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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
We report on simultaneous broadband observations of the TeV-emitting blazar Markarian 501 between 2013 April 1 and August 10, including the first detailed characterization of the synchrotron peak with Swift and NuSTAR. During the campaign, the nearby BL Lac object was observed in both a quiescent and an elevated state. The broadband campaign includes observations with NuSTAR, MAGIC, VERITAS, the Fermi Large Area Telescope, Swift X-ray Telescope and UV Optical Telescope, various ground-based optical instruments, including the GASP-WEBT program, as well as radio observations by OVRO, Metsahovi, and the F-Gamma consortium. Some of the MAGIC observations were affected by a sand layer from the Saharan desert, and had to be corrected using event-by-event corrections derived with a Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) facility. This is the first time that LIDAR information is used to produce a physics result with Cherenkov Telescope data taken during adverse atmospheric conditions, and hence sets a precedent for the current and future ground-based gamma-ray instruments. The NuSTAR instrument provides unprecedented sensitivity in hard X-rays, showing the source to display a spectral energy distribution (SED) between 3 and 79 keV consistent with a log-parabolic spectrum and hard X-ray variability on hour timescales. None (of the four extended NuSTAR observations) show evidence of the onset of inverse-Compton emission at hard X-ray energies. We apply a single-zone equilibrium synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model to five simultaneous broadband SEDs. We find that the SSC model can reproduce the observed broadband states through a decrease in the magnetic field strength coinciding with an increase in the luminosity and hardness of the relativistic leptons responsible for the high-energy emission.
We present results from VERITAS observations of the BL Lac object PG 1553+113 spanning the years 2010, 2011, and 2012. The time-averaged spectrum, measured between 160 and 560 GeV, is well described by a power law with a spectral index of 4.33 +/- 0.09. The time-averaged integral flux above 200 GeV measured for this period was (1.69 +/- 0.06) x 10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1), corresponding to 6.9% of the Crab Nebula flux. We also present the combined gamma-ray spectrum from the Fermi Large Area Telescope and VERITAS covering an energy range from 100 MeV to 560 GeV. The data are well fit by a power law with an exponential cutoff at 101.9 +/- 3.2 GeV. The origin of the cutoff could be intrinsic to PG 1553+113 or be due to the gamma-ray opacity of our universe through pair production off the extragalactic background light (EBL). Given lower limits to the redshift of z > 0.395 based on optical/UV observations of PG 1553+113, the cutoff would be dominated by EBL absorption. Conversely, the small statistical uncertainties of the VERITAS energy spectrum have allowed us to provide a robust upper limit on the redshift of PG 1553+113 of z <= 0.62. A strongly elevated mean flux of (2.50 +/- 0.14) x10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1) (10.3% of the Crab Nebula flux) was observed during 2012, with the daily flux reaching as high as (4.44 +/- 0.71) x10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1) (18.3% of the Crab Nebula flux) on MJD 56048. The light curve measured during the 2012 observing season is marginally inconsistent with a steady flux, giving a chi(2) probability for a steady flux of 0.03%.
Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective
(2015)
Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5-10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary.
Femtosecond x-ray laser pulses are used to probe the carbon monoxide (CO) oxidation reaction on ruthenium (Ru) initiated by an optical laser pulse. On a time scale of a few hundred femtoseconds, the optical laser pulse excites motions of CO and oxygen (O) on the surface, allowing the reactants to collide, and, with a transient close to a picosecond (ps), new electronic states appear in the OK-edge x-ray absorption spectrum. Density functional theory calculations indicate that these result from changes in the adsorption site and bond formation between CO and O with a distribution of OC-O bond lengths close to the transition state (TS). After 1 ps, 10% of the CO populate the TS region, which is consistent with predictions based on a quantum oscillator model.
