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This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.
The management of biodiversity represents a research topic that needs to involve not only several (sub-) disciplines from the natural sciences but, in particular, also the social sciences and humanities. Furthermore, over the last couple of years, the need for the integration of other kinds of knowledge (experience based or indigenous knowledge) is increasingly acknowledged. For instance, the incorporation of such knowledge is indispensable for place-based approaches to sustainable land management, which require that the specific ecological and social context is addressed. However, desirable as it may be, such an engagement of the holders of tacit knowledge is not easy to achieve. It demands reconciling well-established scientific procedural standards with the implicit or explicit criteria of relevance that apply in civil society a process that typically causes severe tensions and comes up against both habitual as well as institutional constraints. The difficulty of managing such tensions is amplified particularly in large integrated projects and represents a major challenge to project management. At the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, several integrated research projects have been conducted over the past years in which experience has been gained with these specific challenges. This paper presents some of the lessons learned from large integrated projects, with an emphasis on project design and management structure. At the centre of the present contribution are experiences gained in the coordination and management of LEGATO (LEGATO stands for Land-use intensity and Ecological EnGineering - Assessment Tools for risks and Opportunities in irrigated rice based production systems, see www.legato-project.net), an ongoing, large-scale, inter- and transdisciplinary research project dealing with the management of irrigated rice landscapes in Southeast Asia. In this project, local expertise on traditional production systems is absolutely crucial but needs to be integrated with natural and social science research to identify future-proof land management systems.
Background
The members of the genus Muntiacus are of particular interest to evolutionary biologists due to their extreme chromosomal rearrangements and the ongoing discussions about the number of living species. Red muntjacs have the largest distribution of all muntjacs and were formerly considered as one species. Karyotype differences led to the provisional split between the Southern Red Muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak) and the Northern Red Muntjac (M. vaginalis), but uncertainties remain as, so far, no phylogenetic study has been conducted. Here, we analysed whole mitochondrial genomes of 59 archival and 16 contemporaneous samples to resolve uncertainties about their taxonomy and used red muntjacs as model for understanding the evolutionary history of other species in Southeast Asia.
Results
We found three distinct matrilineal groups of red muntjacs: Sri Lankan red muntjacs (including the Western Ghats) diverged first from other muntjacs about 1.5 Mya; later northern red muntjacs (including North India and Indochina) and southern red muntjacs (Sundaland) split around 1.12 Mya. The diversification of red muntjacs into these three main lineages was likely promoted by two Pleistocene barriers: one through the Indian subcontinent and one separating the Indochinese and Sundaic red muntjacs. Interestingly, we found a high level of gene flow within the populations of northern and southern red muntjacs, indicating gene flow between populations in Indochina and dispersal of red muntjacs over the exposed Sunda Shelf during the Last Glacial Maximum.
Conclusions
Our results provide new insights into the evolution of species in South and Southeast Asia as we found clear genetic differentiation in a widespread and generalist species, corresponding to two known biogeographical barriers: The Isthmus of Kra and the central Indian dry zone. In addition, our molecular data support either the delineation of three monotypic species or three subspecies, but more importantly these data highlight the conservation importance of the Sri Lankan/South Indian red muntjac.
Background: The members of the genus Muntiacus are of particular interest to evolutionary biologists due to their extreme chromosomal rearrangements and the ongoing discussions about the number of living species. Red muntjacs have the largest distribution of all muntjacs and were formerly considered as one species. Karyotype differences led to the provisional split between the Southern Red Muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak) and the Northern Red Muntjac (M. vaginalis), but uncertainties remain as, so far, no phylogenetic study has been conducted. Here, we analysed whole mitochondrial genomes of 59 archival and 16 contemporaneous samples to resolve uncertainties about their taxonomy and used red muntjacs as model for understanding the evolutionary history of other species in Southeast Asia. Results: We found three distinct matrilineal groups of red muntjacs: Sri Lankan red muntjacs (including the Western Ghats) diverged first from other muntjacs about 1.5 Mya; later northern red muntjacs (including North India and Indochina) and southern red muntjacs (Sundaland) split around 1.12 Mya. The diversification of red muntjacs into these three main lineages was likely promoted by two Pleistocene barriers: one through the Indian subcontinent and one separating the Indochinese and Sundaic red muntjacs. Interestingly, we found a high level of gene flow within the populations of northern and southern red muntjacs, indicating gene flow between populations in Indochina and dispersal of red muntjacs over the exposed Sunda Shelf during the Last Glacial Maximum. Conclusions: Our results provide new insights into the evolution of species in South and Southeast Asia as we found clear genetic differentiation in a widespread and generalist species, corresponding to two known biogeographical barriers: The Isthmus of Kra and the central Indian dry zone. In addition, our molecular data support either the delineation of three monotypic species or three subspecies, but more importantly these data highlight the conservation importance of the Sri Lankan/South Indian red muntjac.
Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost-benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.
Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost-benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.
ATP production requires the establishment of an electrochemical proton gradient across the inner mitochondrial membrane. Mitochondrial uncouplers dissipate this proton gradient and disrupt numerous cellular processes, including vesicular trafficking, mainly through energy depletion. Here we show that Endosidin9 (ES9), a novel mitochondrial uncoupler, is a potent inhibitor of clathrin-mediated endocytosis (CME) in different systems and that ES9 induces inhibition of CME not because of its effect on cellular ATP, but rather due to its protonophore activity that leads to cytoplasm acidification. We show that the known tyrosine kinase inhibitor tyrphostinA23, which is routinely used to block CME, displays similar properties, thus questioning its use as a specific inhibitor of cargo recognition by the AP-2 adaptor complex via tyrosine motif-based endocytosis signals. Furthermore, we show that cytoplasm acidification dramatically affects the dynamics and recruitment of clathrin and associated adaptors, and leads to reduction of phosphatidylinositol 4,5-biphosphate from the plasma membrane.
Ve van de giang day Ky thuat
(1998)
In both animal and plant kingdoms, body size is a fundamental but still poorly understood attribute of biological systems. Here we report that the Arabidopsis NAC transcription factor Regulator of Proteasomal Gene Expression' (RPX) controls leaf size by positively modulating proteasome activity. We further show that the cis-element recognized by RPX is evolutionarily conserved between higher plant species. Upon over-expression of RPX, plants exhibit reduced growth, which may be reversed by a low concentration of the pharmacological proteasome inhibitor MG132. These data suggest that the rate of protein turnover during growth is a critical parameter for determining final organ size.
Study region:
Ca Mau Province (CMP), Mekong Delta (MD), Vietnam.
Study focus:
Groundwater from deep aquifers is the most reliable source of freshwater in the MD but extensive overexploitation in the last decades led to the drop of hydraulic heads and negative environmental impacts. Therefore, a comprehensive groundwater investigation was conducted to evaluate its composition in the context of Quaternary marine transgression and regression cycles, geochemical processes as well as groundwater extraction.
New hydrological insights for the region:
The abundance of groundwater of Na-HCO3 type and distinct ion ratios, such as Na+/Cl-, indicate extensive freshwater intrusion in an initially saline hydrogeological system, with decreasing intensity from upper Pleistocene to deeper Miocene aquifers, most likely during the last marine regression phase 60-12 ka BP. Deviations from the conservative mixing line between the two endmembers seawater and freshwater are attributed to ion-exchange processes on mineral surfaces, making ion ratios in combination with a customized water type analysis a useful tool to distinguish between salinization and freshening processes. Elevated salinity in some areas is attributed to HCO3- generation by organic matter decomposition in marine sediments rather than to seawater intrusion. Nevertheless, a few randomly distributed locations show strong evidence of recent salinization in an early stage, which may be caused by the downwards migration of saline Holocene groundwater through natural and anthropogenic pathways into deep aquifers.
The Annamites mountain range of Southeast Asia which runs along the border of Viet Nam and Laos is an important biodiversity hotspot with high levels of endemism. However, that biodiversity is threatened by unsustainable hunting, and many protected areas across the region have been emptied of their wildlife. To better protect the unique species in the Annamites, it is crucial to have a better understanding of their ecology and distribution. Additionally, basic genetic information is needed to provide conservation stakeholders with essential information to facilitate conservation breeding and counteract the illegal wildlife trade. To date, this baseline information is lacking for many Annamites species.
This thesis aims to assess the effectiveness of using non-invasive collection methods, i.e. camera-trap surveys and leech-derived wildlife host DNA, in order to improve and enhance our understanding of ecology, distribution, and genetic diversity of the Annamites terrestrial mammals.
