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One paragraph of the manuscript of the paper has been inadvertently omitted in the very final stage of its compilation due to a technical mistake. Since this paragraph discusses the declustering of the used earthquake catalogue and is therefore necessary for the understanding of the seismicity data preprocessing, the authors decided to provide this paragraph in form of a correction. The respective paragraph belongs to chapter 2 of the paper, where it was placed originally, and should be inserted into the published paper before the second to the last paragraph. The omitted text reads as follows:
The Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics based on the Global Strain Rate Map (SHIFT_GSRM) earthquake forecast was designed to provide high-resolution estimates of global shallow seismicity to be used in seismic hazard assessment. This model combines geodetic strain rates with global earthquake parameters to characterize long-term rates of seismic moment and earthquake activity. Although SHIFT_GSRM properly computes seismicity rates in seismically active continental regions, it underestimates earthquake rates in subduction zones by an average factor of approximately 3. We present a complementary method to SHIFT_GSRM to more accurately forecast earthquake rates in 37 subduction segments, based on the conservation of moment principle and the use of regional interface seismicity parameters, such as subduction dip angles, corner magnitudes, and coupled seismogenic thicknesses. In seven progressive steps, we find that SHIFT_GSRM earthquake-rate underpredictions are mainly due to the utilization of a global probability function of seismic moment release that poorly captures the great variability among subduction megathrust interfaces. Retrospective test results show that the forecast is consistent with the observations during the 1 January 1977 to 31 December 2014 period. Moreover, successful pseudoprospective evaluations for the 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018 period demonstrate the power of the regionalized earthquake model to properly estimate subduction-zone seismicity.
A proper assessment of seismic reference site conditions has important applications as they represent the basis on which ground motions and amplifications are generally computed. Besides accounting for the average S-wave velocity over the uppermost 30 m (V-S30), the parameterization of high-frequency ground motions beyond source-corner frequency received significant attention. kappa, an empirical parameter introduced by Anderson and Hough (1984), is often used to represent the spectral decay of the acceleration spectrum at high frequencies. The lack of hard-rock records and the poor understanding of the physics of kappa introduced significant epistemic uncertainty in the final seismic hazard of recent projects. Thus, determining precise and accurate regional hard-rock kappa(0) values is critical. We propose an alternative procedure for capturing the reference kappa(0) on regional scales by linking thewell-known high-frequency attenuation parameter kappa and the properties of multiple-scattered coda waves. Using geological and geophysical data around more than 1300 stations for separating reference and soft soil sites and based on more than 10,000 crustal earthquake recordings, we observe that kappa(0) from multiple-scattered coda waves seems to be independent of the soil type but correlated with the hard-rock kappa(0), showing significant regional variations across Europe. The values range between 0.004 s for northern Europe and 0.020 s for the southern and southeastern parts. On the other hand, measuring kappa (and correspondingly kappa(0)) on the S-wave window (as classically proposed), the results are strongly affected by transmitted (reflected, refracted, and scattered) waves included in the analyzed window biasing the proper assessment of kappa(0). This effect is more pronounced for soft soil sites. In this way, kappa(coda)(0) can serve as a proxy for the regional hard-rock kappa(0) at the reference sites.
Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) are essential in probabilistic seismic hazard studies for estimating the ground motions generated by the seismic sources. In low-seismicity regions, only weak motions are available during the lifetime of accelerometric networks, and the equations selected for the probabilistic studies are usually models established from foreign data. Although most GMPEs have been developed for magnitudes 5 and above, the minimum magnitude often used in probabilistic studies in low-seismicity regions is smaller. Disaggregations have shown that, at return periods of engineering interest, magnitudes less than 5 may be contributing to the hazard. This paper presents the testing of several GMPEs selected in current international and national probabilistic projects against weak motions recorded in France (191 recordings with source-site distances up to 300 km, 3:8 <= M-w <= 4:5). The method is based on the log-likelihood value proposed by Scherbaum et al. (2009). The best-fitting models (approximately 2:5 <= LLH <= 3:5) over the whole frequency range are the Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008), Akkar and Bommer (2010), and Abrahamson and Silva (2008) models. No significant regional variation of ground motions is highlighted, and the magnitude scaling could be the predominant factor in the control of ground-motion amplitudes. Furthermore, we take advantage of a rich Japanese dataset to run tests on randomly selected low-magnitude subsets, and confirm that a dataset of similar to 190 observations, the same size as the French dataset, is large enough to obtain stable LLH estimates. Additionally we perform the tests against larger magnitudes (5-7) from the Japanese dataset. The ranking of models is partially modified, indicating a magnitude scaling effect for some of the models, and showing that extrapolating testing results obtained from low-magnitude ranges to higher magnitude ranges is not straightforward.
