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One of the key challenges in the context of local site effect studies is the determination of frequencies where the shakeability of the ground is enhanced. In this context, the H/V technique has become increasingly popular and peak frequencies of H/V spectral ratio are sometimes interpreted as resonance frequencies of the transmission response. In the present study, assuming that Rayleigh surface wave is dominant in H/V spectral ratio, we analyse theoretically under which conditions this may be justified and when not. We focus on 'layer over half-space' models which, although seemingly simple, capture many aspects of local site effects in real sedimentary structures. Our starting point is the ellipticity of Rayleigh waves. We use the exact formula of the H/V-ratio presented by Malischewsky & Scherbaum (2004) to investigate the main characteristics of peak and trough frequencies. We present a simple formula illustrating if and where H/V-ratio curves have sharp peaks in dependence of model parameters. In addition, we have constructed a map, which demonstrates the relation between the H/V-peak frequency and the peak frequency of the transmission response in the domain of the layer's Poisson ratio and the impedance contrast. Finally, we have derived maps showing the relationship between the H/V-peak and trough frequency and key parameters of the model such as impedance contrast. These maps are seen as diagnostic tools, which can help to guide the interpretation of H/V spectral ratio diagrams in the context of site effect studies.
Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process-based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species' dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species.
P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.
Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest - the species - with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions. The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species-rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity, and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs.
Mate choice is mediated by a range of sensory cues, and assortative mating based on these cues can drive reproductive isolation among diverging populations. A specific feature of mormyrid fish, the electric organ discharge (EOD), is used for electrolocation and intraspecific communication. We hypothesized that the EOD also facilitates assortative mating and ultimately promotes prezygotic reproductive isolation in African weakly electric fishes. Our behavioural experiments using live males as well as EOD playback demonstrated that female mate recognition is influenced by EOD signals and that females are attracted to EOD characteristics of conspecific males. The dual function of the EOD for both foraging and social communication (including mate recognition leading to assortative mating) underlines the importance of electric signal differentiation for the divergence of African weakly electric fishes. Thus, the EOD provides an intriguing mechanism promoting trophic divergence and reproductive isolation between two closely related Campylomormyrus species occurring in sympatry in the lower Congo rapids.
By traversing the plume erupting from high southern latitudes on Saturn's moon Enceladus, Cassini orbiter instruments can directly sample the material therein. Cassini Plasma Spectrometer, CAPS, data show that a major plume component comprises previously-undetected particles of nanometer scales and larger that bridge the mass gap between previously observed gaseous species and solid icy grains. This population is electrically charged both negative and positive, indicating that subsurface triboelectric charging, i.e., contact electrification of condensed plume material may occur through mutual collisions within vents. The electric field of Saturn's magnetosphere controls the jets' morphologies, separating particles according to mass and charge. Fine-scale structuring of these particles' spatial distribution correlates with discrete plume jets' sources, and reveals locations of other possible active regions. The observed plume population likely forms a major component of high velocity nanometer particle streams detected outside Saturn's magnetosphere.
For two sympatric species of African weakly electric fish, Campylomormyrus tamandua and Campylomormyrus numenius, we monitored ontogenetic differentiation in electric organ discharge (EOD) and established a molecular phylogeny, based on 2222 bp from cytochrome b, the S7 ribosomal protein gene, and four flanking regions of unlinked microsatellite loci. In C tamandua, there is one common EOD type, regardless of age and sex, whereas in C numenius we were able to identify three different male adult EOD waveform types, which emerged from a single common EOD observed in juveniles. Two of these EOD types formed well supported clades in our phylogenetic analysis. In an independent line of evidence, we were able to affirm the classification into three groups by microsatellite data. The correct assignment and the high pairwise FST values support our hypothesis that these groups are reproductively isolated. We propose that in C numenius there are cryptic species, hidden behind similar and, at least as juveniles, identical morphs.
In July 2004 the Cassini–Huygens mission reached the Saturnian system and started its orbital tour. A total of 75 orbits will be carried out during the primary mission until August 2008. In these four years Cassini crosses the ring plane 150 times and spends approx. 400 h within Titan's orbit. The Cosmic Dust Analyser (CDA) onboard Cassini characterises the dust environment with its extended E ring and embedded moons. Here, we focus on the CDA results of the first year and we present the Dust Analyser (DA) data within Titan's orbit. This paper does investigate High Rate Detector data and dust composition measurements. The authors focus on the analysis of impact rates, which were strongly variable primarily due to changes of the spacecraft pointing. An overview is given about the ring plane crossings and the DA counter measurements. The DA dust impact rates are compared with the DA boresight configuration around all ring plane crossings between June 2004 and July 2005. Dust impacts were registered at altitudes as high as 100 000 km above the ring plane at distances from Saturn between 4 and 10 Saturn radii. In those regions the dust density of particles bigger than 0.5 can reach values of 0.001m-3.
The PEGASOS project was a major international seismic hazard study, one of the largest ever conducted anywhere in the world, to assess seismic hazard at four nuclear power plant sites in Switzerland. Before the report of this project has become publicly available, a paper attacking both methodology and results has appeared. Since the general scientific readership may have difficulty in assessing this attack in the absence of the report being attacked, we supply a response in the present paper. The bulk of the attack, besides some misconceived arguments about the role of uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis, is carried by some exercises that purport to be validation exercises. In practice, they are no such thing; they are merely independent sets of hazard calculations based on varying assumptions and procedures, often rather questionable, which come up with various different answers which have no particular significance. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
An important task of seismic hazard assessment consists of estimating the rate of seismic moment release which is correlated to the rate of tectonic deformation and the seismic coupling. However, the estimations of deformation depend on the type of information utilized (e.g. geodetic, geological, seismic) and include large uncertainties. We therefore estimate the deformation rate in the Lower Rhine Embayment (LRE), Germany, using an integrated approach where the uncertainties have been systematically incorporated. On the basis of a new homogeneous earthquake catalogue we initially determine the frequency-magnitude distribution by statistical methods. In particular, we focus on an adequate estimation of the upper bound of the Gutenberg-Richter relation and demonstrate the importance of additional palaeoseis- mological information. The integration of seismological and geological information yields a probability distribution of the upper bound magnitude. Using this distribution together with the distribution of Gutenberg-Richter a and b values, we perform Monte Carlo simulations to derive the seismic moment release as a function of the observation time. The seismic moment release estimated from synthetic earthquake catalogues with short catalogue length is found to systematically underestimate the long-term moment rate which can be analytically determined. The moment release recorded in the LRE over the last 250 yr is found to be in good agreement with the probability distribution resulting from the Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, the long-term distribution is within its uncertainties consistent with the moment rate derived by geological measurements, indicating an almost complete seismic coupling in this region. By means of Kostrov's formula, we additionally calculate the full deformation rate tensor using the distribution of known focal mechanisms in LRE. Finally, we use the same approach to calculate the seismic moment and the deformation rate for two subsets of the catalogue corresponding to the east- and west-dipping faults, respectively