolt (GeV) gamma-ray emission coincident with a known TeV pulsar wind nebula, SNR G54.1+0.3 (VER J1930+188), and a 2HWC source, 2HWC J1930+188. The fluxes for isolated, steady sources in the 2HWC catalog are generally in good agreement with those measured by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. However, the VERITAS fluxes for SNR G54.1+0.3, DA 495, and TeV J2032+4130 are lower than those measured by HAWC, and several new HAWC sources are not detected by VERITAS. This is likely due to a change in spectral shape, source extension, or the influence of diffuse emission in the source region.
Observations of the young supernova remnant RX J1713.7-3946 with the fermi large area telescope
(2011)
We present observations of the young supernova remnant (SNR) RX J1713.7-3946 with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). We clearly detect a source positionally coincident with the SNR. The source is extended with a best-fit extension of 0 degrees.55 +/- 0 degrees.04 matching the size of the non-thermal X-ray and TeV gamma-ray emission from the remnant. The positional coincidence and the matching extended emission allow us to identify the LAT source with SNR RX J1713.7-3946. The spectrum of the source can be described by a very hard power law with a photon index of Gamma = 1.5 +/- 0.1 that coincides in normalization with the steeper H. E. S. S.-detected gamma-ray spectrum at higher energies. The broadband gamma-ray emission is consistent with a leptonic origin as the dominant mechanism for the gamma-ray emission.
A catalog of genetic loci associated with kidney function from analyses of a million individuals
(2019)
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is responsible for a public health burden with multi-systemic complications. Through transancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and independent replication (n = 1,046,070), we identified 264 associated loci (166 new). Of these,147 were likely to be relevant for kidney function on the basis of associations with the alternative kidney function marker blood urea nitrogen (n = 416,178). Pathway and enrichment analyses, including mouse models with renal phenotypes, support the kidney as the main target organ. A genetic risk score for lower eGFR was associated with clinically diagnosed CKD in 452,264 independent individuals. Colocalization analyses of associations with eGFR among 783,978 European-ancestry individuals and gene expression across 46 human tissues, including tubulo-interstitial and glomerular kidney compartments, identified 17 genes differentially expressed in kidney. Fine-mapping highlighted missense driver variants in 11 genes and kidney-specific regulatory variants. These results provide a comprehensive priority list of molecular targets for translational research.
We report on very high energy (E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray observations of V407 Cygni, a symbiotic binary that underwent a nova outburst producing 0.1-10 GeV gamma rays during 2010 March 10-26. Observations were made with the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System during 2010 March 19-26 at relatively large zenith angles due to the position of V407 Cyg. An improved reconstruction technique for large zenith angle observations is presented and used to analyze the data. We do not detect V407 Cygni and place a differential upper limit on the flux at 1.6 TeV of 2.3 x 10(-12) erg cm(-2) s(-1) (at the 95% confidence level). When considered jointly with data from Fermi-LAT, this result places limits on the acceleration of very high energy particles in the nova.
We present the results of a joint observational campaign between the Green Bank radio telescope and the VERITAS gamma-ray telescope, which searched for a correlation between the emission of very-high-energy (VHE) gamma rays (E-gamma > 150 GeV) and giant radio pulses (GRPs) from the Crab pulsar at 8.9 GHz. A total of 15,366 GRPs were recorded during 11.6 hr of simultaneous observations, which were made across four nights in 2008 December and in 2009 November and December. We searched for an enhancement of the pulsed gamma-ray emission within time windows placed around the arrival time of the GRP events. In total, eight different time windows with durations ranging from 0.033 ms to 72 s were positioned at three different locations relative to the GRP to search for enhanced gamma-ray emission which lagged, led, or was concurrent with, the GRP event. Furthermore, we performed separate searches on main pulse GRPs and interpulse GRPs and on the most energetic GRPs in our data sample. No significant enhancement of pulsed VHE emission was found in any of the preformed searches. We set upper limits of 5-10 times the average VHE flux of the Crab pulsar on the flux simultaneous with interpulse GRPs on single-rotation-period timescales. On similar to 8 s timescales around interpulse GRPs, we set an upper limit of 2-3 times the average VHE flux. Within the framework of recent models for pulsed VHE emission from the Crab pulsar, the expected VHE-GRP emission correlations are below the derived limits.