In chapter 1, we analysed data from a systematic landscape camera-trap survey using single-species occupancy models to assess the ecology and distribution of two little-known Annamite endemics, the Annamite dark muntjac (Muntiacus rooseveltorum / truongsonensis) and Annamite striped rabbit (Nesolagus timminsi), in multiple protected areas across the Annamites. This chapter provided the first in-depth information on their ecology, as well as distribution patterns at large spatial scales. Most notably, we found that the Annamite dark muntjac was predominantly found at higher elevations, while responses to elevation varied among study areas for the Annamite striped rabbit. We estimated occupancy probabilities for both endemics by using their responses to environmental and anthropogenic influences and used this information to make recommendations for targeted conservation actions. We discuss how the approach we used for these two Annamites endemics can be expanded for other little-known and threatened species in other tropical regions.
As is the case with ecology and distribution, very little is known about the genetic diversity of the Annamite striped rabbit and other mammals of the Annamites. This poor understanding is mainly attributed to the lack of a comprehensive DNA sample collection that covers the species’ entire distribution range, which is believed to be a consequence of the low density of mammals or the remoteness of species’ habitat. In order to overcome the difficulties when trying to collect DNA samples from elusive mammals, we applied invertebrate-derived DNA (iDNA) sampling via hematophagous leeches to indirectly obtain genetic materials of their terrestrial host mammals.
In chapter 2, leech-derived DNA was used to study the genetic diversity of the Annamite striped rabbit population. By analysing the DNA extracted from leech samples collected at multiple study areas of the central Annamites, we found a genetic variation with five haplotypes among nine obtained sequences. Despite this diversity, we found no clear phylogeographic pattern among the lagomorph’s populations in central Annamites. The findings have direct conservation implications for the species, as local stakeholders are currently establishing a conservation rescue and breeding facility for Annamite endemic species. Thus our results suggested that Annamite striped rabbits from multiple protected areas in central Annamites can be used as founders for the breeding program.
In chapter 3, the genetic material of six mammals, which are frequently found in Indochina's illegal wildlife trade, was extracted from leeches collected at six study sites across the Anamites. Species-specific genetic markers were used to obtain DNA fragments that were analysed together with Genbank reference sequences from other parts of the species’ distribution range. Our results showed that invertebrate-derived DNA can be used to fill the sampling gaps and provide genetic reference data that is needed for conservation breeding programmes or to counteract the illegal wildlife trade.
Overal, this dissertation provides the first insights in the ecology, distribution, and genetics of rare and threatened species of the Annamites by utilising camera traps and leech-derived DNA as two non-invasive collection methods. This information is essential for improving conservation efforts of local stakeholders and managers, especially for the Annamite endemics. Results in this dissertation also show the effectiveness of both non-invasive methods for studying terrestrial mammals at a landscape level. By expanding the application of these methods to other protected areas across the Annamites, we will further our understanding of ecology, distribution, and genetics of Annamite endemics. With such landscape-scale surveys, we are able to provide stakeholders with an overview of the current status of wildlife in the Annamites which supports efforts to protect these secretive species from illegal hunting and thus their extinction.
HESS observations of the binary system PSR B1259-63/LS 2883 around the 2010/2011 periastron passage
(2013)
Aims. We present very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) data from the gamma-ray binary system PSR B1259-63/LS 2883 taken around its periastron passage on 15th of December 2010 with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H. E. S. S.) of Cherenkov Telescopes. We aim to search for a possible TeV counterpart of the GeV flare detected by the Fermi LAT. In addition, we aim to study the current periastron passage in the context of previous observations taken at similar orbital phases, testing the repetitive behaviour of the source.
Methods. Observations at VHEs were conducted with H.E.S.S. from 9th to 16th of January 2011. The total dataset amounts to similar to 6 h of observing time. The data taken around the 2004 periastron passage were also re-analysed with the current analysis techniques in order to extend the energy spectrum above 3 TeV to fully compare observation results from 2004 and 2011.
