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Retention and transformation of nutrients within a river catchment are important mechanisms influencing water quality measured at the watershed outlet. Nutrient storage and reduction can occur in soils as well as in the river and should be considered in water quality modelling. Consideration is possible using various methods at several points during modelling cascade. The study compares the effects of five different equation sets implemented into the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), one describing terrestrial and four in-stream retention with a rising complexity (including algal growth and death at the highest complexity level). The influences of the different methods alone and in combinations on water quality model outputs (NO3-N, NH4-N, PO4-P) were analyzed for the outlet of the large-scale Saale basin in Germany. Experiments revealed that nutrient forms coming primarily from diffuse sources are mostly influenced by retention processes in the soils of the catchment, and river processes are less important. Nutrients introduced to the river mainly by point sources are more subject to retention by in-stream processes, but both nutrient retention and transformation processes in soils and rivers have to be included. Although the best overall results could be achieved at the highest complexity level, the calibration efforts for this case are extremely high, and only minor improvements of overall model performance with the highest complexity were detected. Therefore, it could be reasoned that for some research questions also less complex model approaches would be sufficient, which could help to reduce unnecessary complexity and diminish high uncertainty in water quality modelling at the catchment scale. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.