We report on the discovery of high-energy (HE; E > 0.1 GeV) and very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from the high-frequency-peaked BL Lac object RBS 0413. VERITAS, a ground-based gamma-ray observatory, detected VHE. rays from RBS 0413 with a statistical significance of 5.5 standard deviations (sigma) and a gamma-ray flux of (1.5 +/- 0.6(stat) +/- 0.7(syst)) x 10(-8) photons m(-2) s(-1) (similar to 1% of the Crab Nebula flux) above 250 GeV. The observed spectrum can be described by a power law with a photon index of 3.18 +/- 0.68(stat) +/- 0.30(syst). Contemporaneous observations with the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope detected HE gamma rays from RBS 0413 with a (stat)istical significance of more than 9 sigma, a power-law photon index of 1.57 +/- 0.12(stat-0.12sys')(+0.11) and a gamma-ray flux between 300 MeV and 300 GeV of (1.64 +/- 0.43(stat-0.22sys)(+ 0.31)) x 10(-5) photons m(-2) s(-1). We present the results from Fermi-LAT and VERITAS, including a spectral energy distribution modeling of the gamma-ray, quasi-simultaneous X-ray (Swift-XRT), ultraviolet (Swift-UVOT), and R-band optical (MDM) data. We find that, if conditions close to equipartition are required, both the combined synchrotron self-Compton/external-Compton and the lepto-hadronic models are preferred over a pure synchrotron self-Compton model.
The VERITAS array of Cherenkov telescopes has carried out a deep observational program on the nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxy Segue 1. We report on the results of nearly 48 hours of good quality selected data, taken between January 2010 and May 2011. No significant gamma-ray emission is detected at the nominal position of Segue 1, and upper limits on the integrated flux are derived. According to recent studies, Segue 1 is the most dark matter-dominated dwarf spheroidal galaxy currently known. We derive stringent bounds on various annihilating and decaying dark matter particle models. The upper limits on the velocity-weighted annihilation cross-section are <sigma upsilon >(95%) (CL) less than or similar to 10(-23) cm(3) s(-1), improving our limits from previous observations of dwarf spheroidal galaxies by at least a factor of 2 for dark matter particle masses m(chi) greater than or similar to 300 GeV. The lower limits on the decay lifetime are at the level of tau(95%) (CL) greater than or similar to 10(24) s. Finally, we address the interpretation of the cosmic ray lepton anomalies measured by ATIC and PAMELA in terms of dark matter annihilation, and show that the VERITAS observations of Segue 1 disfavor such a scenario.
We report the discovery of TeV gamma-ray emission coincident with the shell-type radio supernova remnant (SNR) CTA 1 using the VERITAS gamma-ray observatory. The source, VER J0006+729, was detected as a 6.5 standard deviation excess over background and shows an extended morphology, approximated by a two-dimensional Gaussian of semimajor (semiminor) axis 0.degrees 30 (0.degrees 24) and a centroid 5’ from the Fermi gamma-ray pulsar PSR J0007+7303 and its X-ray pulsar wind nebula (PWN). The photon spectrum is well described by a power-law dN/dE = N-0(E/3 TeV)(-Gamma), with a differential spectral index of Gamma = 2.2 +/- 0.2(stat) +/- 0.3(sys), and normalization N-0 = (9.1 +/- 1.3(stat) +/- 1.7(sys)) x 10(-14) cm(-2) s(-1) TeV-1. The integral flux, F-gamma = 4.0 x 10(-12) erg cm(-2) s(-1) above 1 TeV, corresponds to 0.2% of the pulsar spin-down power at 1.4 kpc. The energetics, colocation with the SNR, and the relatively small extent of the TeV emission strongly argue for the PWN origin of the TeV photons. We consider the origin of the TeV emission in CTA 1.
