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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.
Gilbert et al. conclude that evidence from the Open Science Collaboration’s Reproducibility Project: Psychology indicates high reproducibility, given the study methodology. Their very optimistic assessment is limited by statistical misconceptions and by causal inferences from selectively interpreted, correlational data. Using the Reproducibility Project: Psychology data, both optimistic and pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility are possible, and neither are yet warranted.
Saturn’s main ring system is associated with a set of small moons that either are embedded within it or interact with the rings to alter their shape and composition. Five close flybys of the moons Pan, Daphnis, Atlas, Pandora, and Epimetheus were performed between December 2016 and April 2017 during the ring-grazing orbits of the Cassini mission. Data on the moons’ morphology, structure, particle environment, and composition were returned, along with images in the ultraviolet and thermal infrared. We find that the optical properties of the moons’ surfaces are determined by two competing processes: contamination by a red material formed in Saturn’s main ring system and accretion of bright icy particles or water vapor from volcanic plumes originating on the moon Enceladus.
The functionality of organic semiconductor devices crucially depends on molecular energies, namely the ionisation energy and the electron affinity. Ionisation energy and electron affinity values of thin films are, however, sensitive to film morphology and composition, making their prediction challenging. In a combined experimental and simulation study on zinc-phthalocyanine and its fluorinated derivatives, we show that changes in ionisation energy as a function of molecular orientation in neat films or mixing ratio in blends are proportional to the molecular quadrupole component along the p-p-stacking direction. We apply these findings to organic solar cells and demonstrate how the electrostatic interactions can be tuned to optimise the energy of the charge-transfer state at the donor-acceptor interface and the dissociation barrier for free charge carrier generation. The confirmation of the correlation between interfacial energies and quadrupole moments for other materials indicates its relevance for small molecules and polymers.
Neisseria gonorrhoeae is one of the most prevalent sexually transmitted diseases worldwide with more than 100 million new infections per year. A lack of intense research over the last decades and increasing resistances to the recommended antibiotics call for a better understanding of gonococcal infection, fast diagnostics and therapeutic measures against N. gonorrhoeae. Therefore, the aim of this work was to identify novel immunogenic proteins as a first step to advance those unresolved problems. For the identification of immunogenic proteins, pHORF oligopeptide phage display libraries of the entire N. gonorrhoeae genome were constructed. Several immunogenic oligopeptides were identified using polyclonal rabbit antibodies against N. gonorrhoeae. Corresponding full-length proteins of the identified oligopeptides were expressed and their immunogenic character was verified by ELISA. The immunogenic character of six proteins was identified for the first time. Additional 13 proteins were verified as immunogenic proteins in N. gonorrhoeae.
Neisseria gonorrhoeae is one of the most prevalent sexually transmitted diseases worldwide with more than 100 million new infections per year. A lack of intense research over the last decades and increasing resistances to the recommended antibiotics call for a better understanding of gonococcal infection, fast diagnostics and therapeutic measures against N. gonorrhoeae. Therefore, the aim of this work was to identify novel immunogenic proteins as a first step to advance those unresolved problems. For the identification of immunogenic proteins, pHORF oligopeptide phage display libraries of the entire N. gonorrhoeae genome were constructed. Several immunogenic oligopeptides were identified using polyclonal rabbit antibodies against N. gonorrhoeae. Corresponding full-length proteins of the identified oligopeptides were expressed and their immunogenic character was verified by ELISA. The immunogenic character of six proteins was identified for the first time. Additional 13 proteins were verified as immunogenic proteins in N. gonorrhoeae.
The concept of bonding and antibonding orbitals is fundamental in chemistry. The population of those orbitals and the energetic difference between the two reflect the strength of the bonding interaction. Weakening the bond is expected to reduce this energetic splitting, but the transient character of bond-activation has so far prohibited direct experimental access. Here we apply time-resolved soft X-ray spectroscopy at a free electron laser to directly observe the decreased bonding antibonding splitting following bond-activation using an ultrashort optical laser pulse.
ISMIP6 Antarctica
(2020)
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.