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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds are unique local laboratories for studying the formation and evolution of small galaxies in exquisite detail. The Survey of the MAgellanic Stellar History (SMASH) is an NOAO community Dark Energy Camera (DECam) survey of the Clouds mapping 480 deg2 (distributed over similar to 2400 square degrees at similar to 20% filling factor) to similar to 24th. mag in ugriz. The primary goals of SMASH are to identify low surface brightness stellar populations associated with the stellar halos and tidal debris of the Clouds, and to derive spatially resolved star formation histories. Here, we present a summary of the survey, its data reduction, and a description of the first public Data Release (DR1). The SMASH DECam data have been reduced with a combination of the NOAO Community Pipeline, the PHOTRED automated point-spread-function photometry pipeline, and custom calibration software. The astrometric precision is similar to 15 mas and the accuracy is similar to 2 mas with respect to the Gaia reference frame. The photometric precision is similar to 0.5%-0.7% in griz and similar to 1% in u with a calibration accuracy of similar to 1.3% in all bands. The median 5s point source depths in ugriz are 23.9, 24.8, 24.5, 24.2, and 23.5 mag. The SMASH data have already been used to discover the Hydra II Milky Way satellite, the SMASH 1 old globular cluster likely associated with the LMC, and extended stellar populations around the LMC out to R. similar to. 18.4 kpc. SMASH DR1 contains measurements of similar to 100 million objects distributed in 61 fields. A prototype version of the NOAO Data Lab provides data access and exploration tools.
VERITAS and Fermi-LAT Observations of TeV Gamma-Ray Sources Discovered by HAWC in the 2HWC Catalog
(2018)
The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) collaboration recently published their 2HWC catalog, listing 39 very high energy (VHE; >100 GeV) gamma-ray sources based on 507 days of observation. Among these, 19 sources are not associated with previously known teraelectronvolt (TeV) gamma-ray sources. We have studied 14 of these sources without known counterparts with VERITAS and Fermi-LAT. VERITAS detected weak gamma-ray emission in the 1 TeV-30 TeV band in the region of DA 495, a pulsar wind nebula coinciding with 2HWC J1953+294, confirming the discovery of the source by HAWC. We did not find any counterpart for the selected 14 new HAWC sources from our analysis of Fermi-LAT data for energies higher than 10 GeV. During the search, we detected gigaelectronvolt (GeV) gamma-ray emission coincident with a known TeV pulsar wind nebula, SNR G54.1+0.3 (VER J1930+188), and a 2HWC source, 2HWC J1930+188. The fluxes for isolated, steady sources in the 2HWC catalog are generally in good agreement with those measured by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. However, the VERITAS fluxes for SNR G54.1+0.3, DA 495, and TeV J2032+4130 are lower than those measured by HAWC, and several new HAWC sources are not detected by VERITAS. This is likely due to a change in spectral shape, source extension, or the influence of diffuse emission in the source region.
Aims. We aim to characterize the multiwavelength emission from Markarian 501 (Mrk 501), quantify the energy-dependent variability, study the potential multiband correlations, and describe the temporal evolution of the broadband emission within leptonic theoretical scenarios. Methods. We organized a multiwavelength campaign to take place between March and July of 2012. Excellent temporal coverage was obtained with more than 25 instruments, including the MAGIC, FACT and VERITAS Cherenkov telescopes, the instruments on board the Swift and Fermi spacecraft, and the telescopes operated by the GASP-WEBT collaboration. Results. Mrk 501 showed a very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray flux above 0.2 TeV of similar to 0.5 times the Crab Nebula flux (CU) for most of the campaign. The highest activity occurred on 2012 June 9, when the VHE flux was similar to 3 CU, and the peak of the high-energy spectral component was found to be at similar to 2 TeV. Both the X-ray and VHE gamma-ray spectral slopes were measured to be extremely hard, with spectral indices <2 during most of the observing campaign, regardless of the X-ray and VHE flux. This study reports the hardest Mrk 501 VHE spectra measured to date. The fractional variability was found to increase with energy, with the highest variability occurring at VHE. Using the complete data set, we found correlation between the X-ray and VHE bands; however, if the June 9 flare is excluded, the correlation disappears (significance <3 sigma) despite the existence of substantial variability in the X-ray and VHE bands throughout the campaign. Conclusions. The unprecedentedly hard X-ray and VHE spectra measured imply that their low- and high-energy components peaked above 5 keV and 0.5 TeV, respectively, during a large fraction of the observing campaign, and hence that Mrk 501 behaved like an extreme high-frequency-peaked blazar (EHBL) throughout the 2012 observing season. This suggests that being an EHBL may not be a permanent characteristic of a blazar, but rather a state which may change over time. The data set acquired shows that the broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) of Mrk 501, and its transient evolution, is very complex, requiring, within the framework of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models, various emission regions for a satisfactory description. Nevertheless the one-zone SSC scenario can successfully describe the segments of the SED where most energy is emitted, with a significant correlation between the electron energy density and the VHE gamma-ray activity, suggesting that most of the variability may be explained by the injection of high-energy electrons. The one-zone SSC scenario used reproduces the behavior seen between the measured X-ray and VHE gamma-ray fluxes, and predicts that the correlation becomes stronger with increasing energy of the X-rays.