Results. The source is detected in the 2011 data at a significance level of 11.5 sigma revealing an averaged integral flux above 1 TeV of (1.01 +/- 0.18(stat) +/- 0.20(sys)) x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1). The differential energy spectrum follows a power-law shape with a spectral index Gamma = 2.92 +/- 0.30(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and a flux normalisation at 1 TeV of N-0 = (1.95 +/- 0.32(stat) +/- 0.39(sys)) x 10(-12) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1). The measured light curve does not show any evidence for variability of the source on the daily scale. The re-analysis of the 2004 data yields results compatible with the published ones. The differential energy spectrum measured up to similar to 10 TeV is consistent with a power law with a spectral index Gamma = 2.81 +/- 0.10(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and a flux normalisation at 1 TeV of N-0 = (1.29 +/- 0.08(stat) +/- 0.26(sys)) x 10(-12) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1).
Conclusions. The measured integral flux and the spectral shape of the 2011 data are compatible with the results obtained around previous periastron passages. The absence of variability in the H.E.S.S. data indicates that the GeV flare observed by Fermi LAT in the time period covered also by H.E.S.S. observations originates in a different physical scenario than the TeV emission. Moreover, the comparison of the new results to the results from the 2004 observations made at a similar orbital phase provides a stronger evidence of the repetitive behaviour of the source.
Context. Globular clusters (GCs) are established emitters of high-energy (HE, 100 MeV < E < 100 GeV) gamma-ray radiation which could originate from the cumulative emission of the numerous millisecond pulsars (msPSRs) in the clusters’ cores or from inverse Compton (IC) scattering of relativistic leptons accelerated in the GC environment. These stellar clusters could also constitute a new class of sources in the very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray regime, judging from the recent detection of a signal from the direction of Terzan 5 with the H.E.S.S. telescope array. Aims. To search for VHE gamma-ray sources associated with other GCs, and to put constraints on leptonic emission models, we systematically analyzed the observations towards 15 GCs taken with the H. E. S. S. array of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Methods. We searched for point-like and extended VHE gamma-ray emission from each GC in our sample and also performed a stacking analysis combining the data from all GCs to investigate the hypothesis of a population of faint emitters. Assuming IC emission as the origin of the VHE gamma-ray signal from the direction of Terzan 5, we calculated the expected gamma-ray flux from each of the 15 GCs, based on their number of millisecond pulsars, their optical brightness and the energy density of background photon fields. Results. We did not detect significant VHE gamma-ray emission from any of the 15 GCs in either of the two analyses. Given the uncertainties related to the parameter determinations, the obtained flux upper limits allow to rule out the simple IC/msPSR scaling model for NGC6388 and NGC7078. The upper limits derived from the stacking analyses are factors between 2 and 50 below the flux predicted by the simple leptonic scaling model, depending on the assumed source extent and the dominant target photon fields. Therefore, Terzan 5 still remains exceptional among all GCs, as the VHE gamma-ray emission either arises from extra-ordinarily efficient leptonic processes, or from a recent catastrophic event, or is even unrelated to the GC itself.
The quasar PKS 1510-089 (z = 0.361) was observed with the H.E.S.S. array of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes during high states in the optical and GeV bands, to search for very high energy (VHE, defined as E >= 0.1 TeV) emission. VHE gamma-rays were detected with a statistical significance of 9.2 standard deviations in 15.8 h of H. E. S. S. data taken during March and April 2009. A VHE integral flux of I(0.15 TeV < E < 1.0TeV) = (1.0 +/- 0.2(stat) +/- 0.2(sys)) x 10(-11) cm(-2) s(-1) is measured. The best-fit power law to the VHE data has a photon index of G = 5.4 +/- 0.7(stat) +/- 0.3(sys). The GeV and optical light curves show pronounced variability during the period of H.E.S.S. observations. However, there is insufficient evidence to claim statistically significant variability in the VHE data. Because of its relatively high redshift, the VHE flux from PKS 1510-089 should suffer considerable attenuation in the intergalactic space due to the extragalactic background light (EBL). Hence, the measured gamma-ray spectrum is used to derive upper limits on the opacity due to EBL, which are found to be comparable with the previously derived limits from relatively-nearby BL Lac objects. Unlike typical VHE-detected blazars where the broadband spectrum is dominated by nonthermal radiation at all wavelengths, the quasar PKS 1510-089 has a bright thermal component in the optical to UV frequency band. Among all VHE detected blazars, PKS 1510-089 has the most luminous broad line region. The detection of VHE emission from this quasar indicates a low level of gamma - gamma absorption on the internal optical to UV photon field.
