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Beyond technology
(2022)
This article enriches the existing literature on the importance and role of the social sciences and humanities (SSH) in renewable energy sources research by providing a novel approach to instigating the future research agenda in this field. Employing a series of in-depth interviews, deliberative focus group workshops and a systematic horizon scanning process, which utilised the expert knowledge of 85 researchers from the field with diverse disciplinary backgrounds and expertise, the paper develops a set of 100 priority questions for future research within SSH scholarship on renewable energy sources. These questions were aggregated into four main directions: (i) deep transformations and connections to the broader economic system (i.e. radical ways of (re)arranging socio-technical, political and economic relations), (ii) cultural and geographical diversity (i.e. contextual cultural, historical, political and socio-economic factors influencing citizen support for energy transitions), (iii) complexifying energy governance (i.e. understanding energy systems from a systems dynamics perspective) and (iv) shifting from instrumental acceptance to value-based objectives (i.e. public support for energy transitions as a normative notion linked to trust-building and citizen engagement). While this agenda is not intended to be—and cannot be—exhaustive or exclusive, we argue that it advances the understanding of SSH research on renewable energy sources and may have important value in the prioritisation of SSH themes needed to enrich dialogues between policymakers, funding institutions and researchers. SSH scholarship should not be treated as instrumental to other research on renewable energy but as intrinsic and of the same hierarchical importance.
Background:
Digital therapeutic care apps provide a new effective and scalable approach for people with nonspecific low back pain (LBP). Digital therapeutic care apps are also driven by personalized decision-support interventions that support the user in self-managing LBP, and may induce prolonged behavior change to reduce the frequency and intensity of pain episodes. However, these therapeutic apps are associated with high attrition rates, and the initial prescription cost is higher than that of face-to-face physiotherapy. In Germany, digital therapeutic care apps are now being reimbursed by statutory health insurance; however, price targets and cost-driving factors for the formation of the reimbursement rate remain unexplored.
Objective:
The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a digital therapeutic care app compared to treatment as usual (TAU) in Germany. We further aimed to explore under which circumstances the reimbursement rate could be modified to consider value-based pricing.
Methods:
We developed a state-transition Markov model based on a best-practice analysis of prior LBP-related decision-analytic models, and evaluated the cost utility of a digital therapeutic care app compared to TAU in Germany. Based on a 3-year time horizon, we simulated the incremental cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for people with nonacute LBP from the societal perspective. In the deterministic sensitivity and scenario analyses, we focused on diverging attrition rates and app cost to assess our model's robustness and conditions for changing the reimbursement rate. All costs are reported in Euro (euro1=US $1.12).
Results:
Our base case results indicated that the digital therapeutic care strategy led to an incremental cost of euro121.59, but also generated 0.0221 additional QALYs compared to the TAU strategy, with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of euro5486 per QALY. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the reimbursement rate and the capability of digital therapeutic care to prevent reoccurring LBP episodes have a significant impact on the ICER. At the same time, the other parameters remained unaffected and thus supported the robustness of our model. In the scenario analysis, the different model time horizons and attrition rates strongly influenced the economic outcome. Reducing the cost of the app to euro99 per 3 months or decreasing the app's attrition rate resulted in digital therapeutic care being significantly less costly with more generated QALYs, and is thus considered to be the dominant strategy over TAU.
Conclusions:
The current reimbursement rate for a digital therapeutic care app in the statutory health insurance can be considered a cost-effective measure compared to TAU. The app's attrition rate and effect on the patient's prolonged behavior change essentially influence the settlement of an appropriate reimbursement rate. Future value-based pricing targets should focus on additional outcome parameters besides pain intensity and functional disability by including attrition rates and the app's long-term effect on quality of life.
In organic solar cells, the resulting device efficiency depends strongly on the local morphology and intermolecular interactions of the blend film. Optical spectroscopy was used to identify the spectral signatures of interacting chromophores in blend films of the donor polymer PM6 with two state-of-the-art nonfullerene acceptors, Y6 and N4, which differ merely in the branching point of the side chain. From temperature-dependent absorption and luminescence spectroscopy in solution, it is inferred that both acceptor materials form two types of aggregates that differ in their interaction energy. Y6 forms an aggregate with a predominant J-type character in solution, while for N4 molecules the interaction is predominantly in a H-like manner in solution and freshly spin-cast film, yet the molecules reorient with respect to each other with time or thermal annealing to adopt a more J-type interaction. The different aggregation behavior of the acceptor materials is also reflected in the blend films and accounts for the different solar cell efficiencies reported with the two blends.
Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one-to- one genotype–phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual-based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directiona
climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many-to- one genotype–phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation—compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism—even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations produing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast.
Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).
This review provides a synthesis of current knowledge on the morphological and functional traits of testate amoebae, a polyphyletic group of protists commonly used as proxies of past hydrological changes in paleoecological investigations from peatland, lake sediment and soil archives. A trait-based approach to understanding testate amoebae ecology and paleoecology has gained in popularity in recent years, with research showing that morphological characteristics provide complementary information to the commonly used environmental inferences based on testate amoeba (morpho-)species data. We provide a broad overview of testate amoeba morphological and functional traits and trait-environment relationships in the context of ecology, evolution, genetics, biogeography, and paleoecology. As examples we report upon previous ecological and paleoecological studies that used trait-based approaches, and describe key testate amoebae traits that can be used to improve the interpretation of environmental studies. We also highlight knowledge gaps and speculate on potential future directions for the application of trait-based approaches in testate amoeba research.
ISMIP6 Antarctica
(2020)
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
High spectral resolution transmission spectroscopy is a powerful tool to characterize exoplanet atmospheres. Especially for hot Jupiters, this technique is highly relevant, due to their high-altitude absorption, e.g. from resonant sodium (Na i) and potassium (K i) lines. We resolve the atmospheric K i absorption on HD189733b with the aim to compare the resolved K i line and previously obtained high-resolution Na i-D line observations with synthetic transmission spectra. The line profiles suggest atmospheric processes leading to a line broadening of the order of ∼10 km/s for the Na i-D lines and only a few km/s for the K i line. The investigation hints that either the atmosphere of HD189733b lacks a significant amount of K i or the alkali lines probe different atmospheric regions with different temperature, which could explain the differences we see in the resolved absorption lines.
This paper discusses the full structural solution of the hybrid perovskite formamidinium lead tribromide (FAPbBr(3)) and its temperature-dependent phase transitions in the range from 3 K to 300 K using neutron powder diffraction and synchrotron X-ray diffraction. Special emphasis is put on the influence of deuteration on formamidinium, its position in the unit cell and disordering in comparison to fully hydrogenated FAPbBr(3). The temperature-dependent measurements show that deuteration critically influences the crystal structures, i.e. results in partially-ordered temperature-dependent structural modifications in which two symmetry-independent molecule positions with additional dislocation of the molecular centre atom and molecular angle inclinations are present.
Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT) tasks examine the influence of Pavlovian stimuli on ongoing instrumental behaviour. Previous studies reported associations between a strong PIT effect, high-risk drinking and alcohol use disorder. This study investigated whether susceptibility to interference between Pavlovian and instrumental control is linked to risky alcohol use in a community sample of 18-year-old male adults. Participants (N = 191) were instructed to 'collect good shells' and 'leave bad shells' during the presentation of appetitive (monetary reward), aversive (monetary loss) or neutral Pavlovian stimuli. We compared instrumental error rates (ER) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) brain responses between the congruent and incongruent conditions, as well as among high-risk and low-risk drinking groups. On average, individuals showed a substantial PIT effect, that is, increased ER when Pavlovian cues and instrumental stimuli were in conflict compared with congruent trials. Neural PIT correlates were found in the ventral striatum and the dorsomedial and lateral prefrontal cortices (lPFC). Importantly, high-risk drinking was associated with a stronger behavioural PIT effect, a decreased lPFC response and an increased neural response in the ventral striatum on the trend level. Moreover, high-risk drinkers showed weaker connectivity from the ventral striatum to the lPFC during incongruent trials. Our study links interference during PIT to drinking behaviour in healthy, young adults. High-risk drinkers showed higher susceptibility to Pavlovian cues, especially when they conflicted with instrumental behaviour, indicating lower interference control abilities. Increased activity in the ventral striatum (bottom-up), decreased lPFC response (top-down), and their altered interplay may contribute to poor interference control in the high-risk drinkers.
Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.
Rats are a reservoir of human- and livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). However, the composition of the natural S. aureus population in wild and laboratory rats is largely unknown. Here, 144 nasal S. aureus isolates from free-living wild rats, captive wild rats and laboratory rats were genotyped and profiled for antibiotic resistances and human-specific virulence genes. The nasal S. aureus carriage rate was higher among wild rats (23.4%) than laboratory rats (12.3%). Free-living wild rats were primarily colonized with isolates of clonal complex (CC) 49 and CC130 and maintained these strains even in husbandry. Moreover, upon livestock contact, CC398 isolates were acquired. In contrast, laboratory rats were colonized with many different S. aureus lineages—many of which are commonly found in humans. Five captive wild rats were colonized with CC398-MRSA. Moreover, a single CC30-MRSA and two CC130-MRSA were detected in free-living or captive wild rats. Rat-derived S. aureus isolates rarely harbored the phage-carried immune evasion gene cluster or superantigen genes, suggesting long-term adaptation to their host. Taken together, our study revealed a natural S. aureus population in wild rats, as well as a colonization pressure on wild and laboratory rats by exposure to livestock- and human-associated S. aureus, respectively.