This study aims to identify the best-performing site characterization proxy alternative and complementary to the conventional 30 m average shear-wave velocity V-S30, as well as the optimal combination of proxies in characterizing linear site response. Investigated proxies include T-0 (site fundamental period obtained from earthquake horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios), V-Sz (measured average shear-wave velocities to depth z, z = 5, 10, 20 and 30 m), Z(0.8) and Z(1.0) (measured site depths to layers having shear-wave velocity 0.8 and 1.0 km/s, respectively), as well as Z(x-infer) (inferred site depths from a regional velocity model, x = 0.8 and 1.0, 1.5 and 2.5 km/s). To evaluate the performance of a site proxy or a combination, a total of 1840 surface-borehole recordings is selected from KiK-net database. Site amplifications are derived using surface-to-borehole response-, Fourier- and cross-spectral ratio techniques and then are compared across approaches. Next, the efficacies of 7 single-proxies and 11 proxy-pairs are quantified based on the site-to-site standard deviation of amplification residuals of observation about prediction using the proxy or the pair. Our results show that T-0 is the best-performing single-proxy among T-0, Z(0.8), Z(1.0) and V-Sz. Meanwhile, T-0 is also the best-performing proxy among T-0, Z(0.8), Z(1.0) and Z(x-infer) complementary to V-S30 in accounting for the residual amplification after V-S30-correction. Besides, T-0 alone can capture most of the site effects and should be utilized as the primary site indicator. Though (T-0, V-S30) is the best-performing proxy pair among (V-S30, T-0), (V-S30, Z(0.8)), (V-S30, Z(1.0)), (V-S30, Z(x-infer)) and (T-0, V-Sz), it is only slightly better than (T-0, V-S20). Considering both efficacy and engineering utility, the combination of T-0 (primary) and V-S20 (secondary) is recommended. Further study is needed to test the performances of various proxies on sites in deep sedimentary basins.
Evaluation of a novel application of earthquake HVSR in site-specific amplification estimation
(2020)
Ground response analyses (GRA) model the vertical propagations of SH waves through flat-layered media (1DSH) and are widely carried out to evaluate local site effects in practice. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique is a cost-effective approach to extract certain site-specific information, e.g., site fundamental frequency (f(0)), but HVSR values cannot be directly used to approximate the levels of S-wave amplifications. Motivated by the work of Kawase et al. (2019), we propose a procedure to correct earthquake HVSR amplitudes for direct amplification estimations. The empirical correction compensates HVSR by generic vertical amplification spectra categorized by the vertical fundamental frequency (f(0v)) via kappa-means clustering. In this investigation, we evaluate the effectiveness of the corrected HVSR in approximating observed linear amplifications in comparison with 1DSH modellings. We select a total of 90 KiK-net (Kiban Kyoshin network) surface-downhole sites which are found to have no velocity contrasts below their boreholes and thus of which surface-to-borehole spectral ratios (SBSRs) can be taken as their empirical transfer functions (ETFs). 1DSH-based theoretical transfer functions (TTFs) are computed in the linear domain considering uncertainties in Vs profiles through randomizations. Five goodness-of-fit metrics are adopted to gauge the closeness between observed (ETF) and predicted (i.e., TTF and corrected HVSR) amplifications in both amplitude and spectral shape over frequencies from f(0) to 25 Hz. We find that the empirical correction to HVSR is highly effective and achieves a "good match" in both spectral shape and amplitude at the majority of the 90 KiK-net sites, as opposed to less than one-third for the 1DSH modelling. In addition, the empirical correction does not require a velocity model, which GRAs require, and thus has great potentials in seismic hazard assessments.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the ability of various site-condition proxies (SCPs) to reduce ground-motion aleatory variability and evaluate how SCPs capture nonlinearity site effects. The SCPs used here are time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m (V-S30), the topographical slope (slope), the fundamental resonance frequency (f(0)) and the depth beyond which V-s exceeds 800 m/s (H800). We considered first the performance of each SCP taken alone and then the combined performance of the 6 SCP pairs [V-S30-f(0)], [V-S30-H-800], [f(0)-slope], [H-800-slope], [V-S30-slope] and [f(0)-H-800]. This analysis is performed using a neural network approach including a random effect applied on a KiK-net subset for derivation of ground-motion prediction equations setting the relationship between various ground-motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and pseudo-spectral acceleration PSA (T), and Mw, RJB, focal depth and SCPs. While the choice of SCP is found to have almost no impact on the median groundmotion prediction, it does impact the level of aleatory uncertainty. VS30 is found to perform the best of single proxies at short periods (T < 0.6 s), while f(0) and H-800 perform better at longer periods; considering SCP pairs leads to significant improvements, with particular emphasis on [V-S30-H-800] and [f(0)-slope] pairs. The results also indicate significant nonlinearity on the site terms for soft sites and that the most relevant loading parameter for characterising nonlinear site response is the "stiff" spectral ordinate at the considered period.
