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Institute
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
We present the Pristine survey, a new narrow-band photometric survey focused on the metallicity-sensitive Ca H&K lines and conducted in the Northern hemisphere with the wide-field imager MegaCam on the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. This paper reviews our overall survey strategy and discusses the data processing and metallicity calibration. Additionally we review the application of these data to the main aims of the survey, which are to gather a large sample of the most metal-poor stars in the Galaxy, to further characterize the faintest Milky Way satellites, and to map the (metal-poor) substructure in the Galactic halo. The current Pristine footprint comprises over 1000 deg(2) in the Galactic halo ranging from b similar to 30 degrees to similar to 78 degrees and covers many known stellar substructures. We demonstrate that, for Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) stellar objects, we can calibrate the photometry at the 0.02-mag level. The comparison with existing spectroscopic metallicities from SDSS/Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SEGUE) and Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope shows that, when combined with SDSS broad-band g and i photometry, we can use the CaHK photometry to infer photometric metallicities with an accuracy of similar to 0.2 dex from [Fe/H] = -0.5 down to the extremely metal-poor regime ([Fe/H] < -3.0). After the removal of various contaminants, we can efficiently select metal-poor stars and build a very complete sample with high purity. The success rate of uncovering [Fe/H](SEGUE) < -3.0 stars among [Fe/H](Pristine) < -3.0 selected stars is 24 per cent, and 85 per cent of the remaining candidates are still very metal poor ([Fe/H]<-2.0). We further demonstrate that Pristine is well suited to identify the very rare and pristine Galactic stars with [Fe/H] < -4.0, which can teach us valuable lessons about the early Universe.
Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.
Moving in the Anthropocene
(2018)
Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission.
Inhalt: AUFSÄTZE Martin Winter „Der Untertan auf Posten“ - Deserteursverfolgung an der brandenburgisch-mecklenburgischen Grenze im 18. Jahrhundert Jan Willem Huntebrinker Geordneter Sozialverband oder Gegenordnung? Zwei Perspektiven auf das Militär im 16. und 17. Jahrhundert Ulrike Ludwig Strafverfolgung und Gnadenpraxis in Kursachsen unter dem Eindruck des Dreißigjährigen Krieges Heinrich Lang Der „zivile“ Krieg. Ordnungskonzepte zwischen städtischer Gesellschaft und Söldnerführern im Italien der Renaissance PROJEKTE Martin Meier „Zur Rolle des Militärs in der utopischen Literatur und im utopischen Denken der frühen Neuzeit“ (16.-18. Jahrhundert) Nicolas Disch „Lust am Krieg“? - Engelberger Talleute in Solddiensten (1600-1800) BERICHTE Protokoll der Mitgliederversammlung des Arbeitskreises „Militär und Gesellschaft in der Frühen Neuzeit“ e.V. (AMG) am 21. September 2006 (Konstanz) Urte Evert „Die Rückkehr der Condottieri? Krieg und Militär im Spannungsfeld zwischen Verstaatlichung und Privatisierung. Die Entwicklung vom 16. Jahrhundert bis zur Gegenwart.“, 12. bis 14. Mai 2006 (Potsdam) Elizabeth Harding und Christine D. Schmidt „Vormoderne Konfliktbewältigung aus regionalgeschichtlicher Perspektive“, 21. und 22. Juni 2006 (Münster) Jan Willem Huntebrinker „Kriegs-Bilder“: Epochenübergreifende Sektion des 46. Deutschen Historikertags, 20. September 2006(Konstanz) REZENSIONEN Dorit Schneider Gabriele Jochums (Bearb.), Bibliographie Friedrich Wilhelm I.: Schrifttum von 1688 bis 2005, Berlin 2005 ANKÜNDIGUNGEN Militär und Recht in der Frühen Neuzeit, 4.-7. Oktober 2007 auf Schloss Thurnau bei Bayreuth Markus Pöhlmann Anonyme und pseudonyme Militärliteratur
We use a background quasar to detect the presence of circumgalactic gas around a z = 0.91 low-mass star-forming galaxy. Data from the new Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) on the Very Large Telescope show that the galaxy has a dust-corrected star formation rate (SFR) of 4.7 +/- 2.0. M-circle dot yr(-1), with no companion down to 0.22 M-circle dot yr(-1) (5 sigma) within 240 h(-1) kpc ("30"). Using a high-resolution spectrum of the background quasar, which is fortuitously aligned with the galaxy major axis (with an azimuth angle alpha of only 15 degrees), we find, in the gas kinematics traced by low-ionization lines, distinct signatures consistent with those expected for a "cold-flow disk" extending at least 12 kpc (3 x R-1/2). We estimate the mass accretion rate M-in to be at least two to three times larger than the SFR, using the geometric constraints from the IFU data and the H (I) column density of log N-H (I)/cm(-2) similar or equal to 20.4 obtained from a Hubble Space Telescope/COS near-UV spectrum. From a detailed analysis of the low-ionization lines (e.g., Zn II, Cr II, Ti II, MnII, Si II), the accreting material appears to be enriched to about 0.4 Z(circle dot) (albeit with large uncertainties: log Z/Z(circle dot) = -0.4 +/- 0.4), which is comparable to the galaxy metallicity (12 + log O/H = 8.7 +/- 0.2), implying a large recycling fraction from past outflows. Blueshifted Mg II and Fe II absorptions in the galaxy spectrum from the MUSE data reveal the presence of an outflow. The Mg II and Fe II absorption line ratios indicate emission infilling due to scattering processes, but the MUSE data do not show any signs of fluorescent Fe II* emission.