We recently demonstrated that the sympathetic nervous system can be voluntarily activated following a training program consisting of cold exposure, breathing exercises, and meditation. This resulted in profound attenuation of the systemic inflammatory response elicited by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration. Herein, we assessed whether this training program affects the plasma metabolome and if these changes are linked to the immunomodulatory effects observed. A total of 224 metabolites were identified in plasma obtained from 24 healthy male volunteers at six timepoints, of which 98 were significantly altered following LPS administration. Effects of the training program were most prominent shortly after initiation of the acquired breathing exercises but prior to LPS administration, and point towards increased activation of the Cori cycle. Elevated concentrations of lactate and pyruvate in trained individuals correlated with enhanced levels of anti-inflammatory interleukin (IL)-10. In vitro validation experiments revealed that co-incubation with lactate and pyruvate enhances IL-10 production and attenuates the release of pro-inflammatory IL-1 beta and IL-6 by LPS-stimulated leukocytes. Our results demonstrate that practicing the breathing exercises acquired during the training program results in increased activity of the Cori cycle. Furthermore, this work uncovers an important role of lactate and pyruvate in the anti-inflammatory phenotype observed in trained subjects.
The size structure of autotroph communities - the relative abundance of small vs. large individuals - shapes the functioning of ecosystems. Whether common mechanisms underpin the size structure of unicellular and multicellular autotrophs is, however, unknown. Using a global data compilation, we show that individual body masses in tree and phytoplankton communities follow power-law distributions and that the average exponents of these individual size distributions (ISD) differ. Phytoplankton communities are characterized by an average ISD exponent consistent with three-quarter-power scaling of metabolism with body mass and equivalence in energy use among mass classes. Tree communities deviate from this pattern in a manner consistent with equivalence in energy use among diameter size classes. Our findings suggest that whilst universal metabolic constraints ultimately underlie the emergent size structure of autotroph communities, divergent aspects of body size (volumetric vs. linear dimensions) shape the ecological outcome of metabolic scaling in forest vs. pelagic ecosystems.
Electrospray ionization-ion mobility spectrometry was employed for the determination of collision cross sections (CCS) of 25 synthetically produced peptides in the mass range between 540-3310 Da. The experimental measurement of the CCS is complemented by their calculation applying two different methods. One prediction method is the intrinsic size parameter (ISP) method developed by the Clemmer group. The second new method is based on the evaluation of molecular dynamics (MD) simulation trajectories as a whole, resulting in a single, averaged collision cross-section value for a given peptide in the gas phase. A high temperature MD simulation is run in order to scan through the whole conformational space. The lower temperature conformational distribution is obtained through thermodynamic reweighting. In the first part, various correlations, e.g. CCS vs. mass and inverse mobility vs. m/z correlations, are presented. Differences in CCS between peptides are also discussed in terms of their respective mass and m/z differences, as well as their respective structures. In the second part, measured and calculated CCS are compared. The agreement between the prediction results and the experimental values is in the same range for both calculation methods. While the calculation effort of the ISP method is much lower, the MD method comprises several tools providing deeper insights into the conformations of peptides. Advantages and limitations of both methods are discussed. Based on the separation of two pairs of linear and cyclic peptides of virtually the same mass, the influence of the structure on the cross sections is discussed. The shift in cross section differences and peak shape after transition from the linear to the cyclic peptide can be well understood by applying different MD tools, e.g. the root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) and the root mean square fluctuation (RMSF). (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Changes in the steepness of river profiles or abrupt vertical steps (i.e. waterfalls) are thought to be indicative of changes in erosion rates, lithology or other factors that affect landscape evolution. These changes are referred to as knickpoints or knickzones and are pervasive in bedrock river systems. Such features are thought to reveal information about landscape evolution and patterns of erosion, and therefore their locations are often reported in the geomorphic literature. It is imperative that studies reporting knickpoints and knickzones use a reproducible method of quantifying their locations, as their number and spatial distribution play an important role in interpreting tectonically active landscapes. In this contribution we introduce a reproducible knickpoint and knickzone extraction algorithm that uses river profiles transformed by integrating drainage area along channel length (the so-called integral or chi method). The profile is then statistically segmented and the differing slopes and step changes in the elevations of these segments are used to identify knickpoints, knickzones and their relative magnitudes. The output locations of identified knickpoints and knickzones compare favourably with human mapping: we test the method on Santa Cruz Island, CA, using previously reported knickzones and also test the method against a new dataset from the Quadrilatero Ferrifero in Brazil. The algorithm allows for the extraction of varying knickpoint morphologies, including stepped, positive slope-break (concave upward) and negative slope-break knickpoints. We identify parameters that most affect the resulting knickpoint and knickzone locations and provide guidance for both usage and outputs of the method to produce reproducible knickpoint datasets.