The creation of building exposure models for seismic risk assessment is frequently challenging due to the lack of availability of detailed information on building structures. Different strategies have been developed in recent years to overcome this, including the use of census data, remote sensing imagery and volunteered graphic information (VGI). This paper presents the development of a building-by-building exposure model based exclusively on openly available datasets, including both VGI and census statistics, which are defined at different levels of spatial resolution and for different moments in time. The initial model stemming purely from building-level data is enriched with statistics aggregated at the neighbourhood and city level by means of a Monte Carlo simulation that enables the generation of full realisations of damage estimates when using the exposure model in the context of an earthquake scenario calculation. Though applicable to any other region of interest where analogous datasets are available, the workflow and approach followed are explained by focusing on the case of the German city of Cologne, for which a scenario earthquake is defined and the potential damage is calculated. The resulting exposure model and damage estimates are presented, and it is shown that the latter are broadly consistent with damage data from the 1978 Albstadt earthquake, notwithstanding the differences in the scenario. Through this real-world application we demonstrate the potential of VGI and open data to be used for exposure modelling for natural risk assessment, when combined with suitable knowledge on building fragility and accounting for the inherent uncertainties.
On April 29, 2017 at 0:56 UTC (2:56 local time), an M (W) = 2.8 earthquake struck the metropolitan area between Leipzig and Halle, Germany, near the small town of Markranstadt. The earthquake was felt within 50 km from the epicenter and reached a local intensity of I (0) = IV. Already in 2015 and only 15 km northwest of the epicenter, a M (W) = 3.2 earthquake struck the area with a similar large felt radius and I (0) = IV. More than 1.1 million people live in the region, and the unusual occurrence of the two earthquakes led to public attention, because the tectonic activity is unclear and induced earthquakes have occurred in neighboring regions. Historical earthquakes south of Leipzig had estimated magnitudes up to M (W) ae 5 and coincide with NW-SE striking crustal basement faults. We use different seismological methods to analyze the two recent earthquakes and discuss them in the context of the known tectonic structures and historical seismicity. Novel stochastic full waveform simulation and inversion approaches are adapted for the application to weak, local earthquakes, to analyze mechanisms and ground motions and their relation to observed intensities. We find NW-SE striking normal faulting mechanisms for both earthquakes and centroid depths of 26 and 29 km. The earthquakes are located where faults with large vertical offsets of several hundred meters and Hercynian strike have developed since the Mesozoic. We use a stochastic full waveform simulation to explain the local peak ground velocities and calibrate the method to simulate intensities. Since the area is densely populated and has sensitive infrastructure, we simulate scenarios assuming that a 12-km long fault segment between the two recent earthquakes is ruptured and study the impact of rupture parameters on ground motions and expected damage.
We study the rupture processes of Iquique earthquake M-w 8.1 (2014/04/01) and its largest aftershock M-w 7.7 (2014/04/03) that ruptured the North Chile subduction zone. High-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) recordings and strong motion data are used to reconstruct the evolution of the slip amplitude, rise time and rupture time of both earthquakes. A two-step inversion scheme is assumed, by first building prior models for both earthquakes from the inversion of the estimated static displacements and then, kinematic inversions in the frequency domain are carried out taken into account this prior information. The preferred model for the mainshock exhibits a seismic moment of 1.73 x 10(21) Nm (M-w 8.1) and maximum slip of similar to 9 m, while the aftershock model has a seismic moment of 3.88 x 10(20) (M-w 7.7) and a maximum slip of similar to 3 m. For both earthquakes, the final slip distributions show two asperities (a shallow one and a deep one) separated by an area with significant slip deficit. This suggests a segmentation along-dip which might be related to a change of the dipping angle of the subducting slab inferred from gravimetric data. Along-strike, the areas where the seismic ruptures stopped seem to be well correlated with geological features observed from geophysical information (high-resolution bathymetry, gravimetry and coupling maps) that are representative of the long-term segmentation of the subduction margin. Considering the spatially limited portions that were broken by these two earthquakes, our results support the idea that the seismic gap is not filled yet. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.