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Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) are essential in probabilistic seismic hazard studies for estimating the ground motions generated by the seismic sources. In low-seismicity regions, only weak motions are available during the lifetime of accelerometric networks, and the equations selected for the probabilistic studies are usually models established from foreign data. Although most GMPEs have been developed for magnitudes 5 and above, the minimum magnitude often used in probabilistic studies in low-seismicity regions is smaller. Disaggregations have shown that, at return periods of engineering interest, magnitudes less than 5 may be contributing to the hazard. This paper presents the testing of several GMPEs selected in current international and national probabilistic projects against weak motions recorded in France (191 recordings with source-site distances up to 300 km, 3:8 <= M-w <= 4:5). The method is based on the log-likelihood value proposed by Scherbaum et al. (2009). The best-fitting models (approximately 2:5 <= LLH <= 3:5) over the whole frequency range are the Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008), Akkar and Bommer (2010), and Abrahamson and Silva (2008) models. No significant regional variation of ground motions is highlighted, and the magnitude scaling could be the predominant factor in the control of ground-motion amplitudes. Furthermore, we take advantage of a rich Japanese dataset to run tests on randomly selected low-magnitude subsets, and confirm that a dataset of similar to 190 observations, the same size as the French dataset, is large enough to obtain stable LLH estimates. Additionally we perform the tests against larger magnitudes (5-7) from the Japanese dataset. The ranking of models is partially modified, indicating a magnitude scaling effect for some of the models, and showing that extrapolating testing results obtained from low-magnitude ranges to higher magnitude ranges is not straightforward.
Alpine thermal and structural evolution of the highest external crystalline massif : the Mont Blanc
(2005)
The alpine structural evolution of the Mont Blanc, highest point of the Alps (4810 m), and of the surrounding area has been reexamined. The Mont Blanc and the Aiguilles Rouges external crystalline massifs are windows of Variscan basement within the Penninic and Helvetic nappes. New structural, Ar-40/Ar-39, and fission track data combined with a compilation of earlier P-T estimates and geochronological data give constraints on the amount and timing of the Mont Blanc and Aiguilles Rouges massifs exhumation. Alpine exhumation of the Aiguilles Rouges was limited to the thickness of the overlying nappes (similar to 10 km), while rocks now outcropping in the Mont Blanc have been exhumed from 15 to 20 km depth. Uplift of the two massifs started similar to 22 Myr ago, probably above an incipient thrust: the Alpine sole thrust. At similar to 12 Ma, the NE-SW trending Mont Blanc shear zone (MBsz) initiated. It is a major steep reverse fault with a dextral component, whose existence has been overlooked by most authors, that brings the Mont Blanc above the Aiguilles Rouges. Total vertical throw on the MBsz is estimated to be between 4 and 8 km. Fission track data suggest that relative motion between the Aiguilles Rouges and the Mont Blanc stopped similar to 4 Myr ago. Since that time, uplift of the Mont Blanc has mostly taken place along the Mont Blanc back thrust, a steep north dipping fault bounding the southern flank of the range. The "European roof'' is located where the back thrust intersects the MBsz. Uplift of the Mont Blanc and Aiguilles Rouges occurred toward the end of motion on the Helvetic basal decollement (HBD) at the base of the Helvetic nappes but is coeval with the Jura thin-skinned belt. Northwestward thrusting and uplift of the external crystalline massifs above the Alpine sole thrust deformed the overlying Helvetic nappes and formed a backstop, inducing the formation of the Jura arc. In that part of the external Alps, similar to NW-SE shortening with minor dextral NE-SW motions appears to have been continuous from similar to 22 Ma until at least similar to 4 Ma but may be still active today. A sequential history of the alpine structural evolution of the units now outcropping NW of the Pennine thrust is proposed