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Much progress has been made in estimating recurrence intervals of great and giant subduction earthquakes using terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine paleoseismic archives. Recent detailed records suggest these earthquakes may have variable recurrence periods and magnitudes forming supercycles. Understanding seismic supercycles requires long paleoseismic archives that record timing and magnitude of such events. Turbidite paleoseismic archives may potentially extend past earthquake records to the Pleistocene and can thus complement commonly shorter-term terrestrial archives. However, in order to unambiguously establish recurring seismicity as a trigger mechanism for turbidity currents, synchronous deposition of turbidites in widely spaced, isolated depocenters has to be ascertained. Furthermore, characteristics that predispose a seismically active continental margin to turbidite paleoseismology and the correct sample site selection have to be taken into account.
Here we analyze 8 marine sediment cores along 950 km of the Chile margin to test for the feasibility of compiling detailed and continuous paleoseismic records based on turbidites. Our results suggest that the deposition of areally widespread, synchronous turbidites triggered by seismicity is largely controlled by sediment supply and, hence, the climatic and geomorphic conditions of the adjacent subaerial setting. The feasibility of compiling a turbidite paleoseismic record depends on the delicate balance between sufficient sediment supply providing material to fail frequently during seismic shaking and sufficiently low sedimentation rates to allow for coeval accumulation of planktonic foraminifera for high-resolution radiocarbon dating.
We conclude that offshore northern central Chile (29-32.5 degrees S) Holocene turbidite paleoseismology is not feasible, because sediment supply from the semi-arid mainland is low and almost no Holocene turbidity-current deposits are found in the cores. In contrast, in the humid region between 36 and 38 degrees S frequent Holocene turbidite deposition may generally correspond to paleoseismic events. However, high terrigenous sedimentation rates prevent high-resolution radiocarbon dating. The climatic transition region between 32.5 and 36 degrees S appears to be best suited for turbidite paleoseismology. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
This work explores the control of fore-arc structure on segmentation of megathrust earthquake ruptures using coastal geomorphic markers. The Arauco-Nahuelbuta region at the south-central Chile margin constitutes an anomalous fore- arc sector in terms of topography, geology, and exhumation, located within the overlap between the Concepcion and Valdivia megathrust segments. This boundary, however, is only based on similar to 500 years of historical records. We integrate deformed marine terraces dated by cosmogenic nuclides, syntectonic sediments, published fission track data, seismic reflection profiles, and microseismicity to analyze this earthquake boundary over 10(2) -10(6) years. Rapid exhumation of Nahuelbuta's dome-like core started at 4 +/- 1.2 Ma, coeval with inversion of the adjacent Arauco basin resulting in emergence of the Arauco peninsula. Here, similarities between topography, spatiotemporal trends in fission track ages, Pliocene-Pleistocene growth strata, and folded marine terraces suggest that margin-parallel shortening has dominated since Pliocene time. This shortening likely results from translation of a fore-arc sliver or microplate, decoupled from South America by an intra-arc strike-slip fault. Microplate collision against a buttress leads to localized uplift at Arauco accrued by deep-seated reverse faults, as well as incipient oroclinal bending. The extent of the Valdivia segment, which ruptured last in 1960 with an M-w 9.5 event, equals the inferred microplate. We propose that mechanical homogeneity of the fore-arc microplate delimits the Valdivia segment and that a marked discontinuity in the continental basement at Arauco acts as an inhomogeneous barrier controlling nucleation and propagation of 1960-type ruptures. As microplate-related deformation occurs since the Pliocene, we propose that this earthquake boundary and the extent of the Valdivia segment are spatially stable seismotectonic features at million year scale.