Specialisation and diversity of multiple trophic groups are promoted by different forest features
(2019)
While forest management strongly influences biodiversity, it remains unclear how the structural and compositional changes caused by management affect different community dimensions (e.g. richness, specialisation, abundance or completeness) and how this differs between taxa. We assessed the effects of nine forest features (representing stand structure, heterogeneity and tree composition) on thirteen above- and belowground trophic groups of plants, animals, fungi and bacteria in 150 temperate forest plots differing in their management type. Canopy cover decreased light resources, which increased community specialisation but reduced overall diversity and abundance. Features increasing resource types and diversifying microhabitats (admixing of oaks and conifers) were important and mostly affected richness. Belowground groups responded differently to those aboveground and had weaker responses to most forest features. Our results show that we need to consider forest features rather than broad management types and highlight the importance of considering several groups and community dimensions to better inform conservation.
Under natural conditions, aboveground herbivory and plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) are omnipresent interactions strongly affecting individual plant performance. While recent research revealed that aboveground insect herbivory generally impacts the outcome of PSFs, no study tested to what extent the intensity of herbivory affects the outcome. This, however, is essential to estimate the contribution of PSFs to plant performance under natural conditions in the field. Here, we tested PSF effects both with and without exposure to aboveground herbivory for four common grass species in nine grasslands that formed a gradient of aboveground invertebrate herbivory. Without aboveground herbivores, PSFs for each of the four grass species were similar in each of the nine grasslands-both in direction and in magnitude. In the presence of herbivores, however, the PSFs differed from those measured under herbivory exclusion, and depended on the intensity of herbivory. At low levels of herbivory, PSFs were similar in the presence and absence of herbivores, but differed at high herbivory levels. While PSFs without herbivores remained similar along the gradient of herbivory intensity, increasing herbivory intensity mostly resulted in neutral PSFs in the presence of herbivores. This suggests that the relative importance of PSFs for plant-species performance in grassland communities decreases with increasing intensity of herbivory. Hence, PSFs might be more important for plant performance in ecosystems with low herbivore pressure than in ecosystems with large impacts of insect herbivores.
By using synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction, the temperature dependent phase diagram of the hybrid perovskite tri-halide compounds, methyl ammonium lead iodide (MAPbI3, MA+ = CH3NH3+) and methyl ammonium lead bromide (MAPbBr3), as well as of their solid solutions, has been established. The existence of a large miscibility gap between 0.29 ≤ x ≤ 0.92 (±0.02) for the MAPb(I1−xBrx)3 solid solution has been proven. A systematic study of the lattice parameters for the solid solution series at room temperature revealed distinct deviations from Vegard's law. Furthermore, temperature dependent measurements showed that a strong temperature dependency of lattice parameters from the composition is present for iodine rich compositions. In contrast, the bromine rich compositions show an unusually low dependency of the phase transition temperature from the degree of substitution.
Day length is a key indicator of seasonal information that determines major patterns of behavior in plants and animals. Photoperiodism has been described in plants for about 100 years, but the underlying molecular mechanisms of day length perception and signal transduction in many systems are not well understood. In trees, photoperiod perception plays a major role in growth cessation during the autumn as well as activating the resumption of shoot growth in the spring, both processes controlled by FLOWERING LOCUS T2 (FT2) expression levels and critical for the survival of perennial plants over winter [1-4]. It has been shown that the conserved role of poplar orthologs to Arabidopsis CONSTANS (CO) directly activates FT2 expression [1, 5]. Overexpression of poplar CO is, however, not sufficient to sustain FT2 expression under short days [5] , pointing to the presence of an additional short-day-dependent FT2 repression pathway in poplar. We find that night length information is transmitted via the expression level of a poplar clock gene, LATE ELONGATED HYPOCOTYL 2 (LHY2), which controls FT2 expression. Repression of FT2 is a function of the night extension and LHY2 expression level. We show that LHY2 is necessary and sufficient to activate night length repressive signaling. We propose that the photoperiodic control of shoot growth in poplar involves a balance between FT2 activating and repressing pathways. Our results show that poplar relies on night length measurement to determine photoperiodism through interaction between light signaling pathways and the circadian clock.