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- BL Lacertae objects: individual (BL Lacertae = VER J2202+422) (1)
- BL Lacertae objects: individual (HESS J1943+213, VER J1943+213) (1)
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Background:
COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking.
Objective:
The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points.
Methods:
We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions.
Results:
Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction.
Conclusions:
We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.
New global maps of the five inner midsize icy saturnian satellites, Mimas, Enceladus, Tethys, Dione, and Rhea, have been constructed in three colors (UV, Green and near-IR) at resolutions of 1 km/pixel. The maps reveal prominent global patterns common to several of these satellites but also three major color features unique to specific satellites or satellite subgroups. The most common features among the group are first-order global asymmetries in color properties. This pattern, expressed on Tethys, Dione and Rhea, takes the form of a similar to 1.4-1.8 times enhancement in redness (expressed as IR/UV ratio) of the surface at the center of the trailing hemisphere of motion, and a similar though significantly weaker IR/UV enhancement at the center of the leading hemisphere. The peak in redness on the trailing hemisphere also corresponds to a known decrease in albedo. These double hemispheric asymmetries are attributable to plasma and E-ring grain bombardment on the trailing and leading hemispheres, respectively, for the outer three satellites Tethys, Dione and Rhea, whereas as E-ring bombardment may be focused on the trailing hemisphere of Mimas due to its orbital location interior to Enceladus. The maps also reveal three major deviations from these basic global patterns. We observe the previously known dark bluish leading hemisphere equatorial band on Tethys but have also discovered a similar band on Mimas. Similar in shape, both features match the surface patterns expected for irradiation of the surface by incident MeV electrons that drift in a direction opposite to the plasma flow. The global asymmetry on Enceladus is offset similar to 40 degrees to the west compared to the other satellites. We do not consider Enceladus in detail here, but the global distribution of bluish material can be shown to match the deposition pattern predicted for plume fallback onto the surface (Kempf, S., Beckmann, U., Schmidt, S. [2010]. Icarus 206, 446-457. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2009.09.016). E-ring deposition on Enceladus thus appears to mask or prevent the formation of the lenses and hemispheric asymmetries we see on the other satellites. Finally, we observe a chain of discrete bluish splotches along the equator of Rhea. Unlike the equatorial bands of Tethys and Mimas, these splotches form a very narrow great circle <= 10-km wide (north-to-south) and appear to be related to surface disruption, exposing fresh, bluish ice on older crater rims. This feature is unique to Rhea and may have formed by impact onto its surface of orbiting material.
The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds are unique local laboratories for studying the formation and evolution of small galaxies in exquisite detail. The Survey of the MAgellanic Stellar History (SMASH) is an NOAO community Dark Energy Camera (DECam) survey of the Clouds mapping 480 deg2 (distributed over similar to 2400 square degrees at similar to 20% filling factor) to similar to 24th. mag in ugriz. The primary goals of SMASH are to identify low surface brightness stellar populations associated with the stellar halos and tidal debris of the Clouds, and to derive spatially resolved star formation histories. Here, we present a summary of the survey, its data reduction, and a description of the first public Data Release (DR1). The SMASH DECam data have been reduced with a combination of the NOAO Community Pipeline, the PHOTRED automated point-spread-function photometry pipeline, and custom calibration software. The astrometric precision is similar to 15 mas and the accuracy is similar to 2 mas with respect to the Gaia reference frame. The photometric precision is similar to 0.5%-0.7% in griz and similar to 1% in u with a calibration accuracy of similar to 1.3% in all bands. The median 5s point source depths in ugriz are 23.9, 24.8, 24.5, 24.2, and 23.5 mag. The SMASH data have already been used to discover the Hydra II Milky Way satellite, the SMASH 1 old globular cluster likely associated with the LMC, and extended stellar populations around the LMC out to R. similar to. 18.4 kpc. SMASH DR1 contains measurements of similar to 100 million objects distributed in 61 fields. A prototype version of the NOAO Data Lab provides data access and exploration tools.
