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We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Nino event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near- surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling
Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) produces carbon-rich nano-micro size particles. In this study, magnetic hydrochar (MHC) was prepared from model compound cellulose by simply adding ferrites during HTC. The effects of ferrites on HTC were evaluated by characterizing solid MHC and corresponding process liquid. Additionally, magnetic stability of MHC was tested by magnetic susceptibility method. Finally, MHC was used as support media for anaerobic films in anaerobic digestion (AD). Ash-free mass yield was around 50% less in MHC than hydrochar produced without ferrites at any certain HTC reaction condition, where organic part of MHC is mainly carbon. In fact, amorphous hydrochar was growing on the surface of inorganic ferrites. MHC maintained magnetic susceptibility regardless of reaction time at reaction temperature 250 degrees C. Pronounced inhibitory effects of magnetic hydrochar occurred during start-up of AD but diminished with prolong AD times. Visible biofilms were observed on the MHC by laser scanning microscope after AD. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Endosulfan - an agricultural insecticide and banned by Stockholm Convention - is produced as a 2:1 to 7:3 mixture of isomers endosulfan I (ESI) and endosulfan II (ESII). Endosulfan is transformed under aerobic conditions into endosulfan sulfate (ESS). The study shows for 76 sampling locations in German forests that endosulfan is abundant in all samples with an opposite ratio between the ESI and ESII than the technical product, where the main metabolite ESS is found with even higher abundance. The ratio between ESI/ESII and ESS show clear dependence on the type of stands (coniferous vs. deciduous) and humus type and increases from deciduous via mixed to coniferous forest stands. The study argues for a systematic monitoring of ESI, ESII, and ESS and underlines the need for further research, specifically on the fate of endosulfan including biomagnifications and bioaccumulation in soil. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour.
We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate).
Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case.
At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.
Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour.
We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate).
Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case.
At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.
Coral reefs are tropic to subtropic, coastal ecosystems comprising very diverse organisms. Late Quaternary reef deposits are fossil archives of environmental, tectonic and eustatic variations that can be used to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and paleoceano-graphic history of the tropic surface oceans. Reefs located at the latitudinal limits of coral-reef ecosystems (i.e. those at coral-reef fronts) are particularly sensitive to environmental changes-especially those associated with glacial-interglacial changes in climate and sealevel. We propose a land and ocean scientific drilling campaign in the Ryukyu Islands (the Ryukyus) in the northwestern Pacific Ocean to investigate the dynamic response of the corals and coral-reef ecosystems in this region to Late Quaternary climate and sealevel change. Such a drilling campaign, which we call the COREF (coral-reef front) Project, will allow the following three major questions to be evaluated: (i) What are the nature, magnitude and driving mechanisms of coral-reef front migration in the Ryukyus? (ii) What is the ecosystem response of coral reefs in the Ryukyus to Quaternary climate changes? (iii) What is the role of coral reefs in the global carbon cycle? Subsidiary objectives include (i) the timing of coral-reef initiation in the Ryukyus and its causes; (ii) the position of the Kuroshio current during glacial periods and its effects on coral-reef formation; and (iii) early carbonate diagenetic responses as a function of compounded variations in climate, eustacy and depositional mineralogies (subtropic aragonitic to warm-temperate calcitic). The geographic, climatic and oceanographic settings of the Ryukyu Islands provide an ideal natural laboratory to address each of these research questions.