Gamma-ray line signatures can be expected in the very-high-energy (E-gamma > 100 GeV) domain due to self-annihilation or decay of dark matter (DM) particles in space. Such a signal would be readily distinguishable from astrophysical gamma-ray sources that in most cases produce continuous spectra that span over several orders of magnitude in energy. Using data collected with the H. E. S. S. gamma-ray instrument, upper limits on linelike emission are obtained in the energy range between similar to 500 GeV and similar to 25 TeV for the central part of the Milky Way halo and for extragalactic observations, complementing recent limits obtained with the Fermi-LAT instrument at lower energies. No statistically significant signal could be found. For monochromatic gamma-ray line emission, flux limits of (2 x 10(-7)-2 x 10(-5)) m(-2)s(-1)sr(-1) and (1 x 10(-8)- 2 x 10(-6)) m(-2)s(-1)sr(-1) are obtained for the central part of the Milky Way halo and extragalactic observations, respectively. For a DM particle mass of 1 TeV, limits on the velocity- averaged DM annihilation cross section <sigma upsilon >(chi chi ->gamma gamma) reach similar to 10(-27)cm(3)s(-1), based on the Einasto parametrization of the Galactic DM halo density profile. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.041301
Very high-energy gamma-ray emission from PKS 0447-439 was detected with the H. E. S. S. Cherenkov telescope array in December 2009. This blazar is one of the brightest extragalactic objects in the Fermi bright source list and has a hard spectrum in the MeV to GeV range. In the TeV range, a photon index of 3.89 +/- 0.37 (stat) +/- 0.22 (sys) and a flux normalisation at 1 TeV, phi(1) (TeV) = (3.5 +/- 1.1(stat) +/- 0.9(sys)) x 10(-13) cm(-2) s(-1) TeV-1 were found. The detection with H. E. S. S. triggered observations in the X-ray band with the Swift and RXTE telescopes. Simultaneous UV and optical data from Swift UVOT and data from the optical telescopes ATOM and ROTSE are also available. The spectrum and light curve measured with H. E. S. S. are presented and compared to the multi-wavelength data at lower energies. A rapid flare is seen in the Swift XRT and RXTE data, together with a flux variation in the UV band, at a time scale of the order of one day. A firm upper limit of z < 0.59 on the redshift of PKS 0447-439 is derived from the combined Fermi-LAT and H. E. S. S. data, given the assumptions that there is no upturn in the intrinsic spectrum above the Fermi-LAT energy range and that absorption on the extragalactic background light (EBL) is not weaker than the lower limit provided by current models. The spectral energy distribution is well described by a simple one-zone synchrotron self-Compton scenario, if the redshift of the source is less than z less than or similar to 0.4.
The 2010 very high energy gamma-ray flare and 10 years ofmulti-wavelength oservations of M 87
(2012)
The giant radio galaxy M 87 with its proximity (16 Mpc), famous jet, and very massive black hole ((3-6) x 10(9) M-circle dot) provides a unique opportunity to investigate the origin of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission generated in relativistic outflows and the surroundings of supermassive black holes. M 87 has been established as a VHE gamma-ray emitter since 2006. The VHE gamma-ray emission displays strong variability on timescales as short as a day. In this paper, results from a joint VHE monitoring campaign on M 87 by the MAGIC and VERITAS instruments in 2010 are reported. During the campaign, a flare at VHE was detected triggering further observations at VHE (H.E.S.S.), X-rays (Chandra), and radio (43 GHz Very Long Baseline Array, VLBA). The excellent sampling of the VHE gamma-ray light curve enables one to derive a precise temporal characterization of the flare: the single, isolated flare is well described by a two-sided exponential function with significantly different flux rise and decay times of tau(rise)(d) = (1.69 +/- 0.30) days and tau(decay)(d) = (0.611 +/- 0.080) days, respectively. While the overall variability pattern of the 2010 flare appears somewhat different from that of previous VHE flares in 2005 and 2008, they share very similar timescales (similar to day), peak fluxes (Phi(>0.35 TeV) similar or equal to (1-3) x 10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1)), and VHE spectra. VLBA radio observations of 43 GHz of the inner jet regions indicate no enhanced flux in 2010 in contrast to observations in 2008, where an increase of the radio flux of the innermost core regions coincided with a VHE flare. On the other hand, Chandra X-ray observations taken similar to 3 days after the peak of the VHE gamma-ray emission reveal an enhanced flux from the core (flux increased by factor similar to 2; variability timescale <2 days). The long-term (2001-2010) multi-wavelength (MWL) light curve of M 87, spanning from radio to VHE and including data from Hubble Space Telescope, Liverpool Telescope, Very Large Array, and European VLBI Network, is used to further investigate the origin of the VHE gamma-ray emission. No unique, common MWL signature of the three VHE flares has been identified. In the outer kiloparsec jet region, in particular in HST-1, no enhanced MWL activity was detected in 2008 and 2010, disfavoring it as the origin of the VHE flares during these years. Shortly after two of the three flares (2008 and 2010), the X-ray core was observed to be at a higher flux level than its characteristic range (determined from more than 60 monitoring observations: 2002-2009). In 2005, the strong flux dominance of HST-1 could have suppressed the detection of such a feature. Published models for VHE gamma-ray emission from M 87 are reviewed in the light of the new data.