By traversing the plume erupting from high southern latitudes on Saturn's moon Enceladus, Cassini orbiter instruments can directly sample the material therein. Cassini Plasma Spectrometer, CAPS, data show that a major plume component comprises previously-undetected particles of nanometer scales and larger that bridge the mass gap between previously observed gaseous species and solid icy grains. This population is electrically charged both negative and positive, indicating that subsurface triboelectric charging, i.e., contact electrification of condensed plume material may occur through mutual collisions within vents. The electric field of Saturn's magnetosphere controls the jets' morphologies, separating particles according to mass and charge. Fine-scale structuring of these particles' spatial distribution correlates with discrete plume jets' sources, and reveals locations of other possible active regions. The observed plume population likely forms a major component of high velocity nanometer particle streams detected outside Saturn's magnetosphere.
We present results from deep observations toward the Cygnus region using 300 hr of very high energy (VHE)gamma-ray data taken with the VERITAS Cerenkov telescope array and over 7 yr of high-energy.-ray data taken with the Fermi satellite at an energy above 1 GeV. As the brightest region of diffuse gamma-ray emission in the northern sky, the Cygnus region provides a promising area to probe the origins of cosmic rays. We report the identification of a potential Fermi-LAT counterpart to VER J2031+415 (TeV J2032+4130) and resolve the extended VHE source VER J2019+368 into two source candidates (VER J2018+367* and VER J2020+368*) and characterize their energy spectra. The Fermi-LAT morphology of 3FGL J2021.0+4031e (the Gamma Cygni supernova remnant) was examined, and a region of enhanced emission coincident with VER J2019+407 was identified and jointly fit with the VERITAS data. By modeling 3FGL J2015.6+3709 as two sources, one located at the location of the pulsar wind nebula CTB 87 and one at the quasar QSO J2015+371, a continuous spectrum from 1 GeV to 10 TeV was extracted for VER J2016+371 (CTB 87). An additional 71 locations coincident with Fermi-LAT sources and other potential objects of interest were tested for VHE gamma-ray emission, with no emission detected and upper limits on the differential flux placed at an average of 2.3% of the Crab Nebula flux. We interpret these observations in a multiwavelength context and present the most detailed gamma-ray view of the region to date.
