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HESS J1943+213
(2018)
HESS J1943+213 is a very high energy (VHE; > 100 GeV) gamma-ray source in the direction of the Galactic plane. Studies exploring the classification of the source are converging toward its identification as an extreme synchrotron BL Lac object. Here we present 38 hr of VERITAS observations of HESS J1943+213 taken over 2 yr. The source is detected with a significance of similar to 20 standard deviations, showing a remarkably stable flux and spectrum in VHE gamma-rays. Multifrequency Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) observations of the source confirm the extended, jet-like structure previously found in the 1.6 GHz band with the European VLBI Network and detect this component in the 4.6 and 7.3 GHz bands. The radio spectral indices of the core and the jet and the level of polarization derived from the VLBA observations are in a range typical for blazars. Data from VERITAS, Fermi-LAT, Swift-XRT, the FLWO 48 ' telescope, and archival infrared and hard X-ray observations are used to construct and model the spectral energy distribution (SED) of the source with a synchrotron self-Compton model. The well-measured gamma-ray peak of the SED with VERITAS and Fermi-LAT provides constraining upper limits on the source redshift. Possible contribution of secondary gamma-rays from ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray-initiated electromagnetic cascades to the gamma-ray emission is explored, finding that only a segment of the VHE spectrum can be accommodated with this process. A variability search is performed across X-ray and gamma-ray bands. No statistically significant flux or spectral variability is detected.
A Search for Pulsed Very High-energy Gamma-Rays from 13 Young Pulsars in Archival VERITAS Data
(2019)
We conduct a search for periodic emission in the very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray band (E > 100 GeV) from a total of 13 pulsars in an archival VERITAS data set with a total exposure of over 450 hr. The set of pulsars includes many of the brightest young gamma-ray pulsars visible in the Northern Hemisphere. The data analysis resulted in nondetections of pulsed VHE gamma-rays from each pulsar. Upper limits on a potential VHE gamma-ray flux are derived at the 95% confidence level above three energy thresholds using two methods. These are the first such searches for pulsed VHE emission from each of the pulsars, and the obtained limits constrain a possible flux component manifesting at VHEs as is seen for the Crab pulsar.
On 2017 September 22, the IceCube Neutrino Observatory reported the detection of the high-energy neutrino event IC 170922A, of potential astrophysical origin. It was soon determined that the neutrino direction was consistent with the location of the gamma-ray blazar TXS 0506+056. (3FGL J0509.4+ 0541), which was in an elevated gamma-ray emission state as measured by the Fermi satellite. Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS) observations of the neutrino/blazar region started on 2017 September 23 in response to the neutrino alert and continued through 2018 February 6. While no significant very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) emission was observed from the blazar by VERITAS in the two-week period immediately following the IceCube alert, TXS 0506+ 056 was detected by VERITAS with a significance of 5.8 standard deviations (sigma) in the full 35 hr data set. The average photon flux of the source during this period was (8.9 +/- 1.6). x. 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1), or 1.6% of the Crab Nebula flux, above an energy threshold of 110 GeV, with a soft spectral index of 4.8. +/-. 1.3.
We present results from deep observations toward the Cygnus region using 300 hr of very high energy (VHE)gamma-ray data taken with the VERITAS Cerenkov telescope array and over 7 yr of high-energy.-ray data taken with the Fermi satellite at an energy above 1 GeV. As the brightest region of diffuse gamma-ray emission in the northern sky, the Cygnus region provides a promising area to probe the origins of cosmic rays. We report the identification of a potential Fermi-LAT counterpart to VER J2031+415 (TeV J2032+4130) and resolve the extended VHE source VER J2019+368 into two source candidates (VER J2018+367* and VER J2020+368*) and characterize their energy spectra. The Fermi-LAT morphology of 3FGL J2021.0+4031e (the Gamma Cygni supernova remnant) was examined, and a region of enhanced emission coincident with VER J2019+407 was identified and jointly fit with the VERITAS data. By modeling 3FGL J2015.6+3709 as two sources, one located at the location of the pulsar wind nebula CTB 87 and one at the quasar QSO J2015+371, a continuous spectrum from 1 GeV to 10 TeV was extracted for VER J2016+371 (CTB 87). An additional 71 locations coincident with Fermi-LAT sources and other potential objects of interest were tested for VHE gamma-ray emission, with no emission detected and upper limits on the differential flux placed at an average of 2.3% of the Crab Nebula flux. We interpret these observations in a multiwavelength context and present the most detailed gamma-ray view of the region to date.