Observations of radio halos and relics in galaxy clusters indicate efficient electron acceleration. Protons should likewise be accelerated and, on account of weak energy losses, can accumulate, suggesting that clusters may also be sources of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission. We report here on VHE gamma-ray observations of the Coma galaxy cluster with the VERITAS array of imaging Cerenkov telescopes, with complementing Fermi Large Area Telescope observations at GeV energies. No significant gamma-ray emission from the Coma Cluster was detected. Integral flux upper limits at the 99% confidence level were measured to be on the order of (2-5) x 10(-8) photonsm(-2) s(-1) (VERITAS, >220 GeV) and similar to 2 x 10(-6) photonsm(-2) s(-1) (Fermi, 1-3GeV), respectively. We use the gamma-ray upper limits to constrain cosmic rays (CRs) and magnetic fields in Coma. Using an analytical approach, the CR-to-thermal pressure ratio is constrained to be < 16% from VERITAS data and <1.7% from Fermi data (averaged within the virial radius). These upper limits are starting to constrain the CR physics in self-consistent cosmological cluster simulations and cap the maximum CR acceleration efficiency at structure formation shocks to be <50%. Alternatively, this may argue for non-negligible CR transport processes such as CR streaming and diffusion into the outer cluster regions. Assuming that the radio-emitting electrons of the Coma halo result from hadronic CR interactions, the observations imply a lower limit on the central magnetic field in Coma of similar to(2-5.5) mu G, depending on the radial magnetic field profile and on the gamma-ray spectral index. Since these values are below those inferred by Faraday rotation measurements in Coma (for most of the parameter space), this renders the hadronic model a very plausible explanation of the Coma radio halo. Finally, since galaxy clusters are dark matter (DM) dominated, the VERITAS upper limits have been used to place constraints on the thermally averaged product of the total self-annihilation cross section and the relative velocity of the DM particles, <sigma nu >.
We report the discovery of an unidentified, extended source of very-high-energy gamma-ray emission, VER J2019+407, within the radio shell of the supernova remnant SNR G78.2+2.1, using 21.4 hr of data taken by the VERITAS gamma-ray observatory in 2009. These data confirm the preliminary indications of gamma-ray emission previously seen in a two-year (2007-2009) blind survey of the Cygnus region by VERITAS. VER J2019+407, which is detected at a post-trials significance of 7.5 standard deviations in the 2009 data, is localized to the northwestern rim of the remnant in a region of enhanced radio and X-ray emission. It has an intrinsic extent of 0 degrees.23 +/- 0 degrees.03(stat-0 degrees.02sys)(+0 degrees.04) and its spectrum is well-characterized by a differential power law (dN/dE = N-0 x (E/TeV)-Gamma) with a photon index of Gamma = 2.37 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and a flux normalization of N-0 = 1.5 +/- 0.2(stat) +/- 0.4(sys) x 10(-12) photon TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1). This yields an integral flux of 5.2 +/- 0.8(stat) +/- 1.4(sys) x 10(-12) photon cm(-2) s(-1) above 320 GeV, corresponding to 3.7% of the Crab Nebula flux. We consider the relationship of the TeV gamma-ray emission with the GeV gamma-ray emission seen from SNR G78.2+2.1 as well as that seen from a nearby cocoon of freshly accelerated cosmic rays. Multiple scenarios are considered as possible origins for the TeV gamma-ray emission, including hadronic particle acceleration at the SNR shock.
The origin of Galactic cosmic rays is a century-long puzzle. Indirect evidence points to their acceleration by supernova shockwaves, but we know little of their escape from the shock and their evolution through the turbulent medium surrounding massive stars. Gamma rays can probe their spreading through the ambient gas and radiation fields. The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has observed the star-forming region of Cygnus X. The 1- to 100-gigaelectronvolt images reveal a 50-parsec-wide cocoon of freshly accelerated cosmic rays that flood the cavities carved by the stellar winds and ionization fronts from young stellar clusters. It provides an example to study the youth of cosmic rays in a superbubble environment before they merge into the older Galactic population.
