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Today, the Mekong Delta in the southern of Vietnam is home for 18 million people. The delta also accounts for more than half of the country’s food production and 80% of the exported rice. Due to the low elevation, it is highly susceptible to the risk of fluvial and coastal flooding. Although extreme floods often result in excessive damages and economic losses, the annual flood pulse from the Mekong is vital to sustain agricultural cultivation and livelihoods of million delta inhabitants.
Delta-wise risk management and adaptation strategies are required to mitigate the adverse impacts from extreme events while capitalising benefits from floods. However, a proper flood risk management has not been implemented in the VMD, because the quantification of flood damage is often overlooked and the risks are thus not quantified. So far, flood management has been exclusively focused on engineering measures, i.e. high- and low- dyke systems, aiming at flood-free or partial inundation control without any consideration of the actual risks or a cost-benefit analysis. Therefore, an analysis of future delta flood dynamics driven these stressors is valuable to facilitate the transition from sole hazard control towards a risk management approach, which is more cost-effective and also robust against future changes in risk.
Built on these research gaps, this thesis investigates the current state and future projections of flood hazard, damage and risk to rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the VMD. The study quantifies the changes in risk and hazard brought by the development of delta-based flood control measures in the last decades, and analyses the expected changes in risk driven by the changing climate, rising sea-level and deltaic land subsidence, and finally the development of hydropower projects in the Mekong Basin. For this purpose, flood trend analyses and comprehensive hydraulic modelling were performed, together with the development of a concept to quantify flood damage and risk to rice plantation.
The analysis of observed flood levels revealed strong and robust increasing trends of peak and duration downstream of the high-dyke areas with a step change in 2000/2001, i.e. after the disastrous flood which initiated the high-dyke development. These changes were in contrast to the negative trends detected upstream, suggested that high-dyke development has shifted flood hazard downstream. Findings of the trend’s analysis were later confirmed by hydraulic simulations of the two recent extreme floods in 2000 and 2011, where the hydrological boundaries and dyke system settings were interchanged.
However, the high-dyke system was not the only and often not the main cause for a shift of flood hazard, as a comparative analysis of these two extreme floods proved. The high-dyke development was responsible for 20–90% of the observed changes in flood level between 2000 and 2011, with large spatial variances. The particular flood hydrograph of the two events had the highest contribution in the northern part of the delta, while the tidal level had 2–3 times higher influence than the high-dyke in the lower-central and coastal areas downstream of high-dyke areas. The impact of the high-dyke development was highest in the areas closely downstream of the high-dyke area just south of the Cambodia-Vietnam border. The hydraulic simulations also validated that the concurrence of the flood peak with spring tides, i.e. high sea level along the coast, amplified the flood level and inundation in the central and coastal regions substantially.
The risk assessment quantified the economic losses of rice cultivation to USD 25.0 and 115 million (0.02–0.1% of the total GDP of Vietnam in 2011) corresponding to the 10-year and the 100-year floods, with an expected annual damage of about USD 4.5 million. A particular finding is that the flood damage was highly sensitive to flood timing. Here, a 10-year event with an early peak, i.e. late August-September, could cause as much damage as a 100-year event that peaked in October. This finding underlines the importance of a reliable early flood warning, which could substantially reduce the damage to rice crops and thus the risk.
The developed risk assessment concept was furthermore applied to investigate two high-dyke development alternatives, which are currently under discussion among the administrative bodies in Vietnam, but also in the public. The first option favouring the utilization of the current high-dyke compartments as flood retention areas instead for rice cropping during the flood season could reduce flood hazard and expected losses by 5–40%, depending on the region of the delta. On the contrary, the second option promoting the further extension of the areas protected by high-dyke to facilitate third rice crop planting on a larger area, tripled the current expected annual flood damage. This finding challenges the expected economic benefit of triple rice cultivation, in addition to the already known reducing of nutrient supply by floodplain sedimentation and thus higher costs for fertilizers.
The economic benefits of the high-dyke and triple rice cropping system is further challenged by the changes in the flood dynamics to be expected in future. For the middle of the 21st century (2036-2065) the effective sea-level rise an increase of the inundation extent by 20–27% was projected. This corresponds to an increase of flood damage to rice crops in dry, normal and wet year by USD 26.0, 40.0 and 82.0 million in dry, normal and wet year compared to the baseline period 1971-2000.
Hydraulic simulations indicated that the planned massive development of hydropower dams in the Mekong Basin could potentially compensate the increase in flood hazard and agriculture losses stemming from climate change. However, the benefits of dams as mitigation of flood losses are highly uncertain, because a) the actual development of the dams is highly disputed, b) the operation of the dams is primarily targeted at power generation, not flood control, and c) this would require international agreements and cooperation, which is difficult to achieve in South-East Asia. The theoretical flood mitigation benefit is additionally challenged by a number of negative impacts of the dam development, e.g. disruption of floodplain inundation in normal, non-extreme flood years. Adding to the certain reduction of sediment and nutrient load to the floodplains, hydropower dams will drastically impair rice and agriculture production, the basis livelihoods of million delta inhabitants.