Central Anatolia is a low-relief, high-elevation region where decadal-scale deformation rates estimated from space geodesy suggest low strain rates within a stiff microplate. However, numerous Quaternary faults have been mapped within this low-strain region and estimating their slip rate and seismic potential is important for hazard assessments in an area of increasing infrastructural development. Here we focus on the Sultanhani Fault (SF), which constitutes an integral part of the Eskisehir-Cihanbeyli Fault System, and use deformed maximum highstand shorelines of palaeo-lake Konya to estimate tectonic slip rates at millennial scale. Some of these shorelines were previously interpreted as fault scarps, but we provide conclusive evidence for their erosional origin. We found that shoreline-angle elevations estimated from differential GPS profiles record vertical displacements of 10.2 m across the SF. New radiocarbon ages of lacustrine molluscs suggest 22.4 m of relative lake-level fall between 22.1 +/- 0.3 and 21.7 +/- 0.4 cal. kaBP, constraining the timing of abrupt abandonment of the highstand shoreline. Models of lithospheric rebound associated with regressions of the Tuz Golu and Konya palaeolakes predict only similar to 1 m of regional-scale uplift across the Konya Basin. Dislocation models of displaced shorelines suggest fault-slip rates of 1.5 and 1.8 mm yr(-1) for planar and listric fault geometries, respectively, providing reasonable results for the latter. We found fault scarps in the Nasuhpinar mudflat that likely represent the most recent ground-breaking rupture of the SF, with an average vertical displacement of 1.2 +/- 0.5 m estimated from 54 topographic profiles, equivalent to a M similar to 6.5-6.9 earthquake based on empirical scaling laws. If such events were characteristic during the ultimate 21 ka, a relatively short recurrence time of similar to 800-900 yr would be needed to account for the millennial slip rate. Alternatively, the fault scarp at Nasuhpinar might represent a larger earthquake requiring more frequent smaller events to account for the millennial rate. The relatively fast slip rate of the SF over the past 21 ka is unlikely to have persisted over longer timescales and might reflect spatiotemporal variations in deformation rates within kinematically-linked fault systems within Central Anatolia, or a transient perturbation to the local stress field or fault strength. Such perturbation might have been related to climatically controlled changes in surface and near-surface loads and by interactions among the different tectonic processes that have been proposed to drive the overall slow uplift and associated extension in the Central Anatolian Plateau.
The structural evolution of calderas in rifts helps to characterize the spatiotemporal relationships between magmatism, long wavelength crustal deformation and the formation of tectonic deformation zones along the rift axis. We document the structural characteristics of the c. 36 ka old Menengai Caldera located within a young zone of extension in the central Kenya Rift. Field mapping and high-resolution digital surface models show that NNE-striking Holocene normal faults perpendicular to the regional ESE-WNWextension direction dominate the interior sectors of the rift. Inside the caldera, these structures are overprinted by post-collapse doming and faulting of the magmatic centre, resulting in obliquely slipping normal faults bounding a resurgence horst. Radiocarbon dating of faulted units as young as 5 ka cal BP and the palaeo-shorelines of a lake formed during the African Humid Period in the Nakuru Basin indicate that volcanism and fault activity inside and in the vicinity of Menengai must have been sustained during the Holocene. Our analysis confirms that the caldera is located at the centre of an extending rift segment and suggests that other magmatic centres and young zones of faulting along the volcano-tectonic axis of the Kenya Rift may constitute nucleation points of faulting that ultimately foster future continental break-up.
A comparison of deformation rates in active rifts over different temporal scales may help to decipher variations in their structural evolution, controlling mechanisms, and evolution of sedimentary environments through time. Here we use deformed lake shorelines in the Suguta and Turkana basins in northern Kenya as strain markers to estimate deformation rates at the 10(3)-10(4) yr time scale and compare them with rates spanning 10(1)-10(7) yr. Both basins are internally drained today, but until 7 to 5 kyr lake levels were 300 and 100 m higher, respectively, maintained by the elevation of overflow sills connecting them with the Nile drainage. Protracted high lake levels resulted in formation of a maximum highstand shoreline - a distinct geomorphic feature virtually continuous for several tens of kilometers. We surveyed the elevation of this geomorphic marker at 45 sites along >100 km of the rift, and use the overflow sills as vertical datum. Thin-shell elastic and thermomechanical models for this region predict up to similar to 10 m of rapid isostatic rebound associated with lake-level falls lasting until similar to 2 kyr ago. Holocene cumulative throw rates along four rift-normal profiles are 6.8-8.5 mm/yr, or 7.5-9.6 mm/yr if isostatic rebound is considered. Assuming fault dips of 55-65, inferred from seismic reflection profiles, we obtained extension rates of 3.2-6 mm/yr (including uncertainties in field measurements, fault dips, and ages), or 3.5-6.7 mm/yr considering rebound. Our estimates are consistent, within uncertainties, with extension rates of 4-5.1 mm/yr predicted by a modern plate-kinematic model and plate reconstructions since 3.2 Myr. The Holocene strain rate of 10(-15) s(-1) is similar to estimates on the similar to 10(6) yr scale, but over an order of magnitude higher than on the similar to 10(7) yr scale. This is coherent with continuous localization and narrowing of the plate boundary, implying that the lithospheric blocks limiting the Kenya Rift are relatively rigid. Increasing strain rate under steady extension rate suggests that, as the magnitude of extension and crustal thinning increases, the role of regional processes such as weakening by volcanism becomes dominant over far-field plate tectonics controlling the breakup process and the transition from continental rifting to oceanic spreading.
