Refine
Has Fulltext
- no (4)
Document Type
- Article (3)
- Working Paper (1)
Language
- English (4)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (4)
Keywords
- Himalaya (1)
- conomics (1)
- hydropower (1)
- landslides (1)
- natural hazards (1)
- open science (1)
- political science (1)
- replication (1)
- reproduction (1)
- research transparency (1)
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.
Plain Language Summary The 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal caused severe losses in the hydropower sector. The country temporarily lost similar to 20% of its hydropower capacity, and >30 hydropower projects were damaged. The projects hit hardest were those that were affected by earthquake-triggered landslides. We show that these projects are located along very steep rivers with towering sidewalls that are prone to become unstable during strong seismic ground shaking. A statistical classification based on a topographic metric that expresses river steepness and earthquake ground acceleration is able to approximately predict hydropower damage during future earthquakes, based on successful testing of past cases. Thus, our model enables us to estimate earthquake damages to hydropower projects in other parts of the Himalayas. We find that >10% of the Himalayan drainage network may be unsuitable for hydropower infrastructure given high probabilities of high earthquake damages.
Aqueous mixtures of a dye-labeled non-ionic thermoresponsive copolymer and a conjugated cationic polyelectrolyte are shown to exhibit characteristic changes in fluorescence properties in response to temperature and to the presence of salts, enabling a double-stimuli responsiveness. In such mixtures at room temperature, i.e., well below the lower critical solution temperature (LCST), the emission of the dye is strongly quenched due to energy transfer to the polycation, pointing to supramolecular interactions between the two macromolecules. Increasing the concentration of salts weakens the interpolymer interactions, the extent of which is simultaneously monitored from the change in the relative emission intensity of the components. When the mixture is heated above its LCST, the transfer efficiency is significantly reduced, signaling a structural reorganization process, however, surprisingly only if the mixture contains salt ions. To elucidate the reasons behind such thermo- and ion-sensitive fluorescence characteristics, we investigate the effect of salts of alkali chlorides, in particular of NaCl, on the association behavior of these macromolecules before and after the polymer phase transition by a combination of UV-vis, fluorescence, and H-1 NMR spectroscopy with light scattering and small-angle neutron scattering measurements.