Refine
Has Fulltext
- no (13)
Year of publication
Document Type
- Article (13)
Language
- English (13)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (13)
Keywords
- ResNet (2)
- gradient boosting (2)
- monitoring (2)
- random forest (2)
- regression (2)
- Active evaluation (1)
- Animal building (1)
- Automatically controlled windows (1)
- CP-Logic (1)
- Deep learning (1)
One of the goals of artificial intelligence is to develop agents that learn and act in complex environments. Realistic environments typically feature a variable number of objects, relations amongst them, and non-deterministic transition behavior. While standard probabilistic sequence models provide efficient inference and learning techniques for sequential data, they typically cannot fully capture the relational complexity. On the other hand, statistical relational learning techniques are often too inefficient to cope with complex sequential data. In this paper, we introduce a simple model that occupies an intermediate position in this expressiveness/efficiency trade-off. It is based on CP-logic (Causal Probabilistic Logic), an expressive probabilistic logic for modeling causality. However, by specializing CP-logic to represent a probability distribution over sequences of relational state descriptions and employing a Markov assumption, inference and learning become more tractable and effective. Specifically, we show how to solve part of the inference and learning problems directly at the first-order level, while transforming the remaining part into the problem of computing all satisfying assignments for a Boolean formula in a binary decision diagram. We experimentally validate that the resulting technique is able to handle probabilistic relational domains with a substantial number of objects and relations.
Supervised machine learning to assess methane emissions of a dairy building with natural ventilation
(2020)
A reliable quantification of greenhouse gas emissions is a basis for the development of adequate mitigation measures. Protocols for emission measurements and data analysis approaches to extrapolate to accurate annual emission values are a substantial prerequisite in this context. We systematically analyzed the benefit of supervised machine learning methods to project methane emissions from a naturally ventilated cattle building with a concrete solid floor and manure scraper located in Northern Germany. We took into account approximately 40 weeks of hourly emission measurements and compared model predictions using eight regression approaches, 27 different sampling scenarios and four measures of model accuracy. Data normalization was applied based on median and quartile range. A correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of individual features. This indicated only a very weak linear relation between the methane emission and features that are typically used to predict methane emission values of naturally ventilated barns. It further highlighted the added value of including day-time and squared ambient temperature as features. The error of the predicted emission values was in general below 10%. The results from Gaussian processes, ordinary multilinear regression and neural networks were least robust. More robust results were obtained with multilinear regression with regularization, support vector machines and particularly the ensemble methods gradient boosting and random forest. The latter had the added value to be rather insensitive against the normalization procedure. In the case of multilinear regression, also the removal of not significantly linearly related variables (i.e., keeping only the day-time component) led to robust modeling results. We concluded that measurement protocols with 7 days and six measurement periods can be considered sufficient to model methane emissions from the dairy barn with solid floor with manure scraper, particularly when periods are distributed over the year with a preference for transition periods. Features should be normalized according to median and quartile range and must be carefully selected depending on the modeling approach.
We study prediction problems in which the conditional distribution of the output given the input varies as a function of task variables which, in our applications, represent space and time. In varying-coefficient models, the coefficients of this conditional are allowed to change smoothly in space and time; the strength of the correlations between neighboring points is determined by the data. This is achieved by placing a Gaussian process (GP) prior on the coefficients. Bayesian inference in varying-coefficient models is generally intractable. We show that with an isotropic GP prior, inference in varying-coefficient models resolves to standard inference for a GP that can be solved efficiently. MAP inference in this model resolves to multitask learning using task and instance kernels. We clarify the relationship between varying-coefficient models and the hierarchical Bayesian multitask model and show that inference for hierarchical Bayesian multitask models can be carried out efficiently using graph-Laplacian kernels. We explore the model empirically for the problems of predicting rent and real-estate prices, and predicting the ground motion during seismic events. We find that varying-coefficient models with GP priors excel at predicting rents and real-estate prices. The ground-motion model predicts seismic hazards in the State of California more accurately than the previous state of the art.