The 'wet' early to mid-Holocene of tropical Africa, with its enhanced monsoon, ended with an abrupt shift toward drier conditions and was ultimately replaced by a drier climate that has persisted until the present day. The forcing mechanisms, the timing, and the spatial extent of this major climatic transition are not well understood and remain the subject of ongoing research. We have used a detailed palaeo-shoreline record from Lake Turkana (Kenya) to decipher and characterise this marked climatic transition in East Africa. We present a high-precision survey of well-preserved palaeo-shorelines, new radiocarbon ages from shoreline deposits, and oxygen-isotope measurements on freshwater mollusk shells to elucidate the Holocene moisture history from former lake water-levels in this climatically sensitive region. In combination with previously published data our study shows that during the early Holocene the water-level in Lake Turkana was high and the lake overflowed temporarily into the White Nile drainage system. During the mid-Holocene (similar to 5270 +/- 300 cal. yr BP), however, the lake water-level fell by similar to 50 m, coeval with major episodes of aridity on the African continent. A comparison between palaeo-hydrological and archaeological data from the Turkana Basin suggests that the mid-Holocene climatic transition was associated with fundamental changes in prehistoric cultures, highlighting the significance of natural climate variability and associated periods of protracted drought as major environmental stress factors affecting human occupation in the East African Rift System. (
The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere.
Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.
Fast Holocene slip and localized strain along the Liquiñe-Ofqui strike-slip fault system, Chile
(2021)
In active tectonic settings dominated by strike-slip kinematics, slip partitioning across subparallel faults is a common feature; therefore, assessing the degree of partitioning and strain localization is paramount for seismic hazard assessments. Here, we estimate a slip rate of 18.8 +/- 2.0 mm/year over the past 9.0 +/- 0.1 ka for a single strand of the Liquirie-Ofqui Fault System, which straddles the Main Cordillera in Southern Chile. This Holocene rate accounts for similar to 82% of the trench-parallel component of oblique plate convergence and is similar to million-year estimates integrated over the entire fault system. Our results imply that strain localizes on a single fault at millennial time scale but over longer time scales strain localization is not sustained. The fast millennial slip rate in the absence of historical Mw> 6.5 earthquakes along the Liquine-Ofqui Fault System implies either a component of aseismic slip or Mw similar to 7 earthquakes involving multi-trace ruptures and > 150-year repeat times. Our results have implications for the understanding of strike-slip fault system dynamics within volcanic arcs and seismic hazard assessments.
The segmentation of major fault systems in subduction zones controls earthquake magnitude and location, but the causes for the existence of segment boundaries and the relationships between long-term deformation and the extent of earthquake rupture, are poorly understood. We compare permanent and seismic-cycle deformation patterns along the rupture zone of the 2010 Maule earthquake (M8.8), which ruptured 500 km of the Chile subduction margin. We analyzed the morphology of MIS-5 marine terraces using LiDAR topography and established their chronology and coeval origin with twelve luminescence ages, stratigraphy and geomorphic correlation, obtaining a virtually continuous distribution of uplift rates along the entire rupture zone. The mean uplift rate for these terraces is 0.5 m/ka. This value is exceeded in three areas, which have experienced rapid emergence of up to 1.6 m/ka; they are located at the northern, central, and southern sectors of the rupture zone, referred to as Topocalma, Carranza and Arauco, respectively. The three sectors correlate with boundaries of eight great earthquakes dating back to 1730. The Topocalma and Arauco sectors, located at the boundaries of the 2010 rupture, consist of broad zones of crustal warping with wavelengths of 60 and 90 km, respectively. These two regions coincide with the axes of oroclinal bending of the entire Andean margin and correlate with changes in curvature of the plate interface. Rapid uplift at Carranza, in turn, is of shorter wavelength and associated with footwall flexure of three crustal-scale normal faults. The uplift rate at Carranza is inversely correlated with plate coupling as well as with coseismic slip, suggesting permanent deformation may accumulate interseismically. We propose that the zones of upwarping at Arauco and Topocalma reflect changes in frictional properties of the megathrust resulting in barriers to the propagation of great earthquakes. Slip during the 1960 (M9.5) and 2010 events overlapped with the similar to 90-km-long zone of rapid uplift at Arauco; similarly, slip in 2010 and 1906 extended across the similar to 60-km-long section of the megathrust at Topocalma, but this area was completely breached by the 1730 (M similar to 9) event, which propagated southward until Carranza. Both Arauco and Topocalma show evidence of sustained rapid uplift since at least the middle Pleistocene. These two sectors might thus constitute discrete seismotectonic boundaries restraining most, but not all great earthquake ruptures. Based on our observations, such barriers might be breached during multi-segment super-cycle events. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.