Large-scale floodplain sediment dynamics in the Mekong Delta : present state and future prospects
(2014)
The Mekong Delta (MD) sustains the livelihood and food security of millions of people in Vietnam and Cambodia. It is known as the “rice bowl” of South East Asia and has one of the world’s most productive fisheries. Sediment dynamics play a major role for the high productivity of agriculture and fishery in the delta. However, the MD is threatened by climate change, sea level rise and unsustainable development activities in the Mekong Basin. But despite its importance and the expected threats, the understanding of the present and future sediment dynamics in the MD is very limited. This is a consequence of its large extent, the intricate system of rivers, channels and floodplains and the scarcity of observations. Thus this thesis aimed at (1) the quantification of suspended sediment dynamics and associated sediment-nutrient deposition in floodplains of the MD, and (2) assessed the impacts of likely future boundary changes on the sediment dynamics in the MD. The applied methodology combines field experiments and numerical simulation to quantify and predict the sediment dynamics in the entire delta in a spatially explicit manner. The experimental part consists of a comprehensive procedure to monitor quantity and spatial variability of sediment and associated nutrient deposition for large and complex river floodplains, including an uncertainty analysis. The measurement campaign applied 450 sediment mat traps in 19 floodplains over the MD for a complete flood season. The data also supports quantification of nutrient deposition in floodplains based on laboratory analysis of nutrient fractions of trapped sedimentation.The main findings are that the distribution of grain size and nutrient fractions of suspended sediment are homogeneous over the Vietnamese floodplains. But the sediment deposition within and between ring dike floodplains shows very high spatial variability due to a high level of human inference. The experimental findings provide the essential data for setting up and calibration of a large-scale sediment transport model for the MD. For the simulation studies a large scale hydrodynamic model was developed in order to quantify large-scale floodplain sediment dynamics. The complex river-channel-floodplain system of the MD is described by a quasi-2D model linking a hydrodynamic and a cohesive sediment transport model. The floodplains are described as quasi-2D presentations linked to rivers and channels modeled in 1D by using control structures. The model setup, based on the experimental findings, ignored erosion and re-suspension processes due to a very high degree of human interference during the flood season. A two-stage calibration with six objective functions was developed in order to calibrate both the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modules. The objective functions include hydraulic and sediment transport parameters in main rivers, channels and floodplains. The model results show, for the first time, the tempo-spatial distribution of sediment and associated nutrient deposition rates in the whole MD. The patterns of sediment transport and deposition are quantified for different sub-systems. The main factors influencing spatial sediment dynamics are the network of rivers, channels and dike-rings, sluice gate operations, magnitude of the floods and tidal influences. The superposition of these factors leads to high spatial variability of the sediment transport and deposition, in particular in the Vietnamese floodplains. Depending on the flood magnitude, annual sediment loads reaching the coast vary from 48% to 60% of the sediment load at Kratie, the upper boundary of the MD. Deposited sediment varies from 19% to 23% of the annual load at Kratie in Cambodian floodplains, and from 1% to 6% in the compartmented and diked floodplains in Vietnam. Annual deposited nutrients (N, P, K), which are associated to the sediment deposition, provide on average more than 50% of mineral fertilizers typically applied for rice crops in non-flooded ring dike compartments in Vietnam. This large-scale quantification provides a basis for estimating the benefits of the annual Mekong floods for agriculture and fishery, for assessing the impacts of future changes on the delta system, and further studies on coastal deposition/erosion. For the estimation of future prospects a sensitivity-based approach is applied to assess the response of floodplain hydraulics and sediment dynamics to the changes in the delta boundaries including hydropower development, climate change in the Mekong River Basin and effective sea level rise. The developed sediment model is used to simulate the mean sediment transport and sediment deposition in the whole delta system for the baseline (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) periods. For each driver we derive a plausible range of future changes and discretize it into five levels, resulting in altogether 216 possible factor combinations. Our results