In conclusion, the VMD is expected to face increasing threats of tidal induced floods in the coming decades. Protection of the entire delta coastline solely with “hard” engineering flood protection structures is neither technically nor economically feasible, adaptation and mitigation actions are urgently required. Better control and reduction of groundwater abstraction is thus strongly recommended as an immediate and high priority action to reduce the land subsidence and thus tidal flooding and salinity intrusion in the delta. Hydropower development in the Mekong basin might offer some theoretical flood protection for the Mekong delta, but due to uncertainties in the operation of the dams and a number of negative effects, the dam development cannot be recommended as a strategy for flood management. For the Vietnamese authorities, it is advisable to properly maintain the existing flood protection structures and to develop flexible risk-based flood management plans. In this context the study showed that the high-dyke compartments can be utilized for emergency flood management in extreme events. For this purpose, a reliable flood forecast is essential, and the action plan should be materialised in official documents and legislation to assure commitment and consistency in the implementation and operation.
Context. Globular clusters (GCs) are established emitters of high-energy (HE, 100 MeV < E < 100 GeV) gamma-ray radiation which could originate from the cumulative emission of the numerous millisecond pulsars (msPSRs) in the clusters’ cores or from inverse Compton (IC) scattering of relativistic leptons accelerated in the GC environment. These stellar clusters could also constitute a new class of sources in the very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray regime, judging from the recent detection of a signal from the direction of Terzan 5 with the H.E.S.S. telescope array. Aims. To search for VHE gamma-ray sources associated with other GCs, and to put constraints on leptonic emission models, we systematically analyzed the observations towards 15 GCs taken with the H. E. S. S. array of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Methods. We searched for point-like and extended VHE gamma-ray emission from each GC in our sample and also performed a stacking analysis combining the data from all GCs to investigate the hypothesis of a population of faint emitters. Assuming IC emission as the origin of the VHE gamma-ray signal from the direction of Terzan 5, we calculated the expected gamma-ray flux from each of the 15 GCs, based on their number of millisecond pulsars, their optical brightness and the energy density of background photon fields. Results. We did not detect significant VHE gamma-ray emission from any of the 15 GCs in either of the two analyses. Given the uncertainties related to the parameter determinations, the obtained flux upper limits allow to rule out the simple IC/msPSR scaling model for NGC6388 and NGC7078. The upper limits derived from the stacking analyses are factors between 2 and 50 below the flux predicted by the simple leptonic scaling model, depending on the assumed source extent and the dominant target photon fields. Therefore, Terzan 5 still remains exceptional among all GCs, as the VHE gamma-ray emission either arises from extra-ordinarily efficient leptonic processes, or from a recent catastrophic event, or is even unrelated to the GC itself.
Gamma-ray line signatures can be expected in the very-high-energy (E-gamma > 100 GeV) domain due to self-annihilation or decay of dark matter (DM) particles in space. Such a signal would be readily distinguishable from astrophysical gamma-ray sources that in most cases produce continuous spectra that span over several orders of magnitude in energy. Using data collected with the H. E. S. S. gamma-ray instrument, upper limits on linelike emission are obtained in the energy range between similar to 500 GeV and similar to 25 TeV for the central part of the Milky Way halo and for extragalactic observations, complementing recent limits obtained with the Fermi-LAT instrument at lower energies. No statistically significant signal could be found. For monochromatic gamma-ray line emission, flux limits of (2 x 10(-7)-2 x 10(-5)) m(-2)s(-1)sr(-1) and (1 x 10(-8)- 2 x 10(-6)) m(-2)s(-1)sr(-1) are obtained for the central part of the Milky Way halo and extragalactic observations, respectively. For a DM particle mass of 1 TeV, limits on the velocity- averaged DM annihilation cross section <sigma upsilon >(chi chi ->gamma gamma) reach similar to 10(-27)cm(3)s(-1), based on the Einasto parametrization of the Galactic DM halo density profile. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.041301
The quasar PKS 1510-089 (z = 0.361) was observed with the H.E.S.S. array of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes during high states in the optical and GeV bands, to search for very high energy (VHE, defined as E >= 0.1 TeV) emission. VHE gamma-rays were detected with a statistical significance of 9.2 standard deviations in 15.8 h of H. E. S. S. data taken during March and April 2009. A VHE integral flux of I(0.15 TeV < E < 1.0TeV) = (1.0 +/- 0.2(stat) +/- 0.2(sys)) x 10(-11) cm(-2) s(-1) is measured. The best-fit power law to the VHE data has a photon index of G = 5.4 +/- 0.7(stat) +/- 0.3(sys). The GeV and optical light curves show pronounced variability during the period of H.E.S.S. observations. However, there is insufficient evidence to claim statistically significant variability in the VHE data. Because of its relatively high redshift, the VHE flux from PKS 1510-089 should suffer considerable attenuation in the intergalactic space due to the extragalactic background light (EBL). Hence, the measured gamma-ray spectrum is used to derive upper limits on the opacity due to EBL, which are found to be comparable with the previously derived limits from relatively-nearby BL Lac objects. Unlike typical VHE-detected blazars where the broadband spectrum is dominated by nonthermal radiation at all wavelengths, the quasar PKS 1510-089 has a bright thermal component in the optical to UV frequency band. Among all VHE detected blazars, PKS 1510-089 has the most luminous broad line region. The detection of VHE emission from this quasar indicates a low level of gamma - gamma absorption on the internal optical to UV photon field.
