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The identification of buried soil horizons in agricultural landscapes helps to quantify sediment budgets and erosion-related carbon dynamics. High-resolution mapping of buried horizons using conventional soil surveys is destructive and time consuming. Geoelectrical sensors can offer a fast and non-destructive alternative for determining horizon positions and properties. In this paper, we compare the suitability of several geoelectrical methods for measuring the depth to buried horizons (Apb, Ahb and Hab) in the hummocky ground moraine landscape of northeastern Germany. Soil profile descriptions were developed for 269 locations within a 6-ha experimental field "CarboZALF-D". A stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA) estimated the lateral position of the buried horizons using electromagnetic induction data and terrain attributes. To predict the depth of a buried horizon, multiple linear regression (MLR) was used for both a 120-m transect and a 0.2-ha pseudo-three-dimensional (3D) area. At these scales, apparent electrical conductivity (ECa), electrical resistivity (ER) and terrain attributes were used as independent variables. The LDA accurately predicted Apb- and Ahb-horizons (a correct classification of 93%). The LDA of the Hab-horizon had a misclassification of 24%, which was probably related to the smaller test set and the higher depth of this horizon. The MLR predicted the depth of the Apb-, Ahb- and Hab-horizons with relative root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 7, 3 and 13%, respectively, in the pseudo-3D area. MLR had a lower accuracy for the 2D transect compared to the pseudo-3D area. Overall, the use of LDA and MLR has been an efficient methodological approach for predicting buried horizon positions. Highlights The suitability of geoelectrical measurements for digital modelling of diagnostic buried soil horizons was determined. LDA and MLR were used to detect multiple horizons with geoelectrical devices and terrain attributes. Geoelectrical variables were significant predictors of the position of the target soil horizons. The use of these tested digital technologies gives an opportunity to develop high-resolution soil mapping procedures.
Large-scale crop yield failures are increasingly associated with food price spikes and food insecurity and are a large source of income risk for farmers. While the evidence linking extreme weather to yield failures is clear, consensus on the broader set of weather drivers and conditions responsible for recent yield failures is lacking. We investigate this for the case of four major crops in Germany over the past 20 years using a combination of machine learning and process-based modelling. Our results confirm that years associated with widespread yield failures across crops were generally associated with severe drought, such as in 2018 and to a lesser extent 2003. However, for years with more localized yield failures and large differences in spatial patterns of yield failures between crops, no single driver or combination of drivers was identified. Relatively large residuals of unexplained variation likely indicate the importance of non-weather related factors, such as management (pest, weed and nutrient management and possible interactions with weather) explaining yield failures. Models to inform adaptation planning at farm, market or policy levels are here suggested to require consideration of cumulative resource capture and use, as well as effects of extreme events, the latter largely missing in process-based models. However, increasingly novel combinations of weather events under climate change may limit the extent to which data driven methods can replace process-based models in risk assessments.