Refine
Has Fulltext
- no (2)
Document Type
- Article (2)
Language
- English (2)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (2)
Keywords
- EMIC waves (1)
- Linear theory (1)
- Van Allen Probes (1)
- Wave generation (1)
- forecasting (1922, 4315, 7924, 7964) (1)
- machine learning (0555) (1)
- radiation belts (1)
Institute
We perform a statistical study calculating electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave amplitudes based off in situ plasma measurements taken by the Van Allen Probes’ (1.1–5.8 Re) Helium, Oxygen, Proton, Electron (HOPE) instrument. Calculated wave amplitudes are compared to EMIC waves observed by the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science on board the Van Allen Probes during the same period. The survey covers a 22-month period (1 November 2012 to 31 August 2014), a full Van Allen Probe magnetic local time (MLT) precession. The linear theory proxy was used to identify EMIC wave events with plasma conditions favorable for EMIC wave excitation. Two hundred and thirty-two EMIC wave events (103 H+-band and 129 He+-band) were selected for this comparison. Nearly all events selected are observed beyond L = 4. Results show that calculated wave amplitudes exclusively using the in situ HOPE measurements produce amplitudes too low compared to the observed EMIC wave amplitudes. Hot proton anisotropy (Ahp) distributions are asymmetric in MLT within the inner (L < 7) magnetosphere with peak (minimum) Ahp, ∼0.81 to 1.00 (∼0.62), observed in the dawn (dusk), 0000 < MLT ≤ 1200 (1200 < MLT ≤ 2400), sectors. Measurements of Ahp are found to decrease in the presence of EMIC wave activity. Ahp amplification factors are determined and vary with respect to EMIC wave-band and MLT. He+-band events generally require double (quadruple) the measured Ahp for the dawn (dusk) sector to reproduce the observed EMIC wave amplitudes.
We present two new empirical models of radiation belt electron flux at geostationary orbit. GOES-15 measurements of 0.8 MeV electrons were used to train a Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous input (NARX) neural network for both modeling GOES-15 flux values and an upper boundary condition scaling factor (BF). The GOES-15 flux model utilizes an input and feedback delay of 2 and 2 time steps (i.e., 5 min time steps) with the most efficient number of hidden layers set to 10. Magnetic local time, Dst, Kp, solar wind dynamic pressure, AE, and solar wind velocity were found to perform as predicative indicators of GOES-15 flux and therefore were used as the exogenous inputs. The NARX-derived upper boundary condition scaling factor was used in conjunction with the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code to produce reconstructions of the radiation belts during the period of July-November 1990, independent of in-situ observations. Here, Kp was chosen as the sole exogenous input to be more compatible with the VERB code. This Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite-era reconstruction showcases the potential to use these neural network-derived boundary conditions as a method of hindcasting the historical radiation belts. This study serves as a companion paper to another recently published study on reconstructing the radiation belts during Solar Cycles 17-24 (Saikin et al., 2021, ), for which the results featured in this paper were used.