HESS observations of the binary system PSR B1259-63/LS 2883 around the 2010/2011 periastron passage
(2013)
Aims. We present very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) data from the gamma-ray binary system PSR B1259-63/LS 2883 taken around its periastron passage on 15th of December 2010 with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H. E. S. S.) of Cherenkov Telescopes. We aim to search for a possible TeV counterpart of the GeV flare detected by the Fermi LAT. In addition, we aim to study the current periastron passage in the context of previous observations taken at similar orbital phases, testing the repetitive behaviour of the source.
Methods. Observations at VHEs were conducted with H.E.S.S. from 9th to 16th of January 2011. The total dataset amounts to similar to 6 h of observing time. The data taken around the 2004 periastron passage were also re-analysed with the current analysis techniques in order to extend the energy spectrum above 3 TeV to fully compare observation results from 2004 and 2011.
Results. The source is detected in the 2011 data at a significance level of 11.5 sigma revealing an averaged integral flux above 1 TeV of (1.01 +/- 0.18(stat) +/- 0.20(sys)) x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1). The differential energy spectrum follows a power-law shape with a spectral index Gamma = 2.92 +/- 0.30(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and a flux normalisation at 1 TeV of N-0 = (1.95 +/- 0.32(stat) +/- 0.39(sys)) x 10(-12) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1). The measured light curve does not show any evidence for variability of the source on the daily scale. The re-analysis of the 2004 data yields results compatible with the published ones. The differential energy spectrum measured up to similar to 10 TeV is consistent with a power law with a spectral index Gamma = 2.81 +/- 0.10(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and a flux normalisation at 1 TeV of N-0 = (1.29 +/- 0.08(stat) +/- 0.26(sys)) x 10(-12) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1).
Conclusions. The measured integral flux and the spectral shape of the 2011 data are compatible with the results obtained around previous periastron passages. The absence of variability in the H.E.S.S. data indicates that the GeV flare observed by Fermi LAT in the time period covered also by H.E.S.S. observations originates in a different physical scenario than the TeV emission. Moreover, the comparison of the new results to the results from the 2004 observations made at a similar orbital phase provides a stronger evidence of the repetitive behaviour of the source.
Very high-energy gamma-ray emission from PKS 0447-439 was detected with the H. E. S. S. Cherenkov telescope array in December 2009. This blazar is one of the brightest extragalactic objects in the Fermi bright source list and has a hard spectrum in the MeV to GeV range. In the TeV range, a photon index of 3.89 +/- 0.37 (stat) +/- 0.22 (sys) and a flux normalisation at 1 TeV, phi(1) (TeV) = (3.5 +/- 1.1(stat) +/- 0.9(sys)) x 10(-13) cm(-2) s(-1) TeV-1 were found. The detection with H. E. S. S. triggered observations in the X-ray band with the Swift and RXTE telescopes. Simultaneous UV and optical data from Swift UVOT and data from the optical telescopes ATOM and ROTSE are also available. The spectrum and light curve measured with H. E. S. S. are presented and compared to the multi-wavelength data at lower energies. A rapid flare is seen in the Swift XRT and RXTE data, together with a flux variation in the UV band, at a time scale of the order of one day. A firm upper limit of z < 0.59 on the redshift of PKS 0447-439 is derived from the combined Fermi-LAT and H. E. S. S. data, given the assumptions that there is no upturn in the intrinsic spectrum above the Fermi-LAT energy range and that absorption on the extragalactic background light (EBL) is not weaker than the lower limit provided by current models. The spectral energy distribution is well described by a simple one-zone synchrotron self-Compton scenario, if the redshift of the source is less than z less than or similar to 0.4.
