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Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
The SISAL database
(2018)
Stable isotope records from speleothems provide information on past climate changes, most particularly information that can be used to reconstruct past changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. These records are increasingly being used to provide "out-of-sample" evaluations of isotope-enabled climate models. SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) is an international working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project. The working group aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation. The SISAL database contains data for individual speleothems, grouped by cave system. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon (delta O-18, delta C-13) measurements are referenced by distance from the top or bottom of the speleothem. Additional tables provide information on dating, including information on the dates used to construct the original age model and sufficient information to assess the quality of each data set and to erect a standardized chronology across different speleothems. The metadata table provides location information, information on the full range of measurements carried out on each speleothem and information on the cave system that is relevant to the interpretation of the records, as well as citations for both publications and archived data.
Imaging changes in molecular geometries on their natural femtosecond timescale with sub-Angstrom spatial precision is one of the critical challenges in the chemical sciences, as the nuclear geometry changes determine the molecular reactivity. For photoexcited molecules, the nuclear dynamics determine the photoenergy conversion path and efficiency. Here we report a gas-phase electron diffraction experiment using megaelectronvolt (MeV) electrons, where we captured the rotational wavepacket dynamics of nonadiabatically laser-aligned nitrogen molecules. We achieved a combination of 100 fs root-mean-squared temporal resolution and sub-Angstrom (0.76 angstrom) spatial resolution that makes it possible to resolve the position of the nuclei within the molecule. In addition, the diffraction patterns reveal the angular distribution of the molecules, which changes from prolate (aligned) to oblate (anti-aligned) in 300 fs. Our results demonstrate a significant and promising step towards making atomically resolved movies of molecular reactions.
We present results on ultrafast gas electron diffraction (UGED) experiments with femtosecond resolution using the MeV electron gun at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. UGED is a promising method to investigate molecular dynamics in the gas phase because electron pulses can probe the structure with a high spatial resolution. Until recently, however, it was not possible for UGED to reach the relevant timescale for the motion of the nuclei during a molecular reaction. Using MeV electron pulses has allowed us to overcome the main challenges in reaching femtosecond resolution, namely delivering short electron pulses on a gas target, overcoming the effect of velocity mismatch between pump laser pulses and the probe electron pulses, and maintaining a low timing jitter. At electron kinetic energies above 3 MeV, the velocity mismatch between laser and electron pulses becomes negligible. The relativistic electrons are also less susceptible to temporal broadening due to the Coulomb force. One of the challenges of diffraction with relativistic electrons is that the small de Broglie wavelength results in very small diffraction angles. In this paper we describe the new setup and its characterization, including capturing static diffraction patterns of molecules in the gas phase, finding time-zero with sub-picosecond accuracy and first time-resolved diffraction experiments. The new device can achieve a temporal resolution of 100 fs root-mean-square, and sub-angstrom spatial resolution. The collimation of the beam is sufficient to measure the diffraction pattern, and the transverse coherence is on the order of 2 nm. Currently, the temporal resolution is limited both by the pulse duration of the electron pulse on target and by the timing jitter, while the spatial resolution is limited by the average electron beam current and the signal-to-noise ratio of the detection system. We also discuss plans for improving both the temporal resolution and the spatial resolution.
