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We present a nonparametric way to retrieve an additive system of differential equations in embedding space from a single time series. These equations can be treated with dynamical systems theory and allow for long-term predictions. We apply our method to a modified chaotic Chua oscillator in order to demonstrate its potential
This article describes how to use statistical data analysis to obtain models directly from data. The focus is put on finding nonlinearities within a generalized additive model. These models are found by means of backfitting or more general algorithms, like the alternating conditional expectation value one. The method is illustrated by numerically generated data. As an application, the example of vortex ripple dynamics, a highly complex fluid-granular system, is treated
Vortex ripples in sand are studied experimentally in a one-dimensional setup with periodic boundary conditions. The nonlinear evolution, far from the onset of instability, is analyzed in the framework of a simple model developed for homogeneous patterns. The interaction function describing the mass transport between neighboring ripples is extracted from experimental runs using a recently proposed method for data analysis, and the predictions of the model are compared to the experiment. An analytic explanation of the wavelength selection mechanism in the model is provided, and the width of the stable band of ripples is measured.
We investigate the predictive power of recurrent neural networks for oscillatory systems not only on the attractor but in its vicinity as well. For this, we consider systems perturbed by an external force. This allows us to not merely predict the time evolution of the system but also study its dynamical properties, such as bifurcations, dynamical response curves, characteristic exponents, etc. It is shown that they can be effectively estimated even in some regions of the state space where no input data were given. We consider several different oscillatory examples, including self-sustained, excitatory, time-delay, and chaotic systems. Furthermore, with a statistical analysis, we assess the amount of training data required for effective inference for two common recurrent neural network cells, the long short-term memory and the gated recurrent unit. Published under license by AIP Publishing.
The maximum entropy method is used to predict flows on water distribution networks. This analysis extends the water distribution network formulation of Waldrip et al. (2016) Journal of Hydraulic Engineering (ASCE), by the use of a continuous relative entropy defined on a reduced parameter set. This reduction in the parameters that the entropy is defined over ensures consistency between different representations of the same network. The performance of the proposed reduced parameter method is demonstrated with a one-loop network case study.
The maximum entropy method is used to derive an alternative gravity model for a transport network. The proposed method builds on previous methods which assign the discrete value of a maximum entropy distribution to equal the traffic flow rate. The proposed method however, uses a distribution to represent each flow rate. The proposed method is shown to be able to handle uncertainty in a more elegant way and give similar results to traditional methods. It is able to incorporate more of the observed data through the entropy function, prior distribution and integration limits potentially allowing better inferences to be made.
A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method is developed to predict flow rates or pressure gradients in hydraulic pipe networks without sufficient information to give a closed-form (deterministic) solution. This methodology substantially extends existing deterministic flow network analysis methods. It builds on the MaxEnt framework previously developed by the authors. This study uses a continuous relative entropy defined on a reduced parameter set, here based on the external flow rates. This formulation ensures consistency between different representations of the same network. The relative entropy is maximized subject to observable constraints on the mean values of a subset of flow rates or potential differences, the frictional properties of each pipe, and physical constraints arising from Kirchhoff’s first and second laws. The new method is demonstrated by application to a simple one-loop network and a 1,123-node, 1,140-pipe water distribution network in the suburb of Torrens, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Komplexe Systeme reichen von "harten", physikalischen, wie Klimaphysik, Turbulenz in Fluiden oder Plasmen bis zu so genannten "weichen", wie man sie in der Biologie, der Physik weicher Materie, Soziologie oder Ökonomie findet. Die Ausbildung von Verständnis zu einem solchen System beinhaltet eine Beschreibung in Form von Statistiken und schlussendlich mathematischen Gleichungen. Moderne Datenanalyse stellt eine große Menge von Werkzeugen zur Analyse von Komplexität auf verschiedenen Beschreibungsebenen bereit. In diesem Kurs werden statistische Methoden mit einem Schwerpunkt auf dynamischen Systemen diskutiert und eingeübt. Auf der methodischen Seite werden lineare und nichtlineare Ansätze behandelt, inklusive der Standard-Werkzeuge der deskriptiven und schlussfolgernden Statistik, Wavelet Analyse, Nichtparametrische Regression und der Schätzung nichtlinearer Maße wie fraktaler Dimensionen, Entropien und Komplexitätsmaßen. Auf der Modellierungsseite werden deterministische und stochastische Systeme, Chaos, Skalierung und das Entstehen von Komplexität durch Wechselwirkung diskutiert - sowohl für diskrete als auch für ausgedehnte Systeme. Die beiden Ansätze werden durch Systemanalyse jeweils passender Beispiele vereint.