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The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i. e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.
In Germany, active bat rabies surveillance was conducted between 1993 and 2012. A total of 4546 oropharyngeal swab samples from 18 bat species were screened for the presence of EBLV-1- , EBLV-2- and BBLV-specific RNA. Overall, 0 center dot 15% of oropharyngeal swab samples tested EBLV-1 positive, with the majority originating from Eptesicus serotinus. Interestingly, out of seven RT-PCR-positive oropharyngeal swabs subjected to virus isolation, viable virus was isolated from a single serotine bat (E. serotinus). Additionally, about 1226 blood samples were tested serologically, and varying virus neutralizing antibody titres were found in at least eight different bat species. The detection of viral RNA and seroconversion in repeatedly sampled serotine bats indicates long-term circulation of the virus in a particular bat colony. The limitations of random-based active bat rabies surveillance over passive bat rabies surveillance and its possible application of targeted approaches for future research activities on bat lyssavirus dynamics and maintenance are discussed.
Commentary
(2015)
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 degrees C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 degrees C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70% by 2100 for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9% to 17% between 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 degrees C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. In a 1.5 degrees C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30% compared to a 2 degrees C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming.
Background
Non-invasive transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation (taVNS) has received tremendous attention as a potential neuromodulator of cognitive and affective functions, which likely exerts its effects via activation of the locus coeruleus-noradrenaline (LC-NA) system. Reliable effects of taVNS on markers of LC-NA system activity, however, have not been demonstrated yet.
Methods
The aim of the present study was to overcome previous limitations by pooling raw data from a large sample of ten taVNS studies (371 healthy participants) that collected salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) as a potential marker of central NA release.
Results
While a meta-analytic approach using summary statistics did not yield any significant effects, linear mixed model analyses showed that afferent stimulation of the vagus nerve via taVNS increased sAA levels compared to sham stimulation (b = 0.16, SE = 0.05, p = 0.001). When considering potential confounders of sAA, we further replicated previous findings on the diurnal trajectory of sAA activity.
Conclusion(s)
Vagal activation via taVNS increases sAA release compared to sham stimulation, which likely substantiates the assumption that taVNS triggers NA release. Moreover, our results highlight the benefits of data pooling and data sharing in order to allow stronger conclusions in research.
Although school climate and self-efficacy have received some attention in the literature, as correlates of students’ willingness to intervene in bullying, to date, very little is known about the potential mediating role of self-efficacy in the relationship between classroom climate and students’ willingness to intervene in bullying. To this end, the present study analyzes whether the relationship between classroom cohesion (as one facet of classroom climate) and students’ willingness to intervene in bullying situations is mediated by self-efficacy in social conflicts. This study is based on a representative stratified random sample of two thousand and seventy-one students (51.3% male), between the ages of twelve and seventeen, from twenty-four schools in Germany. Results showed that between 43% and 48% of students reported that they would not intervene in bullying. A mediation test using the structural equation modeling framework revealed that classroom cohesion and self-efficacy in social conflicts were directly associated with students’ willingness to intervene in bullying situations. Furthermore, classroom cohesion was indirectly associated with higher levels of students’ willingness to intervene in bullying situations, due to self-efficacy in social conflicts. We thus conclude that: (1) It is crucial to increase students’ willingness to intervene in bullying; (2) efforts to increase students’ willingness to intervene in bullying should promote students’ confidence in dealing with social conflicts and interpersonal relationships; and (3) self-efficacy plays an important role in understanding the relationship between classroom cohesion and students’ willingness to intervene in bullying. Recommendations are provided to help increase adolescents’ willingness to intervene in bullying and for future research.