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Volcanic eruptions are often preceded by seismic activity that can be used to quantify the volcanic activity. In order to allow consistent inference of the volcanic activity state from the observed seismicity patterns, objective and time-invariant classification results achievable by automatic systems should be preferred. Most automatic classification approaches need a large preclassified data set for training the system. However, in case of a volcanic crisis, we are often confronted with a lack of training data due to insufficient prior observations. In the worst case (e. g., volcanic crisis related reconfiguration of stations), there are even no prior observations available. Finally, due to the imminent crisis there might be no time for the time-consuming process of preparing a training data set. For this reason, we have developed a novel seismic-event spotting technique in order to be less dependent on previously acquired data bases and classification schemes. We are using a learning-while-recording approach based on a minimum number of reference waveforms, thus allowing for the build-up of a classification scheme as early as interesting events have been identified. First, short-term wave-field parameters (here, polarization and spectral attributes) are extracted from a continuous seismic data stream. The sequence of multidimensional feature vectors is then used to identify a fixed number of clusters in the feature space. Based on this general description of the overall wave field by a mixture of multivariate Gaussians, we are able to learn particular event classifiers (here, hidden Markov models) from a single waveform example. To show the capabilities of this new approach we apply the algorithm to a data set recorded at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. Supported by very high classification rates, we conclude that the suggested approach provides a valuable tool for volcano monitoring systems.
Constructing a hidden Markov Model based earthquake detector: application to induced seismicity
(2012)
The triggering or detection of seismic events out of a continuous seismic data stream is one of the key issues of an automatic or semi-automatic seismic monitoring system. In the case of dense networks, either local or global, most of the implemented trigger algorithms are based on a large number of active stations. However, in the case of only few available stations or small events, for example, like in monitoring volcanoes or hydrothermal power plants, common triggers often show high false alarms. In such cases detection algorithms are of interest, which show reasonable performance when operating even on a single station. In this context, we apply Hidden Markov Models (HMM) which are algorithms borrowed from speech recognition. However, many pitfalls need to be avoided to apply speech recognition technology directly to earthquake detection. We show the fit of the model parameters in an innovative way. State clustering is introduced to refine the intrinsically assumed time dependency of the HMMs and we explain the effect coda has on the recognition results. The methodology is then used for the detection of anthropogenicly induced earthquakes for which we demonstrate for a period of 3.9 months of continuous data that the single station HMM earthquake detector can achieve similar detection rates as a common trigger in combination with coincidence sums over two stations. To show the general applicability of state clustering we apply the proposed method also to earthquake classification at Mt. Merapi volcano, Indonesia.
Forecasting seismo-volcanic activity by using the dynamical behavior of volcanic earthquake rates
(2012)
We present a novel approach for short-term forecasting of volcano seismic activity. Volcanic earthquakes can be seen as a response mechanism of the earth crust to stresses induced by magma injection. From this point of view the temporal evolution of seismicity can be represented as a diffusion process which compensates pressure differences. By means of this dynamical approach we are able to estimate the system behavior in the near future which in turn allows us to forecast the evolution of the earthquake rate for the next time span from actual and past observations. For this purpose we model the earthquake rate as a random walk process embedded in a moving and deforming potential function. The center of the potential function is given by a moving average of the random walk's trace. We successfully apply this procedure to estimate the next day seismicity at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, over a time period of six years. When comparing the dynamical approach to the well known method of material failure forecast we find much better predictions of the critical stages of volcanic activity using the new approach.
Other than commonly assumed in seismology, the phase velocity of Rayleigh waves is not necessarily a single-valued function of frequency. In fact, a single Rayleigh mode can exist with three different values of phase velocity at one frequency. We demonstrate this for the first higher mode on a realistic shallow seismic structure of a homogeneous layer of unconsolidated sediments on top of a half-space of solid rock (LOH). In the case of LOH a significant contrast to the half-space is required to produce the phenomenon. In a simpler structure of a homogeneous layer with fixed (rigid) bottom (LFB) the phenomenon exists for values of Poisson's ratio between 0.19 and 0.5 and is most pronounced for P-wave velocity being three times S-wave velocity (Poisson's ratio of 0.4375). A pavement-like structure (PAV) of two layers on top of a half-space produces the multivaluedness for the fundamental mode. Programs for the computation of synthetic dispersion curves are prone to trouble in such cases. Many of them use mode-follower algorithms which loose track of the dispersion curve and miss the multivalued section. We show results for well established programs. Their inability to properly handle these cases might be one reason why the phenomenon of multivaluedness went unnoticed in seismological Rayleigh wave research for so long. For the very same reason methods of dispersion analysis must fail if they imply wave number k(l)(omega) for the lth Rayleigh mode to be a single-valued function of frequency.. This applies in particular to deconvolution methods like phase-matched filters. We demonstrate that a slant-stack analysis fails in the multivalued section, while a Fourier-Bessel transformation captures the complete Rayleigh-wave signal. Waves of finite bandwidth in the multivalued section propagate with positive group-velocity and negative phase-velocity. Their eigenfunctions appear conventional and contain no conspicuous feature.