We present very-high-energy gamma-ray observations of the BL Lac object 1ES 2344+514 taken by the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System between 2007 and 2015. 1ES 2344+514 is detected with a statistical significance above the background of 20.8 sigma in 47.2 h (livetime) of observations, making this the most comprehensive very-high-energy study of 1ES 2344+514 to date. Using these observations, the temporal properties of 1ES 2344+514 are studied on short and long times-scales. We fit a constant-flux model to nightly and seasonally binned light curves and apply a fractional variability test to determine the stability of the source on different time-scales. We reject the constant-flux model for the 2007-2008 and 2014-2015 nightly binned light curves and for the long-term seasonally binned light curve at the > 3 sigma level. The spectra of the time-averaged emission before and after correction for attenuation by the extragalactic background light are obtained. The observed time-averaged spectrum above 200 GeV is satisfactorily fitted (x(2)/NDF = 7.89/6) by a power-law function with an index Gamma = 2.46 +/- 0.06(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and extends to at least 8 TeV. The extragalactic-backgroundlight-deabsorbed spectrum is adequately fit (x(2)/NDF = 6.73/6) by a power-law function with an index Gamma = 2.15 +/- 0.06(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) while an F-test indicates that the power law with an exponential cut-off function provides a marginally better fit (x(2)/NDF = 2.56/5) at the 2.1 sigma level. The source location is found to be consistent with the published radio location and its spatial extent is consistent with a point source.
Cosmic-ray electrons and positrons (CREs) at GeV-TeV energies are a unique probe of our local Galactic neighborhood. CREs lose energy rapidly via synchrotron radiation and inverse-Compton scattering processes while propagating within the Galaxy, and these losses limit their propagation distance. For electrons with TeV energies, the limit is on the order of a kiloparsec. Within that distance, there are only a few known astrophysical objects capable of accelerating electrons to such high energies. It is also possible that the CREs are the products of the annihilation or decay of heavy dark matter (DM) particles. VERITAS, an array of imaging air Cherenkov telescopes in southern Arizona, is primarily utilized for gamma-ray astronomy but also simultaneously collects CREs during all observations. We describe our methods of identifying CREs in VERITAS data and present an energy spectrum, extending from 300 GeV to 5 TeV, obtained from approximately 300 hours of observations. A single power-law fit is ruled out in VERITAS data. We find that the spectrum of CREs is consistent with a broken power law, with a break energy at 710 +/- 40(stat) +/- 140(syst) GeV.
New global maps of the five inner midsize icy saturnian satellites, Mimas, Enceladus, Tethys, Dione, and Rhea, have been constructed in three colors (UV, Green and near-IR) at resolutions of 1 km/pixel. The maps reveal prominent global patterns common to several of these satellites but also three major color features unique to specific satellites or satellite subgroups. The most common features among the group are first-order global asymmetries in color properties. This pattern, expressed on Tethys, Dione and Rhea, takes the form of a similar to 1.4-1.8 times enhancement in redness (expressed as IR/UV ratio) of the surface at the center of the trailing hemisphere of motion, and a similar though significantly weaker IR/UV enhancement at the center of the leading hemisphere. The peak in redness on the trailing hemisphere also corresponds to a known decrease in albedo. These double hemispheric asymmetries are attributable to plasma and E-ring grain bombardment on the trailing and leading hemispheres, respectively, for the outer three satellites Tethys, Dione and Rhea, whereas as E-ring bombardment may be focused on the trailing hemisphere of Mimas due to its orbital location interior to Enceladus. The maps also reveal three major deviations from these basic global patterns. We observe the previously known dark bluish leading hemisphere equatorial band on Tethys but have also discovered a similar band on Mimas. Similar in shape, both features match the surface patterns expected for irradiation of the surface by incident MeV electrons that drift in a direction opposite to the plasma flow. The global asymmetry on Enceladus is offset similar to 40 degrees to the west compared to the other satellites. We do not consider Enceladus in detail here, but the global distribution of bluish material can be shown to match the deposition pattern predicted for plume fallback onto the surface (Kempf, S., Beckmann, U., Schmidt, S. [2010]. Icarus 206, 446-457. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2009.09.016). E-ring deposition on Enceladus thus appears to mask or prevent the formation of the lenses and hemispheric asymmetries we see on the other satellites. Finally, we observe a chain of discrete bluish splotches along the equator of Rhea. Unlike the equatorial bands of Tethys and Mimas, these splotches form a very narrow great circle <= 10-km wide (north-to-south) and appear to be related to surface disruption, exposing fresh, bluish ice on older crater rims. This feature is unique to Rhea and may have formed by impact onto its surface of orbiting material.
Background:
COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking.
Objective:
The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points.
Methods:
We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions.
Results:
Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction.
Conclusions:
We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.