By traversing the plume erupting from high southern latitudes on Saturn's moon Enceladus, Cassini orbiter instruments can directly sample the material therein. Cassini Plasma Spectrometer, CAPS, data show that a major plume component comprises previously-undetected particles of nanometer scales and larger that bridge the mass gap between previously observed gaseous species and solid icy grains. This population is electrically charged both negative and positive, indicating that subsurface triboelectric charging, i.e., contact electrification of condensed plume material may occur through mutual collisions within vents. The electric field of Saturn's magnetosphere controls the jets' morphologies, separating particles according to mass and charge. Fine-scale structuring of these particles' spatial distribution correlates with discrete plume jets' sources, and reveals locations of other possible active regions. The observed plume population likely forms a major component of high velocity nanometer particle streams detected outside Saturn's magnetosphere.
HESS J1943+213
(2018)
HESS J1943+213 is a very high energy (VHE; > 100 GeV) gamma-ray source in the direction of the Galactic plane. Studies exploring the classification of the source are converging toward its identification as an extreme synchrotron BL Lac object. Here we present 38 hr of VERITAS observations of HESS J1943+213 taken over 2 yr. The source is detected with a significance of similar to 20 standard deviations, showing a remarkably stable flux and spectrum in VHE gamma-rays. Multifrequency Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) observations of the source confirm the extended, jet-like structure previously found in the 1.6 GHz band with the European VLBI Network and detect this component in the 4.6 and 7.3 GHz bands. The radio spectral indices of the core and the jet and the level of polarization derived from the VLBA observations are in a range typical for blazars. Data from VERITAS, Fermi-LAT, Swift-XRT, the FLWO 48 ' telescope, and archival infrared and hard X-ray observations are used to construct and model the spectral energy distribution (SED) of the source with a synchrotron self-Compton model. The well-measured gamma-ray peak of the SED with VERITAS and Fermi-LAT provides constraining upper limits on the source redshift. Possible contribution of secondary gamma-rays from ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray-initiated electromagnetic cascades to the gamma-ray emission is explored, finding that only a segment of the VHE spectrum can be accommodated with this process. A variability search is performed across X-ray and gamma-ray bands. No statistically significant flux or spectral variability is detected.
A Search for Pulsed Very High-energy Gamma-Rays from 13 Young Pulsars in Archival VERITAS Data
(2019)
We conduct a search for periodic emission in the very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray band (E > 100 GeV) from a total of 13 pulsars in an archival VERITAS data set with a total exposure of over 450 hr. The set of pulsars includes many of the brightest young gamma-ray pulsars visible in the Northern Hemisphere. The data analysis resulted in nondetections of pulsed VHE gamma-rays from each pulsar. Upper limits on a potential VHE gamma-ray flux are derived at the 95% confidence level above three energy thresholds using two methods. These are the first such searches for pulsed VHE emission from each of the pulsars, and the obtained limits constrain a possible flux component manifesting at VHEs as is seen for the Crab pulsar.
We present a new measurement of the energy spectrum of iron nuclei in cosmic rays from 20 TeV to 500 TeV; The measurement makes use of a template-based analysis method, which, for the first time, is applied to the energy reconstruction of iron-induced air showers recorded by the VERITAS array of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. The event selection makes use of the direct Cherenkov light which is emitted by charged particles before the first interaction, as well as other parameters related to the shape of the recorded air shower images. The measured spectrum is well described by a power law dF/dE = f(0) center dot (E/E-0)(-gamma) over the full energy range, with gamma = 2.82 +/- 0.30(stat)(-0.27)(+0.24)(syst) and f(0) = (4.82 +/- 0.98(stat)(-2.70)(+2.12)(syst)) x 10(-7) m(-2) s(-1) TeV-1 sr(-1) at E-0 = 50 TeV, with no indication of a cutoff or spectral break. The measured differential flux is compatible with previous results, with improved statistical uncertainty at the highest energies.
Cosmic-ray electrons and positrons (CREs) at GeV-TeV energies are a unique probe of our local Galactic neighborhood. CREs lose energy rapidly via synchrotron radiation and inverse-Compton scattering processes while propagating within the Galaxy, and these losses limit their propagation distance. For electrons with TeV energies, the limit is on the order of a kiloparsec. Within that distance, there are only a few known astrophysical objects capable of accelerating electrons to such high energies. It is also possible that the CREs are the products of the annihilation or decay of heavy dark matter (DM) particles. VERITAS, an array of imaging air Cherenkov telescopes in southern Arizona, is primarily utilized for gamma-ray astronomy but also simultaneously collects CREs during all observations. We describe our methods of identifying CREs in VERITAS data and present an energy spectrum, extending from 300 GeV to 5 TeV, obtained from approximately 300 hours of observations. A single power-law fit is ruled out in VERITAS data. We find that the spectrum of CREs is consistent with a broken power law, with a break energy at 710 +/- 40(stat) +/- 140(syst) GeV.