thus cover all plausible future pathways of sediment dynamics in the delta based on current knowledge. The uncertainty of the range of the resulting impacts can be decreased in case more information on these drivers becomes available. Our results indicate that the hydropower development dominates the changes in sediment dynamics of the Mekong Delta, while sea level rise has the smallest effect. The floodplains of Vietnamese Mekong Delta are much more sensitive to the changes compared to the other subsystems of the delta. In terms of median changes of the three combined drivers, the inundation extent is predicted to increase slightly, but the overall floodplain sedimentation would be reduced by approximately 40%, while the sediment load to the Sea would diminish to half of the current rates. These findings provide new and valuable information on the possible impacts of future development on the delta, and indicate the most vulnerable areas. Thus, the presented results are a significant contribution to the ongoing international discussion on the hydropower development in the Mekong basin and its impact on the Mekong delta.
We introduce the asprilo1 framework to facilitate experimental studies of approaches addressing complex dynamic applications. For this purpose, we have chosen the domain of robotic intra-logistics. This domain is not only highly relevant in the context of today's fourth industrial revolution but it moreover combines a multitude of challenging issues within a single uniform framework. This includes multi-agent planning, reasoning about action, change, resources, strategies, etc. In return, asprilo allows users to study alternative solutions as regards effectiveness and scalability. Although asprilo relies on Answer Set Programming and Python, it is readily usable by any system complying with its fact-oriented interface format. This makes it attractive for benchmarking and teaching well beyond logic programming. More precisely, asprilo consists of a versatile benchmark generator, solution checker and visualizer as well as a bunch of reference encodings featuring various ASP techniques. Importantly, the visualizer's animation capabilities are indispensable for complex scenarios like intra-logistics in order to inspect valid as well as invalid solution candidates. Also, it allows for graphically editing benchmark layouts that can be used as a basis for generating benchmark suites.
Today, the Mekong Delta in the southern of Vietnam is home for 18 million people. The delta also accounts for more than half of the country’s food production and 80% of the exported rice. Due to the low elevation, it is highly susceptible to the risk of fluvial and coastal flooding. Although extreme floods often result in excessive damages and economic losses, the annual flood pulse from the Mekong is vital to sustain agricultural cultivation and livelihoods of million delta inhabitants.
Delta-wise risk management and adaptation strategies are required to mitigate the adverse impacts from extreme events while capitalising benefits from floods. However, a proper flood risk management has not been implemented in the VMD, because the quantification of flood damage is often overlooked and the risks are thus not quantified. So far, flood management has been exclusively focused on engineering measures, i.e. high- and low- dyke systems, aiming at flood-free or partial inundation control without any consideration of the actual risks or a cost-benefit analysis. Therefore, an analysis of future delta flood dynamics driven these stressors is valuable to facilitate the transition from sole hazard control towards a risk management approach, which is more cost-effective and also robust against future changes in risk.
Built on these research gaps, this thesis investigates the current state and future projections of flood hazard, damage and risk to rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the VMD. The study quantifies the changes in risk and hazard brought by the development of delta-based flood control measures in the last decades, and analyses the expected changes in risk driven by the changing climate, rising sea-level and deltaic land subsidence, and finally the development of hydropower projects in the Mekong Basin. For this purpose, flood trend analyses and comprehensive hydraulic modelling were performed, together with the development of a concept to quantify flood damage and risk to rice plantation.
The analysis of observed flood levels revealed strong and robust increasing trends of peak and duration downstream of the high-dyke areas with a step change in 2000/2001, i.e. after the disastrous flood which initiated the high-dyke development. These changes were in contrast to the negative trends detected upstream, suggested that high-dyke development has shifted flood hazard downstream. Findings of the trend’s analysis were later confirmed by hydraulic simulations of the two recent extreme floods in 2000 and 2011, where the hydrological boundaries and dyke system settings were interchanged.
