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The use of topographic metrics for estimating the susceptibility to, and reconstructing the characteristics of, debris flows has a long research tradition, although largely devoted to humid mountainous terrain. The exceptional 2010 monsoonal rainstorms in the high-altitude mountain desert of Ladakh and Zanskar, NW India, were a painful reminder of how susceptible arid regions are to rainfall-triggered flash floods, landslides, and debris flows. The rainstorms of August 4-6 triggered numerous debris flows, killing 182 people, devastating 607 houses, and more than 10 bridges around Ladakh's capital of Leh. The lessons from this disaster motivated us to revisit methods of predicting (a) flow parameters such as peak discharge and maximum velocity from field and remote sensing data, and (b) the susceptibility to debris flows from catchment morphometry. We focus on quantifying uncertainties tied to these approaches. Comparison of high-resolution satellite images pre- and post-dating the 2010 rainstorm reveals the extent of damage and catastrophic channel widening. Computations based on these geomorphic markers indicate maximum flow velocities of 1.6-6.7 m s(-1) with runout of up to similar to 10 km on several alluvial fans that sustain most of the region's settlements. We estimate median peak discharges of 310-610 m(3) s(-1), which are largely consistent with previous estimates. Monte Carlo-based error propagation for a single given flow-reconstruction method returns a variance in discharge similar to one derived from juxtaposing several different flow reconstruction methods. We further compare discriminant analysis, classification tree modelling, and Bayesian logistic regression to predict debris-flow susceptibility from morphometric variables of 171 catchments in the Ladakh Range. These methods distinguish between fluvial and debris flow-prone catchments at similar success rates, but Bayesian logistic regression allows quantifying uncertainties and relationships between potential predictors. We conclude that, in order to be robust and reliable, morphometric reconstruction of debris-flow properties and susceptibility requires careful assessment and reporting of errors and uncertainties. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Only a small fraction of massive stars seem to host a measurable structured magnetic field, whose origin is still unknown and whose implications for stellar evolution still need to be assessed. Within the context of the "B fields in OB stars (BOB)" collaboration, we used the HARPSpol spectropolarimeter to observe the early B-type stars beta CMa (HD 44743; B1 II/III) and epsilon CMa (HD 52089; B1.5II) in December 2013 and April 2014. For both stars, we consistently detected the signature of a weak (<30 G in absolute value) longitudinal magnetic field, approximately constant with time. We determined the physical parameters of both stars and characterise their X-ray spectrum. For the beta Cep star beta CMa, our mode identification analysis led to determining a rotation period of 13.6 +/- 1.2 days and of an inclination angle of the rotation axis of 57.6 +/- 1.7 degrees, with respect to the line of sight. On the basis of these measurements and assuming a dipolar field geometry, we derived a best fitting obliquity of about 22 degrees and a dipolar magnetic field strength (B-d) of about 100 G (60 < B-d < 230 G within the 1 sigma level), below what is typically found for other magnetic massive stars. This conclusion is strengthened further by considerations of the star's X-ray spectrum. For epsilon CMa we could only determine a lower limit on the dipolar magnetic field strength of 13 G. For this star, we determine that the rotation period ranges between 1.3 and 24 days. Our results imply that both stars are expected to have a dynamical magnetosphere, so the magnetic field is not able to support a circumstellar disk. We also conclude that both stars are most likely core hydrogen burning and that they have spent more than 2/3 of their main sequence lifetime. A histogram of the distribution of the dipolar magnetic field strength for the magnetic massive stars known to date does not show the magnetic field "desert" observed instead for intermediate-mass stars. The biases involved in the detection of (weak) magnetic fields in massive stars with the currently available instrumentation and techniques imply that weak fields might be more common than currently observed. Our results show that, if present, even relatively weak magnetic fields are detectable in massive stars and that more observational effort is probably still needed to properly access the magnetic field incidence.
Aims. Massive B-type stars with strong magnetic fields and fast rotation are very rare and pose a mystery for theories of star formation and magnetic field evolution. Only two such stars, called sigma Ori E analogues, were known until recently. A team involved in APOGEE, one of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III programs, announced the discovery of two additional rigidly rotating magnetosphere stars, HD 23478 and HD 345439. The magnetic fields in these newly discovered sOri E analogues have not been investigated so far.
Methods. In the framework of our ESO Large Programme and one normal ESO programme, we carried out low-resolution FORS 2 spectropolarimetric observations of HD 23478 and HD 345439.
Results. In the measurements of hydrogen lines, we discover a rather strong longitudinal magnetic field of up to 1.5 kG in HD 23478 and up to 1.3 kG using the entire spectrum. The analysis of HD 345439 using four subsequent spectropolarimetric subexposures does not reveal a magnetic field at a significance level of 3 sigma. On the other hand, individual subexposures indicate that HD 345439 may host a strong magnetic field that rapidly varies over 88 min. The fast rotation of HD 345439 is also indicated by the behaviour of several metallic and He I lines in the low-resolution FORS 2 spectra that show profile variations already on this short time-scale.