We present very-high-energy gamma-ray observations of the BL Lac object 1ES 2344+514 taken by the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System between 2007 and 2015. 1ES 2344+514 is detected with a statistical significance above the background of 20.8 sigma in 47.2 h (livetime) of observations, making this the most comprehensive very-high-energy study of 1ES 2344+514 to date. Using these observations, the temporal properties of 1ES 2344+514 are studied on short and long times-scales. We fit a constant-flux model to nightly and seasonally binned light curves and apply a fractional variability test to determine the stability of the source on different time-scales. We reject the constant-flux model for the 2007-2008 and 2014-2015 nightly binned light curves and for the long-term seasonally binned light curve at the > 3 sigma level. The spectra of the time-averaged emission before and after correction for attenuation by the extragalactic background light are obtained. The observed time-averaged spectrum above 200 GeV is satisfactorily fitted (x(2)/NDF = 7.89/6) by a power-law function with an index Gamma = 2.46 +/- 0.06(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and extends to at least 8 TeV. The extragalactic-backgroundlight-deabsorbed spectrum is adequately fit (x(2)/NDF = 6.73/6) by a power-law function with an index Gamma = 2.15 +/- 0.06(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) while an F-test indicates that the power law with an exponential cut-off function provides a marginally better fit (x(2)/NDF = 2.56/5) at the 2.1 sigma level. The source location is found to be consistent with the published radio location and its spatial extent is consistent with a point source.
Aims. We aim to characterize the multiwavelength emission from Markarian 501 (Mrk 501), quantify the energy-dependent variability, study the potential multiband correlations, and describe the temporal evolution of the broadband emission within leptonic theoretical scenarios. Methods. We organized a multiwavelength campaign to take place between March and July of 2012. Excellent temporal coverage was obtained with more than 25 instruments, including the MAGIC, FACT and VERITAS Cherenkov telescopes, the instruments on board the Swift and Fermi spacecraft, and the telescopes operated by the GASP-WEBT collaboration. Results. Mrk 501 showed a very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray flux above 0.2 TeV of similar to 0.5 times the Crab Nebula flux (CU) for most of the campaign. The highest activity occurred on 2012 June 9, when the VHE flux was similar to 3 CU, and the peak of the high-energy spectral component was found to be at similar to 2 TeV. Both the X-ray and VHE gamma-ray spectral slopes were measured to be extremely hard, with spectral indices <2 during most of the observing campaign, regardless of the X-ray and VHE flux. This study reports the hardest Mrk 501 VHE spectra measured to date. The fractional variability was found to increase with energy, with the highest variability occurring at VHE. Using the complete data set, we found correlation between the X-ray and VHE bands; however, if the June 9 flare is excluded, the correlation disappears (significance <3 sigma) despite the existence of substantial variability in the X-ray and VHE bands throughout the campaign. Conclusions. The unprecedentedly hard X-ray and VHE spectra measured imply that their low- and high-energy components peaked above 5 keV and 0.5 TeV, respectively, during a large fraction of the observing campaign, and hence that Mrk 501 behaved like an extreme high-frequency-peaked blazar (EHBL) throughout the 2012 observing season. This suggests that being an EHBL may not be a permanent characteristic of a blazar, but rather a state which may change over time. The data set acquired shows that the broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) of Mrk 501, and its transient evolution, is very complex, requiring, within the framework of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models, various emission regions for a satisfactory description. Nevertheless the one-zone SSC scenario can successfully describe the segments of the SED where most energy is emitted, with a significant correlation between the electron energy density and the VHE gamma-ray activity, suggesting that most of the variability may be explained by the injection of high-energy electrons. The one-zone SSC scenario used reproduces the behavior seen between the measured X-ray and VHE gamma-ray fluxes, and predicts that the correlation becomes stronger with increasing energy of the X-rays.