Multiwavelength observations of the AGN 1ES 0414+009 with veritas, FERMI-LAT, SWIFT-XRT, AND MDM
(2012)
We present observations of the BL Lac object 1ES 0414+009 in the >200 GeV gamma-ray band by the VERITAS array of Cherenkov telescopes. 1ES 0414+009 was observed by VERITAS between 2008 January and 2011 February, resulting in 56.2 hr of good quality pointed observations. These observations resulted in a detection of 822 events from the source corresponding to a statistical significance of 6.4 standard deviations (6.4 sigma) above the background. The source flux, showing no evidence for variability, is measured as (5.2 +/- 1.1(stat) +/- 2.6(sys)) x 10(-12) photons cm(-2) s(-1) above 200 GeV, equivalent to approximately 2% of the Crab Nebula flux above this energy. The differential photon spectrum from 230 GeV to 850 GeV is well fit by a power law with a photon index of Gamma = 3.4 +/- 0.5(stat) +/- 0.3(sys) and a flux normalization of (1.6 +/- 0.3(stat) +/- 0.8(sys)) x 10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1) at 300 GeV. We also present multiwavelength results taken in the optical (MDM), x-ray (Swift-XRT), and GeV (Fermi-LAT) bands and use these results to construct a broadband spectral energy distribution (SED). Modeling of this SED indicates that homogenous one-zone leptonic scenarios are not adequate to describe emission from the system, with a lepto-hadronic model providing a better fit to the data.
As the oldest known magnetic material, magnetite (Fe3O4) has fascinated mankind for millennia. As the first oxide in which a relationship between electrical conductivity and fluctuating/localized electronic order was shown(1), magnetite represents a model system for understanding correlated oxides in general. Nevertheless, the exact mechanism of the insulator-metal, or Verwey, transition has long remained inaccessible(2-8). Recently, three- Fe- site lattice distortions called trimeronswere identified as the characteristic building blocks of the low-temperature insulating electronically ordered phase(9). Here we investigate the Verwey transition with pump- probe X- ray diffraction and optical reflectivity techniques, and show how trimerons become mobile across the insulator-metal transition. We find this to be a two- step process. After an initial 300 fs destruction of individual trimerons, phase separation occurs on a 1.5 +/- 0.2 ps timescale to yield residual insulating and metallic regions. This work establishes the speed limit for switching in future oxide electronics(10).
We report on VERITAS very high energy (VHE; E >= 100 GeV) observations of six blazars selected from the Fermi Large Area Telescope First Source Catalog (1FGL). The gamma-ray emission from 1FGL sources was extrapolated up to the VHE band, taking gamma-ray absorption by the extragalactic background light into account. This allowed the selection of six bright, hard-spectrum blazars that were good candidate TeV emitters. Spectroscopic redshift measurements were attempted with the Keck Telescope for the targets without Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic data. No VHE emission is detected during the observations of the six sources described here. Corresponding TeV upper limits are presented, along with contemporaneous Fermi observations and non-concurrent Swift UVOT and X-Ray Telescope data. The blazar broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) are assembled and modeled with a single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model. The SED built for each of the six blazars shows a synchrotron peak bordering between the intermediate-and high-spectrum-peak classifications, with four of the six resulting in particle-dominated emission regions.
Supernova remnants (SNRs) are among the most important targets for gamma-ray observatories. Being prominent non-thermal sources, they are very likely responsible for the acceleration of the bulk of Galactic cosmic rays (CRS). To firmly establish the SNR paradigm for the origin of cosmic rays, it should be confirmed that protons are indeed accelerated in, and released from, SNRs with the appropriate flux and spectrum. This can be done by detailed theoretical models which account for microphysics of acceleration and various radiation processes of hadrons and leptons. The current generation of Cherenkov telescopes has insufficient sensitivity to constrain theoretical models. A new facility, the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), will have superior capabilities and may finally resolve this long standing issue of high-energy astrophysics. We want to assess the capabilities of CTA to reveal the physics of various types of SNRs in the initial 2000 years of their evolution. During this time, the efficiency to accelerate cosmic rays is highest. We perform time-dependent simulations of the hydrodynamics, the magnetic fields, the cosmic-ray acceleration, and the non-thermal emission for type Ia, Ic and IIP SNRs. We calculate the CTA response to the y-ray emission from these SNRs for various ages and distances, and we perform a realistic analysis of the simulated data. We derive distance limits for the detectability and resolvability of these SNR types at several ages. We test the ability of CTA to reconstruct their morphological and spectral parameters as a function of their distance. Finally, we estimate how well CTA data will constrain the theoretical models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Prospects for Cherenkov Telescope Array Observations of the Young Supernova Remnant RX J1713.7-3946
(2017)
We perform simulations for future Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) observations of RX J1713.7-3946, a young supernova remnant (SNR) and one of the brightest sources ever discovered in very high energy (VHE) gamma rays. Special attention is paid to exploring possible spatial (anti) correlations of gamma rays with emission at other wavelengths, in particular X-rays and CO/H I emission. We present a series of simulated images of RX J1713.7-3946 for CTA based on a set of observationally motivated models for the gamma-ray emission. In these models, VHE gamma rays produced by high-energy electrons are assumed to trace the nonthermal X-ray emission observed by XMM-Newton, whereas those originating from relativistic protons delineate the local gas distributions. The local atomic and molecular gas distributions are deduced by the NANTEN team from CO and H I observations. Our primary goal is to show how one can distinguish the emission mechanism(s) of the gamma rays (i.e., hadronic versus leptonic, or a mixture of the two) through information provided by their spatial distribution, spectra, and time variation. This work is the first attempt to quantitatively evaluate the capabilities of CTA to achieve various proposed scientific goals by observing this important cosmic particle accelerator.