However, the high-dyke system was not the only and often not the main cause for a shift of flood hazard, as a comparative analysis of these two extreme floods proved. The high-dyke development was responsible for 20–90% of the observed changes in flood level between 2000 and 2011, with large spatial variances. The particular flood hydrograph of the two events had the highest contribution in the northern part of the delta, while the tidal level had 2–3 times higher influence than the high-dyke in the lower-central and coastal areas downstream of high-dyke areas. The impact of the high-dyke development was highest in the areas closely downstream of the high-dyke area just south of the Cambodia-Vietnam border. The hydraulic simulations also validated that the concurrence of the flood peak with spring tides, i.e. high sea level along the coast, amplified the flood level and inundation in the central and coastal regions substantially.
The risk assessment quantified the economic losses of rice cultivation to USD 25.0 and 115 million (0.02–0.1% of the total GDP of Vietnam in 2011) corresponding to the 10-year and the 100-year floods, with an expected annual damage of about USD 4.5 million. A particular finding is that the flood damage was highly sensitive to flood timing. Here, a 10-year event with an early peak, i.e. late August-September, could cause as much damage as a 100-year event that peaked in October. This finding underlines the importance of a reliable early flood warning, which could substantially reduce the damage to rice crops and thus the risk.
The developed risk assessment concept was furthermore applied to investigate two high-dyke development alternatives, which are currently under discussion among the administrative bodies in Vietnam, but also in the public. The first option favouring the utilization of the current high-dyke compartments as flood retention areas instead for rice cropping during the flood season could reduce flood hazard and expected losses by 5–40%, depending on the region of the delta. On the contrary, the second option promoting the further extension of the areas protected by high-dyke to facilitate third rice crop planting on a larger area, tripled the current expected annual flood damage. This finding challenges the expected economic benefit of triple rice cultivation, in addition to the already known reducing of nutrient supply by floodplain sedimentation and thus higher costs for fertilizers.
The economic benefits of the high-dyke and triple rice cropping system is further challenged by the changes in the flood dynamics to be expected in future. For the middle of the 21st century (2036-2065) the effective sea-level rise an increase of the inundation extent by 20–27% was projected. This corresponds to an increase of flood damage to rice crops in dry, normal and wet year by USD 26.0, 40.0 and 82.0 million in dry, normal and wet year compared to the baseline period 1971-2000.
Hydraulic simulations indicated that the planned massive development of hydropower dams in the Mekong Basin could potentially compensate the increase in flood hazard and agriculture losses stemming from climate change. However, the benefits of dams as mitigation of flood losses are highly uncertain, because a) the actual development of the dams is highly disputed, b) the operation of the dams is primarily targeted at power generation, not flood control, and c) this would require international agreements and cooperation, which is difficult to achieve in South-East Asia. The theoretical flood mitigation benefit is additionally challenged by a number of negative impacts of the dam development, e.g. disruption of floodplain inundation in normal, non-extreme flood years. Adding to the certain reduction of sediment and nutrient load to the floodplains, hydropower dams will drastically impair rice and agriculture production, the basis livelihoods of million delta inhabitants.
In conclusion, the VMD is expected to face increasing threats of tidal induced floods in the coming decades. Protection of the entire delta coastline solely with “hard” engineering flood protection structures is neither technically nor economically feasible, adaptation and mitigation actions are urgently required. Better control and reduction of groundwater abstraction is thus strongly recommended as an immediate and high priority action to reduce the land subsidence and thus tidal flooding and salinity intrusion in the delta. Hydropower development in the Mekong basin might offer some theoretical flood protection for the Mekong delta, but due to uncertainties in the operation of the dams and a number of negative effects, the dam development cannot be recommended as a strategy for flood management. For the Vietnamese authorities, it is advisable to properly maintain the existing flood protection structures and to develop flexible risk-based flood management plans. In this context the study showed that the high-dyke compartments can be utilized for emergency flood management in extreme events. For this purpose, a reliable flood forecast is essential, and the action plan should be materialised in official documents and legislation to assure commitment and consistency in the implementation and operation.