The SISAL database
(2018)
Stable isotope records from speleothems provide information on past climate changes, most particularly information that can be used to reconstruct past changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. These records are increasingly being used to provide "out-of-sample" evaluations of isotope-enabled climate models. SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) is an international working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project. The working group aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation. The SISAL database contains data for individual speleothems, grouped by cave system. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon (delta O-18, delta C-13) measurements are referenced by distance from the top or bottom of the speleothem. Additional tables provide information on dating, including information on the dates used to construct the original age model and sufficient information to assess the quality of each data set and to erect a standardized chronology across different speleothems. The metadata table provides location information, information on the full range of measurements carried out on each speleothem and information on the cave system that is relevant to the interpretation of the records, as well as citations for both publications and archived data.
The great auk was once abundant and distributed across the North Atlantic. It is now extinct, having been heavily exploited for its eggs, meat, and feathers. We investigated the impact of human hunting on its demise by integrating genetic data, GPS-based ocean current data, and analyses of population viability. We sequenced complete mitochondrial genomes of 41 individuals from across the species' geographic range and reconstructed population structure and population dynamics throughout the Holocene. Taken together, our data do not provide any evidence that great auks were at risk of extinction prior to the onset of intensive human hunting in the early 16th century. In addition, our population viability analyses reveal that even if the great auk had not been under threat by environmental change, human hunting alone could have been sufficient to cause its extinction. Our results emphasise the vulnerability of even abundant and widespread species to intense and localised exploitation.
We present results from our on-going MusE GAs FLOw and Wind (MEGAFLOW) survey, which consists of 22 quasar lines of sight, each observed with the integral field unit MUSE and the UVES spectrograph at the ESO Very Large Telescopes (VLT). The goals of this survey are to study the properties of the circumgalactic medium around z similar to 1 star-forming galaxies. The absorption-line selected survey consists of 79 strong MgII absorbers (with rest-frame equivalent width greater than or similar to 0.3 angstrom) and, currently, 86 associated galaxies within 100 projected kpc of the quasar with stellar masses (M-star) from 109 to 1011 M-circle dot. We find that the cool halo gas traced by MgII is not isotropically distributed around these galaxies from the strong bi-modal distribution in the azimuthal angle of the apparent location of the quasar with respect to the galaxy major axis. This supports a scenario in which outflows are bi-conical in nature and co-exist with a co-planar gaseous structure extending at least up to 60-80 kpc. Assuming that absorbers near the minor axis probe outflows, the current MEGAFLOW sample allowed us to select 26 galaxy-quasar pairs suitable for studying winds. From this sample, using a simple geometrical model, we find that the outflow velocity only exceeds the escape velocity when M-star less than or similar to 4 x 10(9) M-circle dot, implying the cool material is likely to fall back except in the smallest haloes. Finally, we find that the mass loading factor., the ratio between the ejected mass rate and the star formation rate, appears to be roughly constant with respect to the galaxy mass.
Gilbert et al. conclude that evidence from the Open Science Collaboration’s Reproducibility Project: Psychology indicates high reproducibility, given the study methodology. Their very optimistic assessment is limited by statistical misconceptions and by causal inferences from selectively interpreted, correlational data. Using the Reproducibility Project: Psychology data, both optimistic and pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility are possible, and neither are yet warranted.