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Myriapods (e. g., centipedes and millipedes) display a simple homonomous body plan relative to other arthropods. All members of the class are terrestrial, but they attained terrestriality independently of insects. Myriapoda is the only arthropod class not represented by a sequenced genome. We present an analysis of the genome of the centipede Strigamia maritima. It retains a compact genome that has undergone less gene loss and shuffling than previously sequenced arthropods, and many orthologues of genes conserved from the bilaterian ancestor that have been lost in insects. Our analysis locates many genes in conserved macro-synteny contexts, and many small-scale examples of gene clustering. We describe several examples where S. maritima shows different solutions from insects to similar problems. The insect olfactory receptor gene family is absent from S. maritima, and olfaction in air is likely effected by expansion of other receptor gene families. For some genes S. maritima has evolved paralogues to generate coding sequence diversity, where insects use alternate splicing. This is most striking for the Dscam gene, which in Drosophila generates more than 100,000 alternate splice forms, but in S. maritima is encoded by over 100 paralogues. We see an intriguing linkage between the absence of any known photosensory proteins in a blind organism and the additional absence of canonical circadian clock genes. The phylogenetic position of myriapods allows us to identify where in arthropod phylogeny several particular molecular mechanisms and traits emerged. For example, we conclude that juvenile hormone signalling evolved with the emergence of the exoskeleton in the arthropods and that RR-1 containing cuticle proteins evolved in the lineage leading to Mandibulata. We also identify when various gene expansions and losses occurred. The genome of S. maritima offers us a unique glimpse into the ancestral arthropod genome, while also displaying many adaptations to its specific life history.
Background:
COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking.
Objective:
The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points.
Methods:
We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions.
Results:
Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction.
Conclusions:
We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.
We present varve chronologies for sediments from two maar lakes in the Valle de Santiago region (Central Mexico): Hoya La Alberca (AD 1852-1973) and Hoya Rincn de Parangueo (AD 1839-1943). These are the first varve chronologies for Mexican lakes. The varved sections were anchored with tephras from Colima (1913) and Paricutin (1943/1944) and (210)Pb ages. We compare the sequences using the thickness of seasonal laminae and element counts (Al, Si, S, Cl, K, Ti, Mn, Fe, and Sr) determined by micro X-ray fluorescence spectrometry. The formation of the varve sublaminae is attributed to the strongly seasonal climate regime. Limited rainfall and high evaporation rates in winter and spring induce precipitation of carbonates (high Ca, Sr) enriched in (13)C and (18)O, whereas rainfall in summer increases organic and clastic input (plagioclase, quartz) with high counts of lithogenic elements (K, Al, Ti, and Si). Eolian input of Ti occurs also in the dry season. Moving correlations (5-yr windows) of the Ca and Ti counts show similar development in both sequences until the 1930s. Positive correlations indicate mixing of allochthonous Ti and autochthonous Ca, while negative correlations indicate their separation in sublaminae. Negative excursions in the correlations correspond with historic and reconstructed droughts, El Nio events, and positive SST anomalies. Based on our data, droughts (3-7 year duration) were severe and centred around the following years: the early 1850s, 1865, 1880, 1895, 1905, 1915 and the late 1920s with continuation into the 1930s. The latter dry period brought both lake systems into a critical state making them susceptible to further drying. Groundwater overexploitation due to the expansion of irrigation agriculture in the region after 1940 induced the transition from calcite to aragonite precipitation in Alberca and halite infiltration in Rincn. The proxy data indicate a faster response to increased evaporation for Rincn, the lake with the larger maar dimensions, solar radiation receipt and higher conductivity, whereas the smaller, steeper Alberca maar responded rapidly to increased precipitation.
