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Phytoplankton biomass and production regulates key aspects of freshwater ecosystems yet its variability and subsequent predictability is poorly understood. We estimated within-lake variation in biomass using high-frequency chlorophyll fluorescence data from 18 globally distributed lakes. We tested how variation in fluorescence at monthly, daily, and hourly scales was related to high-frequency variability of wind, water temperature, and radiation within lakes as well as productivity and physical attributes among lakes. Within lakes, monthly variation dominated, but combined daily and hourly variation were equivalent to that expressed monthly. Among lakes, biomass variability increased with trophic status while, within-lake biomass variation increased with increasing variability in wind speed. Our results highlight the benefits of high-frequency chlorophyll monitoring and suggest that predicted changes associated with climate, as well as ongoing cultural eutrophication, are likely to substantially increase the temporal variability of algal biomass and thus the predictability of the services it provides.
The use of high-frequency sensors on profiling buoys to investigate physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes is
increasing rapidly. Profiling buoys with automated winches and sensors that collect high-frequency chlorophyll fluorescence
(ChlF) profiles in 11 lakes in the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) allowed the study of the vertical
and temporal distribution of ChlF, including the formation of subsurface chlorophyll maxima (SSCM). The effectiveness of 3
methods for sampling phytoplankton distributions in lakes, including (1) manual profiles, (2) single-depth buoys, and (3)
profiling buoys were assessed. High-frequency ChlF surface data and profiles were compared to predictions from the
Plankton Ecology Group (PEG) model. The depth-integrated ChlF dynamics measured by the profiling buoy data revealed a
greater complexity that neither conventional sampling nor the generalized PEG model captured. Conventional sampling
techniques would have missed SSCM in 7 of 11 study lakes. Although surface-only ChlF data underestimated average water
column ChlF, at times by nearly 2-fold in 4 of the lakes, overall there was a remarkable similarity between surface and mean
water column data. Contrary to the PEG model’s proposed negligible role for physical control of phytoplankton during the
growing season, thermal structure and light availability were closely associated with ChlF seasonal depth distribution. Thus,
an extension of the PEG model is proposed, with a new conceptual framework that explicitly includes physical metrics to
better predict SSCM formation in lakes and highlight when profiling buoys are especially informative.