Large-scale floodplain sediment dynamics in the Mekong Delta : present state and future prospects
(2014)
The Mekong Delta (MD) sustains the livelihood and food security of millions of people in Vietnam and Cambodia. It is known as the “rice bowl” of South East Asia and has one of the world’s most productive fisheries. Sediment dynamics play a major role for the high productivity of agriculture and fishery in the delta. However, the MD is threatened by climate change, sea level rise and unsustainable development activities in the Mekong Basin. But despite its importance and the expected threats, the understanding of the present and future sediment dynamics in the MD is very limited. This is a consequence of its large extent, the intricate system of rivers, channels and floodplains and the scarcity of observations. Thus this thesis aimed at (1) the quantification of suspended sediment dynamics and associated sediment-nutrient deposition in floodplains of the MD, and (2) assessed the impacts of likely future boundary changes on the sediment dynamics in the MD. The applied methodology combines field experiments and numerical simulation to quantify and predict the sediment dynamics in the entire delta in a spatially explicit manner. The experimental part consists of a comprehensive procedure to monitor quantity and spatial variability of sediment and associated nutrient deposition for large and complex river floodplains, including an uncertainty analysis. The measurement campaign applied 450 sediment mat traps in 19 floodplains over the MD for a complete flood season. The data also supports quantification of nutrient deposition in floodplains based on laboratory analysis of nutrient fractions of trapped sedimentation.The main findings are that the distribution of grain size and nutrient fractions of suspended sediment are homogeneous over the Vietnamese floodplains. But the sediment deposition within and between ring dike floodplains shows very high spatial variability due to a high level of human inference. The experimental findings provide the essential data for setting up and calibration of a large-scale sediment transport model for the MD. For the simulation studies a large scale hydrodynamic model was developed in order to quantify large-scale floodplain sediment dynamics. The complex river-channel-floodplain system of the MD is described by a quasi-2D model linking a hydrodynamic and a cohesive sediment transport model. The floodplains are described as quasi-2D presentations linked to rivers and channels modeled in 1D by using control structures. The model setup, based on the experimental findings, ignored erosion and re-suspension processes due to a very high degree of human interference during the flood season. A two-stage calibration with six objective functions was developed in order to calibrate both the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modules. The objective functions include hydraulic and sediment transport parameters in main rivers, channels and floodplains. The model results show, for the first time, the tempo-spatial distribution of sediment and associated nutrient deposition rates in the whole MD. The patterns of sediment transport and deposition are quantified for different sub-systems. The main factors influencing spatial sediment dynamics are the network of rivers, channels and dike-rings, sluice gate operations, magnitude of the floods and tidal influences. The superposition of these factors leads to high spatial variability of the sediment transport and deposition, in particular in the Vietnamese floodplains. Depending on the flood magnitude, annual sediment loads reaching the coast vary from 48% to 60% of the sediment load at Kratie, the upper boundary of the MD. Deposited sediment varies from 19% to 23% of the annual load at Kratie in Cambodian floodplains, and from 1% to 6% in the compartmented and diked floodplains in Vietnam. Annual deposited nutrients (N, P, K), which are associated to the sediment deposition, provide on average more than 50% of mineral fertilizers typically applied for rice crops in non-flooded ring dike compartments in Vietnam. This large-scale quantification provides a basis for estimating the benefits of the annual Mekong floods for agriculture and fishery, for assessing the impacts of future changes on the delta system, and further studies on coastal deposition/erosion. For the estimation of future prospects a sensitivity-based approach is applied to assess the response of floodplain hydraulics and sediment dynamics to the changes in the delta boundaries including hydropower development, climate change in the Mekong River Basin and effective sea level rise. The developed sediment model is used to simulate the mean sediment transport and sediment deposition in the whole delta system for the baseline (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) periods. For each driver we derive a plausible range of future changes and discretize it into five levels, resulting in altogether 216 possible factor combinations. Our results thus cover all plausible future pathways of sediment dynamics in the delta based on current knowledge. The uncertainty of the range of the resulting impacts can be decreased in case more information on these drivers becomes available. Our results indicate that the hydropower development dominates the changes in sediment dynamics of the Mekong Delta, while sea level rise has the smallest effect. The floodplains of Vietnamese Mekong Delta are much more sensitive to the changes compared to the other subsystems of the delta. In terms of median changes of the three combined drivers, the inundation extent is predicted to increase slightly, but the overall floodplain sedimentation would be reduced by approximately 40%, while the sediment load to the Sea would diminish to half of the current rates. These findings provide new and valuable information on the possible impacts of future development on the delta, and indicate the most vulnerable areas. Thus, the presented results are a significant contribution to the ongoing international discussion on the hydropower development in the Mekong basin and its impact on the Mekong delta.