Combined with measurements made by very-long-baseline interferometry, the observations of fast TeV gamma-ray flares probe the structure and emission mechanism of blazar jets. However, only a handful of such flares have been detected to date, and only within the last few years have these flares been observed from lower-frequency-peaked BL. Lac objects and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We report on a fast TeV gamma-ray flare from the blazar BL. Lacertae observed by the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS). with a rise time of similar to 2.3 hr and a decay time of similar to 36 min. The peak flux above 200 GeV is (4.2 +/- 0.6) x 10(-6) photon m(-2) s(-1) measured with a 4-minute-binned light curve, corresponding to similar to 180% of the flux that is observed from the Crab Nebula above the same energy threshold. Variability contemporaneous with the TeV gamma-ray flare was observed in GeV gamma-ray, X-ray, and optical flux, as well as in optical and radio polarization. Additionally, a possible moving emission feature with superluminal apparent velocity was identified in Very Long Baseline Array observations at 43 GHz, potentially passing the radio core of the jet around the time of the gamma-ray flare. We discuss the constraints on the size, Lorentz factor, and location of the emitting region of the flare, and the interpretations with several theoretical models that invoke relativistic plasma passing stationary shocks.
On 2015 March 23, the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS) responded to a Swift-Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) detection of a gamma-ray burst, with observations beginning 270 s after the onset of BAT emission, and only 135 s after the main BAT emission peak. No statistically significant signal is detected above 140 GeV. The VERITAS upper limit on the fluence in a 40-minute integration corresponds to about 1% of the prompt fluence. Our limit is particularly significant because the very-high-energy (VHE) observation started only similar to 2 minutes after the prompt emission peaked, and Fermi-Large Area Telescope observations of numerous other bursts have revealed that the high-energy emission is typically delayed relative to the prompt radiation and lasts significantly longer. Also, the proximity of GRB 150323A (z = 0.593) limits the attenuation by the extragalactic background light to similar to 50% at 100-200 GeV. We conclude that GRB 150323A had an intrinsically very weak high-energy afterglow, or that the GeV spectrum had a turnover below similar to 100 GeV. If the GRB exploded into the stellar wind of a massive progenitor, the VHE non-detection constrains the wind density parameter to be A greater than or similar to 3 x 10(11) g . cm(-1), consistent with a standard Wolf-Rayet progenitor. Alternatively, the VHE emission from the blast wave would be weak in a very tenuous medium such as the interstellar medium, which therefore cannot be ruled out as the environment of GRB 150323A.
Imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs) are equipped with sensitive photomultiplier tube (PMT) cameras. Exposure to high levels of background illumination degrades the efficiency of and potentially destroys these photo-detectors over time, so IACTs cannot be operated in the same configuration in the presence of bright moonlight as under dark skies. Since September 2012, observations have been carried out with the VERITAS IACTs under bright moonlight (defined as about three times the night-sky-background (NSB) of a dark extragalactic field, typically occurring when Moon illumination > 35%) in two observing modes, firstly by reducing the voltage applied to the PMTs and, secondly, with the addition of ultra-violet (UV) bandpass filters to the cameras. This has allowed observations at up to about 30 times previous NSB levels (around 80% Moon illumination), resulting in 30% more observing time between the two modes over the course of a year. These additional observations have already allowed for the detection of a flare from the 1ES 1727 + 502 and for an observing program targeting a measurement of the cosmic-ray positron fraction. We provide details of these new observing modes and their performance relative to the standard VERITAS observations. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
We present a search for magnetically broadened gamma-ray emission around active galactic nuclei (AGNs), using VERITAS observations of seven hard-spectrum blazars. A cascade process occurs when multi-TeV gamma-rays from an AGN interact with extragalactic background light (EBL) photons to produce electron-positron pairs, which then interact with cosmic microwave background photons via inverse-Compton scattering to produce gamma-rays. Due to the deflection of the electron- positron pairs, a non-zero intergalactic magnetic field (IGMF) would potentially produce detectable effects on the angular distribution of the cascade emission. In particular, an angular broadening compared to the unscattered emission could occur. Through non-detection of angularly broadened emission from 1ES 1218 vertical bar 304, the source with the largest predicted cascade fraction, we exclude a range of IGMF strengths around 10(-14) G at the 95% confidence level. The extent of the exclusion range varies with the assumptions made about the intrinsic spectrum of 1ES. 1218+304 and the EBL model used in the simulation of the cascade process. All of the sources are used to set limits on the flux due to extended emission.