We present varve chronologies for sediments from two maar lakes in the Valle de Santiago region (Central Mexico): Hoya La Alberca (AD 1852-1973) and Hoya Rincn de Parangueo (AD 1839-1943). These are the first varve chronologies for Mexican lakes. The varved sections were anchored with tephras from Colima (1913) and Paricutin (1943/ 1944) and Pb-210 ages. We compare the sequences using the thickness of seasonal laminae and element counts (Al, Si, S, Cl, K, Ti, Mn, Fe, and Sr) determined by micro X-ray fluorescence spectrometry. The formation of the varve sublaminae is attributed to the strongly seasonal climate regime. Limited rainfall and high evaporation rates in winter and spring induce precipitation of carbonates (high Ca, Sr) enriched in C-13 and O-18, whereas rainfall in summer increases organic and clastic input (plagioclase, quartz) with high counts of lithogenic elements (K, Al, Ti, and Si). Eolian input of Ti occurs also in the dry season. Moving correlations (5-yr windows) of the Ca and Ti counts show similar development in both sequences until the 1930s. Positive correlations indicate mixing of allochthonous Ti and autochthonous Ca, while negative correlations indicate their separation in sublaminae. Negative excursions in the correlations correspond with historic and reconstructed droughts, El Nio events, and positive SST anomalies. Based on our data, droughts (3-7 year duration) were severe and centred around the following years: the early 1850s, 1865, 1880, 1895, 1905, 1915 and the late 1920s with continuation into the 1930s. The latter dry period brought both lake systems into a critical state making them susceptible to further drying. Groundwater overexploitation due to the expansion of irrigation agriculture in the region after 1940 induced the transition from calcite to aragonite precipitation in Alberca and halite infiltration in Rincn. The proxy data indicate a faster response to increased evaporation for Rincn, the lake with the larger maar dimensions, solar radiation receipt and higher conductivity, whereas the smaller, steeper Alberca maar responded rapidly to increased precipitation.
River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth’s biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented “next-generation biomonitoring” by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.
Understanding the association between autonomic nervous system [ANS] function and brain morphology across the lifespan provides important insights into neurovisceral mechanisms underlying health and disease. Resting-state ANS activity, indexed by measures of heart rate [HR] and its variability [HRV] has been associated with brain morphology, particularly cortical thickness [CT]. While findings have been mixed regarding the anatomical distribution and direction of the associations, these inconsistencies may be due to sex and age differences in HR/HRV and CT. Previous studies have been limited by small sample sizes, which impede the assessment of sex differences and aging effects on the association between ANS function and CT. To overcome these limitations, 20 groups worldwide contributed data collected under similar protocols of CT assessment and HR/HRV recording to be pooled in a mega-analysis (N = 1,218 (50.5% female), mean age 36.7 years (range: 12-87)). Findings suggest a decline in HRV as well as CT with increasing age. CT, particularly in the orbitofrontal cortex, explained additional variance in HRV, beyond the effects of aging. This pattern of results may suggest that the decline in HRV with increasing age is related to a decline in orbitofrontal CT. These effects were independent of sex and specific to HRV; with no significant association between CT and HR. Greater CT across the adult lifespan may be vital for the maintenance of healthy cardiac regulation via the ANS-or greater cardiac vagal activity as indirectly reflected in HRV may slow brain atrophy. Findings reveal an important association between CT and cardiac parasympathetic activity with implications for healthy aging and longevity that should be studied further in longitudinal research.