We present the XMM-Newton discovery of X-ray emission from the planetary nebula (PN) A78, the second born-again PN detected in X-rays apart from A30. These two PNe share similar spectral and morphological characteristics: they harbor diffuse soft X-ray emission associated with the interaction between the H-poor ejecta and the current fast stellar wind and a point-like source at the position of the central star (CSPN). We present the spectral analysis of the CSPN, using for the first time an NLTE code for expanding atmospheres that takes line blanketing into account for the UV and optical spectra. The wind abundances are used for the X-ray spectral analysis of the CSPN and the diffuse emission. The X-ray emission from the CSPN in A78 can be modeled by a single C VI emission line, while the X-ray emission from its diffuse component is better described by an optically thin plasma emission model with a temperature of kT = 0.088 keV (T approximate to 1.0 x 10(6) K). We estimate X-ray luminosities in the 0.2-2.0 keV energy band of L-X,L-CSPN =(1.2 +/- 0.3) x 10(31) erg s(-1) and L-X,L-DIFF =(9.2 +/- 2.3) x 10(30) erg s(-1) for the CSPN and diffuse components, respectively.
We show that coadsorbed oxygen atoms have a dramatic influence on the CO desorption dynamics from Ru(0001). In contrast to the precursor-mediated desorption mechanism on Ru(0001), the presence of surface oxygen modifies the electronic structure of Ru atoms such that CO desorption occurs predominantly via the direct pathway. This phenomenon is directly observed in an ultrafast pump-probe experiment using a soft x-ray free-electron laser to monitor the dynamic evolution of the valence electronic structure of the surface species. This is supported with the potential of mean force along the CO desorption path obtained from density-functional theory calculations. Charge density distribution and frozen-orbital analysis suggest that the oxygen-induced reduction of the Pauli repulsion, and consequent increase of the dative interaction between the CO 5 sigma and the charged Ru atom, is the electronic origin of the distinct desorption dynamics. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations of CO desorption from Ru(0001) and oxygen-coadsorbed Ru(0001) provide further insights into the surface bond-breaking process.
We present density functional theory modeling of time-resolved optical pump/X-ray spectroscopic probe data of CO desorption from Ru(0001). The BEEF van der Waals functional predicts a weakly bound state as a precursor to desorption. The optical pump leads to a near-instantaneous (<100 fs) increase of the electronic temperature to nearly 7000 K. The temperature evolution and energy transfer between electrons, substrate phonons and adsorbate is described by the two-temperature model and found to equilibrate on a timescale of a few picoseconds to an elevated local temperature of similar to 2000K. Estimating the free energy based on the computed potential of mean force along the desorption path, we find an entropic barrier to desorption (and by time-reversal also to adsorption). This entropic barrier separates the chemisorbed and precursor states, and becomes significant at the elevated temperature of the experiment (similar to 1.4 eV at 2000 K). Experimental pump-probe X-ray absorption/X-ray emission spectroscopy indicates population of a precursor state to desorption upon laser-excitation of the system (Dell'Angela et al., 2013). Computing spectra along the desorption path confirms the picture of a weakly bound transient state arising from ultrafast heating of the metal substrate. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Patterns of phenotypic trait variation in two temperate forest herbs along a broad climatic gradient
(2015)
Phenotypic trait variation plays a major role in the response of plants to global environmental change, particularly in species with low migration capabilities and recruitment success. However, little is known about the variation of functional traits within populations and about differences in this variation on larger spatial scales. In a first approach, we therefore related trait expression to climate and local environmental conditions, studying two temperate forest herbs, Milium effusum and Stachys sylvatica, along a similar to 1800-2500 km latitudinal gradient. Within each of 9-10 regions in six European countries, we collected data from six populations of each species and recorded several variables in each region (temperature, precipitation) and population (light availability, soil parameters). For each plant, we measured height, leaf area, specific leaf area, seed mass and the number of seeds and examined environmental effects on within-population trait variation as well as on trait means. Most importantly, trait variation differed both between and within populations. Species, however, differed in their response. Intrapopulation variation in Milium was consistently positively affected by higher mean temperatures and precipitation as well as by more fertile local soil conditions, suggesting that more productive conditions may select for larger phenotypic variation. In Stachys, particularly light availability positively influenced trait variation, whereas local soil conditions had no consistent effects. Generally, our study emphasises that intra-population variation may differ considerably across larger scales-due to phenotypic plasticity and/or underlying genetic diversity-possibly affecting species response to global environmental change.