We present results on ultrafast gas electron diffraction (UGED) experiments with femtosecond resolution using the MeV electron gun at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. UGED is a promising method to investigate molecular dynamics in the gas phase because electron pulses can probe the structure with a high spatial resolution. Until recently, however, it was not possible for UGED to reach the relevant timescale for the motion of the nuclei during a molecular reaction. Using MeV electron pulses has allowed us to overcome the main challenges in reaching femtosecond resolution, namely delivering short electron pulses on a gas target, overcoming the effect of velocity mismatch between pump laser pulses and the probe electron pulses, and maintaining a low timing jitter. At electron kinetic energies above 3 MeV, the velocity mismatch between laser and electron pulses becomes negligible. The relativistic electrons are also less susceptible to temporal broadening due to the Coulomb force. One of the challenges of diffraction with relativistic electrons is that the small de Broglie wavelength results in very small diffraction angles. In this paper we describe the new setup and its characterization, including capturing static diffraction patterns of molecules in the gas phase, finding time-zero with sub-picosecond accuracy and first time-resolved diffraction experiments. The new device can achieve a temporal resolution of 100 fs root-mean-square, and sub-angstrom spatial resolution. The collimation of the beam is sufficient to measure the diffraction pattern, and the transverse coherence is on the order of 2 nm. Currently, the temporal resolution is limited both by the pulse duration of the electron pulse on target and by the timing jitter, while the spatial resolution is limited by the average electron beam current and the signal-to-noise ratio of the detection system. We also discuss plans for improving both the temporal resolution and the spatial resolution.
Observing the motion of the nuclear wave packets during a molecular reaction, in both space and time, is crucial for understanding and controlling the outcome of photoinduced chemical reactions. We have imaged the motion of a vibrational wave packet in isolated iodine molecules using ultrafast electron diffraction with relativistic electrons. The time-varying interatomic distance was measured with a precision 0.07 angstrom and temporal resolution of 230 fs full width at half maximum. The method is not only sensitive to the position but also the shape of the nuclear wave packet.
Global warming has created a need for studies along climatic gradients to assess the effects of temperature on ecological processes. Altitudinal and latitudinal gradients are often used as such, usually in combination with air temperature data from the closest weather station recorded at 1.52 m above the ground. However, many ecological processes occur in, at, or right above the soil surface. To evaluate how representative the commonly used weather station data are for the microclimate relevant for soil surface biota, we compared weather station temperatures for an altitudinal (500900 m a.s.l.) and a latitudinal gradient (4968 degrees N) with data obtained by temperature sensors placed right below the soil surface at five sites along these gradients. The mean annual temperatures obtained from weather stations and adjusted using a lapse rate of -5.5 degrees C km-1 were between 3.8 degrees C lower and 1.6 degrees C higher than those recorded by the temperature sensors at the soil surface, depending on the position along the gradients. The monthly mean temperatures were up to 10 degrees C warmer or 5 degrees C colder at the soil surface. The within-site variation in accumulated temperature was as high as would be expected from a 300 m change in altitude or from a 4 degrees change in latitude or a climate change scenario corresponding to warming of 1.63.8 degrees C. Thus, these differences introduced by the decoupling are significant from a climate change perspective, and the results demonstrate the need for incorporating microclimatic variation when conducting studies along altitudinal or latitudinal gradients. We emphasize the need for using relevant temperature data in climate impact studies and further call for more studies describing the soil surface microclimate, which is crucial for much of the biota.
Energy models are used to inform and support decisions within the transition to climate neutrality. In recent years, such models have been criticised for being overly techno-centred and ignoring environmental and social factors of the energy transition. Here, we explore and illustrate the impact of ignoring such factors by comparing model results to model user needs and real-world observations. We firstly identify concrete user needs for better representation of environmental and social factors in energy modelling via interviews, a survey and a workshop. Secondly, we explore and illustrate the effects of omitting non-techno-economic factors in modelling by contrasting policy-targeted scenarios with reality in four EU case study examples. We show that by neglecting environmental and social factors, models risk generating overly optimistic and potentially misleading results, for example by suggesting transition speeds far exceeding any speeds observed, or pathways facing hard-to-overcome resource constraints. As such, modelled energy transition pathways that ignore such factors may be neither desirable nor feasible from an environmental and social perspective, and scenarios may be irrelevant in practice. Finally, we discuss a sample of recent energy modelling innovations and call for continued and increased efforts for improved approaches that better represent environmental and social factors in energy modelling and increase the relevance of energy models for informing policymaking.