Nowadays, an increasing amount of seismic data is collected by daily observatory routines. The basic step for successfully analyzing those data is the correct detection of various event types. However, the visually scanning process is a time-consuming task. Applying standard techniques for detection like the STA/LTAtrigger still requires the manual control for classification. Here, we present a useful alternative. The incoming data stream is scanned automatically for events of interest. A stochastic classifier, called hidden Markov model, is learned for each class of interest enabling the recognition of highly variable waveforms. In contrast to other automatic techniques as neural networks or support vector machines the algorithm allows to start the classification from scratch as soon as interesting events are identified. Neither the tedious process of collecting training samples nor a time-consuming configuration of the classifier is required. An approach originally introduced for the volcanic task force action allows to learn classifier properties from a single waveform example and some hours of background recording. Besides a reduction of required workload this also enables to detect very rare events. Especially the latter feature provides a milestone point for the use of seismic devices in alpine warning systems. Furthermore, the system offers the opportunity to flag new signal classes that have not been defined before. We demonstrate the application of the classification system using a data set from the Swiss Seismological Survey achieving very high recognition rates. In detail we document all refinements of the classifier providing a step-by-step guide for the fast set up of a well-working classification system.
Surface wave methods gained in the past decades a primary role in many seismic projects. Specifically, they are often used to retrieve a 1D shear wave velocity model or to estimate the V-s,V-30 at a site. The complexity of the interpretation process and the variety of possible approaches to surface wave analysis make it very hard to set a fixed standard to assure quality and reliability of the results. The present guidelines provide practical information on the acquisition and analysis of surface wave data by giving some basic principles and specific suggestions related to the most common situations. They are primarily targeted to non-expert users approaching surface wave testing, but can be useful to specialists in the field as a general reference. The guidelines are based on the experience gained within the InterPACIFIC project and on the expertise of the participants in acquisition and analysis of surface wave data.
In the present study, we investigated the dispersion characteristics of medium-to-long period Rayleigh waves (2 s < T < 20 s) using both single-station techniques (multiple-filter analysis, and phase-match filter) and multichannel techniques (horizontal slowness [p] and angular frequency [omega] stack, and cross-correlation) to determine the velocity structure for the Mt. Etna volcano. We applied these techniques to a dataset of teleseisms, as regional and local earthquakes recorded by two broad-band seismic arrays installed at Mt. Etna in 2002 and 2005, during two seismic surveys organized by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), sezione di Napoli. The dispersion curves obtained showed phase velocities ranging from 1.5 km/s to 4.0 km/s in the frequency band 0.05 Hz to 0.45 Hz. We inverted the average phase velocity dispersion curves using a non-linear approach, to obtain a set of shear-wave velocity models with maximum resolution depths of 25 km to 30 km. Moreover, the presence of lateral velocity contrasts was checked by dividing the whole array into seven triangular sub-arrays and inverting the dispersion curves relative to each triangle.
Ambient vibration measurements with small, temporary arrays that produce estimates of surface wave dispersion have become increasingly popular as a low-cost, non-invasive tool for site characterisation. An important requirement for these measurements to be meaningful, however, is the temporal consistency and repeatability of the resulting dispersion and spatial autocorrelation curve estimates. Data acquired within several European research projects (NERIES task JRA4, SESAME, and other multinational experiments) offer the chance to investigate the variability of the derived data products. The dataset analysed here consists of repeated array measurements, with several years of time elapsed between them. The measurements were conducted by different groups in different seasons, using different instrumentations and array layouts, at six sites in Greece and Italy. Ambient vibration amplitude spectra and locations of dominant sources vary between the two measurements at each location. Still, analysis indicates that this does not influence the derived dispersion information, which is stable in time and neither influenced by the instrumentation nor the analyst. The frequency range over which the dispersion curves and spatial autocorrelation curves can be reliably estimated depends on the array dimensions (minimum and maximum aperture) used in the specific deployment, though, and may accordingly vary between the repeated experiments. The relative contribution of Rayleigh and Love waves to the wavefield can likewise change between repeated measurements. The observed relative contribution of Rayleigh waves is generally at or below 50%, with especially low values for the rural sites. Besides, the visibility of higher modes depends on the noise wavefield conditions. The similarity of the dispersion and autocorrelation curves measured at each site indicates that the curves are stable, mainly determined by the sub-surface structure, and can thus be used to derive velocity information with depth. Differences between velocity models for the same site derived from independently determined dispersion and autocorrelation curves-as observed in other studies-are consequently not adequately explained by uncertainties in the measurement part.
This study presents an unsupervised feature selection and learning approach for the discovery and intuitive imaging of significant temporal patterns in seismic single-station or network recordings. For this purpose, the data are parametrized by real-valued feature vectors for short time windows using standard analysis tools for seismic data, such as frequency-wavenumber, polarization, and spectral analysis. We use Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) for a data-driven feature selection, visualization and clustering procedure, which is in particular suitable for high-dimensional data sets. Our feature selection method is based on significance testing using the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test for-individual features and on correlation hunting with SOMs in feature subsets. Using synthetics composed of Rayleigh and Love waves and real-world data, we show the robustness and the improved discriminative power of that approach compared to feature subsets manually selected from individual wavefield parametrization methods. Furthermore, the capability of the clustering and visualization techniques to investigate the discrimination of wave phases is shown by means of synthetic waveforms and regional earthquake recordings.