New global maps of the five inner midsize icy saturnian satellites, Mimas, Enceladus, Tethys, Dione, and Rhea, have been constructed in three colors (UV, Green and near-IR) at resolutions of 1 km/pixel. The maps reveal prominent global patterns common to several of these satellites but also three major color features unique to specific satellites or satellite subgroups. The most common features among the group are first-order global asymmetries in color properties. This pattern, expressed on Tethys, Dione and Rhea, takes the form of a similar to 1.4-1.8 times enhancement in redness (expressed as IR/UV ratio) of the surface at the center of the trailing hemisphere of motion, and a similar though significantly weaker IR/UV enhancement at the center of the leading hemisphere. The peak in redness on the trailing hemisphere also corresponds to a known decrease in albedo. These double hemispheric asymmetries are attributable to plasma and E-ring grain bombardment on the trailing and leading hemispheres, respectively, for the outer three satellites Tethys, Dione and Rhea, whereas as E-ring bombardment may be focused on the trailing hemisphere of Mimas due to its orbital location interior to Enceladus. The maps also reveal three major deviations from these basic global patterns. We observe the previously known dark bluish leading hemisphere equatorial band on Tethys but have also discovered a similar band on Mimas. Similar in shape, both features match the surface patterns expected for irradiation of the surface by incident MeV electrons that drift in a direction opposite to the plasma flow. The global asymmetry on Enceladus is offset similar to 40 degrees to the west compared to the other satellites. We do not consider Enceladus in detail here, but the global distribution of bluish material can be shown to match the deposition pattern predicted for plume fallback onto the surface (Kempf, S., Beckmann, U., Schmidt, S. [2010]. Icarus 206, 446-457. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2009.09.016). E-ring deposition on Enceladus thus appears to mask or prevent the formation of the lenses and hemispheric asymmetries we see on the other satellites. Finally, we observe a chain of discrete bluish splotches along the equator of Rhea. Unlike the equatorial bands of Tethys and Mimas, these splotches form a very narrow great circle <= 10-km wide (north-to-south) and appear to be related to surface disruption, exposing fresh, bluish ice on older crater rims. This feature is unique to Rhea and may have formed by impact onto its surface of orbiting material.
In July 2004 the Cassini–Huygens mission reached the Saturnian system and started its orbital tour. A total of 75 orbits will be carried out during the primary mission until August 2008. In these four years Cassini crosses the ring plane 150 times and spends approx. 400 h within Titan's orbit. The Cosmic Dust Analyser (CDA) onboard Cassini characterises the dust environment with its extended E ring and embedded moons. Here, we focus on the CDA results of the first year and we present the Dust Analyser (DA) data within Titan's orbit. This paper does investigate High Rate Detector data and dust composition measurements. The authors focus on the analysis of impact rates, which were strongly variable primarily due to changes of the spacecraft pointing. An overview is given about the ring plane crossings and the DA counter measurements. The DA dust impact rates are compared with the DA boresight configuration around all ring plane crossings between June 2004 and July 2005. Dust impacts were registered at altitudes as high as 100 000 km above the ring plane at distances from Saturn between 4 and 10 Saturn radii. In those regions the dust density of particles bigger than 0.5 can reach values of 0.001m-3.
Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.
The Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet.
Background:
COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking.
Objective:
The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points.
Methods:
We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions.
Results